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Saturday, 13 February 2021

Boxing Picks 2021- Josh Warrington vs Mauricio Lara (February 13th)

Can you really believe it has only been a couple of months since Anthony Joshua's Heavyweight title defence against Kubrat Pulev?

Honestly this whole lockdown situation has got me a little confused with times and memories over the last year and it certainly feels a lot longer than two months since we had big time Boxing back in the United Kingdom.

Life is not that back to the point where the fans are even allowed to return in limited numbers, but Boxers really do fight for their paycheques and that means big names have to get out there and perform in front of the empty stands. The last thing you want is a long lay off waiting for the fans to return, especially when there is no clear indication of when that will be, and fighters of the stature of Canelo Alvarez and Joshua have shown time doesn't stop for anyone and have been out during the pandemic.

It is the kind of decision which should inspire others and over the next two months there are countless big cards that have been put together- some top fights have also been made, although the majority of us are waiting to hear if Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury have agreed terms and a date for their Heavyweight Unification bout that will stop the UK.

That won't be happening here, at least not the first time, but it will generate a huge buzz for the sport, although judging by the BBC Panorama documentary which came out last month, not all of that will be positive. There is no such thing as bad publicity and for all the critics I could find ten people who are going to be willing to pay to watch arguably the biggest fight in the history of British Boxing.


We may hear about that by the end of the month, but the date is likely to be in June or July and there are plenty of big fights happening in the interim.


The news that Joe Smith Jr's Light Heavyweight bout against Maxim Vlasov has been postponed has removed what looked like the best fight of the weekend, but this is still a decent way to get Boxing up and running again after a quiet January. The Light Heavyweight Division hasn't had much luck with fighters either popping for failed tests or Coronavirus infecting the fighters over the last few months, but I am hoping the Smith Jr-Vlasov fight for an Interim World Title can be re-arranged fairly soon.

Richard Commey is back this week though and Joseph Diaz should have been defending his World Title, but is overweight. That bout will still go on though and DAZN has the coverage of that one for us over in the United Kingdom, but Diaz has been stripped of the Title he took from Tevin Farmer and will have plenty disappointed with him.

In the UK we have the return of Josh Warrington who is finally fighting under the Matchroom banner again having returned to the stable, but missing 2020 through the Coronavirus issues which changed momentum for so many.

Hopefully this is the start of a really solid run of weekends as we are also hopefully moving back towards a time where we can see friends and family.


Leigh Wood vs Reece Mould
The vacant British Featherweight Title is on the line on the first Matchroom card of the 2021 year and it looks like being the last chance for Leigh Wood to pick up a big Title as he returns for the first time in almost a full twelve months.

Last time Wood was in the ring he was losing a very narrow Decision to James Dickens, a fighter who has gone on to position himself for an IBF World Title shot in the months ahead. That does underline the kind of level that Leigh Wood has been operating at and he will be hoping that experience will see him have too much for Reece Mould.

The latter is unbeaten in thirteen fights, but he has actually been out of the ring longer than Leigh Wood and it should be noted that this is a significant step up for Reece Mould. It will only be the third fight that has been scheduled for more then Six Rounds and only the third time Mould will be fighting someone with a winning record (and one of the previous two was against a 1-0 fighter).

Levels have long been talked about in Boxing and I do feel we are going to see that in this one with Wood's two defeats coming against a former World Champion and another to a fighter that will go on to challenge for a World Title. The latter defeat to James Dickens certainly looks better now considering how close it was and where Dickens has taken his career.

Leigh Wood had been on a run of four stoppages in a row before the defeat to Dickens and I do have a feeling he can take Reece Mould and drown him in the later Rounds in this one too.

Perhaps there is something in Reece Mould that can see him step up, but the long lay off, the lack of experience of operating close to this level and the ability of Leigh Wood suggests the favourite can end this one inside the distance.


Zelfa Barrett vs Kiko Martinez
At 27 years old you would think the best years are ahead of Zelfa Barrett and the feeling immediately is that Matchroom are giving him a chance to really put his name out there by beating a former World Title challenger in Kiko Martinez.

The Spaniard is well known in Britain having taken on Carl Frampton (twice), Scott Quigg and Josh Warrington since 2013, although Martinez has lost all four of those fights and twice inside the distance. He has also taken on Gary Russell Jr in the years since those fights and was stopped in that one too.

Now you would have to believe that Kiko Martinez is on the downward slide in his career and at 34 years old there is plenty of miles on the clock.

That makes this not only a winnable fight for Zelfa Barrett, but another one where he can make some noise by putting his name in the spotlight. The Mancunian was last seen at Fight Camp back in August, but Barrett will need to be more active in 2021 and having this early fight gives him a chance to do that.

He won't have to go looking for Kiko Martinez and while I expect the early Rounds to be competitive, I do think Zelfa Barrett will begin to take control at the midway mark and begin to find the target regularly and accurately. Zelfa Barrett looks to have bounced back from his sole loss and three of his last four fights have ended in stoppages with two of those coming in the second half of the fight.

You do have to wonder if Kiko Martinez can be caught early having seen three of his four stoppages come in the first Five Rounds. Those have come against world class operators though and my feeling is that Barrett will have to take a little bit more time than the likes of Russell Jr, Scott Quigg and Leo Santa Cruz, but I would be a little disappointed if the British fighter is not able to force someone to step in and save Martinez over the course of a Twelve Round bout.

That is more likely to come through and wear and accumulation and I think Barrett gets the job done in the second half before moving on to bigger fights both domestically and the world level.


Josh Warrington vs Mauricio Lara
He was once under the Matchroom banner, but Josh Warrington switched to rival promoter Frank Warren as he felt he was under-appreciated by Eddie Hearn's team. After becoming a World Champion, Hearn admitted he got it wrong about the level he once felt Warrington would reach, but the Leeds man has not allowed that to worry about re-joining Matchroom.

Now it is all about chasing the other Champions and really putting a strong legacy together, but the failure to lure Can Xu into a Unification has proved very costly for Josh Warrington who returns to the ring for the first time since October 2019 and for the first time since re-joining this stable.

The failure to secure the Unification has actually led to Warrington dropping his IBF World Title after a rematch with Kid Galahad was ordered by the organisation. It does make his bargaining position a little weaker, but Eddie Hearn is convinced he can put Warrington on the right road with an active year ahead of him.

We have already heard talk about Josh Warrington potentially being back out there in April, but that does make me wonder how much of a credible threat they see in Mauricio Lara.

The Mexican fighter has a good looking 21-2 record and anyone coming out of that nation is going to be willing to put it all on the line, but a little scratch at the surface and you do wonder how much Lara has to offer at this level. All but one fight has been in Mexico, while he has never been scheduled in a Twelve Round fight and only four times signed up for a bout longer than Eight Rounds.

The Knock Out run sounds good, but Mauricio Lara is stepping up considerable levels in this fight and I think much depends on how much ring rustiness that Josh Warrington will need to shake off. I have no doubt that Lara won't be hard to find, but Warrington has under-rated power and I do think it will give him a chance to unload barrages which will be difficult for the Mexican fighter to ride out.

With the long-term thinking that his promoters and team want him back out there pretty soon, I think Josh Warrington can get the job done in this one relatively early too. The seven stoppages in a 30-0 record doesn't really suggest there is a lot of power, but most who have stood in front of Josh Warrington say he hits harder than that and Mauricio Lara might be the perfect opponent to put a statement down with a big stoppage before chasing bigger names, belts and marquee bouts.


Patrick Teixiera vs Brian Carlos Castano
The WBO World Light-Middleweight Title is on the line this weekend and it is going to be a South American battle when Brazilian Champion Patrick Teixiera defends against Argentinian Brian Carlos Castano.

The only negatives on the combined resumes is a stoppage defeat for Patrick Teixiera against Curtis Stevens in 2016, while Brian Carlos Castano had a Split Draw with Erislandy Lara in a fight he might have edged.

It has been some time since we saw Castano in the ring and his WBA Light Middleweight Title has been taken on by Lara since then, but Brian Carlos Castano will be looking to get back into the mix by winning this WBO belt.

He is a really good fighter and I do think he will have too much for Patrick Teixiera, although the Brazilian has a couple of decent wins under his belt in recent fights. Like his opponent, Teixiera has been out of the ring for some time and both have suggested they are going to square up and try and take the fight to the other.

Boxing is about levels though and Castano has looked like someone who could operate alongside the other Champions in a deep 154 Division, while the same cannot necessarily be said for Teixeira.

I don't think Patrick Teixiera will just hand the Title over to Brian Carlos Castano, but the latter has the superior skills and hits plenty hard to put the pressure on the Champion. At 31 years old this is the time for Castano to really position himself to get into the big Unification fights and to do that he needs to make a statement by ripping the title away from the Champion.

There will be some hugely fun moments to watch for the fans, but in the rivalry I expect the superior talent of the Argentinian and the clear power punching he has to come through and earn the stoppage win as Castano is restored to the ranks of Champion.


Richard Commey vs Jackson Marinez
The most recent images of Richard Commey will have come in the Two Round blowout to Teofimo Lopez in December 2019, but the 33 year old Ghanaian is pushing to return to top of a loaded 135 Division.

He will need to earn his way into a World Title shot because not many are going to give Commey a shot if he proves to have something left in the tank. Richard Commey is adamant that he should have been given more time in the defeat to Lopez which saw him lose his grip on the IBF Title that had been defended once before.

Close losses to Robert Easter Jr and Denis Shafikov shows the kind of level the big hitting Richard Commey has been operating at and the feeling is that it is a step or two above Jackson Marinez.

The latter has to be respected after deserving more than he got in the defeat to Rolando Romero back in August, but there are still questions. The main one is whether Jackson Marinez is that good or whether Rolando Romero is simply not and the feeling is that it is more about the second part of the question than the first.

Keeping Richard Commey off will be a tough task for Marinez and if the former has any real ambitions of becoming a World Champion again he has to win fights like this one. The output and heavy hands should be too much for Marinez and I think at some point the power of Richard Commey will break through and lead to a win.

Some will feel the cards will be needed, but Commey can take the judges out of the picture with some power hitting taking him through Jackson Marinez.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Zelfa Barrett to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Josh Warrington to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Brian Carlos Castano to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Commey to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)

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