We are into the second week at the Australian Open and on Day 7 the Fourth Round begins of both Singles tournaments.
There look to be some very good matches out there, although most eyes may be on the final match on Rod Laver Arena and wondering whether Novak Djokovic will be ready to compete after the injury picked up in the Third Round. He has a tough match anyway, but it would be much tougher if he is hindered, while plenty of other matches bring intrigue in both Singles draws.
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Aslan Karatsev over 36.5 games: A place in the second week of a Grand Slam is never easily secured, but both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aslan Karatsev must be wondering what the fuss is about. Both have not only worked their way into the Fourth Round, but they have dominated opponents with all three wins coming in straight sets and rarely being taxed in sets let alone matches.
As the competition has ramped up they have had it a little more difficult, but that has to be expected and even then Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aslan Karatsev can both point to wins over higher Ranked opponents as the underdog to back up their belief. The performances in Melbourne are almost certainly going to lead to both of these players hitting career best World Rankings fairly shortly and there is going to be plenty of confidence on display.
On the face of things you have to make Felix Auger-Aliassime a big favourite having already beaten two opponents Ranked outside the top 100 as Aslan Karatsev is. Add in the fact that the Canadian is a top 20 Ranked player and reached the Final of one of the warm up events run by Tennis Australia for the Open and you have to think he is going to have too much.
However Aslan Karatsev had a strong run after lockdown and is clearly being motivated by Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev who have both spoken highly about him. He might be Ranked outside the top 100, but Karatsev has played way above that level in winning three Qualifiers in Dubai and following on with three main draw wins here, and the numbers back him up.
The Russian has wins over three top 100 opponents on his way to the Fourth Round and even beat a top tenner in Diego Sebastian Schwartzman comfortably in the Third Round as he showed very little nerves or feelings of being out of his depth. His serve has proved to be a big weapon in the draw on the faster surface laid down at Melbourne Park and it has allowed Aslan Karatsev to tee off on the return to good effect.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has also served very well and both of these players are holding at least 93% of their service games played in the tournament. Like his opponent, Auger-Aliassime has been able to take more risks in the return game knowing the serve is producing the goods and he has also been breaking at a high rate (in 41% of return games compared to Karatsev's 52% mark).
These two have met twice before in Challenger events and they are at 1-1 with both matches played on hard courts. The more recent win came for Aslan Karatsev two years ago, but Felix Auger-Aliassime will feel he is a much improved player from that last match and I do expect him to get the better of this Fourth Round match.
However I am also expecting it to be highly competitive between two players serving exceptionally well and also returning very effectively. With that in mind I would be surprised if either player is blown off the court and I expect to see at least four sets being needed to decide the winner.
My edge is with Felix Auger-Aliassime, but I can't rule out Aslan Karatsev either and instead the focus is on the two players doing enough to cover the total games line. As long as the match goes four sets as I expect, I would expect them to do that with a tie-breaker or two helping put the match in a position to do so.
Dominic Thiem-Grigor Dimitrov over 38.5 games: It was the fourth time in his career that Dominic Thiem has come from 0-2 down to win a Grand Slam match and he broke the hearts of the home fans when seeing off Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round. There won't be any fans on Day 7 at the Australian Open and Dominic Thiem is facing a well rested opponent, but the the previous three times he has come from 0-2 down to win a best of five set Slam match the Austrian has won in straight sets in the next Round when having another match (the last time Dominic Thiem came from 0-2 down was in the US Open Final so he didn't have another match to play).
No one will doubt the physical capabilities of Thiem, while he was dominant in the win over Nick Krygios from the moment he saved some break points at the start of the third set. His numbers have been solid in this tournament overall as Dominic Thiem has held 90% of his service games played, while he is performing well enough on the return to keep the pressure on opponents.
He will need it all when he gets ready to face Grigor Dimitrov who was able to move through to the Fourth Round thanks to an early retirement from Pablo Carreno Busta. The Bulgarian has actually played well in the Australian Open anyway and might have won that match, but spending little time on court means Dimitrov should be the fresher player having won every set he has played in the tournament so far.
These two haven't met on the Tour since the end of the 2019 season, but Grigor Dimitrov will be boosted by the 3-2 head to head advantage he has- that becomes 3-1 when only considering their hard court matches, although Dominic Thiem becoming a Grand Slam Champion and a Grand Slam Finalist here should mean those matches provide little inferiority complex for the higher Ranked player.
Even then it will be a difficult match if Dimitrov is playing to the kind of level he has produced so far at the Australian Open having been broken once in the tournament. Grigor Dimitrov is winning 74% of points behind serve and will be looking to keep the pressure on Dominic Thiem by making sure he doesn't give too much away.
His returning numbers have been superior to Thiem's in the tournament, but not by that much and Dimitrov has not played someone who can serve as big as Nick Kyrgios can.
The head to head has been in favour of Dimtrov, but the numbers on the hard courts have been tight and I do think Dominic Thiem is considerably stronger now. That should see the US Open Champion come out on top, but I think it may need four sets to do that and we should see the players produce enough behind their serves to at least see the match go longer than the total games line may suggest.
Conditions in Melbourne should allow both players to get through some of their service games pretty quickly, and I can see at least one tie-breaker being needed which will put the match well on the way to surpassing the total set. My feeling is that Dominic Thiem will get the job done in four sets, but that may be enough for the cover.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Seeing Dusan Lajovic in front of him might make Alexander Zverev a little nervous, but I think he will be glad this is a match that is not being played on the clay courts of the French Open. These two have met twice at Roland Garros and both times the match has gone into a fourth hour and needed five sets to separate them, although Zverev has the mental edge having won both.
Conditions in Melbourne are significantly different than what we would see in Paris and Alexander Zverev has looked in imperious form. His run to the US Open Final last season would have given confidence, although I wasn't sure the German would recover very quickly from blowing a 2-0 lead in sets in the Final against Dominic Thiem.
Instead it has seemingly been a source of motivation for Alexander Zverev and he has to like his chances to come through the top half of the draw with doubts about the Novak Djokovic fitness and Dominic Thiem already being pushed to five sets once in the draw. After dropping the opening set of the 2021 Australian Open, Alexander Zverev has not only won nine sets in a row, but he has looked extremely strong in doing so.
There have been questions about the Zverev serve, the second in particular, but he has held 96% of service games played in this tournament and is winning almost 77% of points played. Those are remarkable numbers and only being backed up by breaking in just under 32% of return games played and it makes Alexander Zverev a really dangerous contender for the title.
Dusan Lajovic won't be intimidated having pushed this opponent to five sets in their two previous meetings which have both come at Grand Slam level, but I also think it has to be noted that this is a player who has been stronger on the clay than the hard courts. He has not beaten anyone Ranked higher than Number 45 at the Australian Open over the last week and the first two opponents created 31 break points against him.
He had his best returning game in the Third Round, but it feels a massive challenge taking on the Alexander Zverev serve on the form we have seen. I expect that is going to be felt by Dusan Lajovic over the course of the match, and the Serb has also spent double the time on the court compared with Alexander Zverev which could eventually be a part of the story of the match.
At the moment Alexander Zverev looks in much stronger form than Dusan Lajovic and he is more comfortable on the surface and the conditions we have seen in Melbourne. The serving difference should be clear on the day and I think Zverev can ease his way through another Round with bigger matches to come.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: Two multiple time Grand Slam Champions will be looking at the way the Woman's draw is shaping up at the Australian Open and really feel they can go all the way in 2021... But they will also appreciate the size of the task in front of them to even make the Quarter Final.
Both Naomi Osaka and Garbine Muguruza have been in fine form through the first three Rounds of the Australian Open and they have backed up strong showings in the warm up events in preparation for this tournament. Those warm up events were played at Melbourne Park too and I think that underlines the confidence and form both will feel they have ahead of a big Fourth Round match.
Being multiple time Grand Slam Champions gives players a confidence of its own, but Naomi Osaka has seemingly been the much happier on the hard courts. Her Slam wins have come at the US Open and Australian Open, while Garbine Muguruza's successes have been at the French Open and Wimbledon, and I think that is a telling factor even if the Spaniard was a Finalist here last year.
The serve is going to be the most important shot of the day with both Osaka and Muguruza producing some huge numbers behind that shot in the tournament. The edge has to be given to Naomi Osaka and I also would add in the fact that she has been performing at a higher level than Garbine Muguruza in this tournament, even though Osaka has faced the tougher level of opponent too.
Garbine Muguruza has yet to beat a player Ranked better than World Number 83 in this tournament and the pre-tournament defeat to Ashleigh Barty suggests she could find it tough to deal with the level that Osaka is going to be bring to the court. The run to the Final here in Melbourne last year will have given Muguruza some belief and she has been a player that can be hard to stop when she picks up the kind of momentum she has in this tournament, but the Spaniard is just 4-5 against top 10 players on the hard court Grand Slams.
That was 2-5 before the wins over Elina Svitolina, Kiki Bertens and Simona Halep here last year, but Naomi Osaka's confidence looks to be in a really strong place. With both players having similar successes returning the ball, I think the Naomi Osaka serve is the difference on the day in the conditions at Melbourne Park and I will look for her to produce another big victory here.
It can be argued that Naomi Osaka isn't just the best hard court player in the world, but the best player full stop and I think she will be able to earn the breaks to cover this mark.
Su-Wei Hsieh-Marketa Vondrousova over 20.5 games: Playing Su-Wei Hsieh for the first time can be something of a shock for players with the throwback game not one you see very often on the Tour these days. For the third time in her Singles career Hsieh has reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and she fought through a very difficult third set against fellow veteran Sara Errani to earn her place in the second week.
Some big names have been beaten by Su-Wei Hsieh at the Australian Open over the years and she will be looking to add another one on Day 7 when taking on the former French Open Finalist Marketa Vondrousova. However, the Czech lefty will have had the benefit of facing Hsieh last month in Abu Dhabi and the narrow three set loss might stand Vondrousova in good stead when it comes to what to accept in this one.
Marketa Vondrousova looks to be improving as she quietly moves through the draw and her numbers have been stronger in each of the last three Rounds. She may feel she needs to improve again if she is going to reach the Quarter Final here and much will depend on how well Vondrousova can look after her serve.
Her return is certainly going to give Su-Wei Hsieh some problems, but I expect the lower Ranked player to also have similar successes with her return being a stronger aspect of her game than her own serve.
Both should have moments where they get on top of the return and both are also going to have some issues looking after the serve, especially if you think of the way the match between them went last month. The two players combined for fourteen breaks that day, seven each, and needed a final set tie-breaker to separate them on the day, although Su-Wei Hsieh had the edge on the day.
Having played her once, I think Marketa Vondrousova will be able to turn the tables in this one although this may be another long match. I think the breaks of serve could see at least one set being largely uncompetitive, but it would not be a huge surprise if we need to go the distance to decide the winner again and the total games mark looks a touch low here.
The two players have only dropped a set each in the tournament so far, but I think Su-Wei Hsieh and Marketa Vondrousova can challenge one another to the point that the total games are surpassed. The underdog with the games was a little appealing, but it also would not be a surprise if the final set runs away from the losing player which makes those games less important than looking for the total games to be covered instead.
Serena Williams v Aryna Sabalenka: It hasn't been often that you could back Serena Williams to win a Grand Slam match at odds against, and even rarer to be able to do that before the Quarter Final, but that is the case on Day 7 at the Australian Open. She takes on Aryna Sabalenka who has backed up her really strong end to the 2020 season by looking incredibly sharp to open 2021 too.
The Belarusian has taken over from Victoria Azarenka as the top player from that nation, but there is pressure on Sabalenka who has never been beyond the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam. Beating arguably the greatest woman's player of all time to do so only adds to that pressure and there will be plenty of big hitting coming back her way in this one.
Strong serving has helped Aryna Sabalenka negotiate her way through the draw without dropping a set and she has only faced four break points in each match so far. It has not been easy to break the serve and it has allowed Sabalenka to kick on and power her returns to move into winning positions in matches.
All of those aspects will be challenged by Serena Williams who was not at her best in the Third Round, but who has been looking in good shape in the three matches played in Melbourne this year. The former World Number 1 is still looking to match Margaret Court's record for Singles Slams won, and the Serena Williams first serve could be key to the outcome of this match having won 80% of those points in the tournament so far.
That is a considerably higher mark than Aryna Sabalenka has been able to produce, but the Belarusian has the superior second serve numbers and the key for Serena Williams is making sure she gets plenty of first serves in play. The American has been returning well and she has looked in good health having not played the Semi Final against Ashleigh Barty in the warm up event for the first Grand Slam of the season.
It feels like the player who serves the best on the day will be able to win this one, but the experience edge is with Serena Williams and I think that is going to be the factor that determines the outcome of this one. Aryna Sabalenka has admitted that she wants to be calmer on the court, but this will be a real test of that demeanour and in a tough match it could see her just become a little addled at times.
Serena Williams has had the better returning numbers in the tournament and I will back her in a rare spot as an underdog to win this match.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Aslan Karatsev Over 36.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem-Grigor Dimitrov Over 38.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Su-Wei Hsieh-Marketa Vondrousova Over 20.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Serena Williams @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 34-31, - 2.44 Units (130 Units Staked, - 1.88% Yield)
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