At some point we will be back with some normality in life, but I am grateful that the NFL was able to complete their season and are about to have a Super Bowl played in front of close to 30,000 fans, while you can only praise the Australian authorities for their success in containing the Covid-19 outbreak for much of the last year and being able to put on the Australian Open.
Back in March/April 2020 it was a really tough time for sports fans with all being shut down around the globe- without a doubt I appreciated all of the efforts to get those back up and running even if everyone didn't agree with doing that.
It is for selfish reasons- I honestly feel like sports has always given me a distraction in general life that can just help you shut out issues that are affecting you in your day to day and there really isn't a better drama being produced by Netflix/Sky/Amazon than the unpredictability of a live sporting event. For a long time I used to make a passing comment of 'I don't know what people who don't like sports do with their spare time' and back in March/April it became clear how important it can be.
In saying all that, I can understand the concerns a community like the one in Victoria, Australia would have been feeling ahead of the arrival of Tennis players from around the globe. While some of the more negative reactions from the players gained some traction in the press, the majority have been happy to comply with the rules and we are now close to having the first Grand Slam of the season being played.
With fans... And hopefully without any community transmission of Covid-19 cases.
There have been one or two worries, but for the main part it looks like Tennis Australia have got into a good position to run the tournament which is three weeks further into the calendar than we have come to expect. It does mean there has been some moving around of tournaments, but both Tours are hoping to be back on a more recognisable schedule when we reach the European clay court season in April, one that I very much missed last year.
I have not made more than the two Tennis Picks so far in 2021 and that was largely down to the way the tournaments have worked out- early events after the break between seasons have tended to be unpredictable anyway (I usually begin my main Picks from the Australian Open in each season) and this past week the tournaments being played in Melbourne came after many players had bee quarantined and who were getting back on the court.
My opinion is that this week offers us up a good indication of what kind of form players are coming in with, although for many it could be the first hard court action since the last Australian Open in January 2020 (when life felt extremely different).
The Australian Open can always spring up surprises because of the place it has on the calendar, but this year it feels a little more difficult to call. However the leading names on both Tours should be there or thereabouts in two weeks time and I am looking forward to having a little more consistent year watching the sport as the Tours move in a fashion we have become accustomed to seeing.
In this thread I am going to have a few thoughts about the two Singles draws and any Picks I may have from the Outright Markets.
Day 1 Picks should be out on Sunday with the tournament being played through the night for us in the United Kingdom (so beginning on Sunday night at the same time as the Super Bowl is being played) and Day 2 Picks should quickly follow with the First Round set to be played over those two days.
Men's Australian Open 2021
In normal years the Australian Open comes around at the start of a new calendar year and it does feel like we have had to wait quite a while since the last Grand Slam had been played.
With all of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 outbreak last year, the Tennis Tour placed two Grand Slams at the end of the season and so this is the third Slam played in five months.
Some things haven't changed though and that is namely the position Novak Djokovic sits in the draw- the Number 1 Seed is not only the favourite to win the Australian Open, but he is the defending Champion and will be looking for a first Grand Slam title since last January having come up short in New York and Paris.
Motivation is extremely high and Novak Djokovic has never disguised the fact that he wants to end his career with more Slams than his two rivals Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. After winning in Melbourne last year it felt like a matter of time before Djokovic would at least match those two players, but the cancellation of Wimbledon and his poor decision which led to a Disqualification at the US Open have proved costly and even more so after losing the French Open Final to Nadal in a one-sided Final.
Some have suggested that Djokovic has been given a tough draw this year, but I think he looks a relatively safe bet to reach the Fourth Round at an event he has won eight times including in each of the last two seasons. At that stage there is a prospective dark horse standing in his way in the form of Stan Wawrinka or Milos Raonic, but you would consider Djokovic a strong favourite if at his best with those two (a former Champion and a former Semi Finalist) not producing the same type of consistency as the World Number 1.
The most realistic threat in the Quarter has to be Alexander Zverev who reached the US Open Final in 2020. However we have seen Zverev falter early in Grand Slams in the past and he has been beaten by Novak Djokovic twice in the last three months including at the ATP Cup being played in the week prior to the Australian Open so it would be a surprise if the defending Champion does not reach the final four.
A loaded Second Quarter in the draw has former Grand Slam Champions and Grand Slam Finalists littered through it, while a number of younger players are also looking to make a breakthrough on the Tour.
Dominic Thiem is the top Seed in the section and he will be plenty confident having won the US Open a few months ago in the same year he reached the Australian Open Final and pushed Djokovic all the way. The Austrian has had plenty of time to get over his exploits at the US Open and he looks mentally tough enough to deal with the additional pressures which come after winning a maiden Slam title and joining an elite list of players.
I am a fan of Thiem and his development on the hard courts means he is a threat to win three of the four Grand Slams that are played every season.
However this is a tough section as I mentioned already and I am also extremely excited about the possibility of a Third Round clash between Thiem and the enigmatic home favourite Nick Kyrgios. The lack of competitive tennis over the last several months has to be a concern for Kyrgios fans, but the talent is not to be disputed and I think he will be highly motivated to have a strong run in Melbourne over the next fortnight which makes him dangerous.
There are a number of Seeds in this section who will have felt they could have a serious run in the tournament if they had been given solid draws, but Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta and Denis Shapovalov are no sure things to get out of the First Round let alone go deep into the second week.
Those three players face Marin Cilic (a former US Open Champion), Kei Nishikori (a former US Open Runner Up) and Jannick Sinner (an up and coming super talent on the Tour) in the First Round. The two former players mentioned are not the forces they were as they try and recover some form and fitness, but the winner of the Shapovalov-Sinner match might actually end up being the Quarter Final opponent for what is most likely to be Dominic Thiem.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is a former US Open Quarter Finalist and has shown he can play on all surfaces and Felix Auger-Aliassime is another big talent who will feel they can't be dismissed, but the bottom half of the Second Quarter looks highly competitive. That could mean whoever gets through to the Quarter Final is perhaps battle fatigued, especially after quarantine rules before the tournament, and Dominic Thiem does look the player most likely to make his mark on the form displayed over the last thirteen months.
I have to admit I am a big fan of the two Russian players that are the leading names in the Third Quarter of the draw- the top two Seeds in the section are Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev and I think the friends could be set for a Quarter Final match up in a few days time.
The main threats to oppose each player look to be Robert Bautista Agut and Filip Krajinovic who are solid hard court players that can bridge the gap to the very best when at their best.
Roberto Bautista Agut is an all court player who has reached the Fourth Round at every Slam on the Tour while he was a Quarter Finalist at the Australian Open in 2019. It will be interesting to see how he deals with what is almost certainly going to be a negative reaction after a video was leaked of him complaining about quarantine conditions, but he can be solid enough to beat opponents who are perhaps not finding their best form.
His performances at the ATP Cup have been nothing to write home about though, while Rublev and Medvedev look to be in very good form based on their appearances in that event so far.
Filip Krajinovic is playing the best tennis of his career over the last couple of seasons, but he has yet to make an impact on at the Grand Slam level that he would have liked and so it is hard to look beyond Rublev and Medvedev for the Semi Final spot out of this Quarter.
If we do get to that Quarter Final, Daniil Medvedev will be a clear favourite having won his four previous matches against Andrey Rublev and in largely dominant fashion. He is the top Seed in the section and the player most likely to come out of this Quarter of the draw too.
At the start of the year you would have had many looking to back Rafael Nadal to win his second Australian Open and become the first men's player in the Open Era to win each of the Grand Slams at least twice. That would only add to what is already a wonderful legacy in the sport and might have underlined his status as the Greatest Of All Time, but a back injury over the last week has meant the Spaniard has not taken part in the ATP Cup as expected.
There is an opportunity for Rafael Nadal to work his way into the Australian Open assuming he is ready to go in the First Round, and I am not sure he will be challenged too much even if not at 100% until he gets through to the Quarter Final.
Before that stage I would expect Rafael Nadal to beat Laslo Djere, Michael Mmoh, Daniel Evans and Alex De Minaur and that would then make the 2009 Champion a dangerous prospect for any potential Quarter Final opponent.
The leading contender to do that has to be Stefanos Tsitsipas who reached the Semi Final in 2019, although he has not reached the Fourth Round of any hard court Grand Slam since then. There will be a huge amount of support for Tsitsipas, but his path through to the Quarter Final looks a lot more haphazard than Nadal's, while there are two big hitting threats that will feel they have the tools to beat the Greek star.
Both Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini are 24 years old, and look to be improving on the Tour. The former has perhaps not kicked on as much as he would have liked and Khachanov has not been beyond the Third Round at either the Australian Open or the US Open, but Matteo Berrettini has shown considerable form at the ATP Cup and reached the Semi Final at the 2019 US Open.
His style could be very dangerous if finding his best form and I do think the Italian has every chance of upsetting the odds through the draw. Both of his previous defeats to Stefanos Tsitsipas came at a time when Matteo Berrettini was not playing as well as he is now and they were close matches anyway.
The First Round match against Kevin Anderson is a tough one on paper and just reduces some of the enthusiasm for Matteo Berrettini, but if he is able to work his way through that match I do think the draw could open up for him. He has won all three previous matches against Karen Khachanov and I do think Berrettini could be a tough player to stop if he builds his confidence through the draw.
At his best you would have to favour Rafael Nadal, but the doubts about his injury and how ready he is to compete at 100% might just leave it open for a surprise Semi Finalist in Matteo Berrettini.
I expect Stefanos Tsitsipas to have his backers, but he is just as likely to have an early exit in the tournament as he is in reaching the business end of the week. He has been beaten in the first week in five of the last eight Grand Slams he has played and Tsitsipas can't take anything for granted with the way the draw has shaped up for him which could leave the door open for the Number 9 Seed to have the most 'surprising' run in the Men's tournament.
Since Rafael Nadal won the Australian Open in 2009, only three men have won the title in Melbourne and one of those won't be playing this year.
Roger Federer is not in Australia, while his compatriot Stan Wawrinka is not the player he was and it would arguably be a much bigger surprise than when he won his first Grand Slam title if he was to do it again in 2021.
That leaves World Number 1 Novak Djokovic who has won the title eight times here before and looks set to make it nine in a row. He is still the top hard court player in the world and while I think the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev are getting closer, Novak Djokovic is the man to beat with Rafael Nadal struggling.
Novak Djokovic has won the last two Australian Open titles and regularly is given plenty of support in Melbourne where the conditions and playing surface seem almost perfect for him.
Dominic Thiem is a likely Semi Final opponent for Djokovic, who could have to beat the two names mentioned to win the title here, and the US Open Champion pushed the World Number 1 to five sets in the Final here last year. However that is the latest setback against Novak Djokovic on a hard court and even the fact he has won three of the last four against this opponent may not be enough for Dominic Thiem to get the better of him here.
I still think the Austrian is good enough to get out of his Quarter of the draw having reached the Final of both hard court Grand Slam events last season and the path through to the Semi Final looks to have worked for him.
After helping Russia win the ATP Cup, I do think Daniil Medvedev could be ready to go all the way at the Australian Open and win a maiden Grand Slam title. The expected faster conditions shouldn't bother him too much having had success on the relatively quick New York City and I expect to see Medvedev at the business end of the week. He should be able to get through the Third Quarter of the draw and a small interest on Matteo Berrettini to win the Fourth Quarter may be warranted at the prices on offer.
I have to say that Rafael Nadal looks like he is feeling strong even though he pulled out of the warm up events with a back issue, but he has regularly had issues in Melbourne since winning the title in 2009 and Matteo Berrettini's form in the ATP Cup shows an improving player that may be ready to reach another hard court Grand Slam Semi Final after doing the same at the US Open.
Women's Australian Open 2021
The decision to expand the amount of results being considered when putting the World Rankings together is the reason Ashleigh Barty will be going into her home Grand Slam as the World Number 1 and top Seed.
With the pandemic raging and travel being an issue, Ashleigh Barty decided to skip the Tour after the tournament in Doha in February and she does believe it was a decision that was the right one for her. The lack of competitive tennis might be problematic, but Barty has played well in the warm up tournament for the Australian Open and she will be comfortable in Melbourne having reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final in the last two years in this tournament.
In between those runs Ashleigh Barty has won the French Open and there will be a confidence that this is a tournament that can be won with the Woman's Tour remaining wide open at the very top. Like many of the Quarters in the draw, there seem to be dangers lurking around every corner and I do think Barty is not going to be able to get by if her tennis is less than close to at its very best which is why her run in the warm up tournaments have been so encouraging.
The biggest threats may come from fellow Seeds Elise Mertens and Karolina Pliskova and both are former Semi Finalists in Melbourne. However the two players can be a little inconsistent and both have some potentially difficult early matches that could see them exit before Ashleigh Barty has to face them anyway.
Even with the lack of competitive tennis over the last several months, I think Ashleigh Barty has been given an opportunity to go very deep into the Australian Open once again.
The Second Quarter looks like it could be a lot of fun at the Australian Open with defending Champion Sofia Kenin, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Azarenka, Johanna Konta and Maria Sakkari all likely to enter the tournament and feel like they could go all the way.
Sofia Kenin reached the French Open Final last year too and she will be feeling like her effort will always reward her, while Victoria Azarenka has won the Australian Open twice before. The Belarusian has actually missed three of the last four tournaments played in Melbourne and was beaten in the First Round in the other, but Azarenka reached the US Open Final in 2020 and looked to be back to close to her best in New York.
Elina Svitolina has reached the Quarter Final in four of the last six Grand Slams she has played, but this is a player that is hard to trust to win these big tournaments. There is a clear panic in her play when she has gotten close to winning a Grand Slam and I think that is likely to let her down at some point in this tournament too.
I have to admit I have been surprised by the development of Maria Sakkari, but she still looks short of some levels to win a major like this one and Johanna Konta has not been past the Second Round in the last three Australian Open tournaments since reaching back to back Quarter Finals here.
This illustrates that while these players are likely to provide one of the Semi Finalists, it is hard to really trust any of them with real confidence.
A dark horse like Kaia Kanepi and Jennifer Brady might be able to break through with the right results around them, but an open Quarter looks like being a fun one to watch rather than selecting which player is capable of winning five matches to earn a Semi Final spot.
Naomi Osaka heads up the Third Quarter and, barring a loss of focus or injury, I think this is the player that will competing for Grand Slam titles on a regular basis. The WTA Tour actually has some extremely talented youngsters that are breaking through all the time, but Naomi Osaka is a three time Grand Slam Champion at 23 years old and with the development of sports science she is capable of quadrupling that total before she calls time on her career.
Yes, I am extremely high on Osaka and her capabilities on a tennis court.
She has won the US Open twice already and is the defending Champion there, while the other Grand Slam title came in Melbourne. It is clear that Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts, but my one concern for this player is that she has played in seventeen Grand Slams and only reached the second week five times. Fair enough it is some conversion rate to produce three titles from those five appearances in the second week of a Grand Slam, but you do have to say that Naomi Osaka is potentially vulnerable early in any Slam she plays in.
And this year Naomi Osaka has some very awkward potential matches before she gets into the Fourth Round which makes it hard to back her. It begins immediately in the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and an early exit will only offer real encouragement to some of the other players in this Quarter of the draw.
The one that looks to stand out is Petra Kvitova who has played her best tennis at the Australian Open in the last two seasons with a Final and a Quarter Final run in 2019 and 2020. Last year she also reached the French Open Semi Final as the Czech lefty looks to add to the two Wimbledon titles she has won and I think a bit more fortune could have led to a title for Petra Kvitova.
I do think Petra Kvitova can work her way through the draw and she is certainly capable of reaching another Semi Final at this tournament.
A player like Bianca Andreescu will be competing for Grand Slam titles throughout her career as long as she stays healthy, but the long lay off with an injury and the precautionary withdrawal from the warm up events may leave her short. Garbine Muguruza is also in this section of the draw and reached the Final of the Australian Open last year, but the Spaniard is someone who blows hot and cold which makes it hard to really believe in her.
The performances in the warm up events being played ahead of the Australian Open are encouraging, but Garbine Muguruza has only reached the second week in four of the last eleven Grand Slam events she has played.
Her draw doesn't look the worst, but Angelique Kerber could be waiting in the Third Round and I do feel that Petra Kvitova may be in the best position to take advantage of the way the section has panned out.
There are going to be plenty of people tuning into the Australian Open and wondering if this is the tournament in which Serena Williams finally levels the record set by Margaret Court for most Grand Slam Singles titles won. When she won here in Melbourne in 2017 it seemed inevitable that not only would Williams level the record, but push past it, although at the time no one knew that she was playing while pregnant with her first child.
It meant taking some time off from the Tour, but Serena Williams returned in May 2018 and she has reached four Grand Slam Finals since then, although fallen short of winning another title each time.
The window is closing now with some talented younger, hungry players on the Tour who are no longer intimidated by the American former World Number 1. A withdrawal in the warm up event for the Australian Open is a slight concern for Serena who admitted she would not have played in Melbourne if the tournament had not been delayed, but I think the draw looks decent enough to get through the early Rounds.
Laura Siegemund is a battler and could cause one or two problems in the First Round, but the bigger challenges are down the line with the expectation that Serena Williams will have to deal with a big hitting, in form Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round.
Iga Swiatek, the French Open Champion, and Elena Rybakina are two other young players in this Quarter of the draw who will feel they are capable enough on the hard courts to go very far in the first Grand Slam of the 2021 tournament. And all of this is without mentioning the Number 2 Seeded Simona Halep who has played in two Quarter Finals, a Semi Final and a Final in the Australian Open.
I do think both Swiatek and Halep are perhaps better suited to the hard courts here rather than the ones used at the US Open and both are amongst the leading contenders to win the French Open in May. Both players will feel they can challenge anyone they face in the tournament, while Elena Rybakina is developing at a rapid rate and a potential Winner here if finding her best form.
With Rybakina it feels like the draw could have been better as the likes of Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep could blunt some of her attacking prowess on this kind of hard court, but she will learn from the experience and it should stand her in good stead going forward.
The same could be said for Aryna Sabalenka who is trying to show more patience rather than hitting the ball harder and harder until she breaks through someone's defences. It can't always work at the top, top level to not have other paces to your game, but I do think she is learning and it might be another year before the Belarusian is able to challenge for a Grand Slam title.
Serena Williams should have a good run here, but I do think one of those players mentioned will be able to get the better of her in this Quarter. If Aryna Sabalenka can hold herself together between the ears she is a real threat, while Simona Halep will be confident having had some considerable successes in Melbourne in the past.
I am a big fan of Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina too, but I think both may cause problems but ultimately find someone a little better than them on the day.
The last time Australia were able to celebrate a home winner of the Women's tournament was over forty years ago, but 2021 could see that all change.
While it is hard to ignore the long lay off Ashleigh Barty has had from the Tour, her performances this past week in the lead up to the Australian Open and the way the draw has worked out makes the World Number 1 my favourite to win the tournament this week.
I think Barty is a very good player, and she has improved her performance in the Australian Open in each of the last three seasons while going down to a very narrow defeat to eventual Champion Sofia Kenin in the Semi Final in January 2020. This is a player who left the Tennis Tour to take up professional cricket and then returned to eventually reach the top of the mountain so even the effective year off from the Tour is not enough for me to think the home favourite is going to be adversely affected here.
Ashleigh Barty looks to have been placed in a relatively decent portion of the draw and I think she can pick up some momentum in each passing Round to go on and win her second Grand Slam title.
Whoever comes out of the Second Quarter will be a danger, while I also think Petra Kvitova looks a big price if she is able to find her way through the early Rounds. She could benefit from the likes of Naomi Osaka and Garbine Muguruza potentially not even making it to a Quarter Final against her and Petra Kvitova has reached the Final and the Quarter Final in the last two years in Melbourne.
Her head to head with Muguruza is encouraging, while both defeats to Naomi Osaka could easily have gone Petra Kvitova's way and I think she can have a good run here.
The Czech lefty has fallen towards the business end of this Grand Slam in the last couple of years, but Petra Kvitova looks a big price to win the Third Quarter of the draw.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Outright @ 2.37 Sky Bet (4 Units)
Dominic Thiem to Win Second Quarter @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev to Win Third Quarter @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini to Win Fourth Quarter @ 13.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)
Ashleigh Barty to Win First Quarter @ 3.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova to Win Third Quarter @ 8.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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