Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2021 (February 11th)

It was an extremely disappointing day for the Tennis Picks on Day 3 at the Australian Open, even if a couple of late winners ended the slump.

This happens in a Grand Slam tournament, but the key is to bounce back effectively and to not get too down after a poor day in the office. It happens, but the process has to be trusted and that means avoiding some of the mistakes I did make on Day 3.

I will have to be better and that will begin from Day 4 as the Second Round is completed.

In the main the Outright Selections have progressed through the draw, but Petra Kvitova was the first to fall in an upset loss in the Second Round. That is a disappointment, but the progress made by Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem is encouraging and others will also be looking to move into the Third Round when playing their matches on Day 4.

It is a long tournament and one that will have twists and turns, but at this moment those Outright Picks that remain involved in Melbourne are showing encouraging signs.

On another note most sports fans will know how much the experience has changed for those viewing on television and those playing over the last several months. With no fans in attendance, sometimes you can feel that sports matches are lacking intensity at times and it has also meant some of the drama of a sporting event has been missing.

It is not the case at the Australian Open this year, and the limited fans in attendance made themselves heard loud and clear in the Night Session across Melbourne Park. It helped that two home players were involved in some outstanding matches, but the atmosphere for the Nick Kyrgios win over Ugo Humbert was absolutely amazing and really made me feel so much better about things.

They certainly dragged Krygios through the match when he might have otherwise not had the fight without anyone to entertain in the stands and I do think it will be encouraging to other tournaments and sports around the world. Right now we are in the midst of a dark period, but there is light through the vaccines being developed and the hope is that the atmosphere we have seen on Day 3 will become the norm again sooner rather than later across events around the world.

All credit to the players for engaging the crowd in the manner they did and for the first time in a long time I think it was a sporting event that I really enjoyed to the full extent I should do. Even the football being played in the Premier League has not felt the same without the atmosphere coming down from the stands and I can't wait for the day we are allowed back to enjoy all these sporting events like we were twelve months ago.

Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Michael Mmoh: There are some concerns about the Rafael Nadal back at the start of the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season and we are yet to really know how he is feeling. A comfortable win in the First Round will have given his fans encouragement, but Rafael Nadal will be the first to admit that his challengers will be much more difficult the deeper he gets into the Australian Open draw.

It has now been twelve years since Nadal won the title here in Melbourne, although he has had a number of good runs before coming up short. His overall hard court numbers remain really strong and the performance in the First Round will make the Spaniard a big favourite to earn his place in the Third Round without too many scares.

That isn't trying to disrespect Michael Mmoh, but the 23 year old has largely been operating at the Challenger level and he has dropped down to Number 177 in the World Rankings. His career. best Ranking is only Number 96 and Mmoh's two defeats at the Australian and US Opens last season came in relatively straight-forward fashion against a couple of top 30 Ranked players.

Three Qualifying wins will have given Michael Mmoh confidence, but this is a huge step up for a player who will be put under pressure in each and every service game played. The American does have a couple of wins over top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts and one of those was against an opponent Ranked inside the top 20, but the numbers show that Michael Mmoh holds less than 67% of his service games in those matches and struggles to break serve.

It is a poor combination to have against someone like Rafael Nadal who won't want to expend any extra energy to work his way through to the Third Round. That should mean a focused player on the court and Rafael Nadal has a perfect 12-0 record against players Ranked outside the top 100 when meeting them at the Australian Open.

The pressure is clearly on those opponents with Rafael Nadal holding 90% of his own service games and breaking in over 45% of return games played against those opponents.

I do have to note that Rafael Nadal would have covered this mark only seven times in those twelve wins over players Ranked outside the top 100 at the Aussie Open, but Michael Mmoh does look like he will be overmatched. The underdog has played four top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts at a Grand Slam level and he has completed fourteen sets in those matches- of those, Michael Mmoh has lost six by either a 6-1 or 6-2 score and I think doing that here will set Rafael Nadal well on the way to the cover.

Michael Mmoh has also failed to cover this mark in two of those four defeats and only avoided that being three out of four by taking the first set in his defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut last year at the Australian Open. That four set loss came by a nine game margin, but I don't expect Rafael Nadal to be as loose as his compatriot was to give up a set and he should find the breaks to cover and move into the Third Round again.

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: For many players that have been stuck in hard quarantine it has been a difficult time as they have struggled to prepare for the first Grand Slam of the season. It isn't just an excuse, but I do think the mental pressures have been difficult to deal with and in the early Rounds it may just be a battle to stick around in the tournament.

Some players have tried to thrive in the unfortunate conditions they have been dealing with and that is by raising their social profile by offering an insight into how they were trying to keep themselves occupied while waiting for clearance to leave their hotels. One of those was Pablo Cuevas and it may have led to a new set of fans ready to back the Uruguayan.

However that is not likely to be the case in the Second Round after seeing off veteran Andreas Seppi on Tuesday. Pablo Cuevas didn't do anything wrong in the four set win, but the home crowd will be firmly behind Australian Alex De Minaur who was a comfortable winner over a former two time Australian Open Quarter Finalist Tennys Sandgren.

The result was an impressive one, although Sandgren did mention that he felt his preparation was not the best having been in a tough quarantine and having limited time to get ready for the opening match. Ultimately that is not the fault of Alex De Minuar who has improved to 8-1 in his career when playing an opponent Ranked outside the top 50 in a hard court Grand Slam with the victory in the First Round.

He has already won a title in 2021 and Alex De Minuar will look at the two defeats at the ATP Cup and acknowledge those have come against top players on the Tour. In matches against those lower down the the World Rankings Alex De Minaur has tended to show off his strong returning skills and that backs up what is a decent enough serve to get into a position to win those matches.

In general the Alex De Minaur serve is solid and he should be too good for Pablo Cuevas, although this veteran has to be respected at all times. The best performances do tend to come on the clay courts though and Pablo Cuevas wins under 40% of his hard court matches against top 50 Ranked players.

It has been a real problem for Pablo Cuevas in the Australian and US Opens and he is just 1-11 against top 50 Ranked opponents in those Grand Slams through his career. His serve becomes vulnerable as Cuevas struggles with his return in those matches and I do think that is going to be a real issue for him in this Second Round match with the way he looks to be lining up against Alex De Minaur.

I would not be surprised if at least one or two sets are competitive, but at some point I would expect Alex De Minuar to go on a run of games which gives him every chance of covering this Second Round handicap.

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: We are beginning to see some of the best tennis of her career and Ekaterina Alexandrova has been rewarded by being Seeded for the Australian Open. The Covid-19 outbreak would have slowed down some of the momentum of a player who reached her peak career World Ranking just a month before the Tour was postponed and hastily re-arranged, but the Russian has played well in the early part of 2021.

Ekaterina Alexandrova is a pretty good all court player, but the hard courts might be her favourite and she will be looking to match her Third Round run at the Australian Open in 2020. A relatively straight-forward win in the First Round will have given Alexandrova some confidence that she can have a strong run in Melbourne, but the competition ramps up rapidly in the next couple of days.

Assuming she can get through this match, Ekaterina Alexandrova looks to be on a collision course with Number 1 Seed and home favourite Ashleigh Barty, but she can't afford to look too far ahead. A strong first serve should at least make things a touch easier for Alexandrova in this match, while she has a steady return which will give her a chance to get her teeth into those games too and the Russian is rightly favoured.

In saying that she has to be careful of Barbora Krejcikova who has long been one of the stronger Doubles players on the Tour, but who has hit a new career high Singles World Ranking before the start of the Australian Open. 2020 was a strong year for the player from the Czech Republic who will be inspired by the other talented players that perform for that nation and the numbers were actually very similar to the ones that Ekaterina Alexandrova produced.

That is namely a strong first serve and a decent 43% of points won on the return, although it should be noted that those have largely come against lower quality players than the one she is going to be seeing in the Second Round. Barbora Krejcikova is just 2-8 on the hard courts when facing a top 50 Ranked player in her career and the numbers slip across the board to underline the record.

Both wins have actually come in 2021 and that includes her three set First Round win in this tournament, but it will be a difficult test in trying to get the better of Ekaterina Alexandrova. Thirteen months ago it was the latter who beat Krejcikova in the Second Round in Melbourne and it came in a dominant performance for Alexandrova who held a big edge in the second serve percentage points won that day.

In recent years Ekaterina Alexandrova has dominated matches in which she has faced players outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings on the hard courts. That includes a 4-1 record in that situation in 2021 and Alexandrova has tended to find the breaks of serve which will get her in a position to cover this handicap even if the match goes into a third set.

There is a very slight edge in favour of Alexandrova in the return department in this match and I think that is important to frank the win from last year and see her move into the Third Round again at the expense of Barbora Krejcikova.

Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 games v Heather Watson: She came through for us a couple of days ago, but there were still some concerning quotes coming from Heather Watson who admitted she came close to missing out on the tournament. A leg spasm would have been the cause for that and Watson has admitted that hard quarantine has also taken a toll on her, but the battling quality to get past Kristyna Pliskova will stand her in good stead.

The last remaining British player in the Women's draw will need to raise her level again if she is going to progress in Melbourne to the Third Round for only the second time at the Australian Open and the first time since 2013. Heather Watson does have some solid hard court numbers in her career, but there is a real drop off when she faces top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface and it has particularly been the case in Grand Slam events in Melbourne and New York City.

Those Grand Slams played on the hard courts have seen Heather Watson produce a 1-11 record when playing top 50 Ranked opponents and her second serve has been attacked in those matches. Add in the poor returning numbers and you can begin to see why Watson has been beaten so comfortably in her last three matches in this spot.

The feeling is that Anett Kontaveit is going to one of those players that has a bit too much for Heather Watson despite the narrow 3-2 lead the Estonian holds in their career meetings. That record becomes 2-1 in favour of Kontaveit on the hard courts, while the last two matches have seen Anett Kontaveit dominate the matches.

Over the years it does have to be said that Anett Kontaveit has flattered to deceive at times, but her solid First Round win over Aliaksandra Sasnovich will be encouraging. Her sole Grand Slam Quarter Final appearance did come at the Australian Open in 2020 and over the last couple of years Anett Kontaveit has shown she is a solid hard court player with good numbers both behind the serve and return.

Since January 2019, Anett Kontaveit has a perfect 8-0 record against players Ranked outside the top 50 in the hard court Grand Slam matches she has played. The number that has been particularly impressive is the 52% of return points won and Kontaveit would have covered this margin of handicap in seven of those wins.

In the same period Kontaveit is 25-1 against players outside the top 50 on the hard courts and I do think the Estonian is going to get the better of this match. In the head to head with Heather Watson we have seen that Anett Kontaveit has been able to control the tempo with the strong serving she has produced and that does put pressure on the British player to respond.

This is a big mark, but Anett Kontaveit can find the breaks of serve to cover.

Danielle Collins-Karolina Pliskova over 21.5 games: One of the best looking matches in the Second Round at the Australian Open features two big hitting players that are Ranked inside the top 40 and who have plenty of successes on the hard courts. It will be the second time in the Australian summer that Danielle Collins and Karolina Pliskova are playing one another and the feeling is that this one will just as close as the 7-6, 7-6 win the American underdog secured over Pliskova earlier this month.

On that day both Collins and Pliskova put together a strong serving day, although the latter will feel she had the better opportunities to break serve and was a little unfortunate on the day. Ultimately Danielle Collins played the bigger points better than Karolina Pliskova, but this match should be just as tight and competitive and I think it could be one that is decided by the smallest of margins.

I know she is not everybody's cup of tea, but I really like Danielle Collins and her attitude is not one that grates on me as it has sometimes seemingly done on other people. She has a big game and if she is serving well she will be tough to beat, and a tight defeat to Serena Williams shows that Collins is rarely overawed.

Further evidence to that is the fact that Danielle Collins has a solid 5-7 record against top 10 players on the hard courts in her career and she is a former Australian Open Semi Finalist. Her numbers have been decent enough in those top 10 battles and Collins will feel she can challenge Karolina Pliskova who can sometimes struggle with her return of serve.

Karolina Pliskova was a dominant First Round winner, but this is a player who is heavily reliant on her serve and using that to build the pressure on opponents. I do think that has proven to be a solid advantage for Pliskova down the years, but the limited return game is the main reason she has yet to secure a Grand Slam title and it is one that will give Danielle Collins an opportunity for a second upset over this top 10 player in the space of a few days.

In something of a surprise, Karolina Pliskova only holds a 15-12 record in hard court Grand Slam matches against players Ranked inside the top 50, but she still wins a huge amount of first serve points. This feels like it could be a serve orientated match and one that may easily need three sets to separate them on the day and I think backing the two players to put enough strong serving together to cover the total games mark is the play.

Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 games v Alison Van Uytvanck: On the face of things you would think someone like Yulia Putintseva would not be the most effective hard court player, but you should not judge a book by its cover. The Kazakhstan World Number 28 is ready to reach a new career high and the performances have been underlined by strong movement and an ability to turn defence into attack very quickly while using the pace that comes through the court on the hard court surface.

Her numbers have been pretty decent and Yulia Putintseva gets more out of her serve than you may expect, although she is one of the players that were involved in the hard quarantine which has played havoc with some of the preparation for the first Grand Slam of the season. The come from behind win over a former Grand Slam Champion Sloane Stephens in the First Round will be a big help to Putintseva with the additional time spent on the court and she is facing an opponent in the Second Round that she has dominated in their previous pro Tour meetings.

Alison Van Uytvanck has a decent record on the hard courts which will have to be respected, but she can struggle for consistency and the step up in level of opponent has proven tough for the Belgian to deal with. While the overall hard court numbers are decent, Van Uytvanck is only 15-39 when it comes to facing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface in her career.

That becomes 0-5 in the hard court Grand Slams in Melbourne and New York City and Alison Van Uytvanck has been unable to defend her second serve while producing really poor returning in those matches. Winning less than 30% of return points across those five matches makes it very difficult to win matches against the better players on the Tour, although I do think it should be noted that four of those five matches have come against top 20 Ranked players.

Yulia Putintseva may not be at that level, but in their three head to head matches she has dominated the return of serve to produce three pretty comfortable wins. The serve will give Alison Van Uytvanck a chance if she is willing to try and take an aggressive approach, but the Belgian has not really been able to get into the Putintseva first serve in those previous matches and I think the favourite is going to have too much for her in the Second Round here.

At times there will be switches in momentum which is the worry about backing Yulia Putintseva to cover relatively big marks as a favourite, but I think she will be the one who has the most success when it comes to the return of serve. That should lead to the breaks needed to get past this mark and I think Putintseva will be a tough out for any player she faces in Melbourne.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Danille Collins-Karolina Pliskova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Fabio Fognini - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sofia Kenin @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cori Gauff + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 16-17, - 5.48 Units (66 Units Staked, - 8.30% Yield)