Things have changed at the Australian Open both on and off the court and it will be interesting to know what kind of impact it is going to have on the overall tournament.
The lack of fans is something the players have become accustomed to, but it will have a bit of a 'shock element' to it having had the stands somewhat filled over the first five days and now playing in what will be near silence. It is a challenge both mentally and emotionally for players and I am sure most involved will be hoping that things change by the end of this Grand Slam and that the fans will return for the business end of the event.
On court the Men's draw looks wide open after the injury picked up by Novak Djokovic which puts his entire participation in the remainder of the tournament in doubt. It will be interesting to see if the World Number 1 can manage the pain to keep playing, but he admitted himself that he may not be in a position to take to the court on Day 7 when he is set to play his Fourth Round match against Milos Raonic.
It will mean the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be further encouraged to believe they can win this Grand Slam title.
The Woman's draw also looks to be building up nicely towards the end of the tournament and I think we are in for some enjoyable tennis.
No fans is a blow, but the Melbourne authorities have made the right call to try and get on top of the virus even if it means the people living in Victoria are under another strict lockdown. It is very difficult for anyone to be in lockdown and what it entails so you just have to hope people stay safe, stay mentally as strong as they can be and that things will improve sooner than later.
Personally I am fed up of the situation in London as it has become months since I've had any interaction with anyone outside of my own household- I miss people, I miss going out and I miss actually living, not merely surviving through the days.
Day 5 saw a bounce back after a couple of tough days for the Tennis Picks and on Day 6 there feels like a lot of selections that hit the mark I need to make them. Hopefully I can build back towards a positive mark for the tournament, while Outright selections look to book their places in the second week on what is another packed day with some quality matches out there.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 games v Mikael Ymer: When you represent a nation like Sweden there is always going to be some pressure on players to produce at the very top of the Tennis Tour. The Ymer brothers have understood that throughout their careers and both accept it will be part and parcel of the questions they will face whenever they are in front of the press, but Mikael is handling it the best way he can at 22 years old.
The young man sounds pretty level-headed, which is important for players making their way on the Tour, and Mikael Ymer has already produced his best result at a Grand Slam by reaching the Third Round here. A win over a Seeded player in the First Round opened up this portion of the draw and Mikael Ymer got the better of Carlos Alcarez Garfia in the Second Round, the much heralded Spanish teenager who looks to have a bright future in the game.
Neither win came in dominant fashion, but Mikael Ymer won't care about that as he gets set to take on one of the favourites to win the Australian Open. The time spent on court might be a concern for Ymer, but he is going up against Stefanos Tsitsipas who needed over four hours to deservedly come through his Second Round match against Thanasi Kokkinakis.
It might have taken five sets, but I think it is a huge mental success for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he could have easily been thinking of all the missed opportunities he had within that match. The Greek World Number 6 has previously produced some of his best tennis in Melbourne where he gets a huge amount of support from the locals, but it can be argued that Tsitsipas is playing at a level higher than we have seen even when considering the small small sample of matches played in 2021.
One of my 'criticisms' of Stefanos Tsitsipas is that he doesn't get more from his return game and I think he has probably been thinking about that himself judging by some of his remarks so far this week. Whatever he has been working on has showed up so far in his time Down Under and Tsitsipas is not only winning considerably more return points in terms of a percentage, but it is being rewarded with a lot more breaks of serve than we are used to from him too.
In the last three seasons Stefanos Tsitsipas has tended to break in around 18% of return games played on the hard courts, but he is running at 31% in his four matches in 2021. I am not sure that is sustainable from this player, but it makes Tsitsipas very dangerous considering how well he tends to serve on this surface.
This is going to represent a real challenge for Mikael Ymer who has a solid return, one that has been effective even when he has played against top 50 Ranked players on the Tour. He doesn't have much experience playing the really top names on the hard courts, but one meeting stands out and that is the 6-3, 6-1 defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas on an indoor hard court twelve months ago.
On that day it was the Tsitsipas serve which dominated the match having won almost 79% of points behind his serve against Mikael Ymer. Anything similar will put intense pressure on the Swedish underdog and that is mainly down to the fact that he has struggled to hold serve against the better players he has played on the Tour on the hard courts.
In that match last year, Stefanos Tsitsipas broke in 50% of the return games played and there is enough being shown in Melbourne over the last two weeks to think this will end up a relatively straight-forward win for the Greek star.
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: I have long made it clear that I am a fan of the Karen Khachanov game and consider him as someone who should be a Grand Slam Champion at some stage in his career. However I think the big hitting Russian is going to be meeting his match in this good looking Third Round encounter when he goes up against Matteo Berrettini.
Both players have a career high Number 8 World Ranking, but it is Matteo Berrettini who comes into the Australian Open as the higher Seed. He is still in the top 10 of the World Rankings, while Karen Khachanov is barely holding onto his top 20 spot, and it does feel like Matteo Berrettini is the one that is on a superior trajectory of the two players at this current time.
There should be plenty of power on display and the serve is going to be the big weapon for both players- Karen Khachanov is holding 92% of service games played in 2021 while Matteo Berrettini is at 90%. However there is something to note about those numbers and that is that Khachanov has yet to play a single player Ranked inside the top 20 and Berrettini has played four players inside those Rankings.
That is important because this is a step up for Karen Khachanov who over the last two seasons has held less than 84% of his service games played on the hard courts. His returning numbers have been steady at around 36% of return points being won leading to about a 19% break rate over a number of seasons, but all of these marks will be challenged by a confident Italian on the other side of the net.
Matteo Berrettini's service numbers have been stronger than his opponent's, but he has not been as effective in returning, although there have been signs that may also be developing from the small amount of matches played in 2021. As long as his serve is as big and dominating as it can be, Matteo Berrettini will feel it will put some huge mental pressures on any opponent he faces and that will give him a chance to win matches and have yet another deep run in a Grand Slam tournament.
My feeling is that in this match up it will come down to which of these players is able to serve the best to keep the other off balance and chasing the match. Neither is the best returner, but Matteo Berrettini's edge in the serving department and also in the head to head should give him the confidence to progress.
The Italian has won all three previous matches against Karen Khachanov, although they have not played since June 2019 having met all three times between February and June that year. Two of those meetings were on a grass court and one was on a hard court and Matteo Berrettini has had a huge edge when it comes to the serve having held in 97% of the service games he has played compared with Karen Khachanov's 76% mark.
In all three matches it is Berrettini who has created more break points and in the last match between these players he had more break points than Karen Khachanov has had in the three matches combined. While the Russian is playing really well to open up in 2021, he does have a 12-31 record against top 20 opponents on the hard courts and the match up edge to Matteo Berrettini makes me believe he can win this match in three or four sets.
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: These two players have only met once previously on the pro Tour and it was a remarkable match if only for the ease in which Filip Krajinovic was able to beat Daniil Medvedev at the Indian Wells Masters in 2019. Filip Krajinovic only faced two break points in that match and was able to win 42% of the points played on the Daniil Medvedev serve as he won 6-3, 6-2, but both players will feel they are much improved from that meeting almost two years ago.
It was later that year that Daniil Medvedev made the US Open Final and he has reached the Semi Final at the same event since then too. The Russian has moved into the top 10 of the World Rankings and he has become one of the top hard court players in the world, while the uncertainty about the injury Novak Djokovic picked up in his Third Round win has pushed Daniil Medvedev into favouritism for the tournament.
All of that brings a pressure to the fore, but Mevedev has long looked pretty level-headed and someone who will look to play his best tennis and see where that is going to take him. His hard court numbers improved from 2019 to 2020 and Daniil Medvedev has looked in imperious form as he put his 6-0 start on the board in 2021.
He has dominated his first two opponents at the Australian Open and Daniil Medvedev seems to be enjoying the conditions with his serve and return looking mighty effective. Unsurprisingly he is a strong favourite to make it through to the second week of the tournament, but Daniil Medvedev cannot take anything for granted when he takes on Filip Krajinovic on Day 6 of the tournament.
Filip Krajinovic is a solid hard court player and his two wins in the draw so far have been very good, although against a level of opponent far below what he is expected to see in the Third Round. His service numbers have simply not matched what Daniil Medvedev has been able to do on the hard courts and Filip Krajinovic has tended to have a harder time when facing the elite players on the surface.
The numbers take a significant dent when he has faced top 20 opponents on the hard courts and it is the return which has suffered. Filip Krajinovic has a 1-4 record against those opponents at Grand Slam level on this surface and that sole win came against Marco Cecchinato who was never a strong hard court player and who had an artificially high Ranking after a couple of surprising clay court runs.
His last two losses to top 20 Ranked players in Grand Slam matches on the hard courts have come in straight sets and Krajinovic has not been overly competitive in those outside a set or two. That has to be an issue and someone like Daniil Medvedev has an overall game that makes it very hard to see him losing a match like this one despite the head to head record.
It is a big spread to cover, but Daniil Medvedev is 19-0 against players Ranked outside the top 20 in the hard court Grand Slams played in Australia and the United States since August 2018. The numbers have been dominant in those matches and the last eight have been won in straight sets without a single tie-breaker being needed.
I am expecting the return to be the difference maker for the higher Seed in this match too and I will look for Daniil Medvedev to pull away for an impressive win.
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Without a doubt this looks a very big handicap on first viewing especially if veteran Feliciano Lopez is able to serve at his highest level, but the Spaniard is at the back end of what has been a long and successful career.
Even his place in the Third Round may be a surprise as Lopez has spent over six hours on court and was an underdog in both of the first two matches played at the Australian Open. Beating a Wild Card in the First Round is one thing, but Feliciano Lopez came from two sets down in the Second Round which has to have given him confidence.
However it will also have been a taxing mental and physical effort from Feliciano Lopez and that could hinder him the longer this match goes, especially as he goes up against a young and improving Andrey Rublev who will play every point to the best of his ability. The return game is good enough to at least get into the Lopez serve despite the power of the first serve and the serve-volley play that Lopez will employ to try and get on top of the rallies.
Feliciano Lopez was a touch fortunate in the last Round as Lorenzo Sonego created 11 break points compared with 3 faced, but the latter was only to take two of his chances and was broken every time he faced a break point. That is largely unsustainable and it is hard to ignore the fact that Kevin Anderson was able to break the Lopez serve twice in preparation for this tournament.
Make no mistake, Andrey Rublev is a much stronger returner than any Feliciano Lopez has faced in this tournament and that could wear on the veteran. Over the last twelve months the Russian has also shown clear signs of a much improved serve on this surface and it should mean he is able to keep the pressure on Feliciano Lopez and eventually wear down a player who has already spent a lot of time on the court.
As the match wears on I can see some fatigue seeing Lopez lose a touch of rhythm on the first serve and the more second serves seen by Andrey Rublev the better his opportunities will be to break the Spaniard's serve enough times to cover this mark. I would not be surprised if the match starts off pretty competitively, but at some point I expect Rublev to begin to take over with his superior recent numbers on both serve and return giving him a considerable edge in the match.
The Second Round match was perhaps tougher than expected, but Andrey Rublev was a little loose when the break points were created and a slightly better conversion percentage should see him pull away for a big win.
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Cameron Norrie: A lot of players in the Men's draw would have stood up and taken notice of the Novak Djokovic injury struggles in his Third Round win and there will be plenty of Rafael Nadal fans hoping this is the time for their man to take over the record for most Grand Slam wins for a male player. At the start of this tournament Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have both got 20 majors under their belt and the back issues that may have been plaguing Nadal at the beginning of this tournament have not shown up just yet.
The first two wins have come in largely dominant fashion for Rafael Nadal, although he will want to show a little more composure when the break points come up for him. The Spaniard has created eleven break points in each of his first two matches in the tournament, and he has broken at a 50% conversion rate which is impressive, but there is still some room for improvement.
Rafael Nadal will take on the last British player left in either the Men's or Women's draws when Cameron Norrie is set to take him on for the first time. I imagine a call will have been made to Andy Murray who is playing in a Challenger event in Italy at the moment, but the lefty will be looking to impose his own game on Nadal and see how he handles it.
There is something to like about the Norrie game and he has played well enough on the hard courts having experienced the surface in his time playing tennis at an American university. A lefty playing a lefty should mean Cameron Norrie is aware of some of the angles that Rafael Nadal is going to want to try and work, but the challenge for the lower Ranked player is trying to get his teeth into the Nadal service games.
So far in this tournament Rafael Nadal has only faced five break points and only allowed one of those to be converted as he has won 74% of points played behind the serve. That is an incredible number and will be difficult for Cameron Norrie to change that considering he has broken in just 4% of return games played against top 10 players on the hard courts in his career.
That number is across five matches and the last two have seen Cameron Norrie win a total of seven games in four sets against Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev. Rafael Nadal may not be as strong a returner as those two have been operating at over the last twelve to eighteen months, but he is certainly good enough to force Norrie to have to hit a lot of balls to beat him and that could see the British player worn down like the first two opponents have been.
It is a large handicap if Rafael Nadal is slightly off his game, but he has enjoyed the conditions in Melbourne and he won't have to deal with any hecklers in this one. The lack of fans is a blow for Cameron Norrie who has a New Zealand background and would have likely been backed as the underdog, and I do think he could struggle to stay with Nadal who will want to book his place in the second week without expending too much energy or exerting too much pressure on the back before bigger matches to come.
Alex De Minaur - 6.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The majority will feel that the lack of crowd would impact the home players more than their opponents, but I do think someone like Fabio Fognini would have been inspired to take on the night crowd against an Australian hope. Instead it is going to be back to the sanitised settings that tennis players and many athletes have sadly become used to dealing with over the last several months.
While a place in the second week of a Grand Slam is motivation enough, you do have to wonder whether players will feel more of their physical exertions without having something to distract or inspire them from the stands. It is something that may be an issue for Fabio Fognini who needed almost four hours to get through his Second Round match against a compatriot, one that didn't take too kindly to Fognini's remarks at the net at the end of that five setter.
To underline my point about Fognini potentially being a player that may not enjoy this situation I point to the fact that he won just one match after the Tour resumed in 2020. He lost the other four played and I do think it is going to be a difficult match for him, more so than if Alex De Minaur had the fans cheering on every shot.
The Australian has been improving and would feel he could get the better of Fognini anyway having won both matches here in straight sets and looking really good in the process. Beating Tennys Sandgren and Pablo Cuevas are decent wins, but Alex De Minaur will need to take another step upwards if he is going to reach the second week here for the first time and back up the Quarter Final run he had at the US Open last September.
Alex De Minaur's best work tends to come on the hard courts and he will be confident in the way he has been serving and returning so far in this tournament. I have no doubt that the talented Italian will give him some problems with his quality, but Fabio Fognini's serve has tended to be more vulnerable than Alex De Minaur's and I think that makes the difference in the match.
The handicap won't be easy to cover, but I do think Fognini is perhaps going to fall away in at least one set as he does tend to allow sets to go if he wants to conserve energy for others. I do think he is capable of giving the Australian some troubles, but Alex De Minaur may pull clear for the win and the cover in what feels like a more open Men's draw than we have had for some time.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 27-25, - 2.66 Units (104 Units Staked, - 2.56% Yield)
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