The first day at the Australian Open 2021 tournament got underway on Monday and for the main part it was dominated by the big names who all managed to work their way into the Second Round.
Unsurprisingly there were some long matches that ebbed and flowed, but most fans will have been happy to see some live, competitive Tennis and the hope is that it will be the start of a very strong fortnight which leads into a strong year on the Tour.
Not everyone was happy- Benoit Paire was beaten in the First Round and decided he would tell the press that the Australian Open is a 'shit' tournament and he basically only played for the money on offer. His complaints largely revolved around the quarantine issues that continue to cause controversy even though I personally can't understand why the players felt they were not informed about the procedures involved in travelling to Australia.
I mean I don't play and I know they have quarantine in place and certainly would have been aware of the risks that it could be a much harder one if there was a positive test on my transport. It sounds like sour grapes to me and Paire isn't going to be going hungry if he decided he would stay in Europe and get ready for the tournaments that are scheduled to be played there in the coming weeks leading into the clay court season which is still set to begin in April.
Ultimately he wasn't forced to travel to the event (with all the paid expenses that Tennis Australia provide for the players) and if he really feels so strongly about the event he shouldn't go back in the years ahead.
The ebbs and flows were not only seen on the court on Monday, but my Day 1 Picks were on a rollercoaster ride, or so it felt. Eventually I came down on the right side, but I would like to see more consistency going forward, even if I am fully aware of how these Grand Slam tournaments can go when making selections every day.
You can also read my Australian Open Tennis Picks with the bottom half of the Men's draw and the top half of the Women's draw getting underway on Tuesday. You can read those here.
Elise Mertens - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: It has been two years since Elise Mertens last won a title on the WTA Tour and winning an event in the warm up to the Australian Open will give the Belgian player some confidence to take into the tournament. She is still Ranked inside the top 20, but Elise Mertens needs to find a bit more consistency in her performances against the very best players if she is going to crack the top 10 for the first time.
She was a surprising Semi Finalist at the Australian Open in 2018, but Elise Mertens has reached the Third Round and Fourth Round in the two years since then. The Belgian has twice reached the Quarter Final at the US Open in that time, but it has become a feature of the Mertens performances at the Grand Slam level that she has been strong early and then struggled as soon as the competition ramps up.
Realistically it would take an upset for Mertens to be beaten before the Third Round at any Slam, especially from her Seeding spot. The early wins have tended to come with relative ease for Elise Mertens and she has a perfect 16-0 record in hard court Grand Slam matches against players Ranked outside the top 50 since January 2018.
The serve can sometimes be a problem for Elise Mertens, but in those matches she has found herself playing much better behind that shot as overmatched opponents struggle to breakthrough the Belgian's defences. She has also won 52% of points played against the serve and it will be a big challenge for Leylah Fernandez despite the 18 year old being close to her best career World Ranking and looking like a big talent on the Tour.
Leylah Fernandez is a strong return player which will have her believing she can at least give her higher Ranked player something to think about, but the serve is still developing. It makes it entirely possible that she will be put under consistent pressure by someone who returns as well as Mertens can and this is a player that won't give a lot away.
It also has to be remembered that Fernandez is still a developing player on the Tour and in her career matches against top 20 players on the hard courts, it has to be noted that the return has not been as effective as the Canadian would like. In those three previous matches, Fernandez has won just 33% of the return points played and I think this could be a match which proves to be a learning experience for the younger player.
Elise Mertens can be hard to trust, but she has regularly dominated those players she should and I think she will have every chance of covering this big mark.
Heather Watson v Kristyna Pliskova: For the second year in a row Heather Watson and Kristyna Pliskova are meeting in the First Round at the Australian Open and I think there is every chance for the British player to frank the win she earned a little under thirteen months ago.
Both players will be aware that their own form has been a little sketchy and the tough quarantine rules will have made it difficult for them to really get the kind of practice time they would have liked. The two players were beaten in their first matches in the warm up events played over the last week which does make it hard to really know what kind of form they are in, but Watson will feel she does have the edge in this First Round match.
Last season Heather Watson was able to win a title on the hard courts and she has at least had one win and a competitive loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova under her belt before heading to Melbourne. It is certainly going to mean having a bit more confidence than Kristyna Pliskova who has lost her last seven hard court matches played over the last twelve months and the numbers have been pretty disappointing too.
The Czech player has not really come close to the kind of successes twin sister Karolina has had on the Tour, but her World Ranking has slipped to Number 70 behind the poor form she has been in. Kristyna Pliskova does have a good serve which makes her dangerous, but her return game has simply not developed to the level it should have and I think that gives Heather Watson the edge in this match as she looks to move into a 3-1 head to head lead over this opponent.
Even during her losing run on the hard courts, you couldn't say Pliskova has just been unfortunate with her draw and that has to be a concern for her.
And in the head to head with Heather Watson it is clear that the British player has been able to match the service numbers that Pliskova has been able to produce, but the superior returning has proved to be a key for her. Even in the defeat Heather Watson will feel she was a little unlucky and the match here in Australia last year saw her deserve to beat Pliskova even if it took three sets to get the job done.
There is no doubt that Heather Watson has not achieved what she may have thought she could on the pro Tour, but she is a solid enough player to get the better of an erratic and out of form Kristyna Pliskova. The return of serve should prove to be key for Watson on the day as she moves into the Second Round at the Australian Open for the third time in five years.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich + 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: A decision was made that the two Semi Final winners would share the title at the Grampians Trophy tournament that was put together as a warm up event for the Australian Open. One of the Champions ended up being Anett Kontaveit and there has been enough to like about her development to believe she can have a big impact at the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season.
The Estonian has only just turned 25 years old and there is time for her to push back towards the top 10 of the WTA Tour, although the depth of talent on this side of the Tennis Tour has certainly gotten deeper in recent times.
Winning a title will help the confidence of a player who had her best Grand Slam result when reaching the Quarter Final of the Australian Open in 2020- however it is somewhat disappointing to think that is the only time Anett Kontaveit has managed to reach the last eight of a Slam despite the obvious talent she possesses.
She has proven to be an effective all-court player and Anett Kontaveit goes into the First Round as a big favourite to see off Aliaksandra Sasnovich, although I think the number of games makes the underdog appealing.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich has been as high as World Number 30, but her current Ranking is down at Number 90, although the numbers suggest she should be moving up from that position over the coming months. The draws will need to be kinder than this one, but Sasnovich won't be intimidated by having to face a player against whom she has a winning record overall and a 4-2 advantage on the hard courts.
The last of those hard court wins came just two years ago at the Australian Open and the Sasnovich serve has been good enough to not only keep her competitive against Anett Kontaveit, but to put those wins on the board.
It can't be ignored that Aliaksandra Sasnovich has a poor record when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last three seasons, but her numbers in those matches in 2020 were encouraging. Even the one-sided loss to Garbine Muguruza this season isn't one to overly concern Sasnovich considering how well Muguruza has been playing, while she does seem to match up well enough with Anett Kontaveit to at least expect this match to be kept close.
In most cases Kontaveit has dominated those players she has met in Grand Slams who have been Ranked outside the top 50 at the time of the match and she has won the last seven matches in that situation. I do think she is most likely going to progress to the Second Round, but I am looking for Aliaksandra Sasnovich to have the right game plan to make this a more competitive match than some may think and taking the games with the underdog looks the right a reasonable selection here.
Shelby Rogers - 5.5 games v Francesca Jones: There is little doubt that Francesca Jones is going to be a real inspiration for people around the world and the attention her first appearance in a Grand Slam draw is generating is for very good reason. On the face of things it may seem strange that a 20 year old from Great Britain who is ranked at Number 245 in the world would be achieving the attention she is, but Francesca Jones has already overcome the odds to simply be playing professional tennis.
If she had listened to the experts, Jones would have put her racquet down a long time ago having been born with a condition which means she is missing fingers and toes on all four hands and feet. The British player needs a specially tailored racquet to play and has had to adjust her style to make up for her situation, but Jones will be seen as a role model to so many that wish to pursue dreams when it seems like those are beyond them.
Winning three Qualifiers has given Francesca Jones her first taste of the main Tour as she is set to play in the First Round at the Australian Open, although her early defeat in her maiden match on the main WTA Tour has underlined how tough it will be to bridge the gap to the next level. She will be playing with a nothing to lose attitude, but Jones has a tough First Round match in front of her in the shape of Shelby Rogers who is comfortably entrenched in the top 100 of the World Rankings.
The American reached the US Open Quarter Final back in September, but Shelby Rogers has not enjoyed much success at the Australian Open which will offer Jones some encouragement. However, Rogers reached the Quarter Final in the warm up event for the Australian Open and was only narrowly beaten by Ashleigh Barty who is amongst the favourites to win the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season.
A big serve will always make it possible for Shelby Rogers to set up a match in her favour and Francesca Jones will have to return better than she did in her relatively straight forward loss to Nadia Podoroska last week. The favourite also looks a little more comfortable dealing with those opponents she should be beating and produced a 7-1 record against players Ranked outside of the top 100 when playing them on a hard court in 2020.
In those matches, Shelby Rogers saw her serve dominate matches and she was then able to do enough on the return of serve to win the majority of them. Her return is one that can be improved, but I think Shelby Rogers will be aided by Francesca Jones who will be learning on the job on Day 2 at the Australian Open.
Francesca Jones did have two solid wins in the Qualifiers for the Australian Open, but this is a big step up for her and I think Shelby Rogers might have too much firepower for a player who will learn a lot from her experiences to open 2021.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Kaja Juvan: Any player who has reached the Quarter Final at every Grand Slam has to be respected and Johanna Konta is the top British player going into the Australian Open this year. 2020 was a largely disappointing year for Johanna Konta who did not progress beyond the Second Round in any of the three Grand Slam tournaments played and she was beaten in the First Round both at the French Open and here in Melbourne.
After back to back Semi Final and Quarter Final runs, Johnna Konta has struggled to compete in Melbourne in recent visits despite growing up in Australia until the age of 14. You couldn't really blame the conditions for her early exits, but Konta has been unfortunate with the draws as the last two losses in the Second Round and First Round have come against Garbine Muguruza and Ons Jabeur, two players who are Seeded here this year.
She has admitted she has been fortunate in being able to at least practice while quarantining in Australia on her arrival, but a tight early loss in the warm up events last week means she has just two competitive matches under her belt. That could be an issue as she faces a Qualifier in the First Round, although Qualifying did take place in the Middle East before players headed to Australia once confirming their place in the main draw.
Kaja Juvan looks like a player that will have a decent impact on the Tour in the years ahead, but she is currently Ranked outside the top 100 and is a deserved underdog. Her three Qualifier wins came against players Ranked 163 or lower so this is a big step up, although Juvan has to be respected having taken a set off French Open Champion Iga Swiatek in a losing effort in preparation for the first Grand Slam of the season.
Her numbers on the hard courts in main Tour events have been solid rather than spectacular, but Kaja Juvan will know she will have to be better than that if she is going to beat a player who has multiple Grand Slam Quarter Finals under her belt. The Slovenian is also just 2-7 when playing top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts and Juvan has really struggled with her return in those matches while trying to protect what is a vulnerable serve.
One of the issues Johanna Konta has had is getting more from her return game which would have really helped her when it came down to the business end of big tournaments. The return numbers on the hard courts are not terrible, but there is plenty of scope for improvement.
I don't think that will be a factor in this First Round match as Johanna Konta is likely to get plenty of returns back in play and put some pressure on Kaja Juvan, but the big edge will come behind the World Number 15's serve. Johanna Konta should be able to win enough easy points on the first serve in the expected conditions to at least keep the pressure on her younger opponent and I think it will eventually see the Seed move through with a good win on the board.
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: You have to think the window for Karolina Pliskova to pick up a maiden Grand Slam title is closing all the time and she had a poor Slam record in 2020. However it is only two years since the big-serving Czech player reached the Semi Final here in Melbourne and I think she should be able to make a strong start to the tournament this year.
There will be some disappointment with the early season form, but everything is put together to prepare for the Australian Open and Pliskova will be happy enough with the draw. In recent years she has dominated those players Ranked outside the top 50 especially on the hard courts, while Karolina Pliskova is 17-1 against them in Grand Slam matches at either the Australian or US Open since 2017.
Unsurprisingly the first serve has set her up in those matches, but Karolina Pliskova's return game is also very strong and that is very much the case compared with her seasonal numbers. She is able to win around 50% of the return points played and that will always give Pliskova a chance to not only win matches, but win without spending too long on court early in a Grand Slam tournament.
This year Karolina Pliskova takes on Jasmine Paolini, an Italian player whose career best World Ranking is just inside the top 100. It is a mark that Paolini is hovering around right now, but her hard court numbers make it hard to believe she can put together enough tennis to earn the upset in this First Round match.
Jasmine Paolini had a couple of decent wins when preparing for this tournament last week, while she pushed Karolina Muchova into a third set in a losing effort too. However Paolini is just 2-10 on the hard courts in her career matches against top 50 Ranked players and her return numbers have really fallen in those matches which is perhaps going to be underlined when facing someone who can serve as well as Karolina Pliskova can.
The Italian's own serve is not really going to be good enough to keep Pliskova at bay either and I think it will lead to the Seed winning in relatively routine matter. My one concern with backing Karolina Pliskova is that she would have covered this mark in just eleven of the eighteen hard court Grand Slam matches played against players outside of the top 50 as she can sometimes lose some focus, but the power should be enough for the Czech player to get this done.
MY PICKS: Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Heather Watson @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens + 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ricardas Berankis - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniel Evans - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Matteo Berrettini Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-5, + 1.48 Units (22 Units Staked, + 6.73% Yield)
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