On Day 9 at the Australian Open two of the four Semi Final matches were put together and we will complete the line up on Day 10.
This tournament feels like it could be broken up into three pieces- first we had the fans, then we didn't, but news has come out that from Day 11 we will hopefully have fans for the remainder of the event. It is not an easy position for the players to deal with, but I do think the spectacle of the first Grand Slam of the season will be greatly improved with real life fan reactions rather than the piped in nonsense we have all had to accept for months.
Earlier in the tournament we have seen the kind of impact fans can have on live sporting events and the good news is that we are likely to be treated to some big matches in the remainder of the Australian Open. Those will only be improved with the atmosphere coming down from the stands and it will hopefully be a picture that is replicated at the other Slams to be played through the course of the season.
Most players don't really know what they are going to get out of the tournaments scheduled through the remainder of the year and the questions have come up about how other nations will deal with quarantine requirements. It has been suggested that players won't travel for the 'smaller' events that are played over the course of the season if they have to go through the kind of hard quarantine we saw in Australia, while Covid-19 is not going away any time soon which means there are likely to be further disruptions with players or close contacts testing positive in events.
For now it is something we have to deal with as fans, but it is much more difficult for players and it will be interesting to see how they cope with the travel and movement around the globe which is part of the Tour in normal times.
I am still hopeful that by the time the European clay court season rolls around that we will be in a much stronger position to handle these big tournaments, and the year should improve the longer it goes.
We have got two Semi Finals ready to go on Thursday and I have to say it is little surprise that Novak Djokovic is now the odds on favourite to win the title in Australia for the ninth time in his career. He looks to be over the injury that hindered him in the Third Round and the 'easier' path through to the Final could be important to the outcome of this tournament on Sunday, especially with an extra day of rest to prepare for the Final.
No one will take Aslan Karatsev for granted, but it would be a massive upset if the Qualifier is able to beat the eight time Australian Open Champion. He benefited from a major Grigor Dimitrov injury in the Quarter Final and may need that kind of fortune to get through this Semi Final, although Karatsev will become a familiar name on the main Tour for at least the next twelve months thanks to the run here.
The first of the Women's Semi Finals has also been confirmed and I think both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams will be confident in their chances of winning that match on Thursday. I think it could be a really good match to watch in the form both have displayed and the winner will certainly feel they have enough to go on and win the title on Saturday.
Before that we have to complete the Semi Final line up and that means there are four more Quarter Finals to be played on Day 10 at the tournament.
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Karolina Muchova: When the draw for the Australian Open was made there would have been plenty that thought a Karolina from the Czech Republic would be line to have a good tournament. The large majority of those people would have figured that would be Pliskova rather than Muchova though, but it is the latter who has made her way through to the Quarter Final after yet another successful recovery to earn a straight sets win.
All credit has to be given to Karolina Muchova for the belief she seemingly has in her own game having come from 5-0 down to beat compatriot Karolina Pliskova 7-5 in the Third Round and then recovering from 4-0 and 5-2 down to win a pivotal first set against Elise Mertens in the Fourth Round. It does mean Muchova has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and her surprising run has continued as she is set to be placed as the underdog again.
I am a fan of any player that is willing to lay it all on the line and refuse to give up in sets, even if Karolina Muchova has hurt a couple of my selections in the last few days, but it also should be pointed out that she seems to be on the right side of inches. In Tennis those inches can mean the difference between a win and a loss and it says plenty that Karolina Muchova has only earned more break points in one of the four matches she has played in Melbourne over the last ten days.
Her service numbers have been pretty average and it is a shot that can be attacked, but it is the Muchova return which has sparked her run to the Quarter Final. That is going to be a key shot again when she takes on home hope Ashleigh Barty who will have hoped the fans could be in attendance to support her in her bid to finally produce another home winner at this Grand Slam.
Ashleigh Barty coped in her Fourth Round win over Shelby Rogers and like Karolina Muchova she is yet to drop a set at the Australian Open. The difference has been that the Australian has tended to win her sets more routinely than Karolina Muchova and that is highlighted by the fact that Barty has only won a single set where her opponent has won more than four games, while Muchova has only won two sets where her opponent has won less than four games.
The serve looks like being a real difference maker between the two players in this Quarter Final and it says something that Ashleigh Barty has faced six break points across her last two matches which is the same number as Karolina Muchova faced in her last match alone. The first serve is a big weapon for Barty and she is actually producing stronger returning numbers than her opponent while backing up her title win in the warm up event that was played here.
The time that Karolina Muchova is having to spend on the court is beginning to add up too and I think this is all going to factor in to favour the home player who reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne in 2019 and the Semi Final in 2020. Ashleigh Barty will feel she can go one better this time around and I think she will not be as likely to blow a lead against Karolina Muchova as the latter's last two opponents have done.
These two players met at the US Open in 2018 in the Third Round and it was a competitive match that Ashleigh Barty deserved to win. I think she will be able to do the same here despite the improvements being made by Karolina Muchova and I think Ashleigh Barty will be a little too good on the serve and return which leads to her getting the better of this handicap mark.
Jennifer Brady-Jessica Pegula over 20.5 games: When you think of American female players that might make it to the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam the Williams sisters will likely be the first names that enter the mind. In more recent times the likes of Sofia Kenin have shown they can go deep into draws, but Jennifer Brady may be ready to become a more familiar name at the business end of tournaments having reached the Semi Final at the US Open and now having this run in Melbourne.
She is faced up with a compatriot in the form of Jessica Pegula who is beginning to make her own name in the sports world and not simply be known as one of the daughters of Terry Pegula, the owner of the Buffalo Bills. An upset win over Elina Svitolina has taken Jessica Pegula into the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the first time and she looks set to earn a new career high World Ranking in the weeks ahead.
The underdog in this Quarter Final did drop a set for the first time in the win over Svitolina, but she has to be feeling very comfortable about her level and Jessica Pegula has long shown she is a solid hard court player. The numbers have largely been better than that in this run to the Quarter Final and it is the serve that has given her a spark with just thirteen break points faced in the first four matches in the tournament.
It is a strong number, especially in the WTA side of the Singles draw, and one that has given Pegula the chance to tee off on the return where she has won almost 49% of points played. She has broken at least four times in every match in the Australian Open and Jessica Pegula has created at least seven break points in each Round, numbers that will certainly make her feel pretty confident about her chances of earning another upset in this Quarter Final.
Nerves could be an issue for Pegula, but she will also be well aware of the kind of serving she is going to be facing from Jennifer Brady who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and has given up more than three games in one of the eight sets she has won this week. So much of that is down to the Brady serve which has produced some of the strongest numbers in the Women's draw this week and which has seen her face fewer break points than Jessica Pegala (Jennifer Brady has faced twelve break points).
Jennifer Brady has bene broken twice in the tournament compared with Jessica Pegula losing serve six times and you can understand why the former is the favourite. Having a serve that is giving very little away has also allowed Brady to win 51% of the return points played and I think she may have a bit too much for Pegula in this Quarter Final.
Like her opponent, Jennifer Brady has broken at least four times in each Round at the Australian Open and I do think she is going to feel she can earn a measure of revenge for losing the sole pro Tour meeting these two have had. That came in Cincinnati last August and saw Jessica Pegula win a tight match 7-6, 6-4 as both players were able to break the other at least four times with the serves not being as effective as you might have imagined.
It may be the conditions in Melbourne which are helping both get through their games a bit easier here, and I do think this is likely to be another competitive match between them. If one of the players is slightly off their best level on the serve it could end up being a one-sided match, but I think they are both playing well enough to push the other all the way and I really would not be that surprised if this match goes the distance.
Playing without a crowd may actually aid the nerves without the feeling coming down from the stands if things start slowly, while I think the two serves could see Jennifer Brady and Jessica Pegula run through some service games. Both have returned well enough to believe they can at least challenge the other more than most have so far this week, while I think picking a winner is not so easy as the odds may suggest.
My lean is that Jennifer Brady will find the big serves to just herself up for a few more 'easy' holds and that may prove to be the reason she is able to push through to the Semi Final. However I also think Jessica Pegula is playing at a strong level and will have the mental boost of knowing she beat Brady not long ago which will keep her competitive and the two players may have enough service juice to see them combine and cover this total games line.
Even two tight sets could get over the line here and I think we may see at least one tie-breaker which could set them well on the way to doing that even if the match is concluded in straight sets.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Andrey Rublev: Playing each other in the Quarter Final of a tournament has become familiar to these two top 10 Ranked compatriots who are good friends on and off the court. The two Russians have really put the nation back on the map as they have taken over from the void left by the likes of Marat Safin and Nikolay Davydenko in recent years and the winner of this match will be confident they can go on and perhaps even become the first Men's player from the country to win a Grand Slam in sixteen years.
The last was won by Safin at the Australian Open in 2005, but Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev won't be as surprising a winner as the charismatic Safin was that year. Over the last six to nine months, Medvedev and Rublev have been right up there as the very best hard court players in the world and they have both opened 2021 with eight straight wins and producing some eye-catching numbers which can only impress.
In this tournament both are holding over 90% of the service games played, but the real difference between the two can be seen in the returning numbers with Daniil Medvedev breaking in 41% of return games played compared with Andrey Rublev's 27% mark. There is also around a 7% edge in favour of the higher Ranked Medvedev when it comes to return points won and I do think that could end up being the reason why Andrey Rublev has to wait a little longer for a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.
He is experienced with this being a fourth Quarter Final in the Majors, but Daniil Medvedev may hold a slight advantage having won both previous Quarter Finals in Grand Slams. Both have come at the US Open though and this is the first time, surprisingly, that Medvedev has reached the Quarter Final in one of the other three Grand Slams, although the conditions in Melbourne look much more up his street this year than previous years.
The other mental aspect that favours Daniil Medvedev is the 4-0 head to head record he holds against his friend Andrey Rublev which includes beating him in three hard court Quarter Finals. All four wins have come on this surface and the most recent was last September at the US Open in a match Medvedev won in straight sets.
It was a day of big serving with only one break point played in the entirety of the two and a half hours they spent on court that day. That came in favour of Daniil Medvedev who dominated behind serve and it has been a feature of their head to heads that the return of serve has favoured Medvedev.
Daniil Medvedev has held 91% of service games played against Andrey Rublev across those four previous matches and that is compared to the 70% mark held by the latter. There is also the marked difference between the two players when it comes to service points won and I do think Daniil Medvedev is going to get the better of things again with both operating at a really high level in the tournament.
We may even see Andrey Rublev win his first set against Daniil Medvedev on the pro Tour, but you have to favour the higher Ranked Russian and his superior return game. There hasn't been much to separate these players on the pure numbers over the last twelve months on the hard courts, but the head to head and the clear edge Daniil Medvedev has had on the return of serve can see him win another tough Quarter Final against his compatriot at a Grand Slam.
I would expect him to be able to do that in three or four sets with the slight edges he holds.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Getting through the first week of the Grand Slam without expending too much energy is always important for players and Stefanos Tsitsipas has also benefited from a walkover in this tournament. That is only strengthened by the strong performances the Greek star has put up in the first three Rounds of the Australian Open and the ATP Cup that was played in the lead up to the event and it will offer a lot of encouragement for the young man who is looking to earn a maiden Grand Slam title this season.
He has yet to reach a Major Final, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached two Semi Finals, one here and one at the French Open, while he has not lost a Quarter Final before. A win over Roger Federer at the Australian Open will also give Tsitsipas belief that he has the tools to down the best players in the world, while the returning in 2021 has been at an extremely high level from the small sample of matches we have seen over the last month.
That will offer plenty of encouragement to Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he will also be well aware of the man standing in his way to make it back to Grand Slam Semi Finals.
Rafael Nadal has shown little sign that the cautionary withdrawal from the ATP Cup to rest his back has hindered him in this tournament and he has won all four matches here without dropping a set and barely being troubled. Granted this is a big step up in level compared with the four players he has beaten so far, but Rafael Nadal is going to be feeling very pleased with where his game is at right now and that makes the Spaniard dangerous as he looks for the Grand Slam title which would see him surpass Roger Federer for most Majors won by a Men's player.
There is still a long way to go though and Nadal will be all too aware of his Quarter Final record in Melbourne compared with his performances at the other Grand Slams. Rafael Nadal has lost six Quarter Finals at the Australian Open, including his defeat to Dominic Thiem last year, and that is compared with just two Quarter Final losses at the other three Grand Slams combined.
Conditions in Melbourne don't seem to sit well with Nadal and he might be a touch disappointed this match is taking place in the Night Session having made it clear he likes the faster day conditions at the tournament. The remainder of the tournament will be played in the evening so there won't be excuses for Rafael Nadal, although it may be a reason he has had so many Quarter Final defeats here in the past.
The numbers are really strong for Rafael Nadal in the tournament with 92% of service games held and 40% of return games played leading to breaks of serve. That will be encouraging, but he is up against Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won all five matches played in 2021 and has been able to hold 98% of service games played in the Australian Open with breaks in 39% of return games played.
I have mentioned before I am not sure whether Stefanos Tsitsipas has figured out his return game or whether that is just an outlandish number from a small sample considering his last two seasons have produced breaks in less than 20% of return games played on the hard courts. But either way it will be tested in this match against an opponent that has largely dominated their previous meetings.
Rafael Nadal has a 6-1 head to head record which becomes 4-0 when considering their hard court meetings alone and one of those wins came here in Australia two years ago. The Semi Final became a one-sided affair in favour of the Spaniard, and Rafael Nadal has held 94% of the service games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas on the hard courts compared with the 71% number for the younger player.
The most recent meeting saw Nadal beat Tsitsipas at the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November, and it was perhaps more comfortable for the former than the three set match implies.
I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas has been working hard to close the gap to the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but there may still be a gap. Closing those head to head numbers won't be easy even at one of the 'weaker' Slams for Rafael Nadal, but this should be far more competitive than the Semi Final between the players in 2019.
However the Spaniard World Number 2 looks to be on a very strong path through this draw and Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn't matched up well enough with him to believe he can upset the odds. The 2021 form will have his fans believing, but Rafael Nadal has looked really good in the first four matches here and I think he will find the right plays at the big moments to win this one in three or four sets.
MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady-Jessica Pegula Over 20.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 41-40, - 7.30 Units (162 Units Staked, - 4.51% Yield)
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