We are down to the final eight players in both the Men's and Women's draws at the Australian Open and there look to be some fantastic matches that are still in front of us.
The Men's draw have put together at least three top quality looking matches that would have made plenty of appeal before a ball had been tossed in the tournament, while the Women's draw has been a mix of the elite and those ready to break into that conversation.
With a few days left before we get to the end of the tournament, I think both titles look open to all of the remaining players and they should all have some belief they can go on and pick up the trophies on offer over the weekend. I am pretty comfortable with the positioning of the Outright Selections with only two of the players selected going out of the tournament before the Quarter Final, but there is still work for those to do if they are going to provide a positive return.
The Tennis Picks have yet to really recover from what was a terrible couple of days over the Second Round, but there is time to turn things around and produce a positive return. Momentum is trending in a relatively decent direction, but the next couple of days will be important as matches run down.
We have four Quarter Finals set to be played on Day 9 and four more on Day 10 and I think it is going to be very enjoyable for the viewers. All of the Singles matches will now be played on the Rod Laver Arena with a couple during the day and a couple in the Night Session and my thoughts on those four matches from Day 9 can be read below.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Aslan Karatsev: It looked like the dream run at the Australian Open was going to come to an end for Aslan Karatsev in the Fourth Round a couple of days ago, but the recovery from 2-0 down in sets to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime has given the rank outsider another few days in Melbourne.
A whole host of streaks have been ended by this run- Aslan Karatsev is the first Qualifier to reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open since 1991 and also the first Qualifier to make the Quarter Final of any Grand Slam since 2011. Add in the fact that he is the first debutant to reach the last eight of a Grand Slam in twenty-five years and the Russian has made a new name for himself.
For tennis fans the name has largely been associated with the darker side of the sport and that is something that is going to have a light shone on it the longer Aslan Karatsev is in the main draw. It will also be a potential story that follows him around in the coming months when he will become a regular on the main ATP Tour, but the focus has to be continuing his 'nothing to lose' attitude on the court and his numbers in the Australian Open have been staggering.
So far in the tournament Aslan Karatsev has only dropped two sets and he has held 88% of service games played, while the return has been a real threat with 41% of return games ending in a break of serve. These are stunning numbers compared to his previous successes on the main Tour, but the Russian has used his run of wins on the Challenger Tour to pick up his level on this grand stage and I think it will be a tough match for Grigor Dimitrov.
The Bulgarian may have missed his best chance to win a Grand Slam, but Dimitrov won't believe that and his straight sets win over US Open Champion Dominic Thiem in the Fourth Round will be encouraging and confidence building. He has yet to drop a set in the tournament and Grigor Dimitrov has held just under 94% of service games played and broken in 43% of return games which gives him a slight edge over the underdog.
Much could depend on how much emotional energy Aslan Karatsev used up in his win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round. It is never easy to back up a win in five sets when you have to come from 0-2 behind and Dominic Thiem found that out against Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round.
While the numbers are strong, I do think you have to factor in the amount of break points that Karatsev has faced in this tournament. Both of these players are creating plenty of chances, but Grigor Dimitrov has not faced as many as Aslan Karatsev across the last three Rounds and I do think his experience at this level could be crucial.
The Australian Open has had a habit of finding a surprise player that can force their way through the draw, but I think this is where the Aslan Karatsev run will come to an end. Grigor Dimitrov will have to ride out some rough moments, but the feeling is that he will have the physical and emotional edge that can see him back up what have been stronger numbers so far in this tournament of the two players.
I think it will see Grigor Dimitrov to win this in either three or, more likely, four sets as he reaches a fourth Grand Slam Semi Final and the second time in Melbourne.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: After reaching the US Open Final in September and the Semi Final at the Australian Open last year, Alexander Zverev has made short work of the four opponents he has faced in the tournament this year. At 23 years old the German looks like he is ready to take the next step in his development, although we will see how Zverev responds to a much bigger challenge than he would have seen in the tournament so far.
None of the four wins have come against a player Ranked inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but Alexander Zverev will still be feeling good about his chances, especially in light of some of the Novak Djokovic struggles.
An injury in the third set in the Third Round against Taylor Fritz meant Novak Djokovic had to bite down on the gum shield and come through in five sets, but there were all kinds of rumours and suggestions as to the seriousness of the injury. At the time Djokovic suggested he had torn a muscle which may have prevented him taking the court in the Fourth Round, but he didn't just play against Milos Raonic but also deservedly come through in four sets.
Since then he has refused to discuss the 'tear' any more, but there was nothing to suggest he was overly hindered in the Fourth Round and the feeling is that it was the shock and uncertainty which saw him limp over the line in the Third Round. Last time out Novak Djokovic was only broken once by Milos Raonic and he won a healthy amount of return points which has restored the World Number 1 and eight time Australian Open Champion to favouritism to win this tournament.
Both players have produced strong numbers in the tournament behind serve, but I have to be impressed with the Alexander Zverev returning compared with Novak Djokovic. However it would be foolish to ignore the kind of opponents each have faced and I do think the numbers would be flipped back over if these two swapped opponents.
Much depends on how Novak Djokovic is feeling- if he is close to 100% he will be leaning on the 5-2 head to head advantage he has over Alexander Zverev which becomes 4-1 when only considering their hard court meetings. One of those came in Melbourne last week as Djokovic deservedly beat Zverev in three sets at the ATP Cup where the World Number 1 faced a single break point compared with the six he created.
Their head to head numbers are heavily skewed in favour of Novak Djokovic who has held 90% of the service games played against Alexander Zverev on hard courts, while restricting his younger opponent to a 74% hold percentage in those matches. The only doubt is the injury from the Third Round, but Novak Djokovic has had some time to manage any pain he is still feeling and I think he is likely to win this one in four sets.
With the advantage Novak Djokovic has on the return of serve when these two have met on the hard courts, I think he can cover this handicap mark too on his way to yet another Semi Final at the Australian Open.
Su-Wei Hsieh-Naomi Osaka over 18.5 games: When you look at the style of the two players taking to the court you have to feel that Naomi Osaka is always going to overpower Su-Wei Hsieh and not allow the latter to even begin her bamboozling style which has earned many an upset win over the year. Su-Wei Hsieh has all of the shots, but ultimately Naomi Osaka can play first strike tennis and feel like she can take control of the match, although the aggressive approach is always a risky one if not feeling your best on the court.
The underdog has already beaten two top 20 Ranked players in this tournament, although one of those was against Bianca Andreescu who had not played in any competitive tournament since the end of 2019. Even then it was an impressive win for Su-Wei Hsieh who has only dropped a single set in her four wins so far in the tournament.
Unsurprisingly, Su-Wei Hsieh's returning numbers are the ones that catch the eye, but I have been pretty impressed with her serving for the most part too. While not as dominant as some of the big hitting players on the Tour, Hsieh has been looking after her serve to the extent that only Sara Errani has managed to earn more than six break points against her in the four matches played and that will be encouraging for the underdog.
Naomi Osaka is likely going to test that with 46% of return points won in the tournament and that despite playing opponents like Garbine Muguruza, Caroline Garcia and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who could all be considered solid servers. She has created at least seven break points in every match played in the tournament and she doubled that total in the win over Muguruza in the Fourth Round and now Naomi Osaka has to be feeling pretty confident with three Grand Slams won across the Australian and US Opens.
The conditions in Melbourne have felt faster than recent years and this match is being played in the middle of the day when the ball should move the quickest. That will be encouraging to Naomi Osaka who has produced some stunning service numbers at the Australian Open, although the last two opponents have had more success than the first two did.
Su-Wei Hsieh has lost four of the previous five matches against Naomi Osaka and they will be meeting each other for the first time since August 2019. However I do think it should be noted how close those previous matches have been despite Naomi Osaka getting the better of the majority of them and all three previous hard court matches have gone the distance.
The surprising numbers are how well Su-Wei Hsieh has served in those three matches and she has actually created more break points in two of those matches than Naomi Osaka has managed to create. She has won 40% of return points against the Osaka serve and Su-Wei Hsieh could make this a closer match than most anticipate if she can begin to get a read of where Naomi Osaka is targeting and drag her into some longer rallies.
Most are expecting a blow out for the Japanese player, but I think Hsieh can contribute to this match and it may go longer than most are predicting.
Serena Williams-Simona Halep over 21.5 games: There are some tremendous Quarter Final matches that are going to take place at the Australian Open over the next couple of days, but on Tuesday this Women's Quarter Final looks like the match of the day. Both Serena Williams and Simona Halep have won multiple Grand Slam titles, although the former has obviously dominated the sport to the point where she is one Slam away from matching Margaret Court's record number of Singles titles.
That has been the case since Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2017 and while she has reached the Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open since then, her best run at Melbourne has been the Quarter Final in 2019. Last year she was upset in the Third Round and Serena Williams need to knuckle down and use all of her experience to beat Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round over the weekend.
The experience is invaluable, but it won't be enough to see off Simona Halep who beat Serena Williams in their most recent meeting- Williams has a 9-2 head to head advantage, but it was the underdog Halep who won the Wimbledon Final when these two met in July 2019 and the former World Number 1 is someone who will play her game and try and dictate the direction the match takes rather than hoping Serena Williams is off her game.
Simona Halep also needed three sets to get through her Fourth Round match against Iga Swiatek and Halep has been serving well enough to only offer up seven break points across her last two wins. She hasn't been very good at saving them with four ending up being converted into breaks of serve, but Simona Halep also has a very effective return and she will be playing with some belief in her own game.
Returning has also been a strength for Serena Williams in this tournament with 49% of those played being won, and she will be well aware that she is going to see a lot more balls in this one compared to the last match against the big hitting Belarusian Sabalenka. That will give Williams a chance to get into attack mode and try and avoid the longer rallies which could see her wear down physically against someone like Halep.
For Simona Halep the key will be to try and get enough first serves in to prevent Williams from doing that, while she will also need to be effective against the second serves she is facing. In this tournament players have had successes attacking the Serena second serve and those two aspects for vital for the Romanian in her convincing win over Williams in the Wimbledon Final.
Serena Williams has won the last six between these two on a hard court and that includes wins at the US Open and Australian Open. However both matches have needed to go the distance and the match here in the Fourth Round two years ago was very close and could easily have ended up in a Simona Halep win on another day.
In both of those hard court Grand Slam matches, Simona Halep has served well enough to stay with Serena Williams and at this stage of her career I do think the former has a real chance. The layers feel the same with this being a pick 'em match, but regardless of the winner it would be a surprise if there aren't some twists and turns which could see the match going long in terms of the total games being played.
Even a competitive two setter could see the line covered and in the conditions and with the way both have been playing I think this will be a tight match. At the end of it all I think the Serena Williams first serve may prove to be the key to the outcome of the match, but I would not be surprised if this is another meeting between the two players that needs to go the distance to be decided in Melbourne and I will look for that to be the main outcome of the match.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Su-Wei Hsieh-Naomi Osaka Over 18.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams-Simona Halep Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 40-37, - 3.30 Units (154 Units Staked, - 2.14% Yield)
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