Some have been concerned about the impact of having so many arrive from different parts of the world, while you can't criticise anyone for feeling unease about the situation. Locals were perhaps not so keen on hosting the Australian Open this year, but I do think the organisers have done a good job to this point and sports have proven to provide a welcome distraction from the grim realities around us.
Of course it is important the players and all those around them as well as the local communities are kept as safe as possible and so the Australian Open will have a different feel to normal times. However I am glad we are going to get two weeks of strong tennis with the Tours really getting underway for the 2021 year at this moment.
I have written down a few thoughts about the draws for the Men's and Women's Single tournaments that are going to be played in Melbourne and with some Outright selections which can be read here.
As with most seasons, I don't really get into the Tennis Picks until the Australian Open gets underway with the limited tournaments that are played in the lead up to the first Grand Slam of the season. It has been a longer wait than usual to get the 2021 tournament underway, but I still felt it was a good idea to take a watching brief of the events that Tennis Australia put on with players coming out of quarantine and having limited practice time as well as competitive matches.
Some players look to be showing they are in tip top form already, but this is potentially going to be a stranger Grand Slam than most with the suggestion that the quarantine rules might have a serious impact on individuals in vastly different ways.
It is something that may be worth keeping in mind, but there look to be solid options to get the tournament underway on Day 1 when the top half of the Men's drawn and the bottom half of the Women's draw have their First Round matches scheduled to be played.
That means the likes of Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams, Simona Halep, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem are all going to be out there on Day 1, but they will benefit from the relatively mild conditions in Melbourne on Monday. Temperatures look to be rocketing upwards in the next three days and being able to play in the cooler conditions will certainly help players who are not as prepared for the Australian Open as they would be if things were different.
John Millman - 1.5 sets v Corentin Moutet: There are ten years between John Millman and Corentin Moutet, but I think the veteran Australian can win his opening match in his home Grand Slam.
A couple of matches were placed under the belt in the ATP Cup earlier this week and it is hard to really know what kind of form John Millman is in on the extremely small sample we have. Instead you can see the Aussie has been relatively consistent on the hard courts in recent seasons and there is little sign of decline in the 31 year old who is still capable of winning matches at this level.
He is once again approaching his peak World Ranking and a strong run at the Australian Open could see John Millman crack the top 30. The numbers on the hard courts in the last couple of seasons have been very similar with John Millman winning around 64% of the service points played and just under 38% of the return points which has led to Millman holding around 80% of service games and breaking in 23%.
Against an opponent of the level of Corentin Moutet I do think those numbers are impressive enough for John Millman to be rightly favoured and I think he can be beat the young Frenchman who is still searching for consistency. Corentin Moutet is coming in off a strong week having reached the Semi Final of one of the warm up events that were hosted in Melbourne, but over the last couple of years it is the breaks of serve which have let him down on this surface.
The Frenchman has similar kind of service numbers as John Millman, but in 2019 and 2020 he broke serve significantly fewer times than his opponent in the First Round here. His five matches played in Melbourne over the last week will be encouraging for Corentin Moutet and give him confidence, but he has never won a match at the Australian Open and that could play on the mind.
John Millman does not exactly have a record to write home about in this Grand Slam, but he has not lost in the First Round since 2015 and his best Slam performances have been on the hard courts here in Melbourne and in New York City. Even at this stage of his career, I think Millman can use his superior returning to edge out Corentin Moutet and I would expect him to do that in three or four sets.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Marcos Giron: There are going to be plenty of eyes on Alexander Zverev in the 2021 season as many look to see whether the German can pick himself up from the disappointing defeat in the US Open Final in September 2020. You can't get any closer to winning a Grand Slam without winning one, although the strong finish to the end of the 2020 calendar year will give his fans confidence.
For a long time fans have been expecting Alexander Zverev to take the next step in his career and that is by winning a Grand Slam title, but it does feel that his window is not as big as it once was. With the Big Three still playing as well as any player out there and the improvement of the likes of Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev will be hoping he can fly under the radar and play his tennis without the sense of expectation on his shoulders.
Losses to Djokovic and Medvedev in the ATP Cup will mean most will be looking elsewhere at potential Australian Open Champions, but Zverev should be capable of producing a good win to open his run in Melbourne. He is a very competent hard court player, although you would like to see Alexander Zverev improve his service numbers to make life a little easier for himself.
This looks a good chance for Alexander Zverev to make a comfortable progression through the First Round when he faces American Marcos Giron who only reached his career best World Ranking of Number 70 last month. At 27 years old you do have to wonder if Marcos Giron is reaching his peak performance level, but his numbers are considerably weaker than Zverev's on the hard courts and especially when it comes to the return of serve.
It likely means the favourite can work his way through the match without too many concerns about his second serve, which has been a hindrance to Zverev, while Marcos Giron has seen his service holds slip to under 80% when he plays at the main ATP level. You don't want to completely dismiss the chances of Giron who has a 6-11 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked players and that only drops to 2-6 when facing top 20 Ranked players.
However Marcos Giron has given up at least eight break point chances in seven of those eight matches and his break percentage drops alarmingly to 10%. If Alexander Zverev is focused, which he should be in a Grand Slam tournament, I think he will be able to grind down Giron over the best of five set format and he should find the breaks of serve to eventually pull clear of the mark for the match.
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The World Number 1, the two time defending Champion at the Australian Open and the favourite to win the tournament over the next two weeks will open his time in Melbourne in the Night Session on Day 1 of the event. Novak Djokovic also brings in a 13-0 winning record against Jeremy Chardy and I think it would be the kind of shock that won't be surpassed in the next fortnight if the top Seed is not playing again in a couple of days time.
The two wins at the ATP Cup suggests Novak Djokovic is in good nick and he has spoken of the kind of comfort level he has in Melbourne even if some of the off-court activities have not exactly endeared him to the paying public. I still expect Novak Djokovic to have plenty of support and he remains the top hard court player in the world even if the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev are getting closer to him all the time.
Motivation won't be in question as Djokovic has spoken clearly about wanting to end his career with more Grand Slam titles than rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and Melbourne has been his Slam where Wimbledon and the French Open have been associated with the other two players respectively. Last year Novak Djokovic won for the eighth time here and is overall numbers on the hard courts remain at a very high level.
It is a big test for Jeremy Chardy who has dropped to World Number 66 in the Rankings and who had a 2-5 record on the hard courts last season. 2020 was not a normal year on the Tour, but Chardy is always under pressure to serve well against the top names he faces because his break numbers have not really been very good on the surface for a lot longer than the last twelve months.
The Frenchman has reached two Semi Finals this year which has to be confidence building for him, but Jeremy Chardy has to be a little troubled by the fact he has held just 74% of service games played despite those runs. It is particularly the case when going up against Novak Djokovic who wins 43% of the return points played against Jeremy Chardy which has led to breaks of serve in 35% of return games played.
Novak Djokovic has simply not given much away to Jeremy Chardy and it builds immense pressure on the serve of the latter and the Frenchman has yet to win a set against the World Number 1. The break percentage does drop to 30% in their seven hard court matches which might make this handicap mark a tough one to overcome, but Novak Djokovic has broken the Jeremy Chardy serve 48% of the time in their four Grand Slam matches and all have seen him win by at least a ten game margin.
A couple of the sets could be tight, but I think Novak Djokovic is always capable of winning at least one set in a 6-1 scoreline and that should give him a chance of covering this mark. Jeremy Chardy's two hard court Grand Slam defeats came in pretty routine fashion and Djokovic can push through for a good win.
Denis Shapovalov-Jannik Sinner over 38.5 games: Two young, vibrant and extremely talented players meet in what could easily be described as the best of the Men's First Round matches at the Australian Open in 2021. Both Denis Shapovalov and Jannik Sinner are going to be expecting to be challenging for Grand Slam titles in the years ahead, and there are signs that those years are going to come around sooner rather than later.
The two losses at the ATP Cup against some of the very best players on the Tour will have hurt Denis Shapovalov, but he wasn't completely outclassed by Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev. I am not sure he is going to be able to compete against them in much better fashion at the Australian Open, but a First Round exit would be a big disappointment for a player who reached the US Open Quarter Final a few months ago.
It won't be easy to get through the First Round when Shapovalov is set to play Jannik Sinner, a title winner in the warm up events for the Australian Open. The Italian is already at a career high World Ranking, but at 19 years old there is so much more to come from Jannik Sinner and there is much excitement about the future he is going to have on the Tour.
There is still some learning to be done on the hard courts, but Sinner did have a decent mark of 80% of service games behind held and just under 25% of return games seeing him break. His returning is certainly looking like a stronger part of his game than Denis Shapovalov's who has broken in less than 20% of return games played on the hard courts in each of the last two seasons and who earned just four break points in two matches at the ATP Cup.
Even at 21 years old, the Canadian does have the experience edge but the return edge could prove crucial for Jannik Sinner in what looks a very competitive First Round match.
The lefty Denis Shapovalov serve is going to be a big weapon too, but I would be surprised if this match is going to be concluded in straight sets for either player. With the way they match up with each other, I have to give a very narrow edge to Jannik Sinner, although I do think the long week in the legs could just see him run out of steam the longer this match goes.
My feeling is that we are going to have to see a couple of tie-breakers to sort through this and the two players could exchange the early sets which would put the match in a position to cover the total games line. Both should be able to have enough serving success to see this match go long enough and this should be a fun one to watch in what could be the start of a long rivalry on the ATP Tour.
Katie Boulter + 4.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: There are a number of British players that have headed over to Melbourne to take part in the Australian Open and one of those is hoping for an injury free 2021 after what has been a disappointing number of months. Katie Boulter hit her peak World Ranking in February 2019, but injuries have prevented her development and she is now playing on a Protected Ranking having fallen outside the World's top 200.
There is pressure to not only compete, but pick up wins when you are on a Protected Ranking and Katie Boulter has put a couple of the board in the warm up event for the Australian Open. She was also competitive in the defeat to Naomi Osaka and that should be encouraging for Boulter as she comes in as a pretty big underdog in the First Round match.
It isn't that long ago that Daria Kasatkina was inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, but her form has deserted her over the last two and a half years. There is a clearly a quality player inside her, but Kasatkina's serve has left her vulnerable and it has given opponents the chance to get on top of her.
The 3-2 start on the hard courts in 2021 will be encouraging and Kasatkina has shown significant improvement in the service numbers in those matches. However it is an extremely small sample to believe that is the way Kasatkina has developed, and I do think someone like Katie Boulter has enough about her to keep things competitive even in a losing effort.
With the expectation on Daria Kasatkina's shoulders, I do think a steady performance from Boulter will be enough to keep this one close. The British player would love to see an improvement in her return numbers, but she has a decent serve and the conditions in Melbourne may suit her on Monday as may have commented it could be a quicker surface that they are playing on.
At 23 years old I have no doubt that we have not seen the best of Daria Kasatkina just yet, but it can't be ignored that she has lost in the First Round at the US Open and Australian Open in her last four appearances across those tournaments. The belief that she should be winning matches like this one only builds the pressure on players and I think it will give Katie Boulter an opportunity to showcase some of her own skills.
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Vera Zvonareva: You have to give someone a lot of credit for the passion they clearly have for the sport when they are still chugging along on the Tour at 36 years old and with their best years clearly behind them. Vera Zvonareva is a former World Number 2 who reached the Finals at the US Open and Wimbledon while twice being a Semi Finalist at the Australian Open, but injury set her back and she comes into the 2021 event outside of the World's top 100.
In more recent times it has been a struggle for Vera Zvonareva to rediscover her form and she has won just a single Grand Slam match in the main draw since 2015. The early form in 2021 hasn't looked too bad, but Zvonareva will be the first to note that she has yet to beat a player inside the top 69 in the World Rankings and in recent years the Russian has struggled to compete with top 50 players on the hard courts.
A compatriot who is sixteen years Vera Zvonareva's junior and who is Ranked inside the top 20 is the First Round opponent and I am a big fan of Elena Rybakina and what she could achieve in the years ahead. She was beaten in her first match in the warm up tournament she played in this week, but Elena Rybakina did push Aryna Sabalenka all the way in a Quarter Final last month and is a player on the definite improvement trail.
The hard court numbers have been strong from Rybakina, although she would need to improve the returning aspect to take the next step in her development. Elena Rybakina's serve is a big weapon though and she is on the right road to produce a new career best World Ranking in the weeks ahead.
I do think the serve is going to be the difference maker between these players on the day and the potentially faster conditions should help Elena Rybakina break through the Vera Zvonareva defences. The latter is someone who has shown she can really knuckle down and make life hard for opponents, but I think Rybakina is going to have too much power for her older compatriot whose best tennis is behind her.
Over the last two years Elena Rybakina has really dominated those players that she is expected to beat and I think we will see the same on Day 1 at the Australian Open as she moved into the Second Round with a solid looking win.
MY PICKS: John Millman - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov-Jannik Sinner Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Katie Boulter + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
2021: - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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