The Australian Open is the only Grand Slam I can think of that plays three Semi Final matches in the Singles tournament on one day and the other one the following day.
It has long felt like it might not be ideal for the Men's tournament with the winner of one half of the draw being given a day less to prepare for the Sunday Final, although at least it is better than what the US Open used to do with the Final played a day after the Semi Finals.
This also means Day 11 is the last really busy one at the Australian Open and for us over in the United Kingdom there will be no more night tennis after this day is completed and placed in the books. The two Women's Semi Finals are played during the day, with the remainder of the Men's tournament now going to be completed in the Night Sessions at Melbourne Park.
And importantly the fans are back!
I can't help but imagine how good the atmosphere would have been during the Day 10 Quarter Finals with Stefanos Tsitsipas fighting back from 0-2 down in sets to beat Rafael Nadal. The Greek youngster gets a huge amount of support in Melbourne and he will be looking forward to playing in front of the fans on Friday and hopefully Sunday too.
Ashleigh Barty could have done with the fans too after blowing a set and a break lead in her Quarter Final defeat, but there are still some big matches to come and there will be a presence in the stands. The atmosphere in Melbourne does tend to be amongst the best you will see on the Tour and I think it will only add to the spectacle of the Semi Finals and Finals to be played over the next four days.
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Serena Williams: The draw has panned out in such a way that many will consider this the de facto Women's Final when Naomi Osaka takes on Serena Williams in the first of the three Semi Finals to be played on Day 11 at the Australian Open. Both are the two remaining Grand Slam Champions in the draw and they are guaranteed to meet a first time Finalist which will only increase the edge in the favour of one of these two players.
Whoever wins will almost certainly be going into the Final as a relatively big favourite, but this is a tough Semi Final for both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams. There is pressure on the shoulders of both players and their previous three matches have tended to have very little rhythm broken up with all of those finishing in straight sets for the winning player.
Those three matches have barely been competitive once the player getting on top has gotten into that position- Naomi Osaka leads the head to head 2-1, including that famous win in the 2018 US Open Final, but their most recent match came the following year in Canada which was won by Serena Williams without facing a single break point on the day.
Serving is going to be absolutely massive in this Semi Final and the player who can get the higher percentage of first serves in play will feel they can control the match. During the tournament it is Serena Williams who has had the edge in first serve percentage made, but it is a narrow edge and Naomi Osaka has been able to protect the second serve more effectively of the two players.
The return edge is with Serena Williams too as she chases down Margaret Court's record for Grand Slam Singles titles won, and that is something that Naomi Osaka will have to be aware of as she looks to play first strike tennis against her idol. The American has won over 50% of points on the return in four of her five matches so far this week, while Naomi Osaka has not managed to do the same since the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
However Naomi Osaka has found the right moments to go on the attack on the return and has actually created more break points than Serena Williams in the last two Rounds combined. That shows her game is more than healthy enough to take on this challenge, while the match is scheduled at a time when the court conditions should be quick to make the serve the key shot for both players.
I have been impressed with the Serena Williams fitness in the tournament so far, but this is not a match that is really going to test that. I expect plenty of short rallies, big hitting and both players hitting through a fast court and much is going to come down to the fine margins.
Overall it does feel like this is going to be competitive, but Naomi Osaka may have the slight edge with the superior second serve, although much of the match is going to be played between the ears. The fans are going to back in attendance as far as the plans have been made, and that should make this a vibrant atmosphere for the players to perform in and it is very hard to oppose Serena Williams with the kind of form she has displayed.
However she was a touch fortunate to get past Aryna Sabalenk and I think Naomi Osaka is a better version of the Belarusian at this stage of their careers. The Japanese superstar has won three Grand Slam titles so I would be disappointed if nerves were to get the better of her and with the slightly superior serving numbers I think it will be Osaka who takes her place in the Final on Saturday and keep Serena waiting a little longer for her 24th Grand Slam Singles title.
Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady over 21.5 games: After reaching the Semi Final at the US Open back in September, the Jennifer Brady run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open is perhaps a less surprising one than the run Karolina Muchova has had in the tournament. Both players are looking to reach a Grand Slam Final for the first time and both came through difficult Quarter Final matches when they trailed by a set before tuning the match around in their own favour.
The Brady run has been much more impressive in terms of her performances, but Karolina Muchova has had three upset wins in a row when she has had to fight back from tough spots within those matches. Those wins can only build confidence, although not everyone was happy with the Medical TimeOut in her win over Ashleigh Barty on Wednesday even if it is something that is within the rules of the sport.
Without a doubt it changed the momentum of the match irreversibly having trailed by a set and a break at the time before Karolina Muchova was able to run through the next two sets with eleven games won out of fourteen played. Her opponent didn't complain, but it is clear that most feel it was a tactical decision rather than an actual medical issue and Muchova was able to use the time to clear her head.
She will feel she has the momentum with wins over Karolina Pliskova, Elise Mertens and Barty behind her, but this is not going to be an easier match. Nerves will be a factor in a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final, but Jennifer Brady experienced the spot just a few months ago and was able to push Naomi Osaka the distance before losing to the eventual Champion.
Her serve is a powerful weapon and Jennifer Brady has to believe it gives her a chance to win this match- in the last Round she did have some struggles on the serve, but the American still won over 80% of the first serve points played and that kind of number is one that will always give her a chance to win matches having started 2021 in strong form.
However it should be noted that Jennifer Brady has not had to beat a single opponent Ranked higher than World Number 33 in the tournament so far. At this stage Karolina Muchova has beaten three top 16 Ranked players and that difference is one that will give Muchova confidence that she is not such an underdog in the match.
There is no doubting that Karolina Muchova has not served as well as Jennifer Brady, but the fight and belief she has shown makes her dangerous. In their sole previous match on the Tour, Karolina Muchova deservedly beat Jennifer Brady, but it took three sets and was played on the clay and the latter is much improved from that meeting in April 2019.
This does feel like it is going to be a close match and one that could potentially go the distance- the conditions should favour Jennifer Brady, but it is hard to ignore the belief Karolina Muchova has had to turn matches back around in her favour. Players have had more success going after the Jennifer Brady second serve and that could be a good avenue for Muchova to have her own chances to win this match, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if this match goes the distance.
Even two tight, competitive sets could be enough to cover this total games line and I think both Jennifer Brady and Karolina Muchova are playing with enough confidence to not lose belief in their own game. My lean goes towards Brady, but Karolina Muchova has made it a habit to fight back from what looks like inevitable losing positions and this could be another close match.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: I have little doubt that Novak Djokovic was shocked by whatever he pulled in his eventual Third Round win over Taylor Fritz, but his performances in the last two Rounds suggests he is more than coping with the situation. The eight time Australian Open is favourite to win another title in Melbourne and I think the fact that his remaining two matches will be played under the lights will only aid him.
Novak Djokovic would have been the favourite to beat most players on the Melbourne Park courts once he got to this stage of the tournament, but that position has been strengthened by the fact he is playing an unheralded opponent. No one could have really predicted the kind of run Aslan Karatsev has had at the Australian Open and he will be looking to match the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga who have made the Men's Final out of left field in recent times.
Make no mistake, an Aslan Karatsev appearance in the Final would be a much bigger surprise than either of those two players. The Qualifier has become only the second since 1977 to reach the Australian Open Semi Final after overcoming a clearly hobbled Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final, while he is also the lowest Ranked player to reach the last four of a Major in thirty years too.
He has nothing to lose and Aslan Karatsev has shown remarkable poise even when he has been put under pressure, a real surprise considering he he has never played in the main draw of a Grand Slam before. No other debutant has managed to enjoy the kind of run the Russian has so far in Melbourne, and he has recovered from slow starts to win his last two matches.
So many records have tumbled, but Karatsev was fortunate to be playing an injured Dimitrov in the Quarter Final who couldn't serve or more as he would have hoped. Barring something similar happening to Novak Djokovic, it is hard to make a serious case for the underdog to upset the odds. He was two sets down against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round and was being dominated in the match before turning things around, but again it is very hard to believe he can do that against the World Number 1 who has dominated the Australian Open over the years.
There has to be a little concern in the Russian's camp that the three sets he has lost in the tournament have come by 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3 scores and now he is going up a considerable level. Beating Felix Auger-Aliassime is a solid result, but it was a match that could have easily gone the other way, while a match against an injured Grigor Dimitrov is not the same as facing what has looked a relatively healthy Novak Djokovic.
The latter was fortunate to beat Alexander Zverev who had chances in three of the four sets played, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court. It is a surprise that two of the last three Djokovic opponents have earned more break points in the match than the World Number 1, but the same has happened to Aslan Karatsev and Novak Djokovic has had the superior serving numbers in the tournament.
Aslan Karatsev's run in the Australian Open has been a real Cinderella story, but the feeling is that the clock is going to strike midnight in this Semi Final. While I can see a couple of sets being competitive, I think Novak Djokovic is going to be a little more comfortable with more time to recover since the Third Round win last week and I believe his returning will eventually crack his opponent.
This is a big number for a Semi Final and Novak Djokovic has had one of his more difficult Australian Opens to this point, but he should have the returning skills to fashion the break points that an injured Dimitrov and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman managed against Aslan Karatsev. The evening conditions may also have an affect with this being the first time the underdog will have played in them in the tournament and I think Novak Djokovic earns his spot in Sunday's Final with a strong win when all is said and done.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open 2021: 43-42, - 8.36 Units (170 Units Staked, - 4.92% Yield)
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