We have reached the NFL Play Offs and I am looking forward to the final month of the season where there is the potential for some huge stories to be written and some brilliant games to be played.
Wild Card Weekend looks a good one and I will add to this thread on Saturday evening.
However I wanted to at least place my Wild Card Picks from the Saturday games to be read during the day with the Sunday selections to come.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Two teams coming out of the AFC South will be playing each other on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Play Offs and the Houston Texans (11-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) both won one game against the other in the regular season. It was the road team who came away with the win in each of those regular season meetings and the Indianapolis Colts will feel good about their chances of doing that again when they return to Houston.
Both games were very close and very competitive after the Texans fought back in the second game to almost complete the comeback against the Colts. I fully expect this opening Wild Card Game to be a very good one too and I think we can all watch out for some big plays through the air as both teams are going to have some issues establishing the run.
Marlon Mack has been very good for the Colts to give the Offensive unit some balance, but he is now going up against a very strong Houston Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season. They've been even stronger in their last three games to close the regular season and while I don't think the Colts will completely ignore the run, I think Mack may be more effective catching short passes coming out of the backfield.
The Colts may also try running the ball in different ways than into the heart of the Houston Defensive Line, while another way to open things up on the ground is by getting the passing game going early and often. With Andrew Luck at Quarter Back I do think that is a viable option considering the holes we have seen in the Houston Secondary .
In their last game TY Hilton burned Houston constantly and he is still performing very well even through the knocks and niggles that is affecting his ability to practice. Eric Ebron is another big time target for the Colts and the Offensive Line will feel they can keep Luck's pocket pretty clean even though they are facing JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trying to get into the backfield.
Giving Luck even a semblance of time should see the Colts moving the ball effectively and I think that will shift the pressure onto Houston to perhaps have to keep up with them.
Like the Colts, Houston may not be able to establish the run in the traditional way in this game. Lamar Miller hasn't had much success against the Texans in the 2018 season and I think he won't find it much easier against the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has been strong up front thanks to some good play from their Linebackers.
Much pressure will be shouldered by their own Quarter Back but Deshaun Watson has led Clemson to the National Championship and is very confident in his position. His legs may be as important as his arm in this one as he can help run the read-option very well, while scrambling away from pressure is going to be key for Watson if he is going to move the ball.
Houston's Offensive Line has struggled to protect Watson so I imagine the Colts will be able to get into the backfield whenever they have Houston in obvious passing downs and the Quarter Back is likely going to be Sacked a few times. However he can move around and also take off for big yards, which is very important in this game, and Watson can always throw the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins who comes down with anything within his wingspan.
I can definitely see Watson having some success throwing the ball too in what could be a fun game, but the Houston Offensive Line problems are going to be costly for them in my opinion. The pressure on Watson is likely going to lead to some key Sacks and potentially turnovers which should give the Colts the edge and I can see why the sharps have been on them earlier in the week to trim this spread.
The road team has been very strong in this series between two Divisional rivals and Indianapolis are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series too which strengthens my feeling that the Colts can win this game outright.
The Texans are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, while Indianapolis have covered in their last six against winning teams. Andrew Luck's Play Off experiences may just give him the edge over Deshaun Watson even though the latter has won big College games previously, while the Offensive Line issues for Houston could be costly and definitely something to fix in the Draft.
I will take the points on offer with the road team here.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The second Wild Card Game of the weekend is yet another rematch, but this time the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) will host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as a Divisional winner. These teams met in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks were able to come away with the win, but both teams will believe they are in much better form when they face one another in arguably the best of the four Wild Card Games.
This is also another game that the layers are finding quite difficult to work out and giving Dallas the slight edge on the spread could have come down to the simple fact that they are hosting this game.
The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games including a dead rubber against the New York Giants in Week 17, while the Seahawks have won six of their last seven games to earn a Wild Card spot. There is a difference with the home/road record of the Cowboys which puts them in a good position to win this game and that is they are 7-1 at home this season, although this has the makings of a very close game.
Both teams have been built to run the ball and the team that can establish the run best is going to win this game. I feel like Dallas may have the slight edge there when you see how well their Defensive Line has clamped down on the run for much of the 2018 regular season.
However there is no doubt that the Cowboys have performed much better at home when defending the run and that could put Seattle in a very difficult position to find the consistency to move the ball. On the other hand Ezekiel Elliot should be well rested having missed the win over the Giants in Week 17 and he is facing a Seattle Defensive Line that has not been able to play the run as well as they would have liked.
There has been a few issues for the Dallas Offensive Line in getting Elliot established, but the presence of Amari Cooper means Seattle can't focus on loading the box. It should give Elliot and Dallas the chance to establish the run and that can make life all the more comfortable for Dak Prescott.
I am not completely convinced Prescott is the long-term answer at Quarter Back for Dallas and a big decision needs to be made soon about whether the Cowboys want to invest in him. He can make some big time throws, but Prescott can overthrow wide open Receivers when not at his best although the rapport with Amari Cooper means Dallas should have some success throwing the ball.
Being in third and manageable spots means Prescott can avoid being put under severe pressure by the Seattle pass rush and I do think that is the key to the outcome of this game.
While I see Dallas having success running the ball, I did say it will be difficult for Seattle to do the same. If that is the case the Cowboys Defensive Ends should be able to penetrate the backfield and put Russell Wilson under immense pressure when he drops back to throw, especially if he is in third and long spots.
Wilson is a very good Quarter Back and someone I respect for everything he has achieved in his career. There is no doubt he can escape some of the pressure with his scrambling ability and Wilson may be the top passer on the run which means the Dallas Secondary will be asked to cover speedy and tricky Receivers for a long time.
With that in mind I do think Seattle will have success throwing the ball, but Dallas have been performing very well Defensively and the home performances suggest the Cowboys may just edge this one. I expect a little more consistency from the Cowboys and only a really poor day from Dak Prescott is going to hard to overcome with the Dallas Defense perhaps stepping up and winning the game for their team.
Both teams have some very good trends and some very poor ones that can be pointed to, but I do think Dallas are the better team in most areas barring Quarter Back. Winning in the trenches is so important at Play Off time and that is where I do think the Cowboys can beat Seattle and I think that will lead to the home team moving on to a possible rematch with the New Orleans Saints.
I hate opposing Russell Wilson who can be huge in big games, but I don't think the Seattle Offensive Line will do enough to help him win this one.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are two NFL rematches being played in Saturday's Wild Card Games and the opening Play Off Game on Sunday features another. It has only been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) kept their Play Off hopes alive with a win on the West Coast against the Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) and that means they also have the chance to host this Play Off Game on the East Coast and in the early time slot which should favour the home team.
The Week 16 win for the Ravens over the Chargers had big implications for Los Angeles too as they were handed the Number 5 spot in the AFC despite finishing with the second best record in the Conference. If they had won the game at home they would have been enjoying a Bye Week in the Wild Card Round and will also have had home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.
Being on the road won't be a massive concern for the Chargers though as they finished with the best road record in the AFC.
Having had a week to see Lamar Jackson up close should also help the Chargers who could not have played as poorly as they did in Week 16. Philip Rivers admitted he set the negative tempo by throwing an Interception to open that game, but he will be boosted by the return of Melvin Gordon at Running Back and Keenan Allen at Wide Receiver.
Allen played in Week 16 but he should be much healthier now as the Chargers get set to take on a very strong Baltimore Defensive unit that may only be second to the Chicago Bears of the teams who made the Play Offs. The Chargers know that Rivers can't make the back-breaking mistakes that he did in Week 16 if they are going to turn the tide in this Play Off Game, but the key could be the return of Gordon at Running Back.
As strong as the Ravens have been at clamping down on the run, Gordon is a special Running Back and the Chargers will need him to keep the Baltimore Defensive unit honest. Melvin Gordon could have some success in this one, while he will also be important for Rivers coming out of the backfield as the safety valve if plays are not open down the field.
Staying in third and manageable is the key for the Chargers if they are going to move the chains because the Offensive Line has not played as well as they would have liked in recent games. It has seen Rivers put under significant pressure, but that will change if they are able to run the ball and at least slow down any pass rush.
Turnovers will be key on this side of the ball as the Chargers look to avoid the mistakes that cost them in what was a very close game two weeks ago.
The Chargers Defensive unit will also feel they have some strong tape on Lamar Jackson now and that should give them a chance to at least find a way to confuse the rookie Quarter Back. Most will know what to expect as Jackson has sparked the Baltimore running game, but the Chargers are decent up front and I do think the experience of facing this Quarter Back once will see them find a way to make some big plays on the line of scrimmage.
It won't be easy for Los Angeles to clamp down completely on the run-option plays that the Ravens will run. With the ability Jackson has he is sure to help crack some big plays, but the key for the Chargers is to force him to have to throw the ball to keep the chains moving during the game.
There are some holes in the Los Angeles Secondary, but I am not sure Baltimore will be able to expose them as much as some of the other teams in the Play Offs. The pass rush up front should also be able to make some plays in the backfield and I do think the Chargers can overcome some of the factors outside of their control like the venue of the game and the kick off time to cover the spread.
The road team and the underdog have been strong against the spread when the Chargers and Ravens have played in recent seasons. It was Baltimore who covered as the road underdog in Week 16, but I think the Chargers can flip the script this time.
Both teams have been very good in Play Off Games in recent years, but the Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at home. Over the last few years the Chargers have improved to 21-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty road games and I like them here with a full Field Goal worth of points to start with.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Pick: Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.
I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.
Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.
Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.
Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.
Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.
The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.
There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.
I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.
Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.
The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.
Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.
The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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