Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2019 (January 21st)

The Quarter Final line up is beginning to take shape with half of the matches in both the men's and women's half of the draw.

One surprise is the fact that Roger Federer is not going to be one of the eight remaining players in the men's draw after he was beaten in four sets in the Fourth Round against Stefanos Tsitsipas. It was a huge effort from the young Greek player, but Federer was right to be critical of himself and the failure to take any of a host of break points secured in the second set and that really did feel like the key part of the match.

I also tend to agree with Federer in calling this a changing of the guard would be premature especially with both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal favourites to make it through to the Final from this point.

Rafael Nadal in particular has looked very, very good so far in the tournament and the exit of Federer has opened up the bottom half of the draw for him. The Spaniard helped himself by crushing Tomas Berdych in the Fourth Round and it is hard to see which of the other three players in his half of the draw can stop him reaching another Australian Open Final.


The women's draw didn't escape the upsets on Sunday with both Sloane Stephens and Angelique Kerber exiting the tournament. The winner of the Petra Kvitova versus Ashleigh Barty Quarter Final will be a big favourite to reach the Final, but Danielle Collins and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have nothing to lose having surpassed all expectations by making the last eight.


On Day 8 the remaining Quarter Final matches will be set as the Fourth Round comes to a conclusion. There are some top matches to come on Monday as we begin to get closer and closer to the business end of the tournament.

Will there be more upsets? It is obviously possible, but the I am not so sure about it compared to the bottom half of the draw where those upsets have mainly resided.


Alexander Zverev-Milos Raonic over 44.5 games: Once you get to the Fourth Round of any of the Grand Slams that are played over the course of a season you have to expect to see some really good looking matches being put together.

The Australian Open is no different and this match between Milos Raonic and Alexander Zverev really has all the makings of being a classic.

Both players have been in very strong form in Australia and both possess a very big serve that can offer up plenty of short balls and cheap points that makes them hard to beat. Alexander Zverev is yet to have the same kind of impact at the Grand Slam level as opponent Milos Raonic has been able to have, but he is coming into the match as a narrow favourite although I am really finding it very difficult to separate the players.

One key difference between Zverev and Raonic is the performances against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018. The former had a 10-5 winning record, while Raonic was 2-4 in those matches, but the numbers for the two players were very similar and this has the feeling of a match that will need at least four sets and possibly go the distance as it did when Zverev and Raonic met at Wimbledon in 2017.

Over the last week both Zverev and Raonic have very strong serving numbers with the German holding 88% of his service games and Raonic up at 93%. One difference is Zverev seems to have gotten more out of his return game, and I do think that may end up being what separates the two, but the serving should lead the day and I would not be surprised if we are going to see a couple of tie-breakers and potentially a match going the distance.

These two are playing each other for the third time and the numbers from the previous two matches shows how evenly they have been matches. Neither of those matches came on the hard courts though and I do think the serving could be a bigger weapon for both players in this big Fourth Round match.

The total games have been set on the high side, which is not a surprise, but I do think there is a real chance this number would be covered as long as the match goes at least four sets.


Borna Coric - 4.5 games v Lucas Pouille: The majority of headlines at the Australian Open would have been earned by the big names and those creating the big upsets, but these two players have just focused on working their way through the draw. While Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev are perhaps leading the way for the next generation of men's players, Borna Coric may be the best of the lot and the Croatian has already matched his best Grand Slam run and looking for a first Quarter Final at this level.

Lucas Pouille has been more familiar with featuring in the second week of a Grand Slam compared with Coric, but his back to back Quarter Final runs came at Wimbledon and the US Open in 2016. Since then Pouille has only reached a single Fourth Round in eight Slam appearances so his run to the second week has perhaps been even more surprising than Coric's.

It has to be said that Pouille was perhaps overachieving by reaching back to back Slam Quarter Finals back in 2016 and his numbers have remained pretty average on the hard courts. There is no doubting that the Frenchman has some talent, but he is perhaps still a little over-rated by some of the layers after some eye-catching runs in tournaments, but Pouille is far from consistent.

Last week was a tougher run through the first three Rounds than what Coric experienced and Pouille did need five sets in the last Round. The serve remains the key weapon for Pouille but there has been little to suggest he will maintain the numbers he has been producing in Melbourne over a long term.

There is also a pressure on the Frenchman's shoulders considering his return game is one of the poorer ones out there, especially amongst those in the top 50 of the World Rankings. I would fully expect Borna Coric to keep the pressure on Pouille having held 91% of service games in Australia and also breaking at over 28%.

Borna Coric is also perhaps serving better than expected, but he has shown improvement behind that shot in each of the last three seasons on the hard courts and is a player on the rise. It is the return of serve that the Croatian possesses which I expect to impact this match the most and the head to head is also 2-0 in favour of Coric with both of those wins coming on the hard courts.

He has managed to break the Pouille serve at just under 35% of the return games played in those two matches and I think the match up does work for Coric. As long as he can keep his nerves in check I would think Coric is good enough to win and cover this number.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: An injury suffered by Pablo Carreno Busta at the US Open saw the backend of his 2018 season fall away and the run of losses continued in Auckland to open 2019. The Spaniard has been surprisingly effective in the Grand Slams played on the hard courts in the last couple of years though and perhaps the return to the longer format of the sport was exactly what he needed.

Pablo Carreno Busta has won three matches in a row for the first time since the tournament in Winston Salem in the week prior to the US Open beginning. There clearly must have been some confidence earned from coming from 0-2 down to beat Luca Vanni in the First Round of the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has played well since then.

He has been playing some strong tennis behind the serve and there is no doubt that the Spaniard is going to need to be at his best on that side of his game if he is going to upset the odds here.

While Carreno Busta came through some hard times to win in the First Round, Kei Nishikori had to dig deep in his first two Rounds before comfortably dismissing Joao Sousa in the Third Round. Those wins means Nishikori is now up to 7-0 for 2019 having won the title in Brisbane to open 2019 and his serving numbers have been stronger than Carreno Busta's in the tournament while having a similar break number and that despite playing against the monster serve possesses by Ivo Karlovic.

Nishikori has been winning 8% more points behind serve than Carreno Busta in the first three Rounds of the tournament while there really isn't much in the returning statistics between them.

The match is not going to be straight-forward because there will be some long, gruelling rallies to deal with as neither player can really hope to earn too many easy points behind the serve. With some fitness doubts about Carreno Busta going into the tournament, those could show up the longer this match goes and I do think the superior play of Nishikori will eventually come to the fore.

It shouldn't matter if this needs four sets either as I can see Nishikori wearing down Carreno Busta and potentially putting up a set with a couple of breaks secured in it. That should give him every chance of covering this number in a victory.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: If anyone thinks the veterans are going to have an easy time holding off the 'Next Gen' of men's tennis then Stefanos Tsitsipas' win over Roger Federer on Sunday would have perhaps changed some opinions.

I also expect that win to be a very important to the old guard to perhaps refocus and double down on the efforts. On Tuesday Rafael Nadal will take on 21 year old Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final, but before that the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic takes on Daniil Medvedev who recently reached the Final in Brisbane.

The Russian youngster has been in great form in 2019 and he has built on a very successful time on the hard courts over the last six months of 2018. Daniil Medvedev has been strong behind the serve and his numbers at the Australian Open have been pretty incredible to put it frankly.

Any player holding serve at over 92% of the time and breaking at 47% is going to be winning matches very easily and that is what Medvedev has done. Sometimes those numbers can be skewed because of a kind draw, but Medvedev has beaten Ryan Harrison and David Goffin in the last couple of Rounds and confidence has to be at an extremely high level.

This does mark a step up for Medvedev who has not beaten any player inside the top 10 of the World Rankings on the hard courts since the beginning of last season. He is 0-6 in that time but I can only respect the fact that Medvedev has won at least one set in four of those matches even if his serve and return of serve have not been quite as effective in those matches.

I expect Novak Djokovic to offer the sternest of tests for Medvedev and you can't ignore how well the World Number 1 is playing at a tournament he has won six times before. With Roger Federer out, Novak Djokovic is the only player left in the men's tournament who can become the first to win the Australian Open seven times and he has been in dominant form in Melbourne.

Outside of 'Floodgate-gate', Djokovic has looked very comfortable and this is a player who has been one of the toughest returners to face. He might not have quite the same level of success as Medvedev, but Djokovic has broken in 43% of return games in the tournament and I think he is going to prove too much for his young opponent.

They have met twice before, but Medvedev is a much improved player since those matches in 2017. However what can't be ignored is the fact that Djokovic was really struggling during their two previous matches and still broke serve often in those two matches with Medvedev yet now is back to the level of World Number 1.

I do have a lot of time for Medvedev and he is developing into a top player like many expected of him. However I think Djokovic is going to be ready for this match after seeing what happened to Federer and I think he is playing at a level that will be hard for Medvedev to match.

This is a big spread, but Djokovic showed how strong the return of serve can be in his wins over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Denis Shapovalov and I think he is going to break down the Medvedev game and pull away from his opponent.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: Two players who have been a regular feature of the top 10 of the WTA World Rankings meet in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. The reason for that is Garbine Muguruza, a two time Grand Slam Champion, has struggled over the last year and see her Ranking drop down to Number 18.

The Spaniard has been in really good form in Melbourne over the last week and Muguruza is one of those players that can get very hot the deeper she gets into the tournament. Her title win at Wimbledon in 2017 really came out of left-field so I would not be too concerned about her overall form going into the Australian Open.

2018 did prove to be a tough year for Muguruza but some of that is down to the standards she has set for herself and perception of how she has played. Her numbers are solid enough on the hard courts to think she is going to be tough to beat, but Muguruza has to overcome a poor head to head record against Karolina Pliskova to get through to the Quarter Final.

While Muguruza would have been disappointed with her 2018 season, Karolina Pliskova really did have a tough season. You would expect the Czech player to be much more effective on the hard courts than she was in 2018, but the turn of the calendar year might have been all she needed to get back to a more realistic level.

So far 2019 has been a very productive time for Pliskova who has won all seven matches played having won the title in Brisbane to open the new season. Karolina Pliskova has needed three sets to win her last couple of matches here against Madison Brengle and Camila Giorgi, but she has been playing better than those dropped sets would suggest.

Both players have been in good nick and I do think this is going to be a close match, but that is where the Pliskova 7-2 head to head advantage over Muguruza could make the difference in the tight moments. Eight of those matches have been played on the hard courts and Pliskova has won seven of those although I won't ignore the fact that they have not played each other in 2018.

In previous matches the Pliskova serve has been stronger than the Muguruza delivery and proved to be the difference in matches. The Spaniard has not been able to generate nearly as many break point chances as Pliskova and I think the bigger serve of the Czech player will make the difference in a match that could go the distance on Monday.


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: Not many players have been able to beat both Williams sisters at Grand Slam events, but Simona Halep will be looking to add her name to that list. After beating Venus Williams in the Third Round, the World Number 1 faces Australian Open favourite Serena Williams in the Fourth Round and this time Simona Halep is the underdog.

You can't blame the layers for thinking that way considering the form that Serena Williams has produced at the Australian Open. She has dominated all three players she has faced, while Serena also has an incredibly strong record against Halep although the two players are meeting for the first time since September 2016.

In that time Halep has become a Grand Slam Champion and she also reached the Final at the Australian Open so I don't imagine the Romanian will feel she is the same player that has lost eight of nine matches against Serena Williams.

There were some worries about the Halep fitness going into the Australian Open but she has been playing well in Melbourne. While the serve may not be as big a weapon as the one that Williams possesses, Halep has been using the angles on the delivery effectively and she does back it up with some very consistent tennis off the ground.

It is the return of serve that has really helped Halep come through three Rounds at the Australian Open, but facing the Serena serve is the biggest challenge in women's tennis. In three matches Serena has faced just three break points and she has been as close to perfect on the serve as you could ask of any player either male or female.

Serena Williams will know about the qualities of Halep and she has to make sure her powerful groundstrokes are not gifting too many unforced errors away. So far she has been doing that and Williams has also been winning an incredible 57% of points AGAINST the serve.

I do think Halep is going to offer challenges to Serena Williams that the American has not seen so far in the Australian Open. However I am not sure it will be enough to win the match and Williams has been playing to a level that should see her break the Halep serve on enough occasions to cover this spread even if she needs three sets to beat the World Number 1 like she did when these players last met.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Milos Raonic Over 44.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 45-38, + 8.67 Units (163 Units Staked, + 5.32% Yield)