Weekend Football Picks 2019 (January 12-14)

The Premier League is back after the break for the FA Cup Third Round and the fixtures come thick and fast through the remainder of this month.

We might be almost halfway through January, but there are still three rounds of Premier League fixtures scheduled to be played, while the FA Cup Fourth Round also takes place. It is a difficult time for teams as we begin to settle into a portion of the season where silverware is handed out,

My Fantasy Football selections will also be in this thread and I will urge some caution as teams continue to rotate their starting elevens to make sure players are as fresh as possible. I will factor that into my selections as we get for a weekend where Premier League games are played from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.


West Ham United v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League returns from a short break for the FA Cup and the round of fixtures opens with a fascinating London derby between West Ham United and Arsenal hosted at the London Stadium.

It looks like having the potential of being a decent game of football and the layers are taking no chances in this one with the price on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals both very short indeed.

To be honest I was more surprised that Arsenal are considered such strong favourites to win at a ground where Manchester United and Chelsea have both failed to this season. Since then both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have won League games at the London Stadium, but Arsenal are not exactly in the best of form with a single win from 6 away Premier League games.

West Ham United might not be in tremendous form of their own, but they have shown they can score goals at home and even the recovery of a number of injured Arsenal defenders is not enough for me to favour the visitors here. The Gunners have not won on 2 of their last 3 trips to West Ham United and I do think they remain vulnerable defensively with the way Unai Emery sets his team up to play.

In saying that Emery's tactics have also put Arsenal in a very strong position going forward and they are a team that can score plenty of goals when at their best. We just haven't seen enough of that of late and I do think Arsenal are simply not having the same kind of fortune in recent weeks as they enjoyed in their long unbeaten run earlier in the season.

I expect West Ham United to challenge their visitors and I do think they can earn a positive result. Beating Arsenal at home for the first time since November 2006 might not be as far fetched as the layers seem to think, but I will just look to get behind the home team to avoid defeat at a decent looking price here.

Fantasy Star: Felipe Anderson- I would have picked Marko Arnautovic here, but the Austrian's head has been turned by a bid from a Chinese club. Someone can still take advantage of the Arsenal defensive struggles and Felipe Anderson has been in fine form for the home team.

Alternative: Aaron Ramsey- a potentially cheap way to get into the Arsenal team who have scored plenty of goals. The Welshman has been rumoured to have agreed a move to Juventus, but Unai Emery expects to see the best of Ramsey until he leaves.


Brighton v Liverpool Pick: Last season everyone wondered how Manchester City would react when they were finally beaten in the Premier League by Liverpool at Anfield in January and it turned out that it was merely a very, very slight blip on the way to winning the title.

This season the question is asked of Liverpool who saw their unbeaten run to the Premier League season ended in their last game in the competition at Manchester City ten days ago. Going out of the FA Cup in the Third Round at Wolves has only increased the importance of Liverpool responding to their League defeat in the right way and that is by winning here.

Liverpool are big favourites to do that, but I think the layers are just anticipating this team being a popular accumulator choice and they look short to say the least.

The defensive injuries means Fabinho could be employed as a makeshift centre half for this game and Brighton have come on leaps and bounds over the last eighteen months in the Premier League.

In the first six months in the top flight, Chris Hughton's men struggled against the top teams in the Premier League, but they do look much more comfortable now.

The results seem to back that up- in the 2017/18 season, Brighton were beaten by two or more goals by Chelsea (twice), Liverpool (twice), Manchester City (twice) and Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur one time each.

This season only Manchester City have been able to do that against Brighton and The Seagulls have been much more competitive against the top teams.

At home it has been better with Brighton losing narrowly to Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea, but earning a draw with Arsenal and beating Manchester United. They will look to cause problems for Liverpool, but defensively Brighton are a little better in these big games than they were and this Liverpool team can be more functional than explosive this season.

5 of Liverpool's 8 away wins in the League have come by two or more goals, but the defensive injuries may mean the manager is a little less inclined to leave his team short at the back. It may mean a tough battle awaits Liverpool and I think they may have to settle for a narrow win if Brighton do not get blown away early in the contest.

Backing the home team with more than a goal start looks appealing here considering the improvements Brighton have made at the Amex Stadium over the last twelve months.

Fantasy Star: Glenn Murray- maybe this has something to do with wanting to see Liverpool continue their blip, but the striker may be best placed to take advantage of the centre back issues for Liverpool.

Alternative: Roberto Firmino- this is a tough place to visit, but Roberto Firmino can prove to be the difference maker at a much cheaper price than Mohamed Salah.


Burnley v Fulham Pick: With 17 Premier League games left to play it is not an understatement to say this is a huge game for both Burnley and Fulham as the two clubs search for a way to avoid relegation into the Championship.

Points have been very hard to come by for both clubs through the first half of the season so fixtures against relegation rivals only increase in importance. It won't be lost on the home fans that a win for Burnley would mean they are 7 points clear of Fulham and could be a huge advantage even in January.

On the other hand a win for Fulham would leave a single point between these clubs so there is plenty on the line for both as Sean Dyche and Claudio Ranieri plot a way to help their clubs succeed.

The momentum is behind Burnley who have won 3 in a row including back to back Premier League games while getting back to basics defensively. Burnley have had 3 clean sheets in their last 4 home games and all of those games have ended in wins which was the formula for the success earned twelve months ago.

Now they face a goal-shy Fulham team who are coming in off an upset home defeat to Oldham Athletic in the FA Cup Third Round. Claudio Ranieri is asking for new players and he sounds like he can't get a consistent tune out of those at the club which puts his players under pressure to perform.

Ranieri has made Fulham a little tougher defensively, but they are going to be put under pressure by this Burnley team and I narrowly give the edge to the home team to find a way to break their visitors down and earn a huge three points.

It won't be the end for Fulham, but it will be a long way back and I will back Burnley to extend their historically strong home record against this opponent. Sean Dyche looks to have got the players performing as he would want and I think that leads to a win, although I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap that returns half the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: Any Burnley Defender- this is a boring selection in what could be a tight game, but Burnley have gone back to basics in recent games and keeping a clean sheet will be their main ambition from this fixture.


Cardiff City v Huddersfield Town Pick: This is the second of two fixtures being played between teams in the bottom five of the Premier League this weekend and arguably we could see the first team that is going to be consigned to life in the Championship next season.

While Burnley v Fulham brings in some real tension and the possibility to leave Fulham in a precarious spot, a Huddersfield Town defeat could leave them as many as 11 points off safety with just 16 League games left to play.

David Wagner is very aware of the situation and admitted that a defeat would likely end Huddersfield Town's two season stay in the Premier League. You simply can't lose against your rivals, but it hasn't been more than a couple of weeks since Huddersfield Town were beaten 1-0 at Fulham thanks to an injury time goal being conceded and they look completely devoid of goals or confidence.

The last couple of home games for Cardiff City have been eye-watering experiences for the fans, but generally they have been much better at home. Prior to heavy defeats to Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, Cardiff City had won 4 of 5 Premier League games here.

Those wins against Fulham, Brighton, Wolves and Southampton show Neil Warnock can get enough out of a limited squad in fixtures against their rivals. Two of those wins are against teams currently below Cardiff City in the Premier League table and a main reason The Bluebirds are not in the relegation zone and I think they might just have enough to earn the three points this weekend too.

Huddersfield Town are not going to lose every game between now and the end of the season and their 9 game losing run surely comes to an end soon. However it's hard to ignore how well Cardiff City have played at home against teams they are expected to beat and I think the club from Wales can find a bit of magic to earn a vital three points here.

Like with the Burnley pick, I can't really pick Cardiff City straight up considering how closely fought this fixture could be, but I will back them on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: Victor Camarasa- the Spaniard should be back from a knock and has proven to be an inspiration for Cardiff City.

Alternative: Sol Bamba- Huddersfield Town struggle for goals and Sol Bamba is a threat from set pieces for Cardiff City too.


Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: This looks to be quite a difficult game from which to pick a winner with a real case being able to be made for both Crystal Palace and Watford.

Over the last six weeks Crystal Palace have shown real improvement and picked up a number of key wins, but they can't always be trusted. The home form is not as strong and that makes them vulnerable here, but Crystal Palace have won 4 of 6 overall and 3 of their last 5 at Selhurst Park and that suggests things are being turned around.

On the other hand Watford have been very difficult to beat in the same time span and they would be a lot shorter if they had held onto leads from games at Everton and Bournemouth. The Hornets could easily be coming into this fixture off the back of 4 consecutive away wins and I was tempted in backing the visitors if not for their poor recent record at Selhurst Park which has seen them lose twice in a row here.

Watford have shown they can be very dangerous going forward though and have created plenty of chances in recent away games. However they have also been looking vulnerable defensively and I think even a goal-shy Crystal Palace team should enjoy some successes going forward.

4 of the last 7 between these clubs have ended with three or more goals shared out and I do think both are capable of scoring and continuing to play the football to see that number hit again. The odds against quote is just tempting enough to take that on here, especially with the way Watford have performed in recent away games, and I think that looks the best way to play a fixture that I really feel could go either way.

Fantasy Star: Wilfried Zaha- he is simply due a big game, will be playing high up the pitch and faces a Watford team who concede plenty of goals.

Alternative: Troy Deeney- Crystal Palace have been vulnerable defensively in some recent games and Watford have shown they are very good going forward.


Leicester City v Southampton Pick: Hands up if you can tell me which Leicester City team are going to turn up this weekend?

Is it going to be the team that won at Chelsea or the one to lose at Newport County in the FA Cup?

Or will it be the team that came from behind to beat Manchester City in the Premier League or the one that lost to Cardiff City here?

Leicester City have to be the most infuriating team in the Premier League to judge from game to game yet they are 7th in the Division and considered favourites to win this one. They should be favourites considering Southampton's struggles, but Ralph Hasenhuttl has found a formula to make The Saints tough to beat on their travels and that makes Leicester City unappealing at a short price.

Some fans will be dreading to go to this fixture knowing the last 3 between Leicester City and Southampton in the Midlands have all ended 0-0. The fixture prior to that run only featured the single goal in a Leicester City win and there is every chance we are going to see another tight game with the home team struggling to break down a team that will sit back and Southampton not blessed with a lot of goals.

After the defeat to Newport County I am expecting 'good' Leicester City to turn up for this fixture, but they are plenty short. Instead we may get a situation where one of these teams fail to score and I think the odds against quote of that happening is the best play for me here.

A single goal may be enough for all three points with Leicester City showing decent defensive organisation and Southampton looking sharper away from home than they have at St Mary's. Gun to the head I would think the home team get that, but I will simply look for one, or both, of these teams failing to score.

Fantasy Star: Ricardo Pereira- he is a defender in the Fantasy Premier League game, but he is playing much higher up the pitch recently and could be a threat for Leicester City in an anticipated tight game.

Alternative: Defender for Either Team- The last 3 games between these clubs at the King Power Stadium have all ended 0-0 so this could potentially be a clean sheet day for either or both teams.


Chelsea v Newcastle United Pick: The layers seem to think Chelsea are going to blow Newcastle United away at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, but I am not sure goals are going to be flying in during the second of the live Premier League offerings.

The fact that Newcastle United have lost 1 of their last 6 away Premier League games has to be respected and even the 4-0 defeat at Anfield saw the home team flattered by two goals in the final eleven minutes.

And this Chelsea team have hardly been firing in front of goal as Maurizio Sarri looks to bring in a Number 9 who can give his team a real focal point. Both Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud have not performed as well as Sarri or the fans would have liked and asking Chelsea to win by a three goal margin to cover the Asian Handicap and earn a full payout seems fanciful considering The Blues have not scored in half of their last 6 games in all competitions.

That includes in their last 2 Premier League games here against Leicester City and Southampton and Rafael Benitez will be encouraged to believe his team can earn a result here by defending properly. Ultimately Newcastle United don't have a very good record at Stamford Bridge and they don't have the kind of talent to really believe they can contain Chelsea throughout having lost their last 9 away games against the 'big six' clubs in the Premier League.

Newcastle United have caused problems for the teams they have visited, but Chelsea have found a way to keep clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. I think that could be the case here on Saturday too and I will back Chelsea to win this game with a clean sheet and maintain the gap to those clubs chasing the top four places.

Fantasy Star: Marcos Alonso- Chelsea have been very good defensively while struggling in front of goal. Marcos Alonso is always going to trying to create chances or score goals and has the bonus of a potential clean sheet here.

Alternative: Willian- Eden Hazard is the main Chelsea attacking threat, but Maurizio Sarri talked up Willian and the Brazilian has moments of magic which could open up a stubborn Newcastle United defence.


Everton v Bournemouth Pick: The first of the two live games to come from the Premier League is from Goodison Park as Everton host Bournemouth in an important game for both clubs.

Neither team has been in very good form in recent weeks, but at least Everton found a way to come through the FA Cup Third Round which may give them a tiny bit more momentum.

The Everton home form has been far below the level that would be expected, but Bournemouth have been really struggling away from home which has seen them lose 6 straight games on their travels in all competitions. The Cherries have conceded at least two goals in their last 5 away Premier League games which have all ended in losses, and they look like they have a few more injury concerns in the squad that has to be dealt with.

Confidence is going to be a problem for Everton considering the uneasiness the supporters have expressed in recent games at Goodison Park. If they don't make a positive start to this fixture you could see the fans begin to voice their discontent a little louder, but I think Everton will be able to edge out a team who are conceding too many goals.

Everton do have a very strong home record against Bournemouth and there is enough quality here to find the goals to win the game and I will back the home team to win a game that features two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Lucas Digne- Everton have been struggling, but Lucas Digne has been playing well and rumours suggest he will be pushed into a more advanced position for this fixture. Takes set pieces too so potential for assists, goals and maybe a clean sheet.

Alternative: Richarlison- Bournemouth have been conceding goals for fun in recent games and Richarlison is always a big attacking threat for Everton.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is almost like a job interview for Mauricio Pochettino and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as the two leading contenders to take over as permanent Manchester United manager in the summer.

I am sure that is the way the television companies will try and position the match, but both managers are keen to keep their players focused on what is the biggest game of the weekend.

Tottenham Hotspur are trying to keep tabs on both Liverpool and Manchester City as they are just 6 points off the Premier League lead, but a defeat here would put them under pressure as they would find 6th placed Manchester United just 7 points behind them as the race for the Champions League places would heat up.

As much as Solskjaer wants to be given the job at Old Trafford on a permanent basis, he won't be focused on anything but getting Manchester United finishing the season in as strong a way as possible. They have won 5 straight games under his watch and while they were expected to be won, the performances and style of the wins can't be ignored.

I think the ambition of the manager means he will expect Manchester United to try and get forward and put Tottenham Hotspur under pressure, especially if the home team have some energy levels sapped after a tough win over Chelsea in the League Cup Semi Final during the week.

In the second half of that game Tottenham Hotspur were looking a little leggy and Chelsea might be disappointed they didn't get something from that First Leg. Where Chelsea have looked a little short up front, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should have options that start and can come off the bench and I do fancy Manchester United getting a result here.

Recent visits to Tottenham Hotspur in the League have not been enjoyable with Manchester United losing 3 straight and not winning any of their last 6. However they did come from behind to beat Spurs in the FA Cup Semi Final at this ground in April and I would expect Manchester United to be the fresher team.

As long as Manchester United can get into half time level, I think the superior energy may be on their side in the second half and they can be backed in the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat.

Fantasy Star: Marcus Rashford- I fancy United in this one and Marcus Rashford looks like he could be leading the line ahead of Romelu Lukaku. So far the England International has responded to the new manager and he can continue a fine run.

Alternative: Heung-Min Son- the South Korean has been in fantastic form and will likely have chances against a vulnerable Manchester United defence. He will be looking to sign off in a big way before joining the National team for the Asian Cup.


Manchester City v Wolves Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend is expected to be a comfortable home win for Manchester City if the layers are to be believed, but I think they are being heavily influenced by the two Cup wins over lower League opposition.

All credit to Manchester City for scoring 16 goals in a couple of Cup games and that clearly isn't easy to do, but Wolves are significantly better than both Rotherham United and Burton Albion.

Ask any of the top clubs in the Premier League and they will say the same with Wolves already holding Manchester United and Arsenal to draws away from home while also beating Tottenham Hotspur. Manchester City won't need telling any different having had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Molineux earlier this season and there should be a healthy respect for the visitors.

Respect is one thing, but Manchester City should still find a way to ultimately earn the victory in this one although I am not sure we are going to see the amount of goals that have been produced at the Etihad Stadium in the last couple of games. Wolves will cause some problems as they have pace in the final third and will be confident enough to get forward and try to hit Manchester City on the counter.

That makes them dangerous and Manchester City's defensive performances have not been at the level the manager has desired so Wolves can score here. They have managed to do that at Old Trafford, the Emirates Stadium and Wembley Stadium, but Manchester City score plenty of goals at home and I think they will find a way to earn the three points.

Having a small interest on Manchester City winning a game in which both teams score looks the way to go here.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- there is some doubt about whether Sergio Aguero will be able to start. One attacker who should be itching to start is Raheem Sterling and I think he can be a key in trying to break down a tough Wolves team.

Alternative: Bernardo Silva- Manchester City may need a magic moment from someone to help them overcome Wolves and Bernardo Silva certainly fits that bill. Cheaper than other Manchester City midfield options too.

MY PICKS: West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton + 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City-Southampton Both Teams to Score- No @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Manchester United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.87 Bet Fred (1 Unit)