Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2019 (January 25th)

And just like that we are down to one Singles match per day at the Australian Open as the first Grand Slam of the season gets ready to close this weekend.

It has been a fabulous tournament and there are three potentially very good Singles matches left to go.

I won't lie, I am massively looking forward to the Women's Final between Petra Kvitova and Naomi Osaka which is going to crown a new World Number 1 as well as the first Grand Slam Champion of the 2019 season. Both players played tremendously in Semi Final wins and have looked very strong in Melbourne throughout this tournament and I think this could be one of the best Finals we have seen in a long time.

I will post my thoughts on that Final tomorrow, but on Friday we need to find out who is going to face Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open Final on Sunday. The Spaniard crushed the hopes of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Semi Final on Thursday to such an extent that the youngster was at a loss for words to describe what had happened to him.

This was a great tournament for Tsitsipas, but that loss was a reminder that the hard work is still in front of him if he is to achieve all he wants to. I do respect the fact that he didn't lose at one speed though and trying new tactics when present ones were not working is a strong attribute to have and one that will make Tsitsipas a great player for years to come.

For now the old guard remain fairly strong although Lucas Pouille will have something to say about that on Friday evening in Australia.


All three Tennis Picks returned as winners on Thursday which means this is going to be the positive start to the 2019 season I would have hoped for. Last year I had a miserable first three months of the season before turning things around so I am hopeful better is to come through the remainder of the 2019 year.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Lucas Pouille: The first reaction to seeing this spread was one of disappointment for me as I was hoping Lucas Pouille may be rated a touch higher than he is. It was a number I was still willing to back Novak Djokovic at, but I would have loved to have seen the same kind of overreaction to a tournament that Stefanos Tsitsipas got in his Semi Final against Rafael Nadal when he was in receipt of one less game on the handicap.

Never mind, we have to focus on what we have and I still think Lucas Pouille is going to have to play much higher than what he usually has produced if he is going to beat Novak Djokovic.

The Frenchman has been receiving plenty of praise for his support of Coach Amelie Mauresmo who has joined his team recently, but that doesn't count for a lot when going to the court. Some will suggest her impact has seen Pouille breakthrough at Grand Slam level, but he is a two time Quarter Finalist in the majors and I think the draw has been a good one for him.

Take nothing away from Pouille as he has beaten Borna Coric and Milos Raonic as the underdog and played very well in both matches. However this is another step up in terms of quality of opponent and Pouille has to show he can produce his best tennis against a top 5 Ranked opponent which has not been the case in his career so far.

Pouille is 1-5 in those matches on the hard courts and he has seen his serve attacked more than he is used to with only 70% holds in those matches. The return game has always needed work and the numbers are dented significantly in those matches too and I do wonder if the belief is there for a match like this one.

Winning matches adds to the confidence, but Novak Djokovic is a player who should be fresh having beaten Kei Nishikori in the Quarter Final after playing less than two sets. The World Number 1 is serving wonderfully at this tournament and even concerns about his back may have passed with the extra time to recover for this Semi Final, while the return is right up there with Rafael Nadal's and should put Pouille under intense pressure.

There is plenty of talent being brought to the court by Pouille, but he has struggled when facing Andy Murray and I do think Novak Djokovic is an upgrade on that type of player. Novak Djokovic should be able to force Pouille into some longer rallies and I do think he is going to return the serve better than anyone the Frenchman has faced in this tournament which should put his overall game under pressure.

It is a big number being asked of Novak Djokovic when you think of the serving numbers Pouille has produced, but the World Number 1 is winning 45% of return points through the tournament. He has broken in 43% of return games and even accounting for the slightly skewed nature of that by the Nishikori win, I do think Djokovic will challenge Pouille's tournament numbers considerably.

Those service numbers are some way higher than what he managed on the hard courts in 2017 and 2018 and I do think they will head back to a more consistent level over the course of the season. The Rod Laver Arena is a court Novak Djokovic has loved to play on and I think he will wear down Lucas Pouille in this one and begin to pull away once the first set and a half are in the books.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 58-43, + 22.39 Units (199 Units Staked, + 11.25% Yield)