There are always going to be twists and turns when making Tennis Picks through the two weeks of a Grand Slam, but Day 1 did not feel great especially not with the start made by those selections.
When Julia Goerges failed to serve out her match that she had dominated through the first two sets it did set the tone for some of the early selections made.
Things slightly improved during the course of the day, but I expect much better going forward even if the Australian Open early Rounds tend to be a little more erratic than the other Grand Slams thanks to the position of the tournament on the Tennis calendar.
The big headline from the Australian Open on Day 1 was the First Round match featuring Andy Murray after his announcement a few days ago that he might have to call time on his career in Melbourne. You would never have guessed he was not at 100% as he fought back from 0-2 down in sets against Roberto Bautista Agut before falling away in the fifth set decider.
While the Australian Open decided to play a montage featuring his peers congratulating Murray on his impending retirement, the player himself made it clear this might not be his last match in Melbourne after all. I think Murray is going to go home and have a think if he can get through to Wimbledon and then perhaps call time on his career then, or whether he should go in for major hip surgery which potentially will give him another crack at returning to the Tour.
I can imagine the competitive juices that helped Murray achieve so much in his career are flowing and I think he will try and come back. Either way he showed the kind of heart and determination that has been a feature of his career and I do hope Murray can find peace in working out how he wants his career to end.
The First Round continues on Tuesday and you can read some of my analysis below before the remainder of the Day 2 Picks are placed in the 'MY PICKS' section at the bottom of this post.
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Benoit Paire: In the last couple of years Dominic Thiem has cemented his spot in the top 10 of the World Rankings, but there continues to be a criticism with the way he schedules his season that prevents him from really unlocking his full potential. It is something that Thiem is very much aware of and in 2018 he was rewarded with his best season on the hard courts and with a clear improvement made all around.
Another Group exit in the ATP World Tour Finals will have disappointed Thiem who was also a very early loser in Doha to start to 2019 season, but none of that is a major concern.
Last year Thiem came into the Australian Open having been beaten in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals a couple of months early and that didn't stop the Austrian from reaching the Fourth Round. While Thiem has yet to make the Quarter Final in Melbourne, he has reached the Fourth Round in his last five Slams played on the hards courts in Australia and the United States and I think he can come through what looks a difficult First Round match on paper.
His opponent is Benoit Paire who can be very good on his day, although those days are often seen less frequently than his fans would like. The Frenchman has a pretty poor record in the Grand Slams overall, but the worst of his records comes here at the Australian Open and the numbers on the hard courts are generally not that effective.
Paire holds serve at around the 74% mark on the hard courts and that means he is usually under some pressure to find the returns to hurt opponents. Compare to that Dominic Thiem who improved his hold percentage to 86% on the hard courts in 2018, but had been at 81% in each of the previous two seasons which is still some way higher than his opponent.
With both holding very similar return numbers, I can see this match developing very much like the one between these two here at the Australian Open two years ago. On that day Thiem came through in four sets with one of those being a comfortable set for him and I can see something like that happening here with the Austrian much improved in the two years since these players last met and Paire pretty much on a similar level.
Nick Kyrgios-Milos Raonic over 43.5 games: If it wasn't for injury and the time it takes to rebuild the World Rankings, I would imagine this First Round match would be one more suited to the second week of a Grand Slam. Some may disagree, especially about Nick Kyrgios, but both the Australian and Milos Raonic have reached the latter stages of Slam events and they have the kind of games that can give anyone problems.
Much depends on what side of bed Kyrgios has gotten out of on Tuesday as he has the big serve and power to put Raonic under immense pressure.
However Raonic is a much steadier character all in all and that means you have more faith in knowing what you are going to get out of him from match to match. Both men are going to be heavily relying on their serves which generally see both Kyrgios and Raonic holding at the very high 80s in terms of percentage, although the doubts about the fitness of both make it a tougher match to really get a good read on.
You would worry for either player if they were to go 2-0 down in sets, but breaks of serve look few and far between unless one of them capitulates. Even in matches between the players, Kyrgios has held serve 86% of the time and Raonic has managed to do the same 91% of the time and I do see a situation where a couple of tie-breakers will be needed in this match too.
This is the fourth meeting at a Grand Slam and it is Raonic who leads 2-1, but the last of those was won by Kyrgios back in July 2015 at Wimbledon. My slight lean goes to Raonic getting the better of the home player in this one, but it does have all the makings of a very tight match in the night session on Tuesday.
Nick Kyrgios has never suffered a First Round exit in the main draw at the Australian Open though and I think he will be inspired in the atmosphere to really compete. He hasn't played a lot of tennis to open the season as a spider bite on his foot made it difficult, but I think we are going to see at least four sets played by these two players and the serving both Raonic and Kyrgios produce should give us every chance of seeing the total games surpassed.
Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Destanee Aiava: There won't have been too many times that Madison Keys would have been described as the 'veteran' in a match at her tender age, but the American has five years on her opponent in the First Round at the Australian Open.
A Wild Card has given Destanee Aiava the chance to play in the main draw of her home Grand Slam for the third year in a row, although the 18 year old is still searching for a first win in Melbourne. A decent start to the 2019 season in preparation for this tournament will have given Aiava some belief even if she found herself on the wrong end of a couple of tough scorelines in her losses.
Now she should feel a little more ready to compete than Madison Keys who is playing her first competitive match of the season. That may give Aiava a chance for a potential upset having pushed Simona Halep to 7-6 in the first set twelve months ago, although the raw numbers suggest there is still some way to go before the youngster is really making an impact on the main WTA Tour.
In general the serve is a decent weapon for Aiava, but she has not been able to get as much joy from the return as she would have liked. That may be underlined in this First Round match when Aiava faces Madison Keys whose power from the serve and forehand propels any success she has on the court.
Keys does enjoy the conditions in Melbourne and the heat should not really affect her. The American has reached the Fourth Round in her last three Australian Open tournaments and this is one of three Grand Slam events where Keys has made the Semi Final.
2018 was a very big year for Keys who reached two Slam Semi Finals as well as a Quarter Final and I think she is going to have too much firepower for Aiava. One criticism of Keys is she is perhaps not as dominant on the return of serve as you would want her to be considering the power she can rip through the ball, but I think Aiava will offer up enough chances in this one for Keys to find her rhythm and eventually break down her younger opponent's game.
In eight of her last eleven wins on the hard courts at Slams in Australia and the United States Keys would have covered this spread and I am going to back her to do that in the First Round here.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Tatjana Maria: The last time we saw Serena Williams in a Grand Slam match it was the infamous US Open Final where her tirade against the umpire overshadowed the fact that she was outplayed by Naomi Osaka.
That was the second Slam in a row where Serena had fallen just short of tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Singles Slams won, but she heads into the Australian Open as the favourite to win the title here. The last Grand Slam Serena Williams also came in Melbourne two years ago, but the competition may have stepped up and Williams has to show she is still the dominant women's player on the planet.
Don't expect Williams to be undercooked with the last true competitive match being played back in September as she did win her three Hopman Cup matches earlier this month. None of those were very strong wins, but Williams was barely tested in her run to the Wimbledon and US Open Finals in the last six months and players in the First and Second Round are still going to be in awe of the American.
First up is Tatjana Maria whose return of serve can be a weakness and going to make it very difficult to beat someone like Serena Williams who possesses arguably the best serve in the history of the sport. In the last year Maria has faced a couple of big name opponents in the hard court Grand Slam events and barely laid a glove on either Maria Sharapova or Elina Svitolina and I do think something similar will happen here.
I won't ignore the fact that the Williams numbers on the hard courts were not the best in 2018, but she did show signs of getting back to her best during the US hard court swing. I believe that will at least continue early in the Australian Open who has loved playing in Melbourne having reached the Final the last three times she has competed at this tournament and winning two of those.
As long as Serena Williams serves even close to her best, I think she will have Maria under pressure in this match from the off. That should allow Williams to tee off on a few returns once she sees the second serve and I think she can win and cover a big number in this First Round match.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: Injuries and motherhood have seen Victoria Azarenka slip down the World Rankings and really struggle to return to the once incredibly strong tennis she was able to produce on the Tour. The Belarusian was a credible threat to Serena Williams back in 2016, but she has not been able to find that level consistently since then and things have changed on the Tour.
For starters Azarenka is no longer the biggest threat to win a Grand Slam title coming from Belarus with Aryna Sabalenka stealing her thunder. The performances of the younger player have overshadowed Azarenka, but I do think that could work to the benefit of the former World Number 1 over the course of the 2019 season.
The First Round match against Laura Siegemund will be one featuring another player whose injuries have curtailed a career that had been peaking when they struck. The German reached a peak career World Ranking in August 2016, but the 39 wins she achieved that season have been replaced by a total of 36 wins in 2017 and 2018 combined.
Clay courts have been the favoured domain of Siegemund and her numbers on the hard courts are really not that inspiring so I do think Azarenka has every chance of getting her Australian Open off to a strong start. Even in Siegemund's best season on the Tour her hard court numbers were average at best and they have since declined in the last couple of years.
Siegemund's best run at the Australian Open also came in 2016, unsurprisingly, when she reached the Third Round. This is unlikely to be matched here and the bigger question for Azarenka is whether she can serve well enough to make it through the match without too many difficulties.
The second serve has been a real weakness for Azarenka over the last few months and she has to make sure she isn't giving Siegemund too much encouragement as the latter will defend and run all day long. I think the Azarenka quality on the ground can at least see her keep Siegemund under pressure on her own return though and I think that will be a key reason Azarenka is able to win and cover here.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios-Milos Raonic Over 43.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Hubert Hurkacz Over 46.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alja Tomljanovic @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-7, - 2.86 Units (26 Units Staked, - 11% Yield)
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