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Sunday, 27 January 2019

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2019- Men's Final (January 27th)

The Women's Final on Saturday was a really good watch and I have little doubt that the Men's Final to be played on Sunday is going to be the same when Novak Djokovic takes on Rafael Nadal.


Before I get onto that Final, I have to say all credit to Naomi Osaka for the way she was able to battle through the emotions of dropping the second set to win the title and back to back Grand Slam titles.

It is the first time since Wimbledon 2015 that a player on the WTA Tour has managed to win back to back Grand Slam titles when Serena Williams was able to do it, while Osaka became the first player since Jennifer Capriati in 2001 to win back to back Grand Slams for her first two major titles.

For me Naomi Osaka is the most deserving World Number 1 since Angelique Kerber hit that level in 2016 and I do think she is going to go into a number of tournaments amongst the favourites to win it. Ultimately the women's game still feels pretty open that no one should be a clear favourite, but Osaka's mental strength and pure talent will mean she should go close at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Petra Kvitova had a wonderful tournament too and she should be very proud of the tennis she put together. Even during her peak times Kvitova could be a little erratic with her play as she will always want to be attacking and finding the consistency to perform that kind of high risk tennis is never going to be easy.

If she can put some tournaments together to back up the Australian Open, I think Petra Kvitova may just go into Wimbledon as the player to beat while I would expect her to challenge the likes of Osaka at the US Open too.


We do have a couple of big hard court tournaments to come in the next two months, but the shift will soon be on to the clay courts and the build towards the French Open. The clay courts are still quite a specialised surface for players to produce their best so the likes of Kvitova and Osaka could be vulnerable on the clay where they have yet to play their best tennis.

It is something the layers don't always recognise immediately, but that is for another day and there are still hard court tournaments to come when I would expect the two Grand Slam Finalists to next be out on the court.


While we all were excited to see the new faces in the Men's Semi Finals a few days ago, in reality the Final that everyone would have wanted is waiting for us and I am looking forward to it.

I will have a short breakdown of the match below and how I feel this one will go in what has been a very strong start to the 2019 season for both players as they look to set a marker for the rest of the year.


Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic: The World Number 1 and the World Number 2 meeting in the first Grand Slam of the 2019 season suggests this could be another special year for both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal as long as they can remain healthy.

Last season they took home three of the four Grand Slam titles and I really don't think it would be a big surprise if these two didn't let anyone else get a look in during the 2019 season. Health will be a big test for both Djokovic and Nadal, but right now they are the clear one and two in the world and this should make for a very good Final.

Despite leading the way, Djokovic and Nadal only met twice in 2018 with the epic Semi Final win for the Serb at Wimbledon the big match that perhaps really gave him the belief that he can return to the very pinnacle of the men's game. He went on to win that title and the one at the US Open, but I would suggest that Rafael Nadal is playing at a higher level going into this Final.

Both players have produced some incredible serving numbers, while Novak Djokovic has the slight edge on the return, although those have been boosted by the last couple of Rounds. The Djokovic return is going to be a huge key to this match as Rafael Nadal faces him down with his new service motion which has generated a 97.5% hold record at the Australian Open and which has not been broken since the First Round.

It will be interesting to know what Nadal will do if the new serve is being put under pressure like Djokovic can do to the very best servers on the Tour. The Spaniard will have to stick to his game plan and make sure he doesn't lose heart, but the confidence is high and his hold percentage is a number of points higher than Djokovic's who has also been holding serve very well at over 90% for the tournament.

The Nadal return numbers are not quite as good as Djokovic's but they are far from poor and if there are lingering concerns about the back issue the World Number 1 had against Daniil Medvedev it could be a real problem for him.

You can't ignore the head to head on the hard courts which has seen Djokovic lead 18-7 against Nadal and he has won the last seven matches against him on this surface. In fact it is 14-0 in sets to Djokovic on the hard courts, although the last matches came in 2016 when the Serb was someway ahead of Nadal in levels of performance.

Things are much closer now and I do think Nadal may be playing the slightly better tennis over the last two weeks which could give him the edge. This is a court on which Novak Djokovic has had considerable success and the factors of the head to head on the hard courts and the returning numbers produced will see many stick with the World Number 1.

Prior to the tournament I thought Djokovic was the favourite to win his third Grand Slam in a row, but Rafael Nadal looks to be the one at a slightly higher peak going into the Final. Even factoring in those aspects that point towards Djokovic, I think Nadal is at a level that will be tough to top.

The last time Nadal beat Djokovic on the hard courts was in the US Open Final in 2013 and I think the Spaniard may just edge him out in another Grand Slam Final on this surface.

At critical times the Nadal serve may just hold up better than Djokovic's and I think he wins this Final.

This is one to enjoy though and so, while this is my selection, it will be a no unit pick as I sit with a morning cuppa and look forward to seeing the two best players in the world go at it hammer and tongs.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 2.15 Bet365 (0 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 59-44, + 21.99 Units (203 Units Staked, + 10.83% Yield)

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