I'm never a big fan of those tournaments the week prior to a Grand Slam, but that seems to be especially the case ahead of the two Slams that are played on the hard courts. At the start of the season it is also quite difficult to know what kind of form players are in and I do think the tournaments played will have given us a good idea as to where the titles at the first Slam of the season will potentially end up.
Conditions in those tournaments are different to what we see in Melbourne, but my Outright Picks and Preview can be read below.
Before we get to that I have to say a few words about Andy Murray who may very easily decide to end his career at the end of his Australian Open.
A few days ago Murray admitted his hip injury has made it impossible for him to play without pain and even everyday life has become that much tougher for him. This was never going to be a situation where Murray would want to make up the numbers by being on Tour and it is little surprise to me that he would rather call it a day for his career than becoming a Doubles player or fighting it out on the grind of the ATP Tour without ever being a genuine threat to win another Grand Slam title.
Andy Murray might not be able to end his career on his own terms, but he should not be disappointed in what has been a career that has exceeded most expectations.
In an era along with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer it is a credit to Murray that he has won three Grand Slam titles and ending the long wait for a British Wimbledon Champion was another huge achievement. In fact Murray won that twice and almost single-handedly helped Great Britain win the Davis Cup as well as adding two Singles Olympic Gold Medals to a very successful career.
Some will say Murray is 'Britain's Greatest Sportsman' and there will be an argument to be made for him, while he has become very popular even though he began his career as someone that many couldn't warm up to like they had for Tim Henman.
I will miss Andy Murray, but I don't think he will disappear.
After taking some time out, I can imagine the television cameras will want him to join their teams, while other players are surely going to want to bring him in as a potential Coach in the years ahead.
For now Murray should be very satisfied with how his career went and I would love for him to find a way to reach Wimbledon and end his career in the way he envisioned during his last training block.
That's the least Murray deserves, but no matter what I think he will know how thankful British fans and his fellow pros have been to witness his career.
And I will also say Thank You Andy if this is the way it is going to end.
Men's Draw
Twelve months ago Roger Federer defended the Australian Open title he won in 2017 and became a six time winner Down Under to join Roy Emerson and Novak Djokovic with that number of titles here.
It was another five set win for Federer in the final, but the veteran had a difficult last six months in the 2018 season which means he comes into this tournament as the Number 3 Seed. It is all relative to be honest as for most players Federer's season was good enough, but he is competing to win Grand Slam titles and failed to get beyond the Quarter Final at either Wimbledon or the US Open.
Roger Federer lands in the Third Quarter of the draw this week and his biggest rival is likely to be Marin Cilic who lost to Federer in the Final last year. There are also a couple of young talents in Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas who have both moved into the top 15 of the World Rankings after strong 2018 seasons.
Building on that is the next step for these players, but neither has reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam before and the Australian Open may not be the kind of conditions in which Khachanov or Tsitsipas will thrive in at this moment of their careers. Both players also have potentially awkward Third Round matches before they begin to face the big names in this Quarter of the draw and I would be surprised if one of the two Finalists from 2018 is not making the way through to the Semi Final.
Roger Federer and Marin Cilic do have a couple of obstacles to overcome but I think it is Federer who looks to have the better of the draws and he can return to the business end of a Grand Slam as he has in his last two visits here.
In fact I think Federer is the player most likely to reach the Final from the bottom half of the draw with the other big name in the section being Rafael Nadal.
However the Spaniard is still not looking like he is back at 100% from the injury that curtailed his 2018 season and the little tennis played ahead of the tournament has to be a concern. The draw is not the worst for Nadal, but Alex De Minaur could be a threat in the Third Round and the youngster may be looking to use the momentum of winning the title in Sydney to spark a big run in his home Grand Slam.
The man most likely to take advantage of any Nadal issues is Kevin Anderson as far as I am concerned with the South African playing some of the best tennis of his career in 2018. He reached the US Open Final in 2017 and also the Wimbledon Final in 2018 and Anderson has the kind of game that will put pressure on many opponents.
A fit Nadal would likely find a way to beat Anderson, but I like the way the draw could open up for him if the Spaniard was upset early. Even a potential Fourth Round match against John Isner or Grigor Dimitrov would not really put me off Anderson and I think he could be worth a small interest to win the Fourth Quarter.
While the bottom half has some quality players involved, I do think the top half is where the winner of this tournament will come from. The favourite and Number 1 Seed is Novak Djokovic and I am not too concerned with his defeat in Doha as that is a tournament in which he has not really thrived like he has in Australia.
Novak Djokovic won the last two Grand Slam titles and looked to be in great form being being beaten at the O2 Arena in the ATP World Tour Finals, but I think the conditions here suit him down to the ground. A former six time winner, Novak Djokovic has showed he can handle what can become very hot conditions in Australia and he is going to be the player to beat.
There are some quality players in his Quarter of the draw, but I think the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Kei Nishikori have issues to overcome to beat someone like Djokovic. The former was the Runner Up in Brisbane and still developing as a player, while Nishikori's record against Djokovic will be very hard to change in a best of five set scenario on a court the World Number 1 has loved.
The one player that most will be looking at to see if he can build on his successes of 2018 has to be Alexander Zverev and he is a potential Semi Final opponent for Novak Djokovic. The German won the ATP World Tour Finals to conclude the 2018 season, but failing to reach a Semi Final of any Grand Slam is a knock on Zverev and needs to be rectified in 2019.
He may not be fully fit at the moment, which is my one concern surrounding Zverev, but the draw potentially will open up for him. While there are some big names in this Quarter, Zverev won't really run into those until the Fourth Round and beyond by which time he could be the fresher player and able to take advantage for his best run in a Slam.
Before I am willing to back Zverev I do think he has to show he can handle the conditions in Australia and find his best tennis in a best of five set situation. The tournaments coming up later in 2019 may be more up Zverev's street and I can't even recommend him to reach a first Grand Slam Semi Final because of the potential matches the youngster is expected to face in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final.
Picking someone to oppose him in the section is not easy either because there are some tough matches to predict from the off and this might be the Quarter of the draw that produces the surprise player who makes a run at the Slams.
The break up of the Outright Picks are fairly boring to be perfectly honest, but it's about picking winners.
I am going to take both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the outright winner market with the latter each-way which will produce a profit as long as he reaches the Final.
I will also back Kevin Anderson to win the Fourth Quarter as I look for the best way to oppose Rafael Nadal.
Women's Draw
Ever since Serena Williams left the sport to give birth the Grand Slam events have been wide open on the women's side of things and this year's Australian Open looks to be no different.
The American is the favourite to win the tournament, but Serena Williams is a big price to do that and the American is one of just two women priced up at single digits to win the tournament.
Williams is in a loaded First Quarter of the draw with some of the top names in women's tennis and where some of the recent Grand Slam Champions reside. Simona Halep is the Number 1 Seed, Garbine Muguruza is a player who potentially can get very hot and run through a draw, Daria Kasatkina is consider the future, Karolina Pliskova has a big game that should be suited to the hard courts and only one of these players is going to make it through to the Semi Final.
I would have to draw a line through Halep, Muguruza and Kasatkina for different reasons, but Karolina Pliskova did win the title in Brisbane and has to have some confidence in having a big tournament. It would be a surprise if Pliskova is not able to get through to the Fourth Round without too many problems, but she can be hard to trust with her history in the Grand Slam tournaments and the 2018 numbers on the hard courts were not as impressive as I would like to see from a potential Slam winner.
In my opinion Serena Williams is going to be the player to beat having reached back to back Grand Slam Finals in 2018 and she should be well rested to find a way through the draw as she does. The last Grand Slam Serena won was here in Melbourne and I think she is every chance she does that again over the next two weeks.
There are more than a couple of players in the Second Quarter of the draw who will feel they can stop Serena Williams if they face her in the Semi Final. However the two leading names have to be the two highest Seeded players in the Quarter and that is Naomi Osaka and Elina Svitolina.
Naomi Osaka famously beat Serena Williams to win the US Open back in September, while Elina Svitolina won the WTA Finals in Singapore which is the biggest title of their careers respectively. Qiang Wang was in fine form over the last three months of the season and should be very happy in the conditions too and may be the player to beat out the top Seeds in this Quarter.
I think Wang could be the value at the prices to win the Second Quarter, but this is another portion of the draw which looks wide open and with serious contenders all over.
The bottom half of the draw is no different and again you can see a number of players that could have a huge two weeks without really being convinced by one over the others.
One of my favourite players coming into 2019 is Aryna Sabalenka who I've already stated as having the potential to become the best player to have come out of Belarus ahead of Victoria Azarenka. I was hoping Sabalenka would be flying under the radar a little bit, but the hype around her has made her third favourite to win the title here and I think that makes her a short price.
The draw hasn't helped with a potential Second Round match against Ekaterina Makarova and Fourth Round match against Petra Kvitova coming up and I will take a watching brief from the women's draw.
So many players have question marks around them throughout the draw that it does feel better to get involved on a match by match basis rather than in the outright markets.
Players like Angelique Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki won Grand Slam titles last season, but the former is with a new Coach now and didn't play well following her success at Wimbledon. The latter has injury concerns which may prevent Wozniacki from defending her title as effectively as she would like.
Ashleigh Barty will have home support and she did reach the Final in Sydney last week which will only increase the expectation around her. However that pressure has seen players crack previously and Barty is still someone who struggles against the very best players on the Tour and the women's draw looks wide open here.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (3 Units)
Roger Federer Win @ 6.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)
Kevin Anderson to Win Fourth Quarter @ 5.50 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
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