Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2019 (January 24th)

The Semi Final line up was completed on Day 10 at the Australian Open and it really feels like the women's draw is where the real interest lies ahead of the two Finals to come this weekend.

In the men's draw we have two veterans who have achieved great things in the sport taking on two opponents playing in their first Grand Slam Semi Final and I think most will already be looking forward to the potential Novak Djokovic versus Rafael Nadal match as the final one to go on in Melbourne in 2019.

While there is obviously some interest in the men's Semi Final matches, the women's matches look fantastic and I can only imagine three really good contests remain in that draw.

Karolina Pliskova stunned Serena Williams in the Quarter Final to make another Grand Slam Semi Final, but she is yet to win a major and there are a couple of players left who have held their nerve to pick up big titles. Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova are both favoured to win their Semi Final matches, but they should at least be challenged by Pliskova and Danielle Collins who is having the best two weeks of her career at this event.

Collins is not going to back down from Kvitova having pushed in a tight three setter in Brisbane to open the season, and I do think we are going to have a brilliant day of tennis on Day 11 which is the final one of the tournament with multiple Singles matches scheduled.

The third match going on court on Day 11 is the first of the men's Semi Final matches as Rafael Nadal takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas under the lights on Rod Laver Arena.


The positive results from the tournament kept ticking along the 2019 totals for the Tennis Picks and I am hoping for more of the same on Thursday.

You can read my selections from the three matches scheduled for Thursday below.


Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: In the last couple of Rounds Danielle Collins has been very good to me as she has managed to beat opponents as the underdog to work her way through the draw. Only once in her five matches at the Australian Open has the confident American player been favoured to win so the situation in this Semi Final is not going to worry her one iota.

What will be a bigger worry is the form of Petra Kvitova who has looked very strong throughout the Australian Open following up her win in Sydney a couple of days before this event began. Fatigue hasn't been an issue at all with Kvitova being able to dismiss opponents relatively comfortably and she should be well rested after dismissing Ashleigh Barty in straight sets on Tuesday.

It was yet another strong win for Kvitova who has yet to drop a set and has not lost more than five games in any of the five matches played. Her intensity on the serve has made it very difficult for opponents to fashion too many break point chances and Kvitova has not been broken in any of her last three matches which is going to put pressure on opponents.

Petra Kvitova will need to find her best serving to contain Danielle Collins who is confident enough to step into the baseline and try and dictate rallies. It was that strength of conviction that allowed her to come from behind and beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the Quarter Final and the manner Collins was able to crush Angelique Kerber was mightily impressive.

The problem for Collins is that players who have been willing to take the game to her have had some success with Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges both winning the first set and getting very close to beating the American in the second. The first serve has been strong for Collins so she will feel she can earn some cheap points, but her return is going to be tested by the incredible serving Kvitova has put together in this tournament too.

An edge on the return has to be given to Kvitova too who is well known for her first strike tennis and I can see the Collins second serve being a shot she attacks from the off. That could put Collins into a tough position of having to defend a lot of balls and it is not her game nor does it look like Kvitova is going to head into a direction of making unforced errors galore.

That has been an issue for Kvitova in the past, but she looks confident and strong and I think she is going to have Collins under a lot more pressure than the other way around. The tight match in Brisbane will give Collins some belief she can upset the two time Wimbledon Champion, but I think Petra Kvitova is on a tough roll to stop and I will back her to win and cover in this Semi Final.


Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: You do have to wonder how Karolina Pliskova is going to recover emotionally from not only beating Serena Williams in the Quarter Final, but the manner in which she saved match points and came from 5-1 down in the final set decider to win the match 7-5.

Usually Pliskova is a pretty stoic character, but you could see how much the win meant to her as she continues her unbeaten start to 2019. Now she has to avoid the pitfalls of the last seven women who have beaten Serena Williams before the Final of a Grand Slam tournament.

Only two of those seven women have gone to win their match in the next Round, but that means five of them have been beaten including Karolina Pliskova who lost in the US Open Final in 2016 after beating Serena Williams in the Semi Final. Emotionally it is the biggest achievement in women's tennis despite the American not being in the top 10 of the World Rankings and many players have struggled to back up a win of such importance particularly with so much usually on the line at the Grand Slam level.

Managing her emotions is going to be the key for Pliskova, but even if she can do that she does have a big test in front of her when facing Naomi Osaka who is looking to reach back to back Grand Slam Finals.

I did a quick search through the records and I believe Naomi Osaka would become the first female player to win her maiden Grand Slam title and reach the Final of the next Grand Slam since Jennifer Capriati back in 2001. In the last few years we have seen a number of first time winners struggle to cope with the new pressures on them, but the young Japanese star seems to take everything in her stride and is making her way towards World Number 1 status.

Naomi Osaka destroyed Elina Svitolina in her Quarter Final and she has been playing very well here and I do think she will be the steadier player between the ears in this one. I do like how Karolina Pliskova can compose herself on the court and she has also been producing at a high rate, but it is hard to ignore how big a win it was for her over Serena Williams and knowing how difficult players have found backing up that success over the 23 time Grand Slam Champion.

Both players beat the other on the hard courts in 2018, but they were two tight matches. Even though Pliskova was able to beat Osaka without facing a break point in their last match in Tokyo, I do think the latter has the slightly superior return game while their serves are just as strong as each other.

In a match like this the slight emotional fatigue and the slightly better return game may give Naomi Osaka the edge and the chance to play for another Grand Slam title.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: With a large Greek community in Melbourne and Australia it is no surprise that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been backed by a loud following in his breakthrough Grand Slam tournament. As I have said before, Tsitsipas has the 'x' factor which can separate those from being a very good player to one who can win multiple Grand Slam titles, but to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final he is going to have to beat arguably the best performing player in the Australian Open.

It shouldn't be a test that overawes Tsitsipas who has already beaten Roger Federer here and backed that up with an important four set win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the Quarter Final. The win was a good one, but the young player will know he can't afford to drop serve first in the opening three sets of this Semi Final because this time he is facing a relentless opponent who won't crack under pressure.

Rafael Nadal has been dominating through the first five matches here and his change on the service motion has paid immediate dividends for him. His win over Francis Tiafoe in the Quarter Final saw Rafael Nadal play his fourth match in a row at the Australian Open without being broken while the Spaniard is continuing to produce exceptional returning numbers.

Those will be tested by Tsitsipas whose return has been a key weapon his run to the Semi Final. During the Australian Open Tsitsipas has held over 93% of his service games and is winning 72% of points behind that shot and he is going to need to produce something very similar to give him a chance of upsetting the odds in this match.

A big part of those numbers is the 12/12 break points saved in the Fourth Round win over Roger Federer, but I am not convinced Rafael Nadal will be as generous at those key moments. The World Number 2 has not been as clinical as he perhaps would have liked to be, but he has been very strong and I think Tsitsipas will need to have learned something from his defeat to Nadal in the Canadian Masters Final back in August.

In that match Nadal was able to put the Tsitsipas serve under pressure, but his own serve was barely threatened. So far in this tournament the return of serve has still been a relative weakness for the youngster and he is only breaking serve in 14% of his return games which doesn't really bode well against Nadal in the serving form of his life.

Ultimately I do think the difference in the return of serve is going to be a key difference between the players and that will decide the outcome of the match. I think there will be times when Tsitsipas plays some big time tennis to push Nadal around the court, but the return of serve from the Spaniard will keep the pressure on and I don't think he misses the huge chances Federer did when losing to the Greek player earlier in the tournament.

Rafael Nadal looks pretty clinical at the big point situations and he has his eye well and truly in on the return. The two matches between these players in 2018 both were won relatively comfortably by Nadal and I think he has too much experience and too much strong tennis for Tsitsipas at this stage of their respective careers.

I will be looking for the Spaniard to break serve enough times to cover this number even if he is finally broken himself for the first time since the First Round.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 55-43, + 17.13 Units (193 Units Staked, + 8.88% Yield)