Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2019 (January 18th)

The first two Rounds at the Australian Open are in the books and on Day 4 we had the rare sight of seeing a rain delay at the tournament.

However it wasn't a very long delay and having a number of roofs around meant very little disruption on a day when most of the big names didn't only get through, but, as predicted, got through with the smallest of fusses.

It meant a very strong day for the Tennis Picks on what is going to be the busiest day of the tournament for the daily picks being made. Finishing up with a winning record puts this tournament completely on track with where I wanted it to be at this stage, but plenty of tennis is to come and I am looking to keep focused and make sure January is a very productive one as we begin the 2019 season looking to follow on from a strong 2018.


On Day 5 we have the first half of the Third Round matches in both the men's and women's draws scheduled to be played. Fewer courts are now needed for the Singles matches and that also means the Doubles have got going.

There are not going to be as many Picks as there were on Day 4, but I do like the look of some of the matches out there and below you will be able to read analysis of some of those with the other selections entered into the 'MY PICKS' selection as they have been all week.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Winning matches in straight sets early in the Grand Slam tournaments is always the most preferable way of working your way through the draw, but two improving players meet in the Third Round having had to work a little harder than that to reach this stage of the tournament.

The local Greek community have always been loud and proud at the Australian Open and this time they have two players, one in each of the women's and men's draws to support. The atmosphere generated by the fans is pretty special although my conspiracy radar suggests the home organisers may have been a little worried about one of their own having to deal with a raucous atmosphere by scheduling this match at the same time as Maria Sakkari takes on Ashleigh Barty on Rod Laver.

Split fans will still create a booming atmosphere for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has needed four sets in both of his wins at the Australian Open. He is looking to match his career best performance at a Grand Slam by making it through to the Fourth Round like he did at Wimbledon in July 2018, but this looks to be a very tough match on paper.

Nikoloz Basilashvili is a vastly improved player and he looks to be pretty tough mentally which always will give him a chance in matches. He reached the Third Round here in Australia last season and surpassed that with a Fourth Round run at the US Open in September so clearly feels very comfortable on the hard courts.

Both players have unspectacular numbers on the hard courts, but they do find a way to win matches that they perhaps should not be winning. So far this week Basilashvili has needed four sets in the First Round and five sets in the Second Round to earn his way through, but his numbers have been average and it may not have taken a lot for things to swing against him.

His serve is something of a weakness on the hard courts, but Tsitsipas has not really produced great numbers on his return which is where this match could be won or lost. Over the last six months the Georgian has been slightly improved on the serve, but he has gone back to his usual levels in his opening matches in 2019 and I do think fatigue potentially plays a part against him in this Third Round match too.

Basilashvili's return of serve has been vital to his success, but the Tsitsipas serve is a big weapon for the young Greek player. There are signs Tsitsipas could even be improving behind serve and I think in this one it will be the difference between the two players over four sets.

I have to respect the underdog in this one for the toughness he has shown in hard court matches in the Grand Slams throughout his career. He has very rarely been blown away, but I think the pressure exerted on him by the Tsitsipas serve will see Basilashvili just cough up one or two breaks of serve more than his opponent will.

In a tight match that may be enough for Tsitsipas to cover the number here even if he is someone I think could be ripe to be opposed on the current serve-return numbers he is generating. Unfortunately for Basilashvili he has had two very tough matches in the heat of Melbourne and I think that may lead to him perhaps falling away towards the conclusion of this match and give Tsitsipas the chance to put a gloss on the scoreline.


Karen Khachanov - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Anyone who has followed my Tennis Picks for any length of time will know how high I am on Karen Khachanov. The young Russian reminds me very much of his compatriot Marin Safin and the big game the latter has looks to be thriving from Khachanov's racquet.

He is one of a number of young players looking to make the next step in their careers in 2019 along with Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, but I think Khachanov may be leading the way. He is currently the best Ranked of those three players mentioned and Khachanov has comfortably made it through to the Third Round and surpassed his previous best effort here while the young man looks set to break into the top 10 for the first time at the end of the Australian Open.

Winning at least one more Round and possibly two could put Khachanov over the edge, but he is playing the Doha Champion Roberto Bautista Agut in this Third Round match.

The Spaniard has made a very good start to 2019 and he has some strong hard court numbers in recent years which makes him anything but a pushover on this surfaced. However Bautista Agut has needed five tough sets to come through both of his matches at the Australian Open and each time he has been on something of a rollercoaster of emotions with a 2-0 lead in sets blown in each of the first couple of matches here.

All credit has to be given to Bautista Agut for somehow rallying when all the momentum looked to be against him versus both Andy Murray and John Millman, but it has to have taken something from the tank. I won't rule a line completely through him though as the Spaniard needed to win back to back five set matches in the first two Rounds in Melbourne three years ago and still managed to win his Third Round match comfortably.

Back in 2016 Bautista Agut blew a 2-0 set lead in the First Round before rallying in the decider and came back from 1-2 down in the Second Round to win that one before ousting Marin Cilic. That suggests he should be able to cope with the way the first couple of Rounds have gone here, but Khachanov has been producing some numbers on the hard courts which suggest he is a real threat to win the title here.

The serve is a big weapon for Khachanov and he holds close to 90% of the time on the hard courts in 2018 and beginning 2019, but the return is the key for him and he has certainly been strong there too. Over the last six months you can see the improvements even more though as he has moved his break percentage to 25% and I think Khachanov will have Bautista Agut under pressure.

Roberto Bautista Agut has been over-performing significantly on the hold of serve percentage in 2019 compared to his usual levels. That is unsustainable to be truthful and I think a combination of playing an under-rated opponent as well as the fatigue built up over the first two Rounds will see Khachanov square their head to head record and win this match and cover the mark.


Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: Get the disclaimer out of the way first- I know I've said Grigor Dimitrov is over-rated these days and easily opposable in some matches, but the spot is the key for my selection as I back the Bulgarian for the second time in three matches this week.

While Grigor Dimitrov was relatively serenely progressing through to the Third Round, his opponent Thomas Fabbiano has had to dig deep and play five sets in the Second Round win over Reilly Opelka. One five setter doesn't sap you of your energy, but I do think the Italian is playing at a level that is not going to be sustained by him and that means he could be ripe for a real letdown performance.

He has had previous in the Grand Slams- go back to the US Open in 2017 and Fabbiano was able to win his First Round match in four sets, his Second Round match in five sets and then laid a dud in his straight sets defeat to Paolo Lorenzi in the Third Round.

Backing up emotionally big wins might be a problem for Fabbiano too who has to be respected as someone who has challenged some big names at the Grand Slams before. He lost a tight three setter to Alexander Zverev in Melbourne twelve months ago and Fabbiano was able to beat Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon, but on that occasion he had nothing left to give in the next match against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

These trends worry me about Fabbiano's chances against Dimitrov who has produced some good tennis to open 2019. This comes after a really poor 2018 when he was struggling when it came to the return of serve, but so far he has been able to get into those games with much more confidence and his break percentage is at a healthy spot so far, albeit with a very small sample size to make sweeping statements.

The Fabbiano return game is going to be the key to his chances of the upset, but his serve is one that can be vulnerable on the hard courts when playing at this kind of level. His record against the very best players, those inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, shows Fabbiano comes up short in these matches and his 60% hold and 15% break percentages just won't cut it in those matches.

Dimitrov is just outside the top 20 of the World Rankings these days, but I think he might be more level emotionally than his opponent and that may result in the scoreline looking pretty one-sided in this Third Round match.


Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Alex de Minaur: There is no doubt that Rafael Nadal will always been a fan favourite wherever he goes, but for the third time at the Australian Open he will likely see that support at least edge towards his opponent as he plays yet another home player in the draw. Wins over James Duckworth and Matthew Ebden won't have dampened the love the fans have for Nadal, but even they must be hoping the Spaniard doesn't continue to run over their Australian hopes.

Next up is Alex de Minaur who is the current Australian Number 1 player and also the winner of the title in Sydney in the days leading up to the Australian Open beginning. I am not always a fan of players playing in the week before a Slam and those that go deep into those events have to be feeling a little more of the opening matches they have to play in the Grand Slam.

It may have contributed to the tough Second Round match Alex de Minaur had to get through as he blew a 2-0 lead in sets before rallying in the decider against Henri Laaksonen. There are clearly signs of improvement being made by de Minaur on the hard courts, but this is close to the ultimate test in tennis and any fatigue he may be feeling is going to be highlighted in this match despite having almost 48 full hours to recover before taking to the court.

Rafael Nadal did have some fitness questions prior to the tournament, but he has looked very comfortable in the first couple of Rounds here. He may only have won the Australian Open once in his career, but Nadal is a very solid hard court player who has reached the Quarter Final on ten occasions and made the Final four times.

The change in the service motion has paid dividends so far in this tournament, but I think Nadal is going to be tested by the quality of the de Minaur return. However it is the way he has been returning that could prove to be the difference maker with Nadal putting his opponents under pressure and if his young opponent is feeling any lingering tiredness this is the one player you don't really want to be competing against.

It has to be noted that de Minaur has never beaten a top 10 Ranked opponent on the hard courts in his career. He is 0-7 in that spot, but de Minaur did push both Alexander Zverev and Marin Cilic to five sets in the Davis Cup and US Open respectively which has to be acknowledged.

However the other five defeats have come in relatively straight-forward fashion. The de Minaur numbers indicate he really struggles to get enough out of his serve in those matches against the very best out there and Nadal should be able to take advantage of that in this match.

In those seven hard court matches against the top ten, de Minaur holds serve at less than 70% of the time and wins under 59% of the points behind serve. That puts intense pressure on his return game which has seen de Minaur break serve at 13% and win just over 31% of the return points.

It isn't really good enough and I haven't seen enough to suggest that gap would have closed significantly in the off-season. Rafael Nadal beat Alex de Minaur for the loss of just seven games at Wimbledon in July 2018 and I think he will have another fairly comfortable win this Third Round match under the lights on the Rod Laver Arena.


Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: A couple of lapses of concentration and perhaps not playing the big points as well as he would have liked made the Second Round win over Mackenzie McDonald a little more awkward for Marin Cilic. He still managed to get through in four sets and a good start to the Australian Open has seen Cilic reach the Third Round with just that one set dropped.

Now he faces someone who will be much more familiar to Cilic when taking on veteran Fernando Verdasco who has produced some solid tennis over the last couple of years even if the consistency is not where it once was. The Spaniard had his best Grand Slam performance at the Australian Open back in 2009 but this is just the second time in six attempts he has reached the Third Round and at 35 years old the best days are behind Verdasco.

So far he hasn't been troubled in the draw, but Verdasco has to be grateful for what looked like a couple of very winnable matches to open the tournament. Now he has to take a big step up when facing a player Ranked as highly as Marin Cilic and over the last couple of years we have seen Verdasco's numbers take a serious dent when he has been playing the better players on the Tour.

While his overall hard court numbers in 2017 and 2018 are decent and Verdasco has made a good start to 2019, when he has played top 20 Ranked opponents there is a significant drop in both serve and return stats. It is no surprise considering Verdasco is past his best, but I also think it leaves him vulnerable to failing to cover this number of games in this Third Round match.

Marin Cilic has been a steady force on the hard courts and his serve and return games look to be in rude health so far in this match. Yes he had some tough moments in the Second Round against McDonald, but Verdasco's return game is not what it once was and that was demonstrated in the two wins Cilic had over him in 2018.

Those were not played on the hard courts, but the point is still there.

Last year Cilic held 91% of the time against Verdasco and broke him just under 27% of the time and I think he is going to be the dominant player in this one too. The veteran Spaniard is just 1-11 in his last twelve matches against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts in the Grand Slams and seven of his last eight losses to those players within those parameters have seen him fail to get within the number handicapped for this match.

I am expecting Cilic to have the majority of the break point chances and I think the Verdasco serve will falter a couple more times than the Croatian's serve does which will lead to the Runner Up of 2018 moving into the second week with a good, solid win.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There have been a number of really young ladies playing in the women's draw with remarkable successes and Amanda Anisimova is yet another having surprisingly reached the Third Round for the first time at just 17 years old. Like with a few of her contemporaries, Anisimova has shown signs of becoming a top player already and she dominated Seeded Lesia Tsurenko in the First Round.

At the moment the biggest test in women's tennis may be facing Aryna Sabalenka who has shot up the World Rankings and come to the fore over the last six months. The Belarusian is only 20 years old so not a lot older than her opponent in this match, but Sabalenka has been in great form which has seen her reach just outside the top 10 of the World Rankings.

It says something that Sabalenka was beaten in the First Round twelve months ago but came into the Australian Open as the third favourite to win the title. Nothing she has done will changed that perception as she has powered past opponents for weeks now and Sabalenka reached the Fourth Round at the US Open which should mean she is comfortable with the situation around her.

The Anisimova numbers suggest she can offer a challenge to Sabalenka especially coming from the United States where hard court tennis is king. She won't be intimidated by the match, but I have to note that the youngster has yet to really find any consistency when playing opponents inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and that is mainly because the first serve and return are perhaps not as effective as the American would like them to be.

Someone like Sabalenka is going to look to get on top of the rallies very quickly so Anisimova will need to find a way to produce big serves to keep her at bay. It is asking a lot against a player who has been playing top level hard court tennis since just prior to the US Open and who was only narrowly beaten by eventual US Open Champion Naomi Osaka in that tournament.

While I do think Sabalenka has some room for improvement on the return of serve, her own serve is a ridiculous weapon and perhaps one that the women's game has not seen outside of Serena Williams. Both the first serve and second serve are strong shots for Sabalenka and I think that is going to put her opponent under pressure in this match which will result in perhaps pushing too hard and making errors.

This may be a match that decides Grand Slam titles in the coming years, but right now Sabalenka looks to be some way further down the line than Anisimova and I think that results in a good looking win for one of the favourites to win the Australian Open.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari + 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 33-22, + 17.13 Units (108 Units Staked, + 15.86% Yield)