Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2019 (January 20th)

It's been a busy day so the Day 7 selections from the Australian Open can be seen below.


Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: Two players who had had to dig deep in the Australian Open meet in the Fourth Round and it is not the first time that Marin Cilic and Roberto Bautista Agut have met at this Grand Slam. In fact the only win Bautista Agut has over Cilic came at the Australian Open in the Third Round three years ago and it was a stunning result with the Spaniard coming through in straight sets.

He was a dominant winner over the talented youngster Karen Khachanov in the Third Round and Bautista Agut will have appreciated a straight sets win after needing five sets to win each of the first two matches in the draw. Any fatigue was not evident and Bautista Agut is playing with extreme confidence that comes from winning the title in Doha and then backing it up with some tough wins here.

This time the question about tiredness will be aimed at Marin Cilic who had to come from 0-2 down to beat Fernando Verdasco in five sets in the Third Round. It wasn't an extremely late finish like the one Johanna Konta and Garbine Muguruza had to go through, but Cilic needs to show strong recovery in the day between the Third Round and Fourth Round.

It does have the making of a close match with both players showing strong form on the hard courts in the last couple of years. However that is where the 4-1 head to head lead for Marin Cilic may just give him a mental edge in the match and his slightly superior serving could be the difference maker.

In previous matches Cilic has a record of holding serve at almost 90% of the time, while Roberto Bautista Agut's percentage is at 81% and it could be the tiny difference on the day. In a match where the small percentages could make the big differences I do think the Cilic superior serve can just put him in a position where he can win the match even if it goes very deep.

I did have a look at Cilic's history in Grand Slams played on the hard courts to see if there was any worrying trend after he has won a match in five sets. However nothing has stood out with a 7-5 record in his next match following a five set win, but at least the winning record does not put me off backing him to get a measure of revenge on Bautista Agut for the loss at the Australian Open in 2016.

The Spaniard won't go quietly, but Cilic has found a comfort level playing him and I think he can dig deep enough to win this one.


Grigor Dimitrov Win 3-1 v Francis Tiafoe: After a poor 2018 Grigor Dimitrov made some changes to his support team towards the end of the campaign knowing he would hopefully be receiving some of the benefits going into the 2019 season.

One of those changes was the arrival of Andre Agassi who had previously worked with Novak Djokovic and so far Dimitrov does look happier around the court. It is only a small sample, but the Bulgarian has played well in the two tournaments he has entered in 2019 although he has yet to be really tested outside of the loss to Kei Nishikori in Brisbane.

I expect this Fourth Round match to be a much more difficult match than any Dimitrov has faced so far here in Melbourne and Francis Tiafoe is coming in with plenty of confidence of his own. It is also the 20th birthday for the young American so you have to think that brings an additional motivation for him although the numbers have yet to find the consistency Tiafoe would like on the hard courts.

He has enjoyed a good week with a big win over Kevin Anderson and coming back from 1-2 down to beat Andreas Seppi, but Tiafoe has to recover physically from that match. At 20 years old it will be easy for the American to not be able to produce his best tennis, but I expect the energy of youth to help Tiafoe give Dimitrov some problems.

When they met at the Canadian Masters in 2018 it was a very close match played between Dimitrov and Tiafoe which was won by the Bulgarian in three tight sets. The numbers on the hard courts are actually pretty similar in 2018 and while Dimitrov has been in good form this week, Tiafoe has also produced some very good tennis.

I do have to give Dimitrov the slight edge in the match, but I am not sure he is going to be able to win this in straight sets. I would expect Francis Tiafoe to at least win one set although he may lose a couple of tight sets that puts him under the cosh and sees the Bulgarian push on and win this match to take his place in the Australian Open Quarter Final.

Having a small interest on Dimitrov winning this in four sets is the call.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins + 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 42-33, + 12.47 Units (148 Units Staked, + 8.43% Yield)