Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2019 (January 14th)

The Australian Open Grand Slam begins in just the third week of the new Tennis season and I do understand those out there who would prefer to see this tournament pushed back a couple of weeks.

Personally I don't mind the spot as it gets every new season off with a bang and there are a number of contenders who will be looking to begin 2019 with the first Grand Slam safely locked away. I have written a few words about Andy Murray as well as both the Men's and Women's Tournaments in Melbourne which can be read here.

Monday could be the last time we see Murray on a tennis court as he is set to play his First Round match against Doha Champion Roberto Bautista Agut, but I would not be stunned to see the British player will his way to a couple of wins in this draw. I hope that it will be possible for him to do that, but all eyes in the United Kingdom will turn to that match that is set to go at 7am Monday morning in our time zone.


I've only had two picks through the first two weeks of the 2019 Tennis season but I have been very much looking forward to the start of the Australian Open. Last season I started pretty badly with a poor first three months of the season so I am looking for much better at the Australian Open this time and a chance to build on what was ultimately a winning season for the Tennis Picks in 2018.

Day 1 sees the bottom half of both the men's and women's draws get underway so there are a lot of First Round matches to come over several hours.

I should have Day 2 Picks ready to go earlier than this thread for Day 1 and will update the threads whenever the Picks from a single day are completed.

Like last season, I will break down some of the matches and add the remaining Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.

Happy Slam Day.


Grigor Dimitrov - 9.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: A once strong career has been much more difficult for Janko Tipsarevic over the last few years as injuries have prevented him from really competing as much as he would have liked. He missed the entire 2018 season after ending 2017 after the US Open and for a little while it sounded like the Serbian player would have to call time on his career.

Instead there was some positive news in December after yet another surgery and Tipsarevic announced he would return to the Tour on a Protected Ranking to play at the Australian Open. Playing the first competitive tennis for almost eighteen months is going to be very challenging for Tipsarevic and the conditions will sap energy that much quicker which makes it very difficult to imagine he stays competitive throughout this First Round encounter.

He does have a good record against Grigor Dimitrov from their previous meetings, but the last of those was some time ago now and almost certainly irrelevant to how the two players will feel going onto the court.

2018 was not a very good year for Dimitrov who was expected to use the win at the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of 2017 to take the next step in his career. Personally I think his window to win a Grand Slam tournament may have closed already, and some of the Dimitrov numbers on the hard courts were very worrying in the last twelve months which suggests he could be in decline already.

A Quarter Final to open the 2019 season will help the confidence, but Dimitrov was a player I was looking to avoid/oppose early in the tournament until this draw was made.

I would expect one set to be pretty competitive because Tipsarevic always had talent, but Dimitrov showed better signs on the return of serve in Brisbane and one of his better tournaments last year came at the Australian Open. I can't imagine how Tipsarevic will be able to maintain his levels throughout this one and once he dips Dimitrov should have the opportunities to produce a couple of clear set wins.

It is a big number, especially for someone who hasn't played to a strong level for some time now, but I will back Dimitrov to cover this one at odds against.


John Isner - 1.5 sets v Reilly Opelka: 2018 was a memorable year for John Isner in terms of results as he reached the Wimbledon Semi Final and earned enough Ranking Points to reach the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time too. However it should be noted that his underlying numbers are perhaps not as strong as they once were and that makes him a top 10 Seed who might not reach the expected Round.

In saying that I would expect Isner to be able to beat his compatriot Reilly Opelka whose game has to be modelled on what Isner has been able to achieve. Opelka is a tall player with a booming serve, but the return leaves a lot to be desired and he will have to improve on that side of the ball if he is going to make the same impact in his career as Isner has made in his.

Unlike Isner, Opelka spends a lot more time in Qualifying and Challenger tournaments rather than playing on the main Tour. He is someone who is going to want to look after serve and then look for one or two big returns to find a way to success, but that is exactly the formula that Isner has mastered at a much higher level.

Two years ago Opelka did almost stun David Goffin in his sole hard court Grand Slam match when taking the Belgian to five sets here in Australia. That will be in the mind of the American, but his overall numbers on the hard courts are just a little inferior to Isner in both serve and return departments and I would expect the older player to have the edge.

John Isner did lose in straight sets to Taylor Fritz in Auckland last week, but Fritz may have a little more on the return than Opelka and I would think it is Isner who finishes with the better returning numbers in this match. Whenever a match has the potential for one or two tie-breakers it can need very little to swing a match in one direction or the other, but I do think Isner can win this match in three or four sets.

It might not be the prettiest match of the day unless you love seeing very short rallies, but that won't bother Isner who is simply looking to progress to the Second Round as soon as possible and with as little energy expended as needed.


Tomas Berdych - 1.5 sets v Kyle Edmund: A number of veteran players have had to deal with injuries in recent years and Tomas Berdych was another who decided to end his 2018 season in June.

The return to the Tour came in Doha where Berdych showed he is back and ready to compete after reaching the Final in that tournament. Now he is set as the favourite to beat Kyle Edmund who reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open twelve months ago, but generally did not have a great time on the hard courts.

The British Number 1 will be earning a lot more headlines in the months ahead if Andy Murray does indeed play his last match at the Australian Open, but Edmund has not been fully healthy in the lead up to the first Grand Slam of the season. A surprisingly early defeat in Brisbane won't have given him much of a confidence boost and Edmund will need Berdych to be off his game to have a chance to defend the huge amount of Ranking Points he earned here last season.

Kyle Edmund will need to serve well to give himself a chance and for the most part that side of his game does work well. He has continued to hold at a high percentage and Tomas Berdych will know the returning element of his own game has been in decline for some time so the Brit has every chance of the upset.

However Berdych was serving very well in Doha and he did look a lot more comfortable with his game when reaching the Final there. In general Berdych's service numbers had been in decline for some time before he decided to end his 2018 season prematurely so it will be interesting to see how that part of his game works in the coming days, although the fitness edge may be given to the veteran in this very intriguing First Round match.

In the conditions those fitness issues could really come to the fore and I think Berdych backs up his performance in Doha with a win in three or four sets.


Alex de Minuar - 8.5 games v Pedro Sousa: The new Australian hero Alex de Minuar won his first title on the ATP Tour in Sydney last week and he has been backed by Lleyton Hewitt to have a strong showing at the Australian Open. Many have compared de Minaur and his work ethic to that of Hewitt who literally got every ounce out of his potential throughout his career and I do think the youngster is one who will do the same.

While not as talented as the likes of Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios, de Minuar looks to be much more grounded and willing to put in the hard yards to maximise the talent he has. There is definitely something there, but, like Hewitt, de Minaur will have to try and out-hustle opponents and I do wonder if the firepower of some of the other players on the Tour may be too much for him.

That is really a question for another day though and I think de Minaur can back up his win in Sydney by progressing through to the Australian Open Second Round. The opponent in the First Round is very much a player who has specialised on playing clay court tennis an Pedro Sousa has managed to improve his Ranking to the point of earning an automatic entry into the main draw.

Sousa has taken that entry seriously be trying to Qualify for tournaments in Pune and Sydney prior to this one in Melbourne, but both times he has been beaten fairly comfortably in the First Qualifying Round.

The Portuguese player simply has not served well enough to keep players from putting him under pressure on this surface and breaking back is not really something he can expect to do regularly. Now he faces de Minuar who showed strong serving on his way to the title in Sydney and the energy on the return should mean the home favourite is going to progress with some comfort.

Despite playing many matches at a level below the ATP Tour on the hard courts, Sousa's hold percentage is under 70% and I think de Minaur will be able to win this one in straight sets and with enough breaks of serve to cover the number.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex de Minaur - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 1.5 Sets @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)