Tennis Picks 2019 (December 31st 2018)

You can begin to understand why some tennis players believe they don't get enough rest time when you see the new Tennis season come round as quickly as it feels the 2019 season has.

And it isn't like players get to spend the first month working their way into form because the first Grand Slam of the 2019 is literally beginning in less than two weeks time at the Australian Open.

That has notoriously been a very difficult Slam to predict with the number of upsets that tend to come up, while rule changes means the break down of the handicaps will be a little different when we get around to that tournament.

Before then this is a week where we have five different Ranking tournaments being played and that means it is a good chance to see which players are going to potentially be a threat in Melbourne. Some of the biggest names won't play a lot of tennis before the Australian Open begins, but the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are in tournament action and this is the most vital week for many of the top names as they won't play the week prior to the start of the Australian Open.


With the New Year festivities to come over the next couple of days, my concentration is likely going to focus on the ATP tournament being played in Doha with more time to research those selections until we crack into 2019.

Next week I am planning to write a longer post about the 2019 season in general and there will be limited Tennis Picks until the Australian Open begins in a couple of weeks time.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: The First Round match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Matteo Berrettini is an interesting one on the hard courts in Doha.

It was not the best 2018 season for Bautista Agut who had some personal issues in his life which may have affected the consistency he could bring to the court. The numbers on the hard court came down from the 2017 ones, but Bautista Agut is still a very competent player on this surface.

He will want to get a little more out of the serve on the faster surfaces to make life a little easier for him, but the Spaniard is a hard worker and will always give his best on the court. The returning could be key against the young Italian Berrettini who had a career year and is up inside the top 60 of the World Rankings which means he is close to getting into a position to automatically earn a place in the main draw of all the tournaments on the ATP Tour.

Berrettini will be looking to build on his 2018 immediately in 2019 as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend through the first three months of the season. A couple of good runs will really see his World Ranking boosted, but the draw could have been kinder to him in Doha.

He has beaten Roberto Bautista Agut in 2018 when winning the title in Gstaad on the clay courts and Berrettini is someone who is arguably more comfortable on the hard courts. On this surface his serve can be a big weapon, but improvement in the World Rankings will come if Berrettini can get a little more out of his return game.

The Italian should have chances to attack the weaker Bautista Agut serve, and he is a threat in this match if he is serving as well as he can. However I do think the courts in Doha may favour Bautista Agut a little more and I think he can win the first match he plays in 2018 although I would not be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker needed.

It won't take a lot for Berrettini to really kick on now he should be playing ATP Tour matches regularly, but I think this draw could be a tough one to overcome and Bautista Agut can earn a measure of revenge for a loss to the Italian in 2018.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: It is quite surprising to me that Fernando Verdasco has managed to get into a position where is going to be Seeded at the Australian Open despite the veteran being a lot more erratic on the court these days. With the Spaniard at Number 28 in the World Rankings, he would not have been Seeded if the Grand Slam tournaments had followed through with a plan to half the number of Seeds at those events, although that was later scrapped and the 32 Seed system will remain.

It is good news for Verdasco who had another decent year on the hard courts even if the 18-14 record does not really indicate that as much as the numbers do. The Spaniard was holding serve at over 80% of the time on this surface, which is a strong number, but Verdasco continues to show enough from the return game to really put pressure on opponents.

I am always wary about veterans though as they can quickly fall off a cliff in terms of their performances on the court, but Verdasco should be safe enough when taking on an opponent who is older than him in the First Round.

Paolo Lorenzi has made the main draw as a Lucky Loser after being beaten in the Second Qualifying Round and the Italian is coming off a difficult season. Injuries have seen the World Ranking drop outside the top 100 for Lorenzi and so it is imperative he puts a few runs together so he can get back into a position where he automatically makes the main draw for Grand Slam tournaments in the year ahead.

The Lorenzi serve is always a vulnerable one and I do think he is going to have a difficult time breaking back in matches like this one if he is not able to hold onto his own serve. The match up with Verdasco is a tough one for Lorenzi anyway as shown by his three previous losses to the Spaniard without winning a set.

Lorenzi does have two matches under his belt in Doha which will help him I think as there has to be some kinks for Verdasco to play out on the court in a first competitive match for two months. However at some point I would expect the Spaniard to start getting some joy from the return of serve and just wearing down an opponent he has gotten the better of in previous matches on the Tour.

It can be hard to trust Verdasco to cover numbers like this one, but he should have the tennis to do that against Lorenzi with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)