With teams on the brink of securing Play Off spots and others trying to fight off elimination, Week 14 is another huge week for teams around the NFL.
It should also be the start of the Fantasy Football Play Offs in most Leagues so this is going to be an important week for fans and players as we get into the final four weeks of the NFL regular season heading towards the January Play Offs.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: The season is all but over for the New York Giants, but the team have not given up playing hard and Odell Beckham Jr said it is all about dragging others out of the post-season the rest of the way. Unfortunately for the Giants, OBJ won't be available for this game after being ruled out on Saturday although the Washington Redskins won't be sympathising with the Giants.
Injuries have helped unravel the Washington Redskins season and even though they are only a game out of the NFC East lead, it feels much bigger than that having lost three games in a row which includes defeats to the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The bigger key is the fact that Washington are down to their third choice Quarter Back as Mark Sanchez takes over from Alex Smith and Colt McCoy who have both suffered fractured legs to end their seasons. Smith's injury sounds quite serious, but McCoy should recover fully although anyone trying to tell me Sanchez is better than asking Colin Kaepernick to play and citing 'football reasons' needs to find a new sport to follow.
It was no surprise watching Monday Night Football and seeing the Redskins barely able to move the ball against the Eagles once Sanchez came into the game. He is not going to have that long to expand his knowledge of the playbook from where it was on Monday and Sanchez is going to have another tough afternoon simply because he is not really a NFL level Quarter Back.
Sanchez won't be helped by the injuries on the Offensive Line and it is going to be very difficult for him to step back and make throws with the Giants expected to get pressure on him. The game plan will likely be leaning on the running game and keeping the Redskins in third and manageable spots, but the Giants should know this if they have done their homework and that means I expect New York to really look to clamp down on Adrian Peterson and force Sanchez to have to make the throws to keep the chains moving.
Odell Beckham Jr's absence is a big one for the Giants, but Evan Engram is expected to play which gives Eli Manning an important weapon in the passing game. The Giants have won three of their last four games, which probably frustrates the fanbase who were hoping for a very high Draft Pick, but the players for the Giants are performing for future employment so won't tank things away.
The Washington Defensive Unit are still playing well so it won't be an easy day for the Giants, but they are going to find it tough to stay motivated if Sanchez struggles as he may well do. One aspect they don't do so well is stopping the run and that may spell trouble with Saquon Barkley showing why the Giants took him as high as they did in the First Round of the last Draft and I expect Barkley to be involved massively throughout this Divisional game.
I do think there will be times when the Washington pass rush rattles Manning and he has to be careful of throwing the ball in those situations, but Eli is still some way better than Mark Sanchez. With the likely better support at Running Back, I think Manning finds a way to move the ball and keep the points coming and the Giants can cover this spread as the road favourite.
The Redskins have a poor record playing after Monday Night Football as they have gone 2-7 against the spread in the last nine in that spot, and I think the injuries have seen the season fall apart for them.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Nine straight wins has seen the Houston Texans put a 0-3 record firmly behind them as they have taken complete control of the AFC South Division. At the moment they are 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans and 3 games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and another win on Sunday would put the Texans on the brink of making the Play Offs.
There may be bigger ambitions perhaps at play for the Texans than simply playing Play Off Football in January and that may be sneaking a Bye through to the Divisional Round. They have the same record as the New England Patriots and are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs so keeping the winning run going is very important for the Texans.
In Week 13 Indianapolis Colts laid an egg as they failed to score in a road loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars which leaves their Play Off ambitions teetering over the cliff. Andrew Luck had been in great form prior to that game, but I don't want one game to cloud over the fact that the Colts have been playing very well to get back into the Play Off picture.
These two teams played a really close one in Indianapolis which was won by the Texans in Overtime earlier this season and everything is pointing to another close one in Week 14. That makes the points with the road underdog look appealing, but Indianapolis will need Luck to be at his best for that to happen.
You have to respect the Houston Texans Defensive unit which has some quality players in it, but there are also some holes in the Secondary which I would expect Luck to exploit. If TY Hilton can't go it would be a blow to the Colts, but Luck has been well protected by his Offensive Line and I think they can give the Quarter Back just enough time to make his plays down the field much like he did in the first game between these teams.
Marlon Mack didn't have a good outing at the Jaguars last week, but I think he could have some success here as Houston look to stop the pass. Ripping off a few big runs should keep the Texans honest and allow Luck to get back to the strong passing days he had been producing prior to Week 13.
I think Deshaun Watson is more than capable of staying with Luck in a shoot out, but he is perhaps going to be under more pressure than you would expect. The Colts have been able to get a fierce pass rush going and the Houston Offensive Line is not the best, although Watson is a smart Quarter Back to identify pressure and also the athlete who can escape the pocket and make plays with his legs too.
Lamar Miller has been running the ball well for the Texans, but the Indianapolis Colts have played the run well and the Defensive unit have really stepped up from where they were a year ago. There will be drives that the talent of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will extend, even from third and long spots, but I can't see the Texans blowing out the Colts who will be looking to prove they are much better than the effort showed in Week 13.
The Colts are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five games in Houston and they have a strong record against the spread against this Divisional rival in recent years. Houston are a hard team to oppose considering how well they have cashed in at the window in recent weeks, but I will take the points with the underdog here.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The first thing you have to note is how poor a record the New England Patriots have in Miami against the Dolphins in recent years despite dominating the AFC East and much of the rest of the Conference. It's not like they have played in Miami early in the season when the focus is not quite as sharp as it will be in Week 14, but a number of the losses have come in December or January and the Patriots can't really afford to slip up in order to gain the best Play Off position.
Once again they have dominated the AFC East and a win over the Miami Dolphins will secure a Play Off spot. However the Patriots are more interested in trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and they are currently have a record tied with the Houston Texans and a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs, although the Patriots hold the tie-breaker over the Chiefs having beaten them earlier in the season.
Winning out may give New England every chance of securing the Number 1 Seed so they will head to South Florida with a big goal on their mind. Tom Brady has perhaps shown some signs of slowing down which makes it harder to really believe in the Patriots going on and winning the Super Bowl, but he should have the right support to beat the Dolphins even in a Stadium where Brady has had his troubles.
While Brady may not be playing quite up at the level he can, the Patriots can lean on the running game in this one with Sonny Michel likely backing up the 100 yard game he had against Miami earlier this season. The Dolphins Defensive Line is strong on the ends, but they have struggled to stop the run and the respect for Brady and the passing game will likely mean Michel can produce a very big game for them.
That could open things up for Brady who has quality Receivers in Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordan and Julian Edelman and the Quarter Back will be aware that Miami could be missing their best player in the Secondary. Brady will get a quick release when he does pass to make sure the Miami pass rush can't disrupt things and I do think the Patriots will be able to move the ball throughout the game barring them melting in the heat of Miami.
Miami will look to do that by controlling the clock and this team have been able to do that when Ryan Tannehill has been at Quarter Back. They have shown they can run the ball effectively and clamping down on the run has been difficult for the Patriots although I imagine Bill Belichick will try and take that away from the Dolphins and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm.
The Dolphins Offensive Line has had some troubles in pass protection of late which would be a concern if they are finding the running lanes harder to come by if the New England schemes are in place. Asking Tannehill to throw to Receivers who have come in to replace some of the injured starters and have consistent success may be too big an ask and I could see the New England Patriots just turning the screw in this one.
There is no doubt the Dolphins are tough to play in South Florida where teams visits and are not used to the temperatures you will find. However the Dolphins are also 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a winning record and they are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one games played in December.
New England are 17-6 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games and they won here two seasons ago in January so I will look for the Patriots to secure a big road win and cover this big number.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This may be a non-Conference game, but in a sixteen game season every game means something and that is especially true for the Denver Broncos who are making a late push towards the Play Offs.
At 6-6 the Broncos are not going to win the AFC West which is being dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are very much in contention for one of the Wild Card spots. There isn't much room for mistakes though as the Broncos know they likely need to win out if they are going to achieve their goals and they will be having to do that without Emmanuel Sanders.
Sanders has gone down with a season ending injury and a team who have traded away Demaryius Thomas to the Texans may be short at Receiver. However the Broncos have a dynamic Running Back duo with Philip Lindsay making a mockery of the fact he was not Drafted in the Seven Rounds of the Draft last year.
Lindsay and Royce Freeman should be able to get the Denver Broncos up by running the ball effectively throughout this game and I think they are going to give the San Francisco Defensive Line real problems to deal with. The Broncos Offensive Line has loved paving the way for their Running Backs and it should make Case Keenum's job that much easier when it comes to making plays through the air against a Secondary that is not that good outside of Richard Sherman.
Keenum has hardly been lighting the board up through the air, but he won't need to make huge plays if Denver are running the ball effectively, while the Quarter Back may also be given short fields if Nick Mullens is not able to have a big game for the San Francisco 49ers.
It should be said that the Denver Defensive unit is not up to the level of the team that won the Super Bowl for Peyton Manning, but injuries are hurting San Francisco all around and Mullens is showing why he was a third string Quarter Back.
Matt Breida is also out of action for the 49ers so the pressure may be on Mullens to push himself more than he would want to in order to keep the 49ers in this one. The pass rush is going to be something for Mullens to deal with, but he should also have some success through the air against a Denver Secondary that has not been as strong as they would have wanted.
However they have been able to turn the ball over and Mullens is having issues with Interceptions blighting his game of late and I think that makes the difference here. He will have some success, but Denver are going to make the big plays at the key times which will help them overcome the 49ers and cover what is a pretty big number for any road favourite with the hook going with the home underdog.
Denver did have a pretty poor record as a road team at the window under Coach Joseph, but they have covered in their last four road games and I think they can do that here.
MY PICKS: New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Jets + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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