Midweek Football Picks 2018 (December 11-13)

It's been going on for years and now the media want to pull back and take no responsibility for the pretty crappy scenes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

How long has it been obvious the media have had it in for Sterling and how long must people outside of that profession note the racial undertones to the criticism? I've tweeted on at least two previous occasions that the media are a joke for the way they disparage Sterling and I've noted some of the stories that seem to be led by the fact he is a young, black player and he, among others, are held to a standard that doesn't seem to apply to young, white players.

Others have been criticised and it seems those are based around the colour of the skin- I have written down my disgust at Mark Lawrenson's apparent disregard for Darren Moore being given the WBA permanent manager's job back in April, yet I don't hear the same for Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard who have been given similar breaks and arguably with less experience Moore had at managing at the highest level.

Again that felt more about Darren Moore being an inexperienced, black manager and being held to a higher standard than inexperienced, white managers tend to be.

The media can now look to put their hands up and try and act like it has nothing to do with them that Sterling was targeted for abuse, but they have put him in that position. It's no point highlighting his positive aspects now when they have spent years breaking down his character and portraying an image for people to consume about Sterling, people who have never met him.

I've got no personal affiliation with Sterling- he has played for the two clubs I dislike the most in the Premier League. However I am also very aware of the issues ethnic minorities face in the UK and for a long time I think Sterling has taken the brunt of the abuse that typically middle class, white journalists have had for him.

It's been nothing short of a bullying campaign and one that has enabled those racist idiots at Chelsea to feel they can use some of the rubbish they did and feel they will be able to get away with it in a Stadium of 40,000 people.

An utter disgrace to say the least.


This is an issue that will soon be swept under the carpet by those journalists who are faking outrage at the moment and nothing will be resolved. The football will also move on and this week we have the final round robin of Group matches in both the Champions League and Europa League.

A number of teams have already secured passage to the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions, but order of places are still up for grabs and others still have work to do.

Barcelona, Porto and Real Madrid are the only guaranteed Group Winners, but the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain may be favoured to join them. It makes finishing 2nd in a Group really tough considering the kind of Last 16 that likely awaits and it would be something of a surprise if the eventual Champions League Winners are not from that list of eight teams provided.

Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool would likely have something to say about that, but the former have blown their chance to win the Group ahead of Atletico Madrid and need a huge favour from Club Brugge to do that, while the latter is not guaranteed of making the Last 16 at all.

It is obvious that Porto would be the 'plumb' draw for any Runner Up, but we will see how it all shakes up on Tuesday and Wednesday before the Last 16 draw is made next Monday.

The Europa League Group Stage is also concluded on Thursday and it is a big day for Scottish Football as both Celtic and Rangers look to make it through to the Last 32. Celtic are more likely to do that than Rangers, but I wouldn't rule out the latter either as they look to join Arsenal and Chelsea who have already made it through the Group.

Like the Champions League, Group Winners and Runners Up are separated and drawn together, but again we will see how it shakes up before those Last 32 ties are paired together for February 2019.


Schalke v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: The standings are already in place in this Group with Porto going through as the Winners and Schalke finishing up as Runners Up. That can make it very difficult to predict how a dead rubber is going to go, but Lokomotiv Moscow do head to Germany with something to play for.

The Russian Champions looked an uneasy top Seed when the draw for the Champions League was made and it has proven to be the case as they are bottom of the section. Now they need to win in Germany and hope Galatasaray are not able to beat Porto at home, but their own part is not going to be easy for Lokomotiv Moscow.

The side have been beaten comfortably in both home games played and Schalke have to be thinking about bouncing back immediately after losing to Borussia Dortmund here in the derby this past weekend. Prior to that result Schalke had won 3 in a row at home and they score plenty of goals which makes them very dangerous.

A lack of motivation has to be a concern for home backers, but Schalke have seen their price drop over the last couple of days and I do want to be behind them here too. I think that lack of motivation has been factored into the prices and Schalke are a strong home team who may be able to exploit gaps if Lokomotiv Moscow have to chase the game.

With the goals being scored by Schalke in front of their own fans, I think the Bundesliga club can get the better of Lokomotiv Moscow who can head into their Winter Break ready to focus on their return to domestic matters in the new calendar year.


Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid Pick: A couple of years ago Club Brugge really struggled when they earned their place in the Champions League Group Stage but they are far better this time around. In what was a tougher Group, Club Brugge have really found some positive results and the draw at Borussia Dortmund underlined the progress they have made.

A spot in the Europa League has already been earned, but there will still be much excitement at hosting a team like Atletico Madrid who have been amongst the best in Europe in recent years.

Club Brugge can play spoiler for Atletico Madrid too as their visitors need to win here to secure top spot in this Group. Anything less will give Borussia Dortmund the chance to finish above them in the section and so there is some real pressure on Diego Simeone's men who have not been at their best away from home this season.

With the Champions League Final to be hosted in their Stadium, Atletico Madrid will be keen to earn an 'easier' Last 16 tie which will come as Group Winners. Winning here won't be easy and Club Brugge gave Atletico Madrid something to think about in the reverse fixture in the Group, but you have to really believe the Spanish club are going to dig down deep and earn the result they need.

I can't imagine it being a really high-scoring game so backing Atletico Madrid to win a fixture featuring no more than three goals is the call.


Crvena Zvezda v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: Having failed to beat Liverpool and Napoli twice in this Group, Paris Saint-Germain left themselves in a pressurised position in a competition they are desperate to succeed in. The home win over Liverpool on Match Day 5 was huge for them as they now control their own destiny and a win over Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade will be enough to move through to the Last 16.

This won't be a walkover for Paris Saint-Germain as both Napoli and Liverpool have failed to win here. A draw would be complicated for PSG if Liverpool are able to beat Napoli on the same night so the focus has to be a win in Belgrade and potentially winning the Group too.

As a Champions League favourite you have to expect Paris Saint-Germain are able to win here. Crvena Zvezda frustrated Napoli on Match Day 1, but the Italians had a host of chances in that one and PSG have players who are very capable in front of goal.

The Liverpool defeat here complicates the thinking, but I think they were very poor on the night and made it easy for their hosts. If Paris Saint-Germain play as poorly as Liverpool did they deserve to go out of the Champions League, but I think the players are focused having been in a very difficult position a couple of weeks ago and I don't think they let this opportunity slip through their hands.

The Asian Handicap is a big one considering the results Crvena Zvezda have had at home in this Group, but Paris Saint-Germain are the kind of team who can put the lesser lights to the sword as they do back home in France. The first goal will be critical, but if PSG can get that in the first half hour of this game I think they can make it a routine win on the night and move into the Last 16 as Group Winners as long as Napoli have not won at Anfield.


Inter Milan v PSV Eindhoven Pick: There will be some eyes on the game being played at the Nou Camp between Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur, but Inter Milan have to make sure they do all they can to be put into a position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.

It all means focusing on the fixture to be played at the San Siro on Tuesday as the Champions League Group Stage comes to a close. At the moment Inter Milan are behind Tottenham Hotspur on the head to head, but bettering the score Spurs earn at the Nou Camp will mean Inter Milan overtake them and they have to believe that Barcelona won't lose at home at the very least.

That match in Spain is going to be close and I think Tottenham Hotspur will have their chances, but Inter Milan won't worry too much about that when this fixture kicks off. Instead Inter Milan have to make sure they don't offer PSV Eindhoven any encouragement and perhaps put them in a position where the motivation is taken out of the visitors who are already out of European competition until July 2019 at the earliest.

Inter Milan have been very strong at home so you can see why they are favoured to win this game and I do think they will be able to do that. PSV Eindhoven have to be respected because they have not been blown away in the Champions League despite the obvious raise in quality they are facing, but it has been evident that PSV Eindhoven are simply not quite good enough at this level.

The Dutch Champions are not the best travellers and the attention should be on domestic matters where Ajax have cut the gap between the teams. That potential shift in focus should mean Inter Milan can continue what has been very strong form at home and I think this will be a rare occasion where the Nerazzurri can not only win at the San Siro, but win by a comfortable margin on the night.

All eyes will then shift to Barcelona to see if Tottenham Hotspur have secured the Runners Up spot or not, but for this game I think Inter Milan do their side of the equation as they look to sneak into the Second Round.


Liverpool v Napoli Pick: If someone had said to Jurgen Klopp a win over Napoli at home on Match Day 6 of the Champions League Group Stage would be enough to earn a Last 16 berth I think he would have signed up for it when the draw was made in August. However it is the manner of the way Liverpool have gotten here that will have hurt the manager and now they have a pressurised situation in December that they would have preferred to avoid.

Even then you would think Liverpool are going to come into this one with plenty of confidence having won 7 of their last 9 home Champions League games since August 2017. They have beaten the likes of Manchester City, Roma and Paris Saint-Germain here and scored plenty of goals in those wins, while Liverpool just crushed Bournemouth in the Premier League to move to the top of their domestic League table.

There is no doubt that Liverpool will feel they can score goals against Napoli, but the Italian side should not be overawed by the occasion having played some big games themselves in recent years. Domestically they have improved, but Carlo Ancelotti was brought in as manager to improve Napoli in Europe and being unbeaten through five games in this Group is a real achievement.

Making it six will be enough to make the Last 16, but Napoli have not been the best recent travellers in the Champions League. They are also in a difficult position of trying to work out of they should stick or twist knowing a draw is enough, but I do believe their best policy may be to try and get on the front foot and put their hosts under some pressure.

For all the good defensive work in the Premier League, Liverpool have looked more vulnerable in the Champions League so Napoli should have chances. They have scored at least twice in 4 consecutive away games including in the 2-2 draw at Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli have dangerous customers in the final third that deserve plenty of respect.

However there are some defensive vulnerabilities about Napoli too having conceded at least twice at Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain. It points to an entertaining game at Anfield where the goals could flow as it feels one team will always be chasing something in this fixture.

The first goal is going to be crucial to the outcome of this one and I think both teams will be able to create chances against the other with both expecting to find the net. My initial lean was Liverpool would have too much for Napoli and win this game, but a narrow win in which Napoli score won't be enough so I can see a situation develop where spaces are left by either side as they chase the result they need.

One aspect could change things and that is if there is news Paris Saint-Germain are losing by a wide margin in Serbia. In that case a narrow Liverpool win might suit both these teams involved, but that's a long way away in this match and I am expecting plenty of attacking football to be the order of the day.

Backing at least four goals to be shared out is the call, a play that would have been a victor in 6 of the last 9 Champions League games played at Anfield including both played this season. It was also the outcome of Napoli's trip to Paris Saint-Germain and is an appealing enough price for this important final Group game for the two teams involved.


Monaco v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Match Day 6 can be a tough time to get a read on teams simply as some of the ambitions of the Group would have been completed and managers may choose to rest players ahead of important domestic games.

I am not sure that will be the case in this one though.

Monaco have had a week to prepare for this fixture after seeing their derby game with Nice postponed due to the big protests going on around France over the last couple of weeks. A number of League games were postponed with those protests in mind so Thierry Henry may choose to pick a strong starting eleven to build on the momentum of winning their last League game seven days ago.

That could happen despite Monaco being knocked out of European competition already, but Henry is trying to pick up the confidence of the players for what looks like being a season long struggle to avoid relegation. The recent home is not that inspiring though and Monaco have lost 6 straight Champions League games here as they have struggled defensively to contain the quality of teams they face.

It is certainly a quality team heading to Monaco as Borussia Dortmund still have ambitions of winning this Group despite losing control of the section following a goalless home draw with Club Brugge a couple of weeks ago. For the most part Borussia Dortmund have not put a foot wrong this season which sees them open up a decent lead at the top of the Bundesliga as well as secure a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Borussia Dortmund will still want to win the Group though and they will know a win could be good enough if Atletico Madrid fail to win in Brugge. It isn't out of the question that happens so I believe Dortmund will be motivated to perform here and earn a measure of revenge for the loss in the Champions League Quarter Final two seasons ago.

The German side do have plenty of goals in the side and should be able to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Monaco and I will back Borussia Dortmund to win here. They have only won 1 of their last 8 away Champions League games, and Borussia Dortmund have only scored 1 goal in 2 away Group games, but Monaco concede goals for fun and I think the visitors can be backed to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow Pick: The first four months of the 2018/19 season have been erratic for Real Madrid to say the least, but they have won four games in a row heading into Match Day 6. Qualification for the Last 16 of the Champions League has already been earned, and Real Madrid have already won the Group, but they will want to keep the momentum going before trying to win more silverware in the calendar year next week in the World Club Championship.

Revenge may be on the minds of the players after Real Madrid were beaten by CSKA Moscow in the reverse fixture in this Group. A strong team has been predicted to start this game despite Real Madrid being back in League action on Saturday and I think they should have too much for their visitors.

CSKA Moscow have not been the worst travellers in European competition over the last couple of seasons, but they are in a difficult position of needing to better the Viktoria Plzen result if they are going to drop into the Europa League. The shocking home loss to the Czech side has put CSKA Moscow in this position and I think they may need goals in this one which also leaves them vulnerable at the back.

This is not the Real Madrid of a few months ago and they are capable of throwing in a really poor performance, but they have won 4 straight home games in all competitions and this remains a very tough place to play. With their visitors likely having to chase the game at some point, Real Madrid can produce a comfortable victory as they underline their position as Group Winners and put the Champions League aside for a couple of months.


Viktoria Plzen v Roma Pick: There will be some eyes on the other game in this Group and seeing how CSKA Moscow are getting on, but Viktoria Plzen control their own destiny and will believe a point is good enough to definitely move into the Europa League. Settling for a point too early is not really the way for them though and instead I would expect Viktoria Plzen to at least try and trouble a Roma team who are through to the Champions League Last 16 and have already been assured of finishing behind Real Madrid.

The visitors are not in the best form of late which should encourage Viktoria Plzen all the more, but they have also found the top two teams in this Group very tough opponents already.

Closing that quality gap won't be easy for Viktoria Plzen, but at least playing at home gives them a chance to try.

Roma are a very capable team in front of goal so they are dangerous, but recent games have seen them look a little vulnerable at the back too and I can see a situation where both teams score. The point might be enough for the home team and Roma won't have a real motivation to get forward and chase a late winner so the 1-1 result concerns me, although I feel an early goal could really open this up to be a good game of football and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out.


Benfica v AEK Athens Pick: Last season Benfica made history by becoming the first top Seed in the Champions League Group Stage to fail to earn a point. This season they have improved a little bit, but they must be disappointed to already be out of contention for a spot in the Last 16 of the Champions League before Match Day 6, although Benfica will have the benefit of knowing they are going to be playing European Football after Christmas in the 2018/19 season.

I don't think it is a stretch to say Benfica have fallen off the standards they had been setting in recent years. Even with that in mind I would have thought they would have been closer to Ajax in this Group, but the Dutch side look much improved as they confirmed a spot in the Last 16 by picking up 4 points in the double header with Benfica.

This is yet another dead rubber in the Champions League this week but I still think Benfica are going to be far too strong for an AEK Athens team who have struggled at this level. The Greek side have lost all five games they have played in the Champions League and they have conceded at least two goals in each of those games and I think it makes it very difficult to pick up points when you are defensively vulnerable like that.

AEK Athens have been comfortably beaten in both away games in this Group and I think Benfica can make that three from three. Benfica are not back in action until Sunday so they can give this a real go even though they have nothing to really play for, and I think the home team will be able to win by a couple of goals on the night.


Manchester City v Hoffenheim Pick: Last season Manchester City lost their first Premier League game of the season in January and they followed that up with 6 wins from 7 games in all competitions to maintain the momentum they had built up. Pep Guardiola will be looking for a similar reaction in the busy December calendar after the defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday although he will also be hoping for some reinforcements with the squad looking a little stretched at the moment.

Manchester City still need a point to secure top spot in the Group after the 2-2 draw in Lyon on Match Day 5, but I would still expect some rotations to be used by the manager during this time of the season. Big games are coming thick and fast for Manchester City, but they can bring in the likes of Danilo, Nicolas Otamendi, Vincent Kompany, Ilkay Gundogan and Gabriel Jesus for this one which looks to be coming too soon for Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero.

Whichever starting eleven is picked, Manchester City can't expect to get an easy ride from Hoffenheim even if their visitors have only earned 3 points from a possible 15 in the Group.

It's not for a lack of goals that they have not been able to secure more points than they have. Hoffenheim have scored 10 goals in their 5 Champions League games and only 1 of their 5 games have seen them score fewer than two goals. Hoffenheim have hit at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions including in both Champions League Group games, but defensively they can be erratic to say the least and that is the main reason Hoffenheim have not been able to produce more wins than they have.

They will go to the Etihad Stadium and have a go at Manchester City, but that does leave Hoffenheim vulnerable to the counter attack and I think this is a fixture that is likely going to produce chances and goals. The attacking threat posed by Hoffenheim makes it hard to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap even if I believe they have a positive reaction to the defeat on Saturday, but there is a market that has stood out.

With the need for at least one more point to win this Group, I expect Manchester City play a strong team and one capable of winning this game. I do think Hoffenheim will play a part and goals have flowed in the Bundesliga club's recent away games thanks to a strong attack and a very poor defence.

5 of the last 6 Manchester City home games have featured at least four goals shared out and that number of goals being scored has been a regular occurrence in this Group. With that in mind I think Manchester City can be backed to win this one and with four goals to be shared out on the evening.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon Pick: Group F of the Champions League has been about the most exciting in terms of close games and plenty of goals being scored. On Match Day 6 it is the turn of Shakhtar Donetsk and Lyon to face off with a place in the Champions League Last 16 on the line when they meet in the Ukraine.

The Lyon games in particular have been amazing to watch with a real attacking threat mixed in with defensive vulnerabilities. For a team to take 4 points from Manchester City and still need a result to make it out of this Group is a huge surprise, but shows Lyon you can't just expect to out-score teams at this level.

I don't think the policy will have changed though and Lyon will head to Shakhtar Donetsk with goals on their mind having scored at least two goals in all 5 Group games. However the last 4 have all ended in draws since the surprising 1-2 win at the Etihad Stadium and those draws for Lyon read 2-2, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2.

In the home game with Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon came from 0-2 down to earn the 2-2 draw and they know another draw here will be enough to make it through to the Last 16. However the Ukrainian Champions are very good at home and they will believe their own attacking capabilities can expose the defensive issues Lyon have had in the Champions League.

Like Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their 5 Group games feature at least four goals. The difference between the teams has been the two beatings Shakhtar Donetsk have absorbed against Manchester City and that is why they are trailing Lyon in this Group.

In the other 3 games in the Group, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored at least two goals and conceded at least two goals and I am not surprised the layers are expecting goals. It can be colder at this time of the year in the Ukraine, but these two teams are capable of warming things up in an entertaining game where both will likely be chasing goals at some point.

The defending has not matched the attacking capabilities shown and I think this will be another game in the Group featuring at least four goals.

MY PICKS: Schalke @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet365 (2 Units)
Inter Milan - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool-Napoli Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benfica - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk-Lyon Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Valencia-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)