There were no Picks last weekend because of events outside of my control, but the Week 16 Picks will be added to this thread in the next several hours.
Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans Pick: In Week 16 of the NFL season there are always going to be games of tremendous importance and it no longer matters whether the games you are playing are Divisional, Conference or non-Conference ones at this stage of the regular season. The two teams who open up Week 16 will know all about it when the television cameras head to Nashville for this Saturday afternoon game.
The Tennessee Titans (8-6) are hosting this one and they are chasing what is likely to be the Number 6 Seed in the AFC, although the likes of the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens are their main rivals for that spot. The Titans have won two games in a row when it looked like their season might be going down the toilet and that will give them confidence to take into this game.
Their opponents are the Washington Redskins (7-7) who came back to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 to stay alive in the NFC East. The win over the Jaguars means Washington are just a game behind the Dallas Cowboys for the Division lead with two games left to play, but the Redskins will only be able to overcome all of their injuries and make the Play Offs if they win out and receive a bit of luck from other teams in the Conference.
Washington are down to their fourth choice Quarter Back having seen Alex Smith and Colt McCoy lost to serious injury, while the decision to pick Mark Sanchez to come in was quickly realised to be a poor choice. Now it is Josh Johnson who will be playing for the Redskins at Quarter Back and leading the team to a win in Jacksonville means the fans will be behind him even if many are questioning why Washington refused to consider Colin Kaepernick.
That decision may be the one that prevents Washington in making the Play Offs, but they don't deserve much else when giving Sanchez an undeserved shot at redemption in the NFL. I don't like being too harsh on players, but Johnson is not a serviceable Quarter Back at this level and Washington are going to have to use a lot of deception if they want to move the ball in this one.
Running the ball straight at the Titans will not really work with the Tennessee Defensive Line showing they can clamp down on the run all season. They've been even more improved in that department as they have embarked on a winning run to close out the season and keeping Washington in third and long spots will mean the Titans are exactly where they want to be.
Johnson isn't going to have a lot of time even if he was a prototypical NFL Quarter Back because the Offensive Line is banged up and the Titans have a powerful front four who can get to the Quarter Back. The pressure up front has meant it is difficult to throw the ball against this Secondary and I do think Tennessee's Defensive unit is going to make it very difficult for Johnson and Adrian Peterson to get going and thus make it hard for the Redskins to move the chains consistently.
Being alive in the Play Off race should give Washington plenty of motivation to perform, but the Defensive Line and Linebackers have to show they are willing to make the big tackles to do that. It has been possible for teams to run the ball on the Redskins of late and Tennessee might be playing as well as any team when it comes to crashing through the trenches with their Running Backs.
Derrick Henry has been the star over the last couple of weeks and he can continue from where he left off in Week 15. In recent games the Redskins have given up some big yards on the ground and Henry could be able to have a huge game in what is usually Championship Weekend for Fantasy Football players around the world.
Marcus Mariota is able to run the ball from the Quarter Back position too, although the Titans won't risk their starter and instead will use Henry and Dion Lewis in tandem in the backfield. The Quarter Back has not been concerned with how the Titans have looked to win games and I don't think he will mind not having to throw the ball as long as Henry and Lewis continue to rip off huge gains.
It will open up the play-action passes for Mariota and I do think it could be difficult for Washington to remain motivated if they are struggling in the trenches on both sides of the ball. We saw them collapse against the New York Giants, while their Play Off hopes may still be alive but they are also facing a very motivated Tennessee team.
The Redskins had been blown out in back to back games before the win over the Jaguars in Week 15 and I think they could suffer a big loss here. The spread is a big one, but Tennessee have won a couple of games in a row by a wide margin and they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games.
As well as Washington did to win last week, they will have much more trouble stopping the Tennessee Offensive Line from opening lanes for Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. They have struggled to back up straight wins in the last couple of years as the Redskins are 5-11 against the spread in the last sixteen after a win and I am going to have a small interest on Tennessee being able to come through with a big win that ends Washington's season.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: All credit has to be given to Head Coach Anthony Lynn who decided he would go for two points at the end of regulation in Week 15 as the Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) managed to beat the Kansas City Chiefs and earn a Play Off spot. If you think the team will be satisfied with that then you would be mistaken and the Chargers will know if they win out and the Chiefs trip up then it will be Los Angeles receiving the Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season.
In fact winning out and finishing 13-3 will be enough for the Chargers to have home field advantage throughout the Play Offs if the Chiefs lose one of their final two games. That has to be giving Philip Rivers huge motivation as he is also one of the leading contenders to win the MVP award while he may not have too many more chances to reach a maiden Super Bowl.
Week 15 looks a difficult game for the Chargers though as they host the Play Off chasing Baltimore Ravens (8-6) who have found a spark since Lamar Jackson was given the starting Quarter Back spot ahead of Joe Flacco. That has been a decision that has not gone down well with Flacco, but the Baltimore players are much more confident in Jackson and they have responded with four wins from five games with the sole loss coming in Overtime at the Kansas City Chiefs.
It may not be an ideal match up for the Ravens as they are facing a Chargers Defensive Line who have really tightened up against the run. In general the Defensive unit have been playing very well, but Jackson is a different kind of Quarter Back than to any they have seen so far this season with Baltimore essentially using the run option to get things going for their team.
The Baltimore Offensive Line has relished blocking for the Running Backs and Quarter Back to move the chains on the ground, but Jackson is a capable passer too. He hasn't shown that too much at the moment, but running the ball should mean the Ravens are able to employ pass-action and at least give their young Quarter Back to make plays down the field.
This is going to be a test for Jackson at Quarter Back, but veteran Philip Rivers is not going to have things all his own way when playing one of the top Defenses in the NFL. I love how Rivers has been playing for the Chargers and they are looking more dangerous when you think Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen both are expected to be available for their starts.
Gordon has been banged up and I am not sure he is going to be able to have a huge game here considering how well Baltimore have played the run. I also think Gordon will have to share carries in the backfield as the Chargers won't want him running on empty in January so the Ravens could at least force Rivers to try and beat them through the air.
There is no doubt Rivers is playing some confident Football at Quarter Back and the way he rallied his team to beat Kansas City underlined that. However this week he is playing a much better Secondary than the one the Chiefs have and Rivers found himself under siege last week by the Kansas City pass rush and there could be something similar at play in Week 16.
Baltimore are able to get to the Quarter Back and the Chargers Offensive Line are going to have trouble giving Rivers a lot of time to make his plays, although shutting down the veteran completely is asking a lot. What I do think will happen is that Baltimore will be able to control the clock with the Offense and the Defensive unit will be able to keep them in this game and so getting more than a Field Goal worth of points is appealing.
The underdog has gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series. Baltimore have an 18-7-4 record against the spread in their last twenty-nine road games against a team with a winning record at home, while the Chargers are just 2-5 against the spread in home games since moving to Los Angeles.
Both teams have plenty on the line on Saturday, but I will take the points with the road underdog and make a play on the Baltimore Ravens.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Only a miracle play at the end of the Divisional Game against the New England Patriots in Week 14 kept alive the hopes of the Miami Dolphins to make the Play Offs. However they were crushed without much of a fight in Minnesota to drop back to 7-7 and that means the Dolphins are clinging onto their post-season hopes by their fingernails as they look to win out in the final two weeks of the regular season and hope for plenty of help.
With the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers dominating the AFC West it does mean one of those teams would take one of the two AFC Wild Card spots. That has left Miami as one of a number of teams battling out for the final Wild Card spot, but the loss to the Minnesota Vikings means the Dolphins are already at least one game behind a number of other teams which means chances of reaching the Play Offs are slim to say the least.
They are still far better than the disappointing Jacksonville Jaguars who have followed up a run to the AFC Championship Game by producing a 4-10 record. Instead of cutting Blake Bortles at the end of the 2017 season, the Jaguars were fooled by the run to the Championship Game that they had a serviceable Quarter Back and they have found out the hard way in 2018 that Bortles is not good enough for them.
Cody Kessler has not really impressed in relief so the Jaguars look to be a team that is going to be looking for a new Quarter Back in the off-season. The most likely suggestion is they look to bring in a veteran that can help a talented Defensive unit take the team very far into the Play Offs in what is a small window of success open for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars won't worry about trying to get Kessler to produce the kind of game that he has not been able to since taking over as starter of the team from Bortles. Instead the Jaguars will look to have the kind of success many teams have had against the Miami Dolphins and that is by running the ball and then attacking the Secondary with play-action passes once the pass rush has been negated.
Leonard Fournette could be missing for Jacksonville, although I still expect the Jaguars to have some big runs on the ground. Any time Miami can at least make some stops they should have a chance to get to Kessler and that is going to be the key for them.
If the Dolphins can stall a couple of drives, they will feel their own Offensive Line is playing well enough to open some big holes for the Running Backs in this one. Frank Gore has suffered a season ending injury, but Miami showed they can crack some big runs without last week in the defeat in Minnesota and they are facing a Jacksonville Defensive Line that has been gashed in recent games.
It will be music to Ryan Tannehill's ears if Miami can dominate on the ground and ease any pass rush he is going to be facing from the Jaguars. The Offensive Line has not really protected Tannehill as they would like and the Quarter Back has had his fair share of injuries over the last couple of years and he could be a little banged up here which means he will need more support from the running game.
Tannehill has played better at home and Miami as a whole have been strong in front of their own fans which may give them the edge here. Motivation for Jacksonville is hard to determine, but I have a feeling they may be more interested in trying to play spoiler at the Houston Texans in Week 17 than facing Miami in Week 16 even though this is an in-State rivalry.
In this series the favourite has improved to 5-2 against the spread in the last seven between these teams. The Dolphins are also 6-1 against the spread at home this season and I think they can round out their home schedule with another win to just about stay alive in the Play Off race for one more week.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: I don't like the New England Patriots, but I absolutely respect them and it has become something of the norm to expect this team to not only make the Play Offs, but have home field advantage in January. Go back a couple of weeks and you would think they are very much on course to do that, but back to back losses to the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers have knocked the Patriots down to 9-5 for the season and they are chasing a Bye through to the Divisional Round.
When you have become so used to seeing a team dominate like the Patriots have tended to do, it is no surprise that people have questions about what is going wrong. This week there have been suggestions that Tom Brady is playing through some kind of injury, while New England had some bad news when Josh Gordon was suspended indefinitely as off-field issues continue to blight his career.
Rob Gronkowski has not played as well as expected and all in all things don't feel great for the New England Patriots.
However I think you can write them off at your peril and the feeling is that they will bounce back and produce a big game against Divisional rival the Buffalo Bills who are 5-9 in what is a rebuilding year. Even though a losing record has long been secured, the Bills are clearly playing with some heart and determination and that has seen them put more wins on the board than losses over their last five games.
Josh Allen may split opinions as to whether he can be a franchise Quarter Back for the Bills but he has been playing well enough. The majority of the positive plays Allen has put together have been with his legs though and Buffalo are going to try and become the latest team who can rip off some huge gains on the ground against New England whose Defensive Line has been suffering.
This is a Bill Belichick Defensive unit though and I think he is going to focus on making sure the rookie, who didn't play against New England earlier in the season, is not able to have the success that has made him comfortable in games. I would expect Belichick has spent the entire week focusing his Defensive play-callers on working out a way to clamp down on the run and make sure Allen has to beat them with his arm.
LeSean McCoy will likely be able to suit up to give Buffalo another running threat, but his biggest impact may be to catch the ball out of the backfield. Josh Allen should be able to make some decent throws in this one, but he could be under pressure from the Patriots pass rush if the run game has been controlled and Allen has also had a tendency to throw a pick too.
In that case the Buffalo Defensive unit have to step up as they have continued to play at a high level for much of the season. This is a team that is strong up front and has a Secondary who thrive thanks to the pressure those players on the Defensive Line get up front.
Tom Brady had some success against them earlier in the season though and the likes of Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead can help spark some of the run game in this one. The latter two could be a big threat coming out of the backfield, while Julian Edelman will look to find the soft spots in the Secondary and step up his play with Josh Gordon sidelined.
New England have dominated the last four games in this series and I think they are going to be able to bounce back from back to back losses and get back on the winning trail. The Patriots have covered in each of the last four games against the Buffalo Bills and they are 5-1 against the spread at home this season while finding a way to dominate their Divisional rivals again.
The Patriots have some stunning home numbers, especially against teams with losing records, and the Buffalo Bills are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen Divisional games.
I know the consecutive losses the Patriots have suffered makes it hard to trust them, but this is the kind of spot in which New England have USUALLY thrived. Since 2001 they have gone 8-3 against the spread when playing of back to back losses and they have won those games by an average of 17 points per game.
It makes it a little more comfortable to back a team to cover this kind of monster spread and I will look for New England to show they are not quite as finished as some have suggested over the last couple of weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: You don't want to lose momentum in Week 15 of the NFL regular season when chasing spots in the Play Offs, but the Dallas Cowboys feel their defeat to the Indianapolis Colts will stand them in good stead. That loss dropped them to 8-6 for the season which means they are a game clear of the Philadelphia Eagles going into Week 16, but two wins over the Eagles means the Cowboys are still firmly in control of earning a Play Off spot for the second season in a row.
A win in Week 16 will do it for the Dallas Cowboys, but they will be feeling intense pressure if they are not able to get the better of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whose season is effectively over. The Buccaneers are a disappointing 5-9 for the season and they are about to make some big changes with likely moves as far as the Head Coach and potentially the Quarter Back position are concerned.
Jameis Winston may essentially be auditioning for his next job in the final two weeks of the season and he is coming off a tough outing against the Baltimore Ravens when the entire Tampa Bay team struggled for Offensive consistency. Everyone knows how strong the Ravens are Defensively, but the Dallas Cowboys will feel they are playing at a very good level and can also shut down what Tampa Bay want to do.
Running the ball against a strong Defensive Line has been very difficult of late and the pressure Dallas can get up front has led to improved numbers from the Secondary too. I would expect the Cowboys may be able to break through this Tampa Bay Offensive Line and force Winston to move around the pocket before trying to hit Mike Evans down the field.
Evans is going to make some big plays as the top Receiver he is, but the Cowboys have been very good Defensively and will believe they can stall enough drives to give the ball back to Dak Prescott and his Offense.
It's hard to know what to feel about Dak Prescott and whether he really is the franchise Quarter Back that the Cowboys think he is. The arrival of Amari Cooper has been a boost for Prescott and the Cowboys, but they may go back to their fundamentals in this one and that is running the ball for much of the afternoon through Ezekiel Elliot.
The Buccaneers Defensive Line has really struggled when it comes to stopping the run and I am not sure how high the motivation will be to get down and dirty in the trenches in this one. There are a couple of banged up players on the Offensive Line for the Cowboys, but I think they will still enjoy getting a push and opening things up for Elliot who should be able to crack some big runs.
That only makes life easier for Prescott who should be able to use play-action and run-option plays to make sure he is able to throw the ball to Cooper. Last week the connection struggled as the Cowboys made numerous mistakes in the Indianapolis half of the field and failed to convert a number of Fourth Down attempts, but I expect a much more focused effort from Dallas this week and I do like them to win this game and by some comfortable margin too.
Dallas have bounced back from blow out losses by going 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following a loss by 14 points or more. The Cowboys are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home and I think they may be facing an opponent who is not completely focused in wanting to dig deep enough to win this game so I do like the home team here.
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: At this point of the season motivation of players has to be considered when spreads are being created for games and I have no doubt that is part of the reason why the Indianapolis Colts are seen as such strong favourites to beat the New York Giants.
The Colts are 8-6 and still very much chasing a place in the Play Offs which begin in a couple of weeks time and they need to win this game and then are potentially locked into a winner takes all game with the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. On the other hand the New York Giants are 5-9 and were officially knocked out of the Play Offs last week when beaten by the Tennessee Titans.
Add in the fact that Odell Beckham Jr is going to be sitting again and the Giants are playing a non-Conference game and the motivation simply may not be there. An even greater factor could be that the Giants are looking past the Colts as they finish off the season hosting the Dallas Cowboys and could potentially have a chance to ruin the season of one of their biggest rivals.
Aside from a really strange performance at the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts have been flying in recent weeks as Andrew Luck has really settled back into the team. No will doubt the talent Luck has at Quarter Back and he has sparked this team, although give a huge amount of credit to the Offensive Line who have been able to give Luck all the time he needs to throw the ball.
Indianapolis have plenty of balance Offensively too and Marlon Mack's performances have cooled down suggestions the Colts will make a play for Le'Veon Bell in Free Agency. Mack was the superior Running Back on the field in Week 15 despite sharing the limelight with Ezekiel Elliot and the Colts should be very comfortable moving the chains however they want to do it in Week 16.
That should especially be the case if the Giants are not playing quite as hard as they could and it means pressure on Eli Manning and the Giants Offense to try and keep up with the Colts. Manning is surely playing his last couple of games for the New York Giants and is looking to bounce back from a performance in which his team failed to score a point, although it is tough without Beckham Jr on the field.
Saquon Barkley has been huge for the Giants and proven his worth as a high Draft Pick, but the Colts have been strong up front and found a way to shut down the run. I am convinced the focus will be on stopping Barkley by any means necessary and making Manning ask more out of the other playmakers on the field and that would be the smart Defensive move with OBJ out of the team.
The Colts Defensive unit have perhaps flown under the radar with fans concentrating on how well Andrew Luck and the Offense have been playing. However this is an Indianapolis Defense which is much improved from last season and have an ability to slow the run and get to the Quarter Back, while the Secondary have been able to make plays against opponents throwing under pressure.
It would not be a big surprise if the Colts create one or two turnovers to really take control of this game and I like them to win and cover. I have to respect the Giants for covering in their last six road games, but the focus could be on finishing up against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17 and trying to play spoiler for them rather than a non-Conference opponent they see once every four years.
The Giants are also 4-10-1 against the spread in their last fifteen games against a team with a winning record at home. Add in how well the Colts have played against teams with losing records and I will look for the home team to cover a big number.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets Pick: Aaron Rodgers has declared he is going to finish up the season for the Green Bay Packers in what has been a poor season by the standards set by this team. At 5-8-1 the season is over and Rodgers has been playing through multiple injuries which meant it was suggested Green Bay shut him down for 2018, but Rodgers himself wants to be a leader by taking to the field in the last two weeks of the regular season.
It is all change for the Green Bay Packers in the off-season with some serious decisions to be made. A new Head Coach is coming in and Clay Matthews needs his contract rejigged so there are questions about a team who are desperate to help Rodgers win a second Super Bowl ring which is the minimum they would have expected with the best Quarter Back in the NFL.
With Rodgers declared available, I can't say I am surprised the public are pounding the Packers in Week 16 against the New York Jets who are putting the finishing touches on another losing season. There may be changes in the Jets management roles in the weeks ahead too, but this is a team who have been competitive no matter what the 4-10 record will suggest.
That competitiveness may be the reason the sharps are on the Jets this week with the spread coming down below a key number 3 in a number of places ahead of this game. You can still find the full Field Goal start with the Jets and that is the play in this one as far as I am concerned.
Sam Darnold is playing Quarter Back for the Jets as he looks to take on more experience while growing as the franchise Quarter Back of this team. Darnold has played well at home to be honest and I think he can have a good game against an injury hit Green Bay Secondary that may be playing out the string.
The Quarter Back showed an ability to scramble away from pressure in the loss to the Houston Texans in Week 15 and Darnold should be able to have success finding Robby Anderson down the field when he is given some time. He should be aided by the Jets being able to run the ball against a weakened Green Bay Defensive Line and I think the Jets can give their visitors all they can handle.
I would expect Green Bay to be able to move the chains too as long as they making the right play calls- when you have a Quarter Back like Aaron Rodgers it can be easy to decide to pass way more than you run the ball, but Joe Philbin has to have done some homework and that means giving the ball to Jamaal Williams to run the ball.
Williams takes over from Aaron Jones and played well in the Week 15 defeat to the Chicago Bears and he should have more room for success against this New York Defensive Line. The Green Bay Offensive Line have paved the way for some big runs, but they have not been so effective protecting Rodgers when he drops back to throw. And that is an area where the Jets will feel they can really get after Rodgers who may be a little gimpy from the knee and hamstring issues he has been dealing with.
Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over too often, but I do think the Jets can stall some drives and I like them with the points. The Jets are 9-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog off a home loss and Green Bay have struggled on the road all season both straight up and against the spread.
The underdog are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in the series between these teams and I like the Jets here.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: He hasn't looked right for a few weeks now and the decision has finally been made by the Carolina Panthers that they will not play Cam Newton in Week 16 and he is very unlikely to play in Week 17. It isn't a surprise after the Panthers were beaten at home by the New Orleans Saints in Week 15 which has seen their record slip to 6-8 and with their Play Off hopes in tatters after six straight losses.
It is the kind of losing streak which will have Head Coach Ron Rivera sitting on the hot seat as Black Monday approaches. At one point it looked like the Carolina Panthers would be able to challenge the New Orleans Saints for the best record in the NFC, but instead they will be missing out on the Play Offs and wondering what might have been this season.
The same could be said for the Atlanta Falcons who are 5-9 and arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL along with the Jacksonville Jaguars. There is so much talent on the Falcons roster, but the window for success in the NFL is very small and there has to be some questions as to how 2019 can be a lot better than this season has been.
Julio Jones is banged up and could be missing for the Falcons in Week 16, but they are still favoured to win on the road against an opponent who could be deflated after events in Week 15. Losing a game they should have won to stay alive in the Play Off mix and then seeing the starting Quarter Back shut down will hurt and it is Taylor Heinicke who will be making his first career start at that position.
Without Cam Newton, you have to believe the Falcons are going to look for a way to slow down the run by clamping down on Christian McCaffrey who has had a very strong season for the Panthers. His threat is helped by the running ability of Newton, but I don't think the Falcons will respect Heinicke in the same way and instead will try and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to beat them through the air.
By forcing Heinicke to throw the ball, I do think the Falcons are going to be in a position to stall drives as the Secondary have improved in recent games. They crushed Josh Rosen last week and I don't think Carolina have the playmakers outside of McCaffrey who can really hurt the Falcons consistently so the visitors have every chance of winning this game.
The spread moved a whole six points once Newton was ruled out, although my one doubt about backing Atlanta is how poorly they have played. Matt Ryan and the Offense have not been anything like as good on the road as they have been at home and even then they have struggled in most venues this season.
Losing Jones would be a blow, but I think Atlanta will be able to rip off some big runs through Tevin Coleman in this one as the Panthers energy level may not be where it was against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15. The Defensive players may be focused on the revenge game with the Saints in Week 17 which could prevent New Orleans finishing with the best record in the NFC, and that could mean Atlanta are able to take advantage of this spot.
Matt Ryan has to be aware of the pressure Carolina can get up front, but running the ball should slow down any pass rush and I do like the Falcons here.
Atlanta have matched up well with Carolina in recent meetings as they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these Divisional rivals. Both teams have struggled when playing teams with losing records as they have not been able to cover the spread, but the Falcons look like they could have the energy to find the win in this one against an inexperienced Quarter Back and a Defensive unit that is just off an A++ effort.
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: If you think the Chicago Bears are going to be satisfied as NFC North Champions behind their 10-4 record you will have to think again. This is a team that believes they can win the Super Bowl and that means finishing out the season hard enough to try and secure a Bye into the Divisional Round of the Play Offs by winning out.
They will have to be careful when they head west to take on the San Francisco 49ers considering how much confidence their hosts must have picked up. This is the third home game in a row for the 49ers and they have won the last two as the underdog so they won't worry about their spot here as they bid to improve their 4-10 record in what has been a disappointing season.
High hopes have long gone with injuries hurting the 49ers, but they remain competitive and wins over Play Off chasing teams Denver and Seattle show how tough they can be at home. There has been some fortune attached to those wins and Nick Mullens and the Offensive unit may need more of that if they are going to be competitive against the Chicago Bears who look to be heating up at just the right time.
The Bears will feel they have enough Offensively to move the chains consistently in this one. As well as San Francisco did in controlling Philip Lindsay when he played for the Broncos here, the Defensive Line has struggled against the run and they are going to get a heavy dose of that from the Chicago Bears who also have a Quarter Back capable of making plays with his legs.
That should give the Chicago Offensive Line time to protect Mitchell Trubisky when he does step back to throw the ball and I think the Bears will be able to score their points.
However, like with every game this season, the key is the Chicago Defensive unit who may be the very best in the NFL. Matt Breida may actually have more room to run the ball than he has in recent games as there has been some problems for the Bears to stop the run on the Defensive Line. In recent games Breida has been a threat but has not exploded for huge gains and the 49ers will need him if they are going to create a third upset at home in a row.
Nick Mullens will need everything Breida can get on the ground because he is likely to be under intense pressure whenever he is in obvious passing downs. The San Francisco Offensive Line is not the best anyway, but now they face a Bears Defensive Line that loves causing havoc in the backfield and I think it will be difficult for Mullens to move the ball through the air barring more funny stuff from the officials like we have seen in the Seattle win last week.
The Bears also create a lot of turnovers so they will feel they can give their Offensive unit more possessions and I like Chicago to keep their chances of receiving a top two Seed by winning this week.
Chicago do have a poor recent record in San Francisco, but this is the best Bears team to visit in a long time. Despite the home covers in each of the past two weeks, San Francisco are just 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two home games and they are 7-17-1 against the spread in their last twenty-five when playing a team with a winning record.
The Bears are now 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games and I will roll with them through one more week at least.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The pressure on the Pittsburgh Steelers has built up, but they have only themselves to blame after blowing games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders. A battling win over the New England Patriots helped their cause in Week 15, but the tie with the Cleveland Browns very early in the season means the Steelers are 8-5-1 and just behind the Baltimore Ravens who are flying towards the Play Offs.
It does mean the Steelers either need to win both of their remaining games or hope to split their final two games and hope the Ravens slip up in Week 17. A team with the Super Bowl aspirations Pittsburgh had back in August will have some major questions to answer if they are failing to make the Play Offs so the Steelers have to find their best in Week 16.
Only the best is expected to be good enough when the Steelers visit the New Orleans Saints who have a 12-2 record and one more win will be enough for the Saints to make sure they hold home field advantage through the Play Offs. The Saints showed they can win in a different way when beating the Carolina Panthers in a low-scoring battle in Week 15, but that was on the road and New Orleans have been considerably better at home.
Much is likely to be on the shoulders of Drew Brees who has not been at his best in this month. While the Saints have two dynamic Running Backs in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been very good at playing the run so their biggest impacts will potentially be as Backs coming out and catching short passes from their Quarter Back.
Drew Brees should still have time to pass the ball even in obvious passing downs because of the performance of his Offensive Line. He is also facing a Pittsburgh Secondary which has holes in it, but Brees has to hope some of the other Receivers step up outside of Michael Thomas who is likely to be followed by Joe Haden.
I do think some will, but New Orleans have some questions to answer about themselves Offensively, although the Saints are also much improved Defensively.
The Steelers will be hoping James Connor is going to be able to play this week, but they showed in the win over New England that the Offensive Line is very capable of paving the way for whoever starts in the backfield. It is likely to be more difficult against the New Orleans Saints whose Defensive Line has played very well in clamping down on the run, but they have just been in a physical game with the Panthers and that may offer Pittsburgh more chances to establish the run.
The Secondary have stepped up in recent games too which will give New Orleans encouragement, but stopping the Pittsburgh Steelers through the air is difficult. JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a huge weapon for the Steelers and he is expected to suit up which makes it difficult to control him and Antonio Brown and I would expect Ben Roethlisberger to have a solid game here.
It makes the points being given to the Steelers that much more appealing.
Pittsburgh are 19-6-2 against the spread in their last twenty-seven games against a team with a winning record at home although it is never easy to oppose the New Orleans Saints at home. The Saints have some incredible numbers, but the Steelers are desperate and I think Big Ben can at least produce a drive to get within this number.
MY PICKS: Tennessee Titans - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 4 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
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