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Saturday, 12 September 2015

US Open Day 13 Picks 2015- Women's Final (September 12th)

This has been a pretty poor tournament for the picks now that both Serena Williams and Simona Halep have been beaten in the Semi Finals of the Women's tournament at the US Open and I will admit it has surprised me how up and down the event has been.

Aside from Roger Federer, I don't think I can pick another player that has consistently maintained a strong level through this tournament and I actually think Federer should perhaps begin as the favourite to win the Men's title on Sunday.

I need to have a sit down and think about that on Saturday evening/Sunday morning, but for now I will concentrate on the Women's Final which is surprisingly being contested by two Italian players Roberta Vinci and Flavia Pennetta.

Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 games v Roberta Vinci: There is no doubting that both Roberta Vinci and Flavia Pennetta are going to be dealing with a lot of nerves in their first Grand Slam Final on Saturday. It is easy to say they can try and forget what they are playing for, but both players are in their 30's and will know they probably won't have a better chance to win a Slam in their careers.

It is a big surprise to see these two players in the Final despite their previous success in New York City and both came through as the underdog to win their Semi Final.

However, I think Roberta Vinci is coming off the bigger emotional high and I do wonder how much she will have left in the locker for the Final. It is so difficult to win a match of the magnitude that Vinci did when knocking off Serena Williams chasing a season Grand Slam and then come out the next day and play the Final.

The victory means all of the press requests and the focus on the Final will have landed on Vinci's side of the court and that builds a different kind of pressure on her that will also be tough to deal with. Flavia Pennetta has to be happy with that as she can concentrate on playing the match and her win has been overshadowed by Vinci's which again will suit her just fine.

Flavia Pennetta beat Roberta Vinci convincingly when they met here two years ago and Pennetta has won 3 of the last 4 matches between these players, although those matches were played between 2009 and 2013.

This is clearly going to come down to which of the players deals with the pressure best, but I think the emotional and physical drainage is going to be on Vinci's side of the court. It would take something special for Vinci to pick herself up from her best performance of her career and reproduce that form and I think Pennetta has looked the stronger player in the last couple of Rounds.

I think Pennetta is going to have to come through some tough moments when the nerves get the better of her, but I don't think she'll see her level drop as much as Vinci potentially will. After a tough first set, Pennetta can take control of this match as Vinci perhaps just begins to wilt a little and I like her to win her first Grand Slam title behind a 64, 62 win.

MY PICK: Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

US Open Update: 36-38, - 8.53 Units (147 Units Staked, - 5.80% Yield)

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