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Wednesday, 23 September 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (September 23rd)

The final Grand Slam is in the books, the Davis Cup and Fed Cup Finals have been set and the tennis season begins to wind down in the coming weeks as 2015 gets set to enter the books.

It might be the end of the majority of the big events, but there are still plenty of things to play for as players look to improve their Ranking positions which can have a real impact at the Australian Open in January, while others are looking to get themselves into a position to play in Singapore and London at the End of Year Championships on both WTA and ATP Tours.

Motivation in some of the tournaments can be an issue, but there are other big ones that have yet to be played and I think it is going to be key over the next couple of months to really pick the matches a little closer. Second guessing players is difficult so it might mean making picks after the first couple of days of the week, like I am this week, when players are perhaps more focused knowing a title is closing in.

In the Masters/Premier Events left and some of the ATP 500 events, the motivation should remain high and there are likely to be more picks out of those weeks.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Barbora Strycova: This is the first match Garbine Muguruza is playing since her surprising Second Round exit at the US Open, but the Spaniard is in good shape to reach Singapore.

It does mean ending the season on a bright note as she is battling against a few players to make the top eight, but Muguruza is good enough to reach the WTA Finals. She can make a good start towards that goal by beating Barbora Strycova who is an awkward customer for any player that is even slightly below their par game.

There might not be as much talent in the Strycova game as many others on the Tour, but she works hard and has the movement and consistency to extract errors from opponents. The serve can be a weakness and that is an area Muguruza can punish if she is feeling her game, but we won't know exactly how she is feeling until she takes to the court.

That makes Muguruza a difficult player to back with a lot of confidence but the Spaniard hammered the Strycova serve when they met on the clay courts of Stuttgart earlier this year. She should have an opportunity to do that here which should lead to a fairly routine 75, 64 win for her after coming through some difficult moments.


Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Madison Brengle: Both Angelique Kerber and Madison Brengle won First Round matches in Tokyo by the same 62, 62 scoreline and will be confident going into this match.

Over the last few months, Kerber has really rediscovered her game after struggling in the early months of 2015 and she is now challenging for a place in Singapore next month. The German is a little too inconsistent for my liking and the serve can be a particular weakness which has prevented her from perhaps winning too many really big titles.

There is no doubting what she can do on the court, but Kerber needs to be able to protect serve better if she is going to take another step in her development. It is the best players that can punish her serve, but Kerber won't be intimidated by Madison Brengle who had done a lot of losing in the middles of this season.

The American works hard on the court, but Kerber should have the defensive movement and shots that can extract errors from the Brengle performance. Kerber can also turn defence into attack very quickly and I think her movement wins this match and helps her earn a Quarter Final spot with a 64, 62 win.


Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: Dominic Thiem returns to the court on Wednesday and will be looking to make it three wins out of three against Andreas Haider-Maurer over the last couple of months. Both players are happier on they clay courts, but Thiem has had success on the indoor hard courts in the past.

However, Haider-Maurer will be ready too having won a match in St Petersburg this week already which should have him in tune with the conditions. He can be a dangerous player when his mind is really in the match, but Thiem is the more talented player and can wear him down as he has the last two times they have played.

The danger that Haider-Maurer possesses when fully engrossed in a match does make this spread a dangerous one. Taking a set will put him in a very strong position to cover even in a losing effort, but I think Thiem's talent comes through here. Thiem didn't have a great end to last season once the US Open was over, but I am looking for him to show he has matured and make a strong effort to try and end the season in the top 20 of the World Rankings.

Winning matches like this will certainly aid him in that quest and I like the Austrian finding a 76, 63 win in this match.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Davis Cup Final: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.5% Yield)

Season 2015- 13.77 Units (1552 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

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