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Monday, 28 September 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (September 29th)

It was a very good week for the tennis picks last week and I hope to continue with the moment as we move onto the tournaments taking place this week. I didn't make any picks from the matches in the first couple of days this week, but I am interested in three Second Round matches in Wuhan which will take place in the early hours of the morning UK time.

Suffice to say I won't be doing much watching of the tennis at the moment because of the time differences, but I try and keep as much information together from various avenues to find out how players have played. Using that coupled with other factors means I can continue making the tennis picks as I would for other tournaments even if I don't get to see much of the action at all.

Let us just hope for another positive week to get the season totals moving back into the black and making it another season with a winning record, although I am clearly disappointed that the majority of the hard work was wiped out in the space of six weeks.

Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games v Madison Brengle: One of the most inconsistent players on the WTA Tour has to be Ana Ivanovic who can go from looking like a top five player to one who has barely picked up a racquet before in the blink of an eye. I think that has been a major factor in her inability to put more tournament wins on the board, while I really think she struggles to control her emotional state when things get difficult on the court.

Ivanovic is not the best at making the adjustments she needs to and her serve goes all over the place when under duress... However, I don't think she should be feeling the pressure when facing Madison Brengle and I think Ivanovic can prove too good in this Second Round match.

It has been a good season for Brengle who is up to Number 38 in the World Rankings, while she earned a very positive win over an in-form Dominika Cibulkova in the First Round. The American has decent movement around the court, but Ivanovic should wear her down with the power she possesses and the top players have generally been too good for Brengle.

Ivanovic had a very strong win in the First Round and it is hard for her to maintain that level. I don't think this will be as straight-forward with service breaks for both players, but I still believe Ivanovic will be just a little too much physically and that should see her move through 64, 63.

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Angelique Kerber has fallen out of the World's Top Ten in the Rankings, but the second half of the season has been much more positive than the first half. I fully expect the German to move back up into the Top Ten in the coming months as she will have little to defend in the first six months of 2016 and she can certainly end 2015 on a high note.

I do think Kerber will be too strong for Jelena Jankovic at this stage of the career, especially as the Serb's consistency is not at the same level as when she reached World Number 1. Her movement is also a little slower than it used to be and that means her defensive skills have just eroded a little, but all of that makes a big difference at this level of tennis.

Jankovic did win a title last week so will be confident, but that also means fatigue can play a part as she was forced to play three sets to beat Heather Watson in the last Round. The increase in competition is fairly high in this one as I think Kerber is unlikely to give too much away for nothing and is a better player than Jankovic these days.

The German has won the last two matches between the two including a thumping win on the grass of Birmingham and Jankovic does find it harder to back up big weeks on the Tour these days. After a tight first set, Kerber might just pull away in this one and move through 75, 63.

Johanna Konta + 5.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: I never doubted that Johanna Konta had the talent to be much higher in the World Rankings than outside the top 100 and it feels good to see her fulfilling her potential.

She will officially become the Great Britain Number 1 female player next week at the end of this tournament and once again has shown she is unafraid of those at the higher level. Coming through the Qualifiers was an achievement in Wuhan, but beating Andrea Petkovic for the second time in four weeks shows Konta's level of confidence.

Now she is facing another level up from Petkovic as she goes against Victoria Azarenka who should be more aware of the Konta game after her run to the US Open Fourth Round. Azarenka has struggled for the consistency to bring her Ranking back up to the pre-injury level, and this is a match that Konta has half a chance if she serves well and puts the pressure on Azarenka.

We have seen Azarenka is not always the best emotionally this season when it comes to pressurised situations and Konta is the kind of solid, level player that might not give too much away. The British player should not be overawed having given Petra Kvitova plenty to think about at the US Open and beating the likes of Petkovic and Garbine Muguruza and this looks like a lot of games for her to be given, one she should stay within even in a losing effort.

MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta + 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Betway (2 Units)

Weekly Final10-4, + 10.22 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.5% Yield)

Season 2015- 3.55 Units (1580 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

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