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Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (September 30th)

It was a mixed start to the picks from the week as one player won, one player lost, and one was leading before her opponent pulled out with an injury. Retirements in matches are more common at this time of the season when players have had a lot of months of tennis in the body and perhaps are beginning to look ahead to the 2016 season.

There are players who will really reduce the schedule following the US Open if their main goals have been achieved, although most of the big names are out in Wuhan this week for one of the big events left this season.

With only seven weeks left of the season, the 2015 season is quickly winding down and the focus is on seeing which players confirm their places in Singapore and London for the End of Year Finals and there is still some interesting matches to be played as players look to set a marker down for the 2016 season.

Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: When you look at the way both Venus Williams and Carla Suarez Navarro approach matches, I am stunned to see it is the Spaniard that has the winning record in their head to head matches. I would have thought Venus' power would prove too much for Suarez Navarro to handle, but it hasn't been the case so far clearly.

A couple of the Suarez Navarro wins have come on a hard court, but she has been in terrible form over the last three months and confidence is simply not in a great place. When you are having to work hard for whatever you earn on a tennis court, lacking confidence just means hitting the ball a little shorter than you would like, or perhaps not going for the winners that you might do when feeling a lot better about your game.

It affects shot selection and Venus Williams is directly opposite to Suarez Navarro having produced some solid wins in recent weeks. Williams had a great run at the US Open before finding younger sister Serena a little too good in a fascinating Quarter Final, but Venus has bounced back with solid wins over Agnieszka Radwanska and Julia Goerges this week in Wuhan.

Suarez Navarro is just 6-9 since reaching the Final in Rome back in May and I think Venus Williams gets some revenge for her loss to the Spaniard in Miami. I like Venus Williams to come through 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals.

Camila Giorgi + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It was a tougher match than I expected for Angelique Kerber when she beat Jelena Jankovic in three sets, but importantly the German has maintained her recent form. She should be too good for the erratic Camila Giorgi who has been very inconsistent since winning the title in Hertogenbosch back in June.

Giorgi had a battling win in the First Round against Tsvetana Pironkova and benefited from Belinda Bencic retiring after the first set on Tuesday. She has plenty of talent, but she doesn't always know the best way to control the power she has and her shot making can go down the toilet when under pressure.

The serve is also as much a weapon as it is a hindrance- while she will secure a lot more cheaper points than Angelique Kerber, the second serve Giorgi possesses is a real liability with plenty of double faults never that far away.

Someone like Kerber certainly has the defensive skills to frustrate Giorgi and earn plenty of unforced errors out of her game. However, I like the Italian as someone who builds confidence and can become very dangerous the longer she goes in a tournament and her one and half wins will aid that confidence.

When she releases the pressure and play on instinct, Giorgi is a real handful for any player on the WTA Tour and I think she can give Kerber plenty to think about it with this number of games in the pocket.

Tommy Robredo - 5.5 games v Hiroki Moriya: You don't want to underestimate a player that has come through the qualifiers and then won a main draw match like Hiroki Moriya has, but Tommy Robredo should have a considerable edge in the match.

The Spaniard can't always be trusted to cover big spreads because his service games can be described sloppy at best when he is slightly below par. However, he is playing an opponent that is not exactly going to be able to hit through him consistently and I think Robredo has had enough time to recover from travelling here from Russia.

Robredo did show some solid form in St Petersburg, but this is a big number being asked of him to cover, one that he isn't too used to doing in recent weeks. However, he is playing against an opponent who has rarely managed to get to this level with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit and I think Moriya could be surprised by the amount of balls Robredo is able to return back to the court.

While he has had some wins on the hard courts, Moriya has suffered a number of heavy defeats on the surface and I will look for Robredo to wear him down 64, 62 in this one.

Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 games v Benjamin Becker: A Quarter Final place is up for grabs in Kuala Lumpur and Jeremy Chardy certainly has been playing well enough over the last couple of months to think he can take it ahead of Benjamin Becker.

Chardy had to dig deep to beat the young and talented Alexander Zverev in the First Round, but he looked to be getting stronger as that match went on. He has a decent serve, when it is working, and Chardy should also have the better of Becker when it comes to the extended rallies and I do really believe the Frenchman is capable of covering this number which I think is at least a game short of where it should be.

I have respect for the Benjamin Becker win over Sam Groth, but that has been a rare high point in the last few months and he is actually 4-9 since pulling out at the French Open. Confidence issues and perhaps some physical issues haven't helped Becker reversing his form and now facing a player that is feeling really good about his game is tough to overcome.

If Becker serves at his very best, he can make this competitive and perhaps even steal a set, but I think Chardy wins the match. If Becker is slightly under par, the Frenchman should win 63, 64 and it would take a serious turnaround in form from Becker to prevent that happening.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

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