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Sunday, 20 September 2015

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2015 (September 20th)

Once again it looks like the third rubber, the Doubles rubber, is going to be the key for Great Britain winning a tie and this time it will mean they are likely to be moving through to the Davis Cup Final.

Let's face it, Andy Murray has been a huge key to the success for Great Britain and he has been a dominant force in the Quarter Final and Semi Final. With Murray up first on Sunday, Great Britain will be expecting to confirm their place in the Final thanks to the sixth rubber that Murray has either won on his own or with his brother Jamie.

Great Britain haven't really been able to rely on the second Singles player over the last couple of ties, so Murray's form has been vital to their progress, and you can't take anything away from the team.

With the stand out player left, Great Britain will be a big favourite to go on and win the Davis Cup regardless of who they play from the other Semi Final. It looks finely balanced with Argentina winning the crucial Doubles rubber against Belgium to take a 2-1 lead, although the Belgium team are favoured to win the final two Singles rubbers.

Neither one of those teams have a Doubles team that Great Britain won't expect to beat and Argentina have arguably less of a chance than Belgium simply because their Number 1 player is no sure thing to win the rubber against the weaker British player as David Goffin would be for Belgium.

There is work to do for Belgium to get into that position and it looks like the fifth rubber might be the one that decides it all on Sunday.

The draws for the next ATP events have been made over the past day and both tournaments in Metz and St Petersburg have decent fields attached. We won't see too many of the top names out on the court until the Asian swing now as the season reaches the last couple of months and those months might not be as exciting as it was last season.

That is because the top eight look in a great position to secure their places in London for the World Tour Finals without the usual battle that we have seen in recent years. David Ferrer in eighth place has a fairly healthy lead over ninth placed Richard Gasquet, but hopefully there will be some intrigue about those places over the next six weeks before the Tour returns to London for the final week of the season.

Andy Murray - 7.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Great Britain tennis fans will be hoping that Andy Murray is celebrating putting his nation into the Davis Cup Final at the end of this match. No one would want the drama of a fifth rubber in which Australia would be a big favourite to win and I expect Andy Murray to come through and wear down Bernard Tomic.

The one rubber that Australia have won is thanks to Tomic, but he had to dig far deeper than he would have liked against Dan Evans on Friday and a similar level won't be good enough here. Of course Andy Murray has had to play the first two days, but I think he has made it clear he is on a limited schedule the rest of the season and I expect Murray is going to empty the tank for this one.

Murray was in fantastic form on Friday although there will be some tiredness this time. However, he is going to make Tomic work hard for everything he earns in this match and it is a match up that Murray should enjoy as his previous two wins over Tomic suggest.

For all the talent the Australian has, there is some doubt about his mental toughness when things start to go against him. Tomic has a decent pop on the first serve, but his second can be a weakness and he is too happy to get involved in the finesse side of the game which just works perfectly for Murray who is a better defensive player and I'd back his fitness over Tomic most of the time.

If Murray serves well he can begin to take Tomic's heart away from the fight and I think he will just wear him down physically and mentally. That should see Murray eventually drag Great Britain into the Davis Cup Final after a 63, 64, 62 win.

David Goffin - 5.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Belgium are desperate for their talisman David Goffin to extend this tie and I think he has every chance of doing that against Leonardo Mayer.

The two Number 1 players in the tie meet in the fourth rubber and I think David Goffin has a bit more about his all around game for Mayer to cope with.

There is little doubt that Mayer has the heavier weight of shot as far as I am concerned, but the movement on the court and the physical fitness should favour Goffin. Unlike Goffin, this will be the third day in a row that Mayer will have had to take to the court and he had to dig deep to beat Steve Darcis in a closer match than expected.

Goffin also made hard work of his opponent on Friday, but not being involved i the Doubles rubber should give him a little bit more energy in the tank. I do think Mayer is capable of forcing a tie-breaker in the first couple of sets, but Goffin should ultimately be able to call on more reserves when things do get difficult that can see him through.

The home crowd will be hoping Goffin serves better than he did on Friday when he allowed Federico Delbonis to get comfortable in the match, and doing that should lead to a 76, 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Davis Cup Update: 1-2, - 2.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 39% Yield)

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