There isn't much time to go for the schools around the nation when it comes to the regular season and the final three weeks will all be about becoming Bowl eligible and winning Conference titles. Last week was a strong week for the picks and I hope I can keep finding the right teams to pick this week too to keep up what has been a good season so far.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: There isn't much chance that Ohio State will get into the National Championship Game unless one of the top two teams are beaten down the stretch, but there is the motivation to put up big wins to try and sway some votes and sneak in.
The Buckeyes have had two weeks to prepare for this game after crushing Purdue and I expect the Offense to roll throughout this game.
With a spread of this size, the key is whether Illinois can put up enough points to at least keep this close and the Offense has shown they can get going.
However, this is probably the best Defense they have faced outside of Michigan State and Illinois only managed to score 3 points in that game. Indiana and Wisconsin have both put up at least 52 points against this Defense and I like the Buckeyes to win and cover, but keep an eye on the spread which is at least coming down towards the low 30 mark.
Troy Trojans @ Ole Miss Rebels Pick: The Troy Trojans will have to play a lot better than they did in their blow out loss at Mississippi State, but they have an Offense that should perhaps be given a little more respect than the 28 points suggests.
Turnovers would be a problem if Corey Robinson can't limit the mistakes as it is unlikely that the Trojans Defense will make enough plays to shut down this Offense with any regularity. Turning the ball over will make it tough to cover the spread, but Troy is certainly capable of putting up enough points to make a 4 Touchdown headstart look far too much.
A non-Conference game for Ole Miss may not have their full focus with the huge game against Missouri next on deck and the Trojans can put all their attention into this one with a bye next on deck. That spot also makes the points look attractive in this one.
UCF Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: UCF Knights have won their 2 big games so far this season in the Conference after taking out the previously unbeaten Louisville Cardinals and Houston Cougars. They did follow the win against Louisville with a blow out of the over-matched Connecticut Huskies and there is every chance they can win this one easily enough too.
The Knights should be able to do what they like on Offense and keep the chains moving throughout this game barring any mistakes they make with the ball in their hands.
If they can avoid those, I would expect the Knights to put up a high 30's in terms of points which will be a tough number for Temple to reach to grab the cover. Temple have been competitive in their last two games, but they could be forced to rely too much on throwing the ball to keep in this game and I can see the Knights having a couple of turnovers that helps them clear the number.
West Virginia Mountaineers @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: This won't be an easy game for the West Virginia Mountaineers, but they have the added motivation to try and earn Bowl eligibility by winning their last 2 games and that may give them the edge in this one.
I expect the Mountaineers to score plenty of points, but the Defense is not one you can trust fully to slow down even an Offense that has struggled as much as the one Kansas has. West Virginia also need to avoid mistakes to help the Jayhawks stay in this one, but if they can do that, I do feel they hold the edge.
Kansas have also lost all 6 Conference games, all by double-digits, but I do think the Mountaineers can win by at least a Touchdown and cover this spread.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Longhorns Pick: This is a fascinating game with plenty of Conference title implications, but it is one that I think the Oklahoma State Cowboys can win.
Mack Brown was under immense pressure at Texas after the start the Longhorns made to the season, but losing Jonathan Gray is going to be tough with the back up Quarter Back Case McCoy already starting.
McCoy has to avoid mistakes against a turnover-creating Defense that Oklahoma State will be sending on to the field and I can see a turnover or two helping the Cowboys come through.
Clint Chelf will have to limit his own mistakes to ensure that happens, but I do like the Cowboys to come through one of the big games of the week.
Miami Hurricanes @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: The Miami Hurricanes are off back to back heavy defeats that has turned what was a promising season a little sour over the last couple of weeks. Now they have to find a way to replace Duke Johnson against a surprisingly tough Duke Blue Devils team that is very capable of causing the upset.
Stephen Morris has been guilty of throwing some picks and Duke can turn the ball over, as shown in their win last week.
However, the Blue Devils have to look after the ball better when they do have it, while they may draw confidence from the tiredness and disappointment Miami's Defense played with last week in the loss to Virginia Tech. Duke are playing with a bunch of confidence and they could make this competitive enough to keep within the spread.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: It would be a surprise if the Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense is shut down completely by the Alabama Defense, but I do think the Crimson Tide are going to do enough to at least prevent sustained drives taking place against them.
On the other hand, I do think Alabama are going to wear down this Defense by pounding them on the ground and opening up the passing lanes for AJ McCarron.
The Crimson Tide have plenty of momentum behind them and have been grinding teams out early and pounding them late. I think the Bulldogs can make this a game early, but they may lose focus with 'easier' potential wins in their last 2 games and they might fall apart as the game goes on and allow Alabama to cover.
Stanford Cardinal @ USC Trojans Pick: Stanford are off a huge win over Oregon which will have their supporters wondering what could have been bar that surprise loss to Utah earlier in the season.
They now have a chance to take out another quality team in the improving USC Trojans, and the team that has won the last 4 games in the series should have a chance to do that.
Stanford run the ball well and stop the run and I just think there is a difference in strength that will be shown in this game. The spread is just over the key number here, but I do think Stanford are going to back up their win over Oregon and get set to repeat as Pac-12 Champions.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 33 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Troy Trojans + 28 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 3 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 23 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 11: 7-2, + 4.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 51% Yield)
Week 10: 6-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 7: 3-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 52-37-2, + 11.93 Units (91 Units Staked, + 13.11% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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Thursday, 14 November 2013
NFL Week 11 Picks 2013 (November 14-18)
It was a better week for the picks in Week 10 than it was in Week 9, but this continues to be an erratic season for most as Vegas has been picking up the wins on a regular basis. This is one of only two weeks left where teams will be having bye weeks and that means the push for the Play Offs will be really generating some pace in the coming weeks.
There are a couple of teams that you have to assume will make the post-season from the starts they have made, but there is plenty of intrigue to keep fans watching as we get into the final seven weeks of the regular season.
Cam Newton is also capable of making some big plays with his arm and he has a couple of Receivers that will certainly help him on that front and they are a team playing with real confidence- the question is whether they can carry that momentum on for the rest of the season.
There are a couple of teams that you have to assume will make the post-season from the starts they have made, but there is plenty of intrigue to keep fans watching as we get into the final seven weeks of the regular season.
Week 10 Thoughts
Miami's off-field issues taking its toll on-field: Ask my friends and they will tell you that I was saying Tampa Bay would beat Miami all week simply because of the off-field issues at the Dolphins which is encompassing this once proud franchise.
The 3-0 start to the season has been long forgotten and even being just a game out of the Wild Card race in the AFC is not enough to keep the fans excited after the whole Jonathan Martin-Ritchie Incognito issue has blown up.
There are no signs that this issue is going to be resolved soon and you could see how it has affected the Dolphins after watching them sleep-walk through the first half of their loss to Tampa Bay. Miami may still have won that game if they could have held on to their 19-15 lead going into the final quarter, but there are no big question marks about a number of personnel at the team.
With Stephen Ross appointing a five man team, including Tony Dungy, Dan Marino and Jason Taylor, to overlook the workings of the locker room culture at Miami, it puts pressure on Jeff Ireland as General Manager and Joe Philbin as Head Coach.
I wouldn't be surprised if both of those men are no longer employed by Miami at the end of the season, while I don't think either Martin or Incognito play for the Dolphins again either. It's a sad state of affairs for a team that had offered their fans so much promise for the new season after a number of sub-par years.
Detroit Lions 2008 can 'celebrate': The Detroit Lions 2008 are the only team in the NFL that has lost all 16 games they have played in a regular season and they are going to keep that record thanks to Jacksonville and Tampa Bay both winning this week.
I really thought the Jaguars could have matched that record, but they surprised Tennessee this week after taking advantage of sloppy play from the home team. After seeing that game though, it does make me 'appreciate' how bad the Lions of 2008 really were.
Detroit Lions 2013 are going places: Those dark days are almost long forgotten by the fans these days, especially after seeing the current crop of Lions take control of the NFC North with a sweep of the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
With Jay Cutler knocked out for an unknown time and Green Bay struggling and down to their third string Quarter Back, the Lions are the favourites to win the North now, although they will be hoping for a little bit more luck to take complete control.
That bit of luck is concerning Aaron Rodgers who has been making some comments about feeling better- Detroit would love for him to miss the Thanksgiving Day game between the teams, where the Lions could potentially open a 2 game lead over the Packers and also move to 4-1 within the Division with only one more game against Minnesota to come.
A one game lead with seven weeks left is no total position of strength, but Detroit will be very happy with the position they find themselves in.
Carolina Panthers the darkest of dark horses: In recent weeks, the Carolina Panthers have really picked up their game which has seen them win 5 games in a row... I personally wasn't convinced about them until this weekend when they beat the San Francisco 49ers on the road, even if the injury to Vernon Davis changed the momentum of that game.
Carolina can run the ball effectively and have a Defense that doesn't give up much either through the air or on the ground... Those are a couple of attributes that will work very well come January and the Play Offs.
Cam Newton is also capable of making some big plays with his arm and he has a couple of Receivers that will certainly help him on that front and they are a team playing with real confidence- the question is whether they can carry that momentum on for the rest of the season.
I thought a Wild Card place is within their grasp, but the NFC South is still very much up for grabs too as the Panthers trail New Orleans by one game. They meet the Saints twice down the stretch and splitting those games 1-1 with the rest of the schedule that the two teams have to face would give the Panthers the edge to win the Division as far as I am concerned and possibly even getting a bye into the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.
Carolina may just be the biggest challenger to Seattle in the NFC this season.
Top Ten
1) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): A big test for the Chiefs in the next few weeks as they face Denver twice in games that could decide home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.
2) Seattle Seahawks (9-1): The imminent return of Percy Harvin makes them more dangerous on Offense, although the 'Legion of Boom' is a little banged up.
3) Denver Broncos (8-1): Peyton Manning escaped serious injury on Sunday, but both ankles are very weak and he is one hit away from missing time.
4) New Orleans Saints (7-2): Battered the Cowboys and tough to beat in the Superdome.
5) New England Patriots (7-2): Coming off a bye and face a big test in Carolina who are playing as good as anybody right now.
6) Carolina Panthers (6-3): Maybe playing the best football in the NFL.
7) Detroit Lions (6-3): In control of the NFC North after sweeping the Bears.
8) San Francisco 49ers (6-3): Losing Vernon Davis hurt Colin Kaepernick badly on Sunday, while losing ground in the NFC West may mean a Wild Card at best for the reigning NFC Champions.
9) Indianapolis Colts (6-3): That was a real disappointing performance from the Colts on Sunday, but they have control of the AFC South and can really put some distance between themselves and their chasing pack on Thursday Night Football.
10) Arizona Cardinals (5-4): This is a team with momentum on their side and a real chance to get into the Wild Card mix in the coming weeks.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8): They did it!! They won a game, and Jacksonville will not go winless... Still won't be moving them out of the this position though because...
31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8): ... the only other winless team going into Week 10 also won with Tampa Bay knocking off Miami.
30) Houston Texans (2-7): It has been a horrific season for the Texans, but they will have some good news this week with the likely return of Gary Kubiak to the sidelines.
29) Minnesota Vikings (2-7): Still not sure how Minnesota beat Washington despite getting outgained, turning the ball over more times and losing time of possession?
28) Oakland Raiders (3-6): The Raiders are not playing well the last two weeks and slip into the bottom five of my rankings again.
Week 11 Picks
It was an up and down week in Week 10, but I came out of it the other side with a slight profit on the week to bring the season totals back up to double digits. The last two weeks haven't been the best, but the season remains in a good place and hopefully that can be built upon the rest of the way.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: One of the results really surprised me last weekend, but the other was less of a big issue as far as I was concerned. I didn't see Tennessee's loss to Jacksonville coming in any way, although they decided to destroy their own chances with a number of turnovers in their own half and a fumble at the end of the game that was returned for a Touchdown.
On the other hand, it was easy to guess that Indianapolis would perhaps overlook the Rams, especially as a big favourite with this more important game to come.
With that in mind, I expect a much better effort from the Colts this week as they may just have been focusing on the game that could almost certainly give them the AFC South and a place in the Play Offs for the second year in a row with Andrew Luck at Quarter Back.
I expect Luck is going to recover from the worst game of his NFL career, but he has to start better to give the Colts a chance. The last two games have seen Indianapolis in a big hole by half time as they came off their bye, which is a real surprise, but the loss of Reggie Wayne is obviously big as is the lack of running from Trent Richardson.
This could be the week that Richardson at least gets going somewhat, while I also trust Luck to look after the ball a lot better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick can be a frustrating Quarter Back to watch as he can seem to take teams up and down the field, but will then throw a critical mistake that will cost his team the chance of winning. Last week it was his fumble that secured the loss to the Jaguars and I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a mistake that lets the Colts come through.
The line looks awfully trappy, but I have to back the Colts at under the key number of 3 to win this game on the road and open up a big lead in the AFC South.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams seem to mirror one another on both sides of the ball, but I do think the New York Jets are better at stopping the run and I think Geno Smith can make more plays than EJ Manuel in the battle of the rookies.
I just feel that Rex Ryan can set up his Defense in a way to bamboozle the rookie at Quarter Back and he would have been preparing for this game for two weeks. That is a lot of time to get a good game plan in place and I expect Ryan to have taken advantage of that.
The Jets have dominated the recent games in the series against Buffalo, while the Bills possibly missing Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods makes it harder for them to move the chains. If New York shut down the run game as they have for much of the season, it is hard to see the Bills sustain enough drives to win and I like the Jets to come off their bye and move into a strong position for the AFC Wild Card race and also stay within touching distance of the New England Patriots for the East title.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I know exactly how well Nick Foles has been playing as a Fantasy Football owner of his, but that shouldn't fool you into thinking he has been playing lights out football. He has been helped a lot by the last two Defenses he has faced, although Washington may become the latest to fail to stop him having a big game.
The Redskins can get pressure up front, and that will be an issue with Jason Peters out of the Offensive Line, but the Secondary has been burned and couldn't stop Christian Ponder a week ago despite having a 13 point lead to defend.
LeSean McCoy should also have a decent game this week, but Philadelphia have to also play against a long home losing run and Washington have been improving as the season has gone on. I still don't know how they blew their game at Minnesota last week which would have had them in the mix in the NFC East, but I still think Robert Griffin III can have enough success in this one to make it competitive.
As bad as Washington have played against the pass, Philadelphia have been worse and have only looked better the last two weeks because of the Quarter Backs they have played. RG3 should have more success especially if they can establish Alfred Morris too and this looks like too many points to be giving up for Philadelphia in what could be a high-scoring game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I can't say that I feel that happy about backing a team that is having to travel across the country for an early kick off, but the Arizona Cardinals should become the latest team to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by double digits unless lightning strikes twice.
I was as surprised as most that the Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans last week, but they did catch lightning in a bottle in that game by creating a number of turnovers in the Tennessee half of the field that gave them short fields to work with.
The fact that the Jaguars were outgained by 150 yards doesn't bode well for them against a Defense that is playing at a decent level and is very capable of turning the ball over themselves. I can see Arizona finding a Defensive score in this game, whether it is an Interception or a fumble returned for a Touchdown and I do think Arizona are going to win this game.
Carson Palmer has to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his game this season, but he should have a cleaner pocket to work with and is a capable Quarter Back if given time to break down Defenses. It was an emotional win for Jacksonville last week and it is entirely possible they overlook a non-Conference opponent with another Divisional game on deck.
It is a lot of points, perhaps too much to be asking Arizona to surpass, but Jacksonville's 8 defeats have come by double digits and this one should follow suit.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It has been a terrible time for the Miami Dolphins and having a short week to prepare for this game is not ideal, but they could be in a good spot against a Chargers team that is travelling across the country and is in between games against Denver and Kansas City.
It is an important game for San Diego, especially when it comes to the Wild Card race in the AFC, but coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos is going to be tough to recover from.
Miami need to get the running game going if they are going to win this one after totalling a huge TWO yards against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. San Diego's Defense has struggled against the run and pass this season so I do expect a bounce back game from Lamar Miller and Ryan Tannehill.
The big question will be if Miami can stop San Diego sustaining drives- if Mike James hadn't been injured on Monday, he was set to have a big game running the ball and Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews could pick up where he had seemingly looked like going.
Philip Rivers has been methodical in creating long, scoring drives for the Chargers, but the Dolphins are in a spot to get back into the Play Off discussion here.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Good teams going into their bye weeks usually come out with a big performance and Seattle certainly are capable of doing the same as they look to maintain their position as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
Returning pieces to the Offense make them an even more dangerous team going forward and they are getting healthier at the right time. Percy Harvin will want to put in a big performance against his old team and he is a threat on kick returns, punt returns and in the Offense, and I would expect him to have some real chances against a Secondary that has struggled.
The Vikings will keep this interesting if they can keep the score close as Adrian Peterson should have the ability to pound the ball on the ground with success. However, the Quarter Back, whoever it may be, will be under a lot of pressure if he is forced to throw to stay in the game and that could lead to mistakes and Seattle pulling away.
Seattle laid an egg the last time they were big home favourites against Tampa Bay, but I like them to win this one big.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I would definitely keep an eye on the active list and make sure Aaron Rodgers is definitely not back this week, but he has been getting closer to returning for Green Bay and I would not be surprised if he is ready to go next week.
This is an important game for both teams, but the edge at Quarter Back goes to Eli Manning and I think the Giants have a lot of momentum behind them as they get ready to take on the Dallas Cowboys next week in a huge Divisional game.
That game would lose some of it's importance for New York if they fail to win this one and I don't think they fall here. The Green Bay Packers Secondary made big mistakes last week and those can haunt a team, especially without their Quarter Back who is capable of putting a lot of points on the board.
At the start of the week, I would have said the Giants are laying too many points, but the spread as come down to a reasonable level and I expect New York to find a way to roll.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: I know the Kansas City Chiefs are the public underdogs this week, but I can't help think Peyton Manning and this Offense is going to score too many points for them to keep up in this one.
Andy Reid had been unbeaten coming off a bye as Head Coach before last season, but he usually gets a good gameplan in place when he has time to prepare, while there are also some doubts about Manning's health.
The Offensive Line is going to have to protect Manning better than they have the last few games, particularly against this fierce pass rush, but I still expect the Quarter Back to utilise the weapons he has at his disposal. My question then becomes can Kansas City do something on Offense where they can keep up with the scoring that the Broncos certainly can do?
As well as the Defense has played, Kansas City have failed to score more than 24 points the last four games and the Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Alex Smith. Relying on long drives that result in Field Goals won't cut it in this one and I can see the Broncos making it very difficult for the Chiefs to come back from a large deficit and I like Denver to go on and win this one and cover.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Jets - 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 8 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 12 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: One of the results really surprised me last weekend, but the other was less of a big issue as far as I was concerned. I didn't see Tennessee's loss to Jacksonville coming in any way, although they decided to destroy their own chances with a number of turnovers in their own half and a fumble at the end of the game that was returned for a Touchdown.
On the other hand, it was easy to guess that Indianapolis would perhaps overlook the Rams, especially as a big favourite with this more important game to come.
With that in mind, I expect a much better effort from the Colts this week as they may just have been focusing on the game that could almost certainly give them the AFC South and a place in the Play Offs for the second year in a row with Andrew Luck at Quarter Back.
I expect Luck is going to recover from the worst game of his NFL career, but he has to start better to give the Colts a chance. The last two games have seen Indianapolis in a big hole by half time as they came off their bye, which is a real surprise, but the loss of Reggie Wayne is obviously big as is the lack of running from Trent Richardson.
This could be the week that Richardson at least gets going somewhat, while I also trust Luck to look after the ball a lot better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick can be a frustrating Quarter Back to watch as he can seem to take teams up and down the field, but will then throw a critical mistake that will cost his team the chance of winning. Last week it was his fumble that secured the loss to the Jaguars and I wouldn't be surprised if he makes a mistake that lets the Colts come through.
The line looks awfully trappy, but I have to back the Colts at under the key number of 3 to win this game on the road and open up a big lead in the AFC South.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: These two teams seem to mirror one another on both sides of the ball, but I do think the New York Jets are better at stopping the run and I think Geno Smith can make more plays than EJ Manuel in the battle of the rookies.
I just feel that Rex Ryan can set up his Defense in a way to bamboozle the rookie at Quarter Back and he would have been preparing for this game for two weeks. That is a lot of time to get a good game plan in place and I expect Ryan to have taken advantage of that.
The Jets have dominated the recent games in the series against Buffalo, while the Bills possibly missing Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods makes it harder for them to move the chains. If New York shut down the run game as they have for much of the season, it is hard to see the Bills sustain enough drives to win and I like the Jets to come off their bye and move into a strong position for the AFC Wild Card race and also stay within touching distance of the New England Patriots for the East title.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I know exactly how well Nick Foles has been playing as a Fantasy Football owner of his, but that shouldn't fool you into thinking he has been playing lights out football. He has been helped a lot by the last two Defenses he has faced, although Washington may become the latest to fail to stop him having a big game.
The Redskins can get pressure up front, and that will be an issue with Jason Peters out of the Offensive Line, but the Secondary has been burned and couldn't stop Christian Ponder a week ago despite having a 13 point lead to defend.
LeSean McCoy should also have a decent game this week, but Philadelphia have to also play against a long home losing run and Washington have been improving as the season has gone on. I still don't know how they blew their game at Minnesota last week which would have had them in the mix in the NFC East, but I still think Robert Griffin III can have enough success in this one to make it competitive.
As bad as Washington have played against the pass, Philadelphia have been worse and have only looked better the last two weeks because of the Quarter Backs they have played. RG3 should have more success especially if they can establish Alfred Morris too and this looks like too many points to be giving up for Philadelphia in what could be a high-scoring game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I can't say that I feel that happy about backing a team that is having to travel across the country for an early kick off, but the Arizona Cardinals should become the latest team to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by double digits unless lightning strikes twice.
I was as surprised as most that the Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans last week, but they did catch lightning in a bottle in that game by creating a number of turnovers in the Tennessee half of the field that gave them short fields to work with.
The fact that the Jaguars were outgained by 150 yards doesn't bode well for them against a Defense that is playing at a decent level and is very capable of turning the ball over themselves. I can see Arizona finding a Defensive score in this game, whether it is an Interception or a fumble returned for a Touchdown and I do think Arizona are going to win this game.
Carson Palmer has to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his game this season, but he should have a cleaner pocket to work with and is a capable Quarter Back if given time to break down Defenses. It was an emotional win for Jacksonville last week and it is entirely possible they overlook a non-Conference opponent with another Divisional game on deck.
It is a lot of points, perhaps too much to be asking Arizona to surpass, but Jacksonville's 8 defeats have come by double digits and this one should follow suit.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It has been a terrible time for the Miami Dolphins and having a short week to prepare for this game is not ideal, but they could be in a good spot against a Chargers team that is travelling across the country and is in between games against Denver and Kansas City.
It is an important game for San Diego, especially when it comes to the Wild Card race in the AFC, but coming off an emotional loss against the Broncos is going to be tough to recover from.
Miami need to get the running game going if they are going to win this one after totalling a huge TWO yards against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. San Diego's Defense has struggled against the run and pass this season so I do expect a bounce back game from Lamar Miller and Ryan Tannehill.
The big question will be if Miami can stop San Diego sustaining drives- if Mike James hadn't been injured on Monday, he was set to have a big game running the ball and Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews could pick up where he had seemingly looked like going.
Philip Rivers has been methodical in creating long, scoring drives for the Chargers, but the Dolphins are in a spot to get back into the Play Off discussion here.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Good teams going into their bye weeks usually come out with a big performance and Seattle certainly are capable of doing the same as they look to maintain their position as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.
Returning pieces to the Offense make them an even more dangerous team going forward and they are getting healthier at the right time. Percy Harvin will want to put in a big performance against his old team and he is a threat on kick returns, punt returns and in the Offense, and I would expect him to have some real chances against a Secondary that has struggled.
The Vikings will keep this interesting if they can keep the score close as Adrian Peterson should have the ability to pound the ball on the ground with success. However, the Quarter Back, whoever it may be, will be under a lot of pressure if he is forced to throw to stay in the game and that could lead to mistakes and Seattle pulling away.
Seattle laid an egg the last time they were big home favourites against Tampa Bay, but I like them to win this one big.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I would definitely keep an eye on the active list and make sure Aaron Rodgers is definitely not back this week, but he has been getting closer to returning for Green Bay and I would not be surprised if he is ready to go next week.
This is an important game for both teams, but the edge at Quarter Back goes to Eli Manning and I think the Giants have a lot of momentum behind them as they get ready to take on the Dallas Cowboys next week in a huge Divisional game.
That game would lose some of it's importance for New York if they fail to win this one and I don't think they fall here. The Green Bay Packers Secondary made big mistakes last week and those can haunt a team, especially without their Quarter Back who is capable of putting a lot of points on the board.
At the start of the week, I would have said the Giants are laying too many points, but the spread as come down to a reasonable level and I expect New York to find a way to roll.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: I know the Kansas City Chiefs are the public underdogs this week, but I can't help think Peyton Manning and this Offense is going to score too many points for them to keep up in this one.
Andy Reid had been unbeaten coming off a bye as Head Coach before last season, but he usually gets a good gameplan in place when he has time to prepare, while there are also some doubts about Manning's health.
The Offensive Line is going to have to protect Manning better than they have the last few games, particularly against this fierce pass rush, but I still expect the Quarter Back to utilise the weapons he has at his disposal. My question then becomes can Kansas City do something on Offense where they can keep up with the scoring that the Broncos certainly can do?
As well as the Defense has played, Kansas City have failed to score more than 24 points the last four games and the Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Alex Smith. Relying on long drives that result in Field Goals won't cut it in this one and I can see the Broncos making it very difficult for the Chiefs to come back from a large deficit and I like Denver to go on and win this one and cover.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Jets - 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 8 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 12 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 45-37-1, + 10.29 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
Tuesday, 12 November 2013
NBA Picks November 2013
There are times during the regular season, which is long enough, when you have to take a step back and take stock of the picks made and figure out what has gone wrong, especially when going on a poor run. That was the situation for me at the end of October as the first four picks went down, but two of those were down to ridiculous late efforts and collapses from teams and I decided to let the season settle down somewhat.
Indiana failed to cover my first pick by allowing a three pointer with time running out, while the Knicks somehow blew a huge 25 point lead against Milwaukee and won by 7 points when they were being asked to cover 8... In both games, the losing team decided not to foul down the stretch and send Indiana/New York to the foul line either so they were a couple of bad breaks.
To be honest, the first week of November was filled with erratic games too and so I took a watching brief, but like I said above, the hope is that the season will settle down now and teams can get on with the tough months ahead.
Teams have also had surprising starts with Miami already having 3 losses and the New York Knicks starting off 2-4. The Western Conference looks the more competitive of the two, while the LA Lakers will be desperately hoping that Kobe Bryant can return in the near future to spark what could be a terrible season for the franchise.
November 12th
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: I wouldn't at all be surprised if both of these teams combined for over 200 points in this game as both have certainly been better in the opposition half of the court than they have when it comes to Defensive unity.
Of the two, Dallas at least have something to build on when it comes to the Defensive side of the court after their performance against Milwaukee. They are also facing a team that might be a little down after blowing a definite win on Sunday night at Oklahoma City and I like Dallas to cover.
November 13th
Charlotte Bobcats @ Boston Celtics Pick: The momentum is all with Boston heading into this game and I do think they are capable of making it 5 in a row against a Charlotte team that is still trying to find their identity on Offense.
Boston have found a good formula with Avery Bradley and Jordan Crawford in the back-court and I like the Celtics to cover.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The New York Knicks have struggled since Tyson Chandler was injured and also have a big game on national television tomorrow so they look in a bad spot here.
The fact that are playing a team with a front-court as big as Atlanta's won't help the Knicks and second chances to score should be dominated by the Hawks. I expect them to dominate the boards and I think the Hawks cover in this one.
November 14th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Oklahoma City haven't shown much Defense in their last three games, and that could be exposed by the Warriors who have been blowing teams out in front of their own fans.
The Thunder will need some scoring from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to make this a game and we could see the total points surpassed.
November 15th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pick: It is never easy facing Denver in the altitude of Colorado, but the Timberwolves are scoring a lot of points and are playing very well over the last week.
The spread just looks too low here and I think Minnesota win and cover.
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz Pick: San Antonio have been playing some of the best basketball in the Western Conference and they have won 3 in a row by wide margins.
They should be able to roll against the struggling Utah Jazz including 3 blow outs in a row before their win over New Orleans. I expect the Spurs can go into their extended break after this game with continued momentum behind them.
November 19th
It has summed up the early season that I would pick Atlanta to beat the Knicks and they play like crap and lose, but two days later blow out the same team on the road. More late backdoor covers haven't helped my early mood when it comes to the NBA so far this season.
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat have begun to turn up the, errr, Heat on the Defensive side of the court and LeBron James is playing at a monster level. I guess he doesn't want to talk about his future by giving the media something else to write about and I like Miami to win and cover if they maintain the Defensive effort of recent games.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards Pick: About the only time Minnesota have failed to cover in recent games was when I picked them, but hopefully that hex is broken on Tuesday night. The Timberwolves have been wiping teams out with an Offensive output that is hard to match, although I hope they remain focused with a big game against the LA Clippers tomorrow night.
November 20th
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks have been playing really badly and they need a big improvement to match the Indiana Pacers in this one. Indiana have had a few days to recover from the loss to the Bulls and will want to put on a bigger effort in this one and I like them to win this one and cover.
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Pick: The NBA has had some strange results in the opening month of the season, including a number of teams blowing huge leads. However, the Miami Heat have been picking up the form that we have come to know of them and I think they can cover again tonight.
I have respect for Orlando in the way this young team gives their all in every game, but the Heat are rolling at the moment.
November 22nd
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The New Orleans Pelicans have a big game in a few days time at the San Antonio Spurs, but have been scoring a lot of points since Ryan Anderson returned to health. They should be too strong for Cleveland who are on a short road trip at two Western Conference teams and I like them to cover the points.
November 25th
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz Pick: It was confirmed that Derrick Rose is going to miss the rest of the season and while they play a team that completely sucks in Utah, the Chicago Bulls might not be ready to win a game as favourite here. It's the last game in the West before a couple of road games against Eastern Conference teams and I'll take the points with Utah.
New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: One of the most disappointing teams in the first month of the season are the New York Knicks and I have to keep fading a team that is still missing the likes of Raymond Felton and Tyson Chandler.
Portland will be missing Mo Williams through suspension, but this is a team on a roll and I would be surprised if they don't win this one handily.
November 26th
LA Lakers @ Washington Wizards Pick: The LA Lakers have a mini-road trip to the East coast through Thanksgiving, which opens up with this game in Washington. The Wizards have been playing well, but are struggling Defensively and that is an area where the Lakers can at least make this competitive so I will take the points.
November 27th
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The loss of Derrick Rose is huge for this Chicago team that also has lost the depth that made them competitive last season. They won't tank the season, but they may need the Thanksgiving break between games to make the adjustments to the Offense without their star Point Guard.
With Detroit finally winning back to back games, the Pistons may have the confidence to dominate the boards and win this game while covering the spread.
New York Knicks @ LA Clippers Pick: Injuries are hurting New York and their Offense has struggled for consistency which doesn't bode well for them against a team like the Clippers that can score a lot of points. Usually I would steer clear of such a big spread, but New York are struggling badly from beyond the three point range and I think the Clippers crush them in a track meet.
MY PICKS: 12/11 Dallas Mavericks - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
13/11 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/11 Atlanta Hawks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/11 Golden State Warriors-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 208 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/11 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/11 San Antonio Spurs - 10 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/11 Miami Heat - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/11 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/11 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/11 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/11 New Orleans Pelicans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/11 Utah Jazz + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/11 Portland Trail Blazers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/11 LA Lakers + 5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/11 Detroit Pistons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/11 LA Clippers - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
November 2013 Update: 8-7-1, + 0.82 Units
October 2013 Final: 0-4, - 4 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Indiana failed to cover my first pick by allowing a three pointer with time running out, while the Knicks somehow blew a huge 25 point lead against Milwaukee and won by 7 points when they were being asked to cover 8... In both games, the losing team decided not to foul down the stretch and send Indiana/New York to the foul line either so they were a couple of bad breaks.
To be honest, the first week of November was filled with erratic games too and so I took a watching brief, but like I said above, the hope is that the season will settle down now and teams can get on with the tough months ahead.
Teams have also had surprising starts with Miami already having 3 losses and the New York Knicks starting off 2-4. The Western Conference looks the more competitive of the two, while the LA Lakers will be desperately hoping that Kobe Bryant can return in the near future to spark what could be a terrible season for the franchise.
November 12th
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: I wouldn't at all be surprised if both of these teams combined for over 200 points in this game as both have certainly been better in the opposition half of the court than they have when it comes to Defensive unity.
Of the two, Dallas at least have something to build on when it comes to the Defensive side of the court after their performance against Milwaukee. They are also facing a team that might be a little down after blowing a definite win on Sunday night at Oklahoma City and I like Dallas to cover.
November 13th
Charlotte Bobcats @ Boston Celtics Pick: The momentum is all with Boston heading into this game and I do think they are capable of making it 5 in a row against a Charlotte team that is still trying to find their identity on Offense.
Boston have found a good formula with Avery Bradley and Jordan Crawford in the back-court and I like the Celtics to cover.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The New York Knicks have struggled since Tyson Chandler was injured and also have a big game on national television tomorrow so they look in a bad spot here.
The fact that are playing a team with a front-court as big as Atlanta's won't help the Knicks and second chances to score should be dominated by the Hawks. I expect them to dominate the boards and I think the Hawks cover in this one.
November 14th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Oklahoma City haven't shown much Defense in their last three games, and that could be exposed by the Warriors who have been blowing teams out in front of their own fans.
The Thunder will need some scoring from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to make this a game and we could see the total points surpassed.
November 15th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Pick: It is never easy facing Denver in the altitude of Colorado, but the Timberwolves are scoring a lot of points and are playing very well over the last week.
The spread just looks too low here and I think Minnesota win and cover.
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz Pick: San Antonio have been playing some of the best basketball in the Western Conference and they have won 3 in a row by wide margins.
They should be able to roll against the struggling Utah Jazz including 3 blow outs in a row before their win over New Orleans. I expect the Spurs can go into their extended break after this game with continued momentum behind them.
November 19th
It has summed up the early season that I would pick Atlanta to beat the Knicks and they play like crap and lose, but two days later blow out the same team on the road. More late backdoor covers haven't helped my early mood when it comes to the NBA so far this season.
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat have begun to turn up the, errr, Heat on the Defensive side of the court and LeBron James is playing at a monster level. I guess he doesn't want to talk about his future by giving the media something else to write about and I like Miami to win and cover if they maintain the Defensive effort of recent games.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards Pick: About the only time Minnesota have failed to cover in recent games was when I picked them, but hopefully that hex is broken on Tuesday night. The Timberwolves have been wiping teams out with an Offensive output that is hard to match, although I hope they remain focused with a big game against the LA Clippers tomorrow night.
November 20th
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks have been playing really badly and they need a big improvement to match the Indiana Pacers in this one. Indiana have had a few days to recover from the loss to the Bulls and will want to put on a bigger effort in this one and I like them to win this one and cover.
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Pick: The NBA has had some strange results in the opening month of the season, including a number of teams blowing huge leads. However, the Miami Heat have been picking up the form that we have come to know of them and I think they can cover again tonight.
I have respect for Orlando in the way this young team gives their all in every game, but the Heat are rolling at the moment.
November 22nd
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The New Orleans Pelicans have a big game in a few days time at the San Antonio Spurs, but have been scoring a lot of points since Ryan Anderson returned to health. They should be too strong for Cleveland who are on a short road trip at two Western Conference teams and I like them to cover the points.
November 25th
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz Pick: It was confirmed that Derrick Rose is going to miss the rest of the season and while they play a team that completely sucks in Utah, the Chicago Bulls might not be ready to win a game as favourite here. It's the last game in the West before a couple of road games against Eastern Conference teams and I'll take the points with Utah.
New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: One of the most disappointing teams in the first month of the season are the New York Knicks and I have to keep fading a team that is still missing the likes of Raymond Felton and Tyson Chandler.
Portland will be missing Mo Williams through suspension, but this is a team on a roll and I would be surprised if they don't win this one handily.
November 26th
LA Lakers @ Washington Wizards Pick: The LA Lakers have a mini-road trip to the East coast through Thanksgiving, which opens up with this game in Washington. The Wizards have been playing well, but are struggling Defensively and that is an area where the Lakers can at least make this competitive so I will take the points.
November 27th
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The loss of Derrick Rose is huge for this Chicago team that also has lost the depth that made them competitive last season. They won't tank the season, but they may need the Thanksgiving break between games to make the adjustments to the Offense without their star Point Guard.
With Detroit finally winning back to back games, the Pistons may have the confidence to dominate the boards and win this game while covering the spread.
New York Knicks @ LA Clippers Pick: Injuries are hurting New York and their Offense has struggled for consistency which doesn't bode well for them against a team like the Clippers that can score a lot of points. Usually I would steer clear of such a big spread, but New York are struggling badly from beyond the three point range and I think the Clippers crush them in a track meet.
MY PICKS: 12/11 Dallas Mavericks - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
13/11 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/11 Atlanta Hawks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/11 Golden State Warriors-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 208 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/11 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/11 San Antonio Spurs - 10 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/11 Miami Heat - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/11 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/11 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/11 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/11 New Orleans Pelicans - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/11 Utah Jazz + 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/11 Portland Trail Blazers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/11 LA Lakers + 5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/11 Detroit Pistons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/11 LA Clippers - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
November 2013 Update: 8-7-1, + 0.82 Units
October 2013 Final: 0-4, - 4 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Monday, 11 November 2013
World Tour Finals- Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic Pick 2013 (November 11th)
So this is it... The final tournament of the season, not including the Davis Cup, is going to be concluded on Monday night and it is a fitting end to the 2013 campaign that the two best players in the world can continue their rivalry.
I know a lot of people are big Andy Murray fans, but Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are going to be the leading contenders to sweep the Grand Slam titles on offer going into 2014, as long as both can steer clear of injury, and this match could already be seen as laying down a marker for the coming season.
The off-season in tennis is a little under two months, but I don't think these two will be playing too many matches ahead of the first Grand Slam of 2014 at the Australian Open so the winner of this match will feel they have an edge going into that tournament. Melbourne Park has been Djokovic's best Grand Slam to date and he will likely go off as the favourite to win that event, but a win for Nadal in this Final may close that gap and have the Spaniard as the man to beat.
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Rafael Nadal: The indoor hard courts are clearly not the favourite surface of Rafael Nadal, but he has made it through to the Final here in London for a second time and also has split two previous matches against Novak Djokovic at the event in the O2 Arena.
However, the edge has to be given to Djokovic in this match as he is the defending Champion here and has ended the season on a brilliant run of form with the real intention of setting out his stall for the 2014 season that will begin in a couple of months time.
It is Nadal that has been dominating this head to head over the last 18 months, winning 6 of 7 including the Final of the French Open 2012, the Semi Final at the same event in June and also the US Open Final back in September. This has all come about after losing 7 straight matches to Djokovic, but the Serb did turn the tables with a routine straight sets win over Nadal at the Shanghai Masters.
Both have played good tennis so far this week and I do anticipate this being a good Final to watch, but I think the court does give Djokovic the edge... I have noticed that Nadal's forehand has not reared up as much as normal and that shouldn't be a big issue for Djokovic, while I also feel the latter has been serving a little more effectively.
Djokovic's big edge may come from the second serve as I expect him to play similar to yesterday and really try and attack that serve and keep Nadal under pressure. With the way he has been returning, I would expect Djokovic to have success with that tactic and I feel he can get a measure of revenge for a couple of really big losses against Nadal earlier this season.
It will be close and it will be tense, but Djokovic should come through 63, 76 in my opinion, although there is a chance that Nadal can push this into three sets.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 7-7, + 7.16 Units (22 Units Staked, + 32.55% Yield)
I know a lot of people are big Andy Murray fans, but Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are going to be the leading contenders to sweep the Grand Slam titles on offer going into 2014, as long as both can steer clear of injury, and this match could already be seen as laying down a marker for the coming season.
The off-season in tennis is a little under two months, but I don't think these two will be playing too many matches ahead of the first Grand Slam of 2014 at the Australian Open so the winner of this match will feel they have an edge going into that tournament. Melbourne Park has been Djokovic's best Grand Slam to date and he will likely go off as the favourite to win that event, but a win for Nadal in this Final may close that gap and have the Spaniard as the man to beat.
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Rafael Nadal: The indoor hard courts are clearly not the favourite surface of Rafael Nadal, but he has made it through to the Final here in London for a second time and also has split two previous matches against Novak Djokovic at the event in the O2 Arena.
However, the edge has to be given to Djokovic in this match as he is the defending Champion here and has ended the season on a brilliant run of form with the real intention of setting out his stall for the 2014 season that will begin in a couple of months time.
It is Nadal that has been dominating this head to head over the last 18 months, winning 6 of 7 including the Final of the French Open 2012, the Semi Final at the same event in June and also the US Open Final back in September. This has all come about after losing 7 straight matches to Djokovic, but the Serb did turn the tables with a routine straight sets win over Nadal at the Shanghai Masters.
Both have played good tennis so far this week and I do anticipate this being a good Final to watch, but I think the court does give Djokovic the edge... I have noticed that Nadal's forehand has not reared up as much as normal and that shouldn't be a big issue for Djokovic, while I also feel the latter has been serving a little more effectively.
Djokovic's big edge may come from the second serve as I expect him to play similar to yesterday and really try and attack that serve and keep Nadal under pressure. With the way he has been returning, I would expect Djokovic to have success with that tactic and I feel he can get a measure of revenge for a couple of really big losses against Nadal earlier this season.
It will be close and it will be tense, but Djokovic should come through 63, 76 in my opinion, although there is a chance that Nadal can push this into three sets.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 7-7, + 7.16 Units (22 Units Staked, + 32.55% Yield)
Sunday, 10 November 2013
World Tour Finals Semi Final Picks 2013 (November 10th)
Those who have tickets for the early session on Sunday afternoon will be licking their lips at the prospect of seeing two icons of tennis playing for the chance to get to the Final on Monday evening.
The other Semi Final is between two players who had a classic match in Australia to really get the season going so fans may be treated to another quality match later.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v Roger Federer: Despite holding a healthy advantage in the head to head, Rafael Nadal does have a couple of demons to exorcise in this match as he has lost all 4 previous matches against Roger Federer that have been played at the World Tour Finals.
That includes 2 losses in London and the indoor hard courts certainly make this a closer match than I would expect an outdoor hard court or most outdoor surfaces would. On most I would favour Nadal over Federer these days, but these courts do make you wonder.
Nadal himself hasn't looked up to the speed of the rest of the season so far this week and it could be that the long year has caught up with him, especially now he has secured the World Number 1 Ranking. His feeling that the Tour Finals should perhaps be played on a different surface may have given us an insight that he doesn't feel he can produce his best tennis on the indoor hard courts and I think that gives Federer a chance.
A chance mind, because Federer hasn't played his best tennis this week either, although he would have been given a confidence boost in the manner he beat Juan Martin Del Potro yesterday after looking down and out in all three sets. However, his match up against Nadal isn't the best and I have a feeling that the Spaniard is going to come through, albeit after three sets.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: Novak Djokovic admitted that he couldn't get the balance right in his win last night against Richard Gasquet as he couldn't quite motivate himself with the Semi Final in mind, and I do expect a better response from him in this one.
I have been impressed with Stanislas Wawrinka's season, but he was looking tight in his win over David Ferrer and would have been beaten if the Spaniard had a little more gas left in the tank.
The Australian Open clash between these two was memorable, but the US Open match was another very good one, although it was Stan who didn't have a lot left in that match as he wilted in the final two sets of a five set match.
If Wawrinka serves well, this could be a very close match, but I think Djokovic is going to come out firing after the performance yesterday and I think he will do enough to win this one 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-6, + 5.96 Units (19 Units Staked, + 31.37% Yield)
The other Semi Final is between two players who had a classic match in Australia to really get the season going so fans may be treated to another quality match later.
Rafael Nadal win 2-1 v Roger Federer: Despite holding a healthy advantage in the head to head, Rafael Nadal does have a couple of demons to exorcise in this match as he has lost all 4 previous matches against Roger Federer that have been played at the World Tour Finals.
That includes 2 losses in London and the indoor hard courts certainly make this a closer match than I would expect an outdoor hard court or most outdoor surfaces would. On most I would favour Nadal over Federer these days, but these courts do make you wonder.
Nadal himself hasn't looked up to the speed of the rest of the season so far this week and it could be that the long year has caught up with him, especially now he has secured the World Number 1 Ranking. His feeling that the Tour Finals should perhaps be played on a different surface may have given us an insight that he doesn't feel he can produce his best tennis on the indoor hard courts and I think that gives Federer a chance.
A chance mind, because Federer hasn't played his best tennis this week either, although he would have been given a confidence boost in the manner he beat Juan Martin Del Potro yesterday after looking down and out in all three sets. However, his match up against Nadal isn't the best and I have a feeling that the Spaniard is going to come through, albeit after three sets.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: Novak Djokovic admitted that he couldn't get the balance right in his win last night against Richard Gasquet as he couldn't quite motivate himself with the Semi Final in mind, and I do expect a better response from him in this one.
I have been impressed with Stanislas Wawrinka's season, but he was looking tight in his win over David Ferrer and would have been beaten if the Spaniard had a little more gas left in the tank.
The Australian Open clash between these two was memorable, but the US Open match was another very good one, although it was Stan who didn't have a lot left in that match as he wilted in the final two sets of a five set match.
If Wawrinka serves well, this could be a very close match, but I think Djokovic is going to come out firing after the performance yesterday and I think he will do enough to win this one 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal win 2-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 6-6, + 5.96 Units (19 Units Staked, + 31.37% Yield)
Saturday, 9 November 2013
College Football Week 11 Picks 2013 (November 9)
Well, well, well, that has really put the cat amongst the pigeons as Stanford continued their recent dominance of Oregon and knocked off the unbeaten Ducks on Thursday night. With Oregon gone from the ranks of the unbeaten, Alabama and Florida State are set to meet in the National Championship game with neither needing style points to be ranked 1 and 2 in the nation.
But in the famous words of Lee Corso, 'not so fast my friends': the Baylor Bears are quietly not just beating teams, but blowing them out and they made a big statement by crushing the Oklahoma Sooners on Thursday night to remain unbeaten and also in pole position to win the Big 12 Conference.
Ohio State will need to win games big the rest of the season if they are to get in the mix, while Fresno State are a long shot... I do wish the Play Off system was in place for this season as I would loved to have seen Alabama's might Defense take on the high-powered Baylor Offense in a 'Semi Final', while the other would have been a clash between Ohio State and Florida State where the Buckeyes would potentially be putting their two year unbeaten run on the line.
Style does make a big difference at the moment and Florida State's two blow outs of then unbeaten teams Clemson and Miami is going to be tough to ignore the rest of the way, while the whole nation is fascinated by what Jameis Winston can do behind Center.
There have been too many non-performances from Ohio State to see that overturned in the last month of the season and both them and Baylor will be hoping the top two can be knocked off along the way to get involved in the National Championship discussion. The Buckeyes are also playing in a Conference that isn't being rated very highly and that also goes against their unbeaten season. At this moment in time, everyone is salivating at the prospect of seeing Alabama go up against Winston and the Seminoles and that is going to be very difficult to change the rest of the way.
However, if there is one thing I know about College Football is that you should expect the unexpected when it comes to these unbeaten teams and focus is going to be key for the 'big four' unbeaten teams with a month to go.
Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: Both of these teams have been largely disappointing, but the TCU Horned Frogs can at least run the table and make themselves Bowl eligible and I do like them to win this game.
The TCU Defense has played pretty well to be fair to them, and the should shut down the running game the Cyclones have, while getting plenty of pressure up front and look to turn the ball over.
The whole key to this game is Casey Pachall who had a big game last week despite the Horned Frogs falling just short. He should have more success against a Defense that has allowed more than 250 yards per game through the air and I do think TCU will win this game as long as they limit the turnovers when they have the ball.
Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: If you were worried that Missouri may have a let down after losing their first game of the season against the South Carolina Gamecocks in overtime, you needn't have done as they crushed Tennessee last week.
Maty Mauk should continue leading this team effectively if James Franklin is not ready to go, especially as the Kentucky Wildcats have struggled badly to stop the run. I am expecting Missouri to pound the ball and keep the team in third and short situations which will allow them to control the clock and tire out a Defense that may have to spend long drives on the field.
I am not convinced that Kentucky have enough passing from the Quarter Back position to keep up with Missouri in this one and it would be their passing game that will need to be firing in this one. The Tigers have been solid against the run this season and may slow down Jalen Whitlow just enough to force the Wildcats to pass to keep up.
That is when the pressure up front and the turnover creating Defense of the Tigers may take over the game and I like Missouri to find a way to cover the spread.
Florida State Seminoles @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: This is a huge spread to cover, especially if Florida State decide to rest their starters as they did against North Carolina State a couple of weeks ago which saw the latter complete a backdoor cover.
However, the defeat for Oregon on Thursday should keep Florida State very much focused on this game and I think they are going to be far too good for Wake Forest.
Losing the Demon Deacons top Receiving option will make it tough for them to score points on the Seminoles and also to even sustain drives. Turnovers may be another problem for them and Florida State should be able to put up enough points to see them cover as long as the starters stay in for at least three quarters.
As I said, it is a big spread, but Florida State have been winning games by big margins and I like Jameis Winston to lead them to another big one on the road.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: The Purdue Boilermakers have scored just 7 points in their last three games and have been struggling very much on Offense where they have failed to score a point in the last two games. The Offensive Line has struggled to keep the Quarter Back upright and that has made it tough for Danny Etling to complete passes.
There is no doubt that the Hawkeyes have to be better in the Red Zone, but they have the higher motivation with the chance to become Bowl eligible in this game. Iowa should be able to make big gains on the ground, although Jake Rudock has to protect the ball better than he has for much of this season.
I would expect Iowa to lean on the running game after Purdue were gashed on the ground by Ohio State last week and I like the Hawkeyes to cover this spread.
Auburn Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I have to have some respect for Tennessee in this game as they have won 4 of their 5 home games so far this season, but it is a big ask for them to beat a confident Auburn team with a back up Quarter Back in the game.
Joshua Dobbs struggled a lot last week and he will have to do a lot of the work in this one, but he has to be more careful with the ball if the Volunteers are to make this a real game.
The problem is going to come if Rajion Neal and the rushing game is not working effectively as it was struggling last week against Missouri. On the other hand, I expect Auburn could tire out a Defense that was given the ground and pound treatment last week by Missouri and are likely going to have to deal with a lot of running plays again this week.
Auburn's Defense may just make couple of big plays that sees them turn the ball over and help them clear this spread taking them one step closer to making the game with Alabama a winner takes all in the SEC West.
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Utah Utes Pick: Confidence must have been very high for Utah after they knocked off Stanford last month, but back to back defeats and the visit of a high-flying Arizona State team looks a big ask for them to overcome.
The Sun Devils have been putting up big numbers Offensively, but the Defense has also quietly been going about their business and I just feel they can make Utah one dimensional on Offense which will give them a big advantage.
Arizona State have dominated Utah the last two years and they look the stronger team this year too- I like them to cover, especially with full focus of a team that has beaten a ranked team in Stanford here already.
North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: It is going to take some effort for the North Carolina State team to get up from their loss to local rivals North Carolina last week and they have lost 4 straight matches while facing a Duke team that will be full of confidence that comes with 4 straight wins.
The teams are trending in opposite ways, while Pete Thomas has to do better at protecting the ball if the Wolf Pack are to beat Duke. That is in contrast to what the Blue Devils can do with the ball, although they have been turning over the ball too much too.
A problem for the Wolf Pack is that they have struggled to stop the run too, while their own Offense can become one-dimensional and that should make the difference for Duke to go on and win this game handily.
Houston Cougars @ UCF Knights Pick: The winner of this game will have the inside track to win the American Athletic Conference, although the Louisville Cardinals will be hoping the Houston Cougars can spring the surprise having been beaten by the UCF Knights earlier this season.
That would open the door for Teddy Bridgewater and his crew who take on Houston next.
I am surprised with the amount of points being given to the Cougars in this one because they have a high-powered Offense that should have their chance to score points. Both teams are pretty stout against the run, but both can also air the ball out very effectively which could open up the running lanes.
The UCF pass Defense is a little better than Houston's and that may be the reason the Knights come through and win the game, but the backdoor cover has a real chance in my opinion at the least and I like the Cougars to cover.
UCLA Bruins @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: The winner of this game will still have a chance to win the Pac-12 South and a chance to play for the Conference title, while the loser will effectively settle for a lesser Bowl appearance after the regular season is over.
UCLA smashed Arizona at home last season so there is a real revenge angle at play for Arizona, but I am surprised that the Bruins are considered the dog in the game.
Yes, the Bruins have lost road games at the best teams they have faced, but I am not convinced Arizona should be labelled as one of those and I think Brett Hundley is going to make the big plays for UCLA in this one. Hundley should have a clean pocket to make plays for much of this game and that might be what gives the Bruins the edge and I like them with the points.
MY PICKS: TCU Horned Frogs - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 34 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 7 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars + 12 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 10: 6-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 7: 3-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 45-35-2, + 7.34 Units (82 Units Staked, + 8.95% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
But in the famous words of Lee Corso, 'not so fast my friends': the Baylor Bears are quietly not just beating teams, but blowing them out and they made a big statement by crushing the Oklahoma Sooners on Thursday night to remain unbeaten and also in pole position to win the Big 12 Conference.
Ohio State will need to win games big the rest of the season if they are to get in the mix, while Fresno State are a long shot... I do wish the Play Off system was in place for this season as I would loved to have seen Alabama's might Defense take on the high-powered Baylor Offense in a 'Semi Final', while the other would have been a clash between Ohio State and Florida State where the Buckeyes would potentially be putting their two year unbeaten run on the line.
Style does make a big difference at the moment and Florida State's two blow outs of then unbeaten teams Clemson and Miami is going to be tough to ignore the rest of the way, while the whole nation is fascinated by what Jameis Winston can do behind Center.
There have been too many non-performances from Ohio State to see that overturned in the last month of the season and both them and Baylor will be hoping the top two can be knocked off along the way to get involved in the National Championship discussion. The Buckeyes are also playing in a Conference that isn't being rated very highly and that also goes against their unbeaten season. At this moment in time, everyone is salivating at the prospect of seeing Alabama go up against Winston and the Seminoles and that is going to be very difficult to change the rest of the way.
However, if there is one thing I know about College Football is that you should expect the unexpected when it comes to these unbeaten teams and focus is going to be key for the 'big four' unbeaten teams with a month to go.
Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: Both of these teams have been largely disappointing, but the TCU Horned Frogs can at least run the table and make themselves Bowl eligible and I do like them to win this game.
The TCU Defense has played pretty well to be fair to them, and the should shut down the running game the Cyclones have, while getting plenty of pressure up front and look to turn the ball over.
The whole key to this game is Casey Pachall who had a big game last week despite the Horned Frogs falling just short. He should have more success against a Defense that has allowed more than 250 yards per game through the air and I do think TCU will win this game as long as they limit the turnovers when they have the ball.
Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: If you were worried that Missouri may have a let down after losing their first game of the season against the South Carolina Gamecocks in overtime, you needn't have done as they crushed Tennessee last week.
Maty Mauk should continue leading this team effectively if James Franklin is not ready to go, especially as the Kentucky Wildcats have struggled badly to stop the run. I am expecting Missouri to pound the ball and keep the team in third and short situations which will allow them to control the clock and tire out a Defense that may have to spend long drives on the field.
I am not convinced that Kentucky have enough passing from the Quarter Back position to keep up with Missouri in this one and it would be their passing game that will need to be firing in this one. The Tigers have been solid against the run this season and may slow down Jalen Whitlow just enough to force the Wildcats to pass to keep up.
That is when the pressure up front and the turnover creating Defense of the Tigers may take over the game and I like Missouri to find a way to cover the spread.
Florida State Seminoles @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: This is a huge spread to cover, especially if Florida State decide to rest their starters as they did against North Carolina State a couple of weeks ago which saw the latter complete a backdoor cover.
However, the defeat for Oregon on Thursday should keep Florida State very much focused on this game and I think they are going to be far too good for Wake Forest.
Losing the Demon Deacons top Receiving option will make it tough for them to score points on the Seminoles and also to even sustain drives. Turnovers may be another problem for them and Florida State should be able to put up enough points to see them cover as long as the starters stay in for at least three quarters.
As I said, it is a big spread, but Florida State have been winning games by big margins and I like Jameis Winston to lead them to another big one on the road.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: The Purdue Boilermakers have scored just 7 points in their last three games and have been struggling very much on Offense where they have failed to score a point in the last two games. The Offensive Line has struggled to keep the Quarter Back upright and that has made it tough for Danny Etling to complete passes.
There is no doubt that the Hawkeyes have to be better in the Red Zone, but they have the higher motivation with the chance to become Bowl eligible in this game. Iowa should be able to make big gains on the ground, although Jake Rudock has to protect the ball better than he has for much of this season.
I would expect Iowa to lean on the running game after Purdue were gashed on the ground by Ohio State last week and I like the Hawkeyes to cover this spread.
Auburn Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I have to have some respect for Tennessee in this game as they have won 4 of their 5 home games so far this season, but it is a big ask for them to beat a confident Auburn team with a back up Quarter Back in the game.
Joshua Dobbs struggled a lot last week and he will have to do a lot of the work in this one, but he has to be more careful with the ball if the Volunteers are to make this a real game.
The problem is going to come if Rajion Neal and the rushing game is not working effectively as it was struggling last week against Missouri. On the other hand, I expect Auburn could tire out a Defense that was given the ground and pound treatment last week by Missouri and are likely going to have to deal with a lot of running plays again this week.
Auburn's Defense may just make couple of big plays that sees them turn the ball over and help them clear this spread taking them one step closer to making the game with Alabama a winner takes all in the SEC West.
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Utah Utes Pick: Confidence must have been very high for Utah after they knocked off Stanford last month, but back to back defeats and the visit of a high-flying Arizona State team looks a big ask for them to overcome.
The Sun Devils have been putting up big numbers Offensively, but the Defense has also quietly been going about their business and I just feel they can make Utah one dimensional on Offense which will give them a big advantage.
Arizona State have dominated Utah the last two years and they look the stronger team this year too- I like them to cover, especially with full focus of a team that has beaten a ranked team in Stanford here already.
North Carolina State Wolf Pack @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: It is going to take some effort for the North Carolina State team to get up from their loss to local rivals North Carolina last week and they have lost 4 straight matches while facing a Duke team that will be full of confidence that comes with 4 straight wins.
The teams are trending in opposite ways, while Pete Thomas has to do better at protecting the ball if the Wolf Pack are to beat Duke. That is in contrast to what the Blue Devils can do with the ball, although they have been turning over the ball too much too.
A problem for the Wolf Pack is that they have struggled to stop the run too, while their own Offense can become one-dimensional and that should make the difference for Duke to go on and win this game handily.
Houston Cougars @ UCF Knights Pick: The winner of this game will have the inside track to win the American Athletic Conference, although the Louisville Cardinals will be hoping the Houston Cougars can spring the surprise having been beaten by the UCF Knights earlier this season.
That would open the door for Teddy Bridgewater and his crew who take on Houston next.
I am surprised with the amount of points being given to the Cougars in this one because they have a high-powered Offense that should have their chance to score points. Both teams are pretty stout against the run, but both can also air the ball out very effectively which could open up the running lanes.
The UCF pass Defense is a little better than Houston's and that may be the reason the Knights come through and win the game, but the backdoor cover has a real chance in my opinion at the least and I like the Cougars to cover.
UCLA Bruins @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: The winner of this game will still have a chance to win the Pac-12 South and a chance to play for the Conference title, while the loser will effectively settle for a lesser Bowl appearance after the regular season is over.
UCLA smashed Arizona at home last season so there is a real revenge angle at play for Arizona, but I am surprised that the Bruins are considered the dog in the game.
Yes, the Bruins have lost road games at the best teams they have faced, but I am not convinced Arizona should be labelled as one of those and I think Brett Hundley is going to make the big plays for UCLA in this one. Hundley should have a clean pocket to make plays for much of this game and that might be what gives the Bruins the edge and I like them with the points.
MY PICKS: TCU Horned Frogs - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 34 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 7 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars + 12 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 10: 6-3-1, + 2.69 Units (10 Units Staked, + 26.9% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.86% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 3.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.75% Yield)
Week 7: 3-6, - 3.26 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.22% Yield)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 45-35-2, + 7.34 Units (82 Units Staked, + 8.95% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks 2013 (November 9th)
Group A was concluded last night and we already know one of the Semi Final matches as Novak Djokovic will be taking on Stanislas Wawrinka on Sunday and hopefully they can end the season with a match to rival the one they played in one of the first tournaments of the season at the Australian Open.
We also know Rafael Nadal will take on the winner of the Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer match which will be played on Saturday afternoon and that is obviously the match that will garner most of the headlines as the season has just three days left to go (outside of the Davis Cup Final which is played next week).
Roger Federer win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: The last four matches between Juan Martin Del Potro nd Roger Federer have all come on an indoor hard court and it was Federer who had to snap a 3 match losing run against the Argentinian with a win in Paris last week.
All of the matches have had to be decided by a final set and there is every chance that this will be another match that goes the distance as both players can get a little hot at time and run through and take a set.
Both players can sometimes also lose their way and throw in a poor game which will give their opponent a chance and I do believe that this is going to be a quality match with twists and turns.
Del Potro has won both matches played at the World Tour Finals in London, but I do think Federer has looked in a better place physically of the two players and I think he can find a way to just get the better of the big man for the second time in two weeks. Federer has looked vulnerable though so it would be a real surprise to me if he was to win this one in straight sets and a small interest on the 17 time Grand Slam Champion winning this in 3 sets is the call.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This is a dead rubber for both men, but I think Novak Djokovic will be the more motivated as he will want to get this done with minimal fuss to keep his winning run intact and also not to waste too much energy for the Semi Final and potential Final in the next couple of days.
Djokovic has the return game to give Gasquet fits and he defends well enough to really take advantage of some of the movement issues that the Frenchman displays at times on the court.
It is no surprise that Djokovic has dominated the head to head with Gasquet as his game matches up so well against Gasquet's. With the added issue of this being the last game of the season for Gasquet, there is every chance that he could fall away in the second set after losing a close one in the first and I do believe the World Number 2 gets ready for the Semi Final in style.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer win 2-1 @ 4.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 5-5, + 4.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 27.88% Yield)
We also know Rafael Nadal will take on the winner of the Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer match which will be played on Saturday afternoon and that is obviously the match that will garner most of the headlines as the season has just three days left to go (outside of the Davis Cup Final which is played next week).
Roger Federer win 2-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: The last four matches between Juan Martin Del Potro nd Roger Federer have all come on an indoor hard court and it was Federer who had to snap a 3 match losing run against the Argentinian with a win in Paris last week.
All of the matches have had to be decided by a final set and there is every chance that this will be another match that goes the distance as both players can get a little hot at time and run through and take a set.
Both players can sometimes also lose their way and throw in a poor game which will give their opponent a chance and I do believe that this is going to be a quality match with twists and turns.
Del Potro has won both matches played at the World Tour Finals in London, but I do think Federer has looked in a better place physically of the two players and I think he can find a way to just get the better of the big man for the second time in two weeks. Federer has looked vulnerable though so it would be a real surprise to me if he was to win this one in straight sets and a small interest on the 17 time Grand Slam Champion winning this in 3 sets is the call.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This is a dead rubber for both men, but I think Novak Djokovic will be the more motivated as he will want to get this done with minimal fuss to keep his winning run intact and also not to waste too much energy for the Semi Final and potential Final in the next couple of days.
Djokovic has the return game to give Gasquet fits and he defends well enough to really take advantage of some of the movement issues that the Frenchman displays at times on the court.
It is no surprise that Djokovic has dominated the head to head with Gasquet as his game matches up so well against Gasquet's. With the added issue of this being the last game of the season for Gasquet, there is every chance that he could fall away in the second set after losing a close one in the first and I do believe the World Number 2 gets ready for the Semi Final in style.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer win 2-1 @ 4.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
World Tour Finals Update: 5-5, + 4.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 27.88% Yield)
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