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NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Friday, 27 September 2024

College Football Week 5 Picks 2024 (Friday 27th September-Saturday 28th September)

Another Week in College Football is set to begin with an important Friday night game, while the majority of teams are beginning to get into Conference action.

Despite having four weeks of information, this still feels like a learning point of the season now that teams are moving out of the non-Conference setting and playing opponents of a higher level than they would have seen previously.

There are one or two of the spreads that came very close to being selected, but there is still a considerable amount of Football to be played and so having another week of information feels more important than taking any unnecessary risks.


Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC looks to have lost one of the pre-season contenders and some of the dark horses have failed to bolt out of the gate.

With that in mind, fans of the Conference will perhaps already looking ahead to a potential Championship Game involving the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes (4-0), although both of those teams know the importance of remaining focused.

Miami will be heading into a long road trip in Week 6 when visiting the California Golden Bears, but they are hosting a rival in Virginia Tech Hokies (2-2) who would love to play spoiler. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they have been beaten by Vanderbilt and Rutgers already this season and this is a huge step up with only the potentially poor playing conditions a likely equaliser on the night.

Hurricane Helene is not expected to make landfall in this part of Florida, but it could still be tougher conditions than usual for the Miami Hurricanes, especially in a game they are hosting. Excuses will not be made and especially not when so many others will be worrying about much bigger things than Football in other parts of the State, and all Miami can do is make sure they focused on producing their best efforts on the field.

They will have to be focused with the first four wins of the season coming against non-Conference opponents and none of those have really been that impressive. Blowing out the Florida Gators would have made the fans very happy, but the Gators have looked poor and Miami still have plenty to prove.

The Hurricanes do look solid on the Defensive side of the ball all things considered and the key to their success is right up front on the Defensive Line, which has been able to clamp down on the run and force Offenses to become a little predictable in their play.

It has been so important keeping teams in third and long spots and allowed the Hurricanes to unleash a fierce pass rush that has disrupted the passing game. Pressure up front is only good news for the Defensive Backs who do not have to lock down Receivers for too long and the Miami team have complemented one another on this side of the ball.

Virginia Tech have been a bit too inconsistent on the Offensive side of the ball to believe they are going to have a lot of success in this game. Looking after the ball and trying to play the field advantage will be an important approach to take, but Kyron Drones will know he is going to be throwing under pressure and into a Miami Secondary that has turned the ball over.

Any turnovers could really see the Miami Hurricanes take control of the game, but even long fields may not intimidate Cam Ward and an Offense making big headlines through the first month of the season.

The Quarter Back has shown he can make some plays with his legs, but has impressed with his arm and it does help that he is playing behind a Hurricanes Offensive Line that has been bullying opponents up front. They have helped Miami pile up some big yards on the ground and rip open some big runs, which is only going to bode well against this Hokies Defensive Line that has struggled against weaker Offensive Lines than the one they will be facing in this Conference game.

Pushing the ball on the ground should open up play-action opportunities for Cam Ward and he will likely have enough time to make his plays down the field. The Virginia Tech Secondary numbers have not been bad early in this season, but that is partly down to an inability to stop the run with a lot of consistency and the fact they have not faced a Quarter Back like the one they are dealing with on Friday.

Cam Ward has 14 Touchdown passes already this season with just 2 Interceptions and the Hokies have not made enough plays against the pass to believe the latter of those numbers is changed significantly. It should mean Ward has a chance to showcase his Heisman winning potential in a prime spot in Week 5 and the Miami Hurricanes may end up pulling away for a big win and cover.

Games between these rivals have been very competitive in recent years, but Miami had a couple of big wins over Virginia Tech in 2017 and 2018 and this Hurricanes team can make a statement and show why they should be in the National Championship contenders conversation.


Stanford Cardinal @ Clemson Tigers Pick: They may be holding the same record after three games and both the Clemson Tigers (2-1) and Stanford Cardinal (2-1) have opening ACC Conference wins on the board, but the overall outlook for these two teams still feels very different.

Despite the shellacking at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, the Clemson Tigers are amongst the favourites to reach the ACC Championship Game and push for a place in the College Football PlayOff later this year. The Miami Hurricanes may be their closest rival in the Conference and the Tigers are at home after a big win over the NC State Wolfpack, but they will not want to overlook the Cardinal, even if they are not as strong as other teams produced by Stanford in recent years.

Leaving the Pac-12 to join the ACC, the Stanford Cardinal have bounced back from a loss to the TCU Horned Frogs and they ended the Syracuse Orange unbeaten start to the season in Week 4.

It will give the team confidence, although they are facing an even stronger opponent and in a true road game, which can be tough for any team.

Ashton Daniels has taken over at Quarter Back for the Stanford Cardinal, but he will be keen to see the Offensive Line dictate things up front and then make things all the more comfortable for when Daniels drops back to throw. The numbers have not been that impressive when it comes to establishing the run, but Stanford may have a bit more joy against this Clemson Defensive Line and that will be important to ease some of the pressure on their Quarter Back.

It has been a mixed start to the season for Ashton Daniels who has thrown 4 Touchdown passes, but also 3 Interceptions. Being in third and manageable would just make sure Daniels does not feel he has to win this game on his arm and there are enough vulnerabilities in this Secondary to believe he can keep Stanford ticking over.

Third and long would be that much more difficult to convert for Ashton Daniels when you consider the turnovers that he has thrown and factor in the turnovers that the Clemson Defensive unit have been able to create.

The Cardinal will certainly want to make this a grind it out kind of game and keep a powerful Clemson Offense on the sidelines to stew. After the horrible overall performance against the Georgia Bulldogs, Clemson have looked very good with Cade Klubnik leading the way at Quarter Back.

He has already shown his character by now allowing the underpar Week 1 performance define him and Cade Klubnik is likely to have a very big game statistically. The Tigers match up pretty well with the Stanford Defensive unit and Klubnik should be able to exploit that by leading his team to another victory.

Last week the Tigers came in for us with a winning performance against the NC State Wolfpack and Clemson are likely going to find plenty of balance from their Offensive unit in this one. While the Stanford Defensive Line have been able to play the run pretty well, they will not have come up against a team with this kind of Offensive unit too often and so the Tigers have to feel they can establish the run effectively.

This would just make things that much easier for Cade Klubnik considering the massive holes that have been in the Secondary of the Cardinal. Teams are averaging almost 300 passing yards per game against them and it would not be a surprise at all if Klubnik was to reach that milestone.

He has been able to play turnover free Football and that is likely going to lead to another big win for the Tigers.

However, covering might be more challenging with a game against the Florida State Seminoles next up on deck, which is a natural Conference rival compared with Stanford even if the Seminoles have had a horrible start to 2024.

The Cardinal also look like they may be able to sustain a few Offensive drives and that may just chew up the clock for enough time to prevent a defeat by four scores. Avoiding turnovers will be important to the road team, but if they can do that, they can avoid a really embarrassing loss against one of the Conference favourites.


Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: It might only be Week 5 of the College Football season, but the stand out game comes from the SEC where so many of the leading National Championship contenders all face off.

While the Texas Longhorns may be the Number 1 Ranked team right now, the Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) and Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) have a huge rivalry within the SEC and one that has seen the victor go on and win the National Championship.

It is the Crimson Tide who have dominated the series of late, but Head Coach Nick Saban is no longer with the team and this is the first real test they will have faced in 2024. The blowout win at the Wisconsin Badgers is impressive, especially on the road, but the Georgia Bulldogs have a long unbeaten regular season record to protect and their blowout win over the Clemson Tigers in Week 1 is looking better and better week after week.

Motivation is on the side of Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs players who lost the SEC Championship Game against the Alabama Crimson Tide last year and that ultimately cost them the chance to win another National Championship. It is a decision that still bother fans of Georgia and they will be looking for redemption when playing in Tuscaloosa.

Both teams are coming into this one behind a Bye and it will have been important to get the preparation right.

You know the Defensive units will give any opponent problems, but the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are filled with talented, NFL calibre players on the Offense and that usually means they will find a way to scheme to success.

As mentioned, Alabama have had the better of the Georgia Bulldogs and have won eight of the last nine between them.

But it should also be mentioned that this is not simply the case of the Crimson Tide being the stronger team, because their last two wins over the Bulldogs have been as a significant underdog. This time they are not an underdog being given almost a Touchdown start, but Alabama are not used to being a home underdog in any situation and you just have to believe it will have been motivating them over the last fortnight.

Jalen Milroe had one or two questions to answer last year as he just struggled, but he made a strong end to the year and the Quarter Back has begun 2024 with a new found confidence. He has thrown 8 Touchdown passes and rushed for 6 more and it will be a tough task for the Bulldogs to control Jalen Milroe, even if the Defensive Line have been playing at a very strong level.

Like with so many of these top games, the Line of Scrimmage is going to be extremely important whoever is Offensively on the board. The Crimson Tide Offensive Line has played well, as has the Georgia Offensive Line, but it may be the Bulldogs who have a bit more success making big plays against the run.

Of course that alone will not slow down Jalen Milroe and the Quarter Back will just have to make sure he is focused on identifying where the Bulldogs pass rush pressure is coming from. Being a little stronger against the run can be backed up by the pass rush pressure generated and it may just lead to one or two Alabama drives stalling without being able to add seven points to the scoreboard.

The feeling is that the Bulldogs might be able to offer their own Quarter Back, Carson Beck, a bit more time all around.

Georgia's Offensive Line may be able to do just enough to keep the team in a position to be in front of the chains and that may give Carson Beck the chance he needs to make plays against this Secondary. Throwing the ball against this Alabama Secondary has been tough work for the opening three opponents, but Beck should be given time by his Offensive Line and that may just see the Bulldogs moving into a position to win and cover, while earning revenge for the SEC Championship Game defeat in 2023.

Carson Beck has been efficient rather than spectacular and that could mean Georgia are happy to play the field position at times, but it may be what they need to start turning this series back in their favour and to push towards the College Football PlayOff.

The struggles against the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 3 might have actually done Georgia a favour to remind them of the hard week needed every week, and Kirby Smart can win this battle against Kalen DeBoer, who has yet to face a test like this in his very early career as the Head Coach of Alabama.

MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal + 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Thursday, 26 September 2024

NFL Week 4 Picks 2024 (Thursday 26th September-Monday 30th September)

After two solid weeks, the third week of the NFL season produced more inconsistent results as far as the NFL Picks are concerned.

It has been a relatively low-key start for many teams with some surprises and some real under-performers.

Injuries have already been a major factor and there is a slight feeling of a lack of spark involved in the League, which is something of a surprise.

Week 3 has continued the early season trend of having big underdogs not only covering, but actually winning games outright. In fact, the Cincinnati Bengals defeat to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football meant the biggest underdog of the week has won for a third straight week in succession.

Suffice to say that Survivor Pools will have been decimated.

Speaking of the Bengals, they may be the biggest disappointment so far in the NFL- they came up narrowly short of a big upset of their own at the home of the defending Champions, but the Bengals have been upset by the New England Patriots in Week 1 and then by the Commanders in Week 3 and neither of those two teams have looked as strong when they have played opponents other than Cincinnati.

Injuries have contributed to the poor start made by the San Francisco 49ers, but they should bounce back once healthier. However, that is less likely to happen for the Jacksonville Jaguars who were blown out embarrassingly by the Buffalo Bills and have to be asking serious questions about Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.

Doug Pederson is on the hottest of hot seats and it may not be a big surprise if the Jaguars return from London next month and leave the Head Coach in the United Kingdom.


The Bengals and Jaguars might be the biggest disappointments, but there are teams out there feeling much happier with their starts as they have perhaps surprised those looking in from the outside.

You would have to place the Minnesota Vikings right at the top of that list after their 3-0 start with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, while credit has to be given to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks too. We will learn much more about these unbeaten teams as the weeks progress, although there will be some concern amongst the rest that the Kansas City Chiefs are at 3-0 without really playing well at all.


We will get Week 4 going with a big NFC East game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and the two 1-2 teams in the Division are looking to get back onto the same number of wins as the Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.

Big games are played on Sunday and we have another double-header on Monday Night Football with the second of the two games definitely more appealing for viewing purposes than the Miami-Tennessee game.

The results were a little disappointing in Week 3, but it has been a decent enough start and the selections will be added in this thread.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) have dominated the recent series with the New York Giants (1-2), but this does not look like the same kind of team that has crushed the Giants time after time.

That is not to say that the New York Giants are considerably better than they were, but the win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 means they have matched that one victory that the Dallas Cowboys have had in Week 1.

Since then, the Cowboys have not only lost back to back games, but they have been really poor in those defeats and even the fightback against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday put a gloss on a scoreline that was out of hand early. There is limited time for the team to work on changing things around before this Thursday Night Football game in Week 4 and the back to back losses means there is little momentum behind a team that always has to deal with big expectations.

Mike McCarthy is under immesnse pressure as Head Coach and he needs a big reaction from his players after another blowout at home.

The Cowboys have struggled Offensively and one of the big concerns for the team has to be the Offensive Line play and an inability to really get the run going as they have been known to do in recent years. There will be perhaps more room to run the ball against this New York Giants team that have been given up some big yards on the ground, but it is hard to really trust Dallas from what has been produced and so it may be up to Dak Prescott and the passing game to keep the chains moving with any consistency.

Another problem that the Dallas Offensive Line have faced outside of being able to establish the run is that they have not been able to give Prescott the chance to throw the ball deep down the field. Third and long spots are always tough to convert and the Offensive Line have struggled to stop teams from crashing down around Dak Prescott and that is something that could be in play against this Giants pass rush.

If there is time, Dak Prescott should be able to make plays against this Secondary even if the Dallas Receiving options don't look as strong as previous years. However, the question is about that time that Prescott will have and the New York Giants may have a chance to turn the tables on this NFC East rival.

After losing their opening two games, the New York Giants might have been questioning where they are heading, even if they were unfortunate to lose to the Washington Commanders when being without a Kicker. The victory over the Cleveland Browns as a heavy underdog, the latest to do so in the NFL this season, will have just given the team a boost and that could see them earn another upset.

Losing to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 does not look nearly as bad as it might have felt a couple of weeks ago and the New York Giants will have noted the blueprint to beat the Cowboys. You can expect the team to hand the ball to Devin Singletary and then look for the Offensive Line to open holes up front to expose what has been a huge vulnerability in the Cowboys Defense and keeping Daniel Jones in third and manageable spots would be a huge boost for a struggling Quarter Back.

To be fair to Daniel Jones, he is managing the game a little better in his last two outings and has not thrown an Interception, even if past struggles against the Cowboys will need to be forgotten. Being in third and manageable spots should mean he is not relying on the Offensive Line to give him a lot of time to look down the field, which is important considering their own pass protection struggles.

He has been getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly with the team being in better field position and Daniel Jones has to be really appreciating having Malik Nabers as his top Receiver. Drops had been an issue for the Giants in the last couple of years, but Nabers has shown why he was so highly regarded before the Draft and gives the Giants a real playmaker.

It is obviously difficult to ignore the dominance of the Cowboys in the recent rivalry and six wins in a row will give Dallas belief, even if they have been struggling. Many of those wins have been in blowout fashion too, but the New York Giants look much more capable of keeping this one competitive.

Underdogs have been thriving through the first three weeks of the NFL season, especially those given more than 5 points and that will eventually come back to the mean. Over several years those underdogs are not the strong covering teams that they have been in early 2024, but this looks a game where the home underdog may be able to bark loud enough to perhaps not earn an outright upset, but can stay within the point spread set.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle and were perhaps unfortunate to lose that game in Week 2, but that has been the highlight of the early part of the season for the Cincinnati Bengals (0-3). Home losses to the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders have put this team under early pressure and while there is plenty of time left in this season, the Bengals can ill-afford another defeat.

A big game against another surprising early struggler is coming up in Week 5 against Divisional rival the Baltimore Ravens, so there is some pressure on the Bengals to start turning things around this week.

Joe Burrow ended last season on the IR, but his return was supposed to help the Bengals build on a year in which they narrowly missed the PlayOff.

However, it has been a tough early part of the season for the Quarter Back and injuries have hurt some of the options around him. The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled on both sides of the ball and the manner of the defeat to the Commanders on Monday Night Football would have caused plenty of worry amongst the fanbase.

They are facing the Carolina Panthers (1-2) on the road in Week 4 and not many would have predicted that the NFC South team would have a stronger record than the Bengals going into this game. The decision to move Andy Dalton into the starting lineup ahead of Bryce Young was vindicated with the team looking much more competent Offensively with the veteran at Quarter Back, although it was not a perfect week for the Panthers with news that Adam Thielen has picked up an injury.

Thirty-six points were scored by Carolina last week and that is a far cry from the combined thirteen points scored across their last four games. They had managed to score all thirteen of those points in their opening two losses to the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers and it did feel that the the rest of the players deserved a better chance to try and have success than persisting with Bryce Young.

The young Quarter Back's future is now cloudy, but this game could be a 'down to earth' moment for Andy Dalton, even if he is going to be plenty motivated in facing the team that Drafted him into the NFL.

For all of their issues, the Bengals have still played hard enough Defensively to make some plays and they will be looking to show a lot more than they did last week in the home loss to the Washington Commanders. The Bengals Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and that will be important in this game to make sure Andy Dalton feels he is having to let routes develop before targeting Receivers down the field.

Adam Thielen's absence will hurt all the more if that is the case and this Cincinnati Secondary will feel they can contain the majority of the threats left, even if Diontae Johnson looked much more comfortable catching passes from Dalton. Being behind the chains would potentially see Andy Dalton throwing from pressurised spots, although the Cincinnati pass rush pressure has not been as strong as they would have liked.

Ultimately the direction of this game feels much more dependent on how the Cincinnati Bengals are able to perform Offensively and that is not as clear as perhaps the fans hoped it would be. We have seen moments and some drives where the Bengals look to be getting on track, but Joe Burrow will feel there is still improvement to come from himself, while Tee Higgins should also get better having made his first start in 2024 in Week 3.

Having more success running the ball will certainly help and the Bengals Offensive Line should be able to pave the way for some strong gains on the ground. Keeping the team in third and manageable will make things that much easier for Joe Burrow and the big name Wide Receivers to make plays for the team and will also mean the Quarter Back is not holding onto the ball for too long.

This should be the outcome of the drives when the Bengals have the ball and they can win this game by a wide enough margin to cover the spread.

Backing road favourites is not always ideal, especially not road favourites who are 0-3 and who have lost to two of what people may consider amongst the weakest teams in the NFL. However, the Bengals are in a desperate position and the Panthers might be a touch overrated after winning on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Andy Dalton is going to be massively motivated against his former team, but that alone may not be enough for the Panthers who are perhaps an underdog that would have received a few more points if they had been 0-3 going into Week 4, rather than playing off the back of a win.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: Losing is always going to hurt any professional athlete, but the utter capitulation on Monday Night Football in Week 3 by the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) could lead to a lot of big chances. Trevor Lawrence has not played well enough at Quarter Back, while Head Coach Doug Pederson has to be feeling like his seat has significantly warmed up.

It doesn't help that the Jaguars capitulated at the end of last season to miss out on the post-season. To then open up in the manner they have in 2024, despite the expectations, will have raised so many questions about the Coaching staff as well as a Quarter Back that has just signed a huge contract in the off-season.

Over the next month, the Jaguars will be heading over to London to play their annual international games, but they need some momentum before those games. There is already a feeling of some desperation at play following the latest loss and another on Sunday may already have the owner and General Manager wondering whether changes should be made immediately.

This is a big Divisional game for the Jaguars, but also an important one for the Houston Texans (2-1) who were thoroughly outplayed in their Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Losing against a non-Conference opponent should not be a major obstacle for the Texans to overcome and a second Divisional win will already be placing Houston in a position to return to the post-season.

CJ Stroud struggled at Quarter Back last week, but this looks to be a much more comfortable match up for the second year starter.

While the Minnesota Vikings have a Defensive unit playing at an extremely high level, the Jacksonville Jaguars have really been struggling and this Houston team has plenty of top Receiving talent to make the big plays for CJ Stroud.

Joe Mixon could be missing again and that may mean Houston are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, although establishing the run might be challenging even if the Running Back is available. The Jaguars Defensive Line has been the strength of the team on that side of the ball, although even being able to contain the threat on the ground has not made it much easier to make stops.

They could not really rattle a dual-threat Quarter Back on Monday Night Football and the Jaguars may not be able to take advantage of some of the protection issues that the Houston Texans have had early in this season. There simply has not been enough pass rush pressure produced by the Jaguars and giving CJ Stroud will expose a Secondary that has not been able to make the big plays needed to turn momentum in their favour.

Jacksonville did largely contain the threat posed by the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but this may be tougher after the miserable performance in Week 3. There will be some professional pride at play, but that may not be enough against a motivated Divisional rival playing after a blowout loss of their own.

Instead the focus will be on Trevor Lawrence and whether he can play better than what he has shown so far this season- the poor run has actually gone much further for the Quarter Back, and so it is hard to keep faith in Lawrence, even if the Jaguars will have to following the big contract extension handed to him.

A key for the team will be establishing the ground game and then hoping they can extend drives and keep the Houston Offense cooling off on the sidelines. The Jaguars were not able to stick with the plan against the Buffalo Bills after finding themselves in a big, early hole, and becoming one-dimensional is a surefire way to lose a game.

While this one is close, the Jaguars have to lean on the Offensive Line, although they are going up against a Houston team that will be looking to remind everyone that they are much better than what they showed against Sam Darnold and the Vikings. Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is key and the concern for the Jaguars is that they will have to move away from the ground attack sooner than they would like.

If that is the case, Trevor Lawrence has a tough match up in front of him- throwing from in front of the chains will give him a chance, but if Lawrence is in third and long spots, it could be a long day for him. His passing numbers have simply not been there because the Offensive Line have afforded Trevor Lawrence very little time when he has dropped back to throw the ball and time is not going to be easy to find against this Houston pass rush.

Pressure up front has certainly made it easier for the Secondary to make plays and Houston may feel they can win the turnover battle this week, which in turn could lead to a big win.

Playing a Divisional rival will provide motivation enough, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will not have forgotten losing at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023. They did win a blowout on the road earlier in the season as a big underdog, but this time it is the Houston Texans who look primed for a bounce back and a strong win as the home favourite.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFC North looks a very strong Division this season, even if the Chicago Bears have perhaps not performed as some would have expected from a dark horse. It is still early in the season as far as the Bears are concerned, especially at 1-2, but the rest of the Division all having winning records through three games and that will make these Divisional games feel that much more important.

If you had predicted one of the NFC North teams to be at 3-0, it would not have been the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) who have overachieved compared to pre-season expectations. After trading away Kirk Cousins, some felt the Vikings were going to head through a transitional season with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been far from the case within.

Wins over the New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans have been impressive, especially the manner in which the Vikings have won those games. Now they have to travel to the Green Bay Packers (2-1), a team who have bounced back from losing in Week 1 and without Jordan Love at Quarter Back.

There had been a fear that Love was going to miss significant time, but he was hoping to play in Week 3 and is again putting in time in practice to come back and lead the Green Bay Packers. The Coaching staff are unlikely to want to take too many risks with the face of the franchise though and suffice to say that Malik Willis has given the team no reason to need to rush back Jordan Love.

A win over the Indianapolis Colts before another against a team from the AFC South, this time in a revenge setting against the Tennessee Titans, has pushed Green Bay above 0.500 and Willis is looking like a competent player at this level. That was far from the case in Tennessee, but that also is something that the Packers Coaching team deserve a lot of credit for.

In giving him praise, it is hard to ignore the fact that Malik Willis will be facing his toughest test early in this Green Bay career.

He has contributed to what has been a strong Green Bay rushing attack, but that part of their Offensive game plan is going to be significantly tested by this Minnesota Vikings team. So far this season, the Vikings Defensive Line have only allowed 3.5 yards per carry and they have been able to get the better of a couple of decent Offenses, even if the 49ers were banged up in Week 2.

Making Malik Willis earn the yards through the air is going to be the key for the Minnesota Vikings with the Packers passing game a little rusty without Jordan Love. Again, credit has to be given to Willis for avoiding big mistakes and just doing what he needs to in order to keep the chains moving, but that task is going to be much more difficult if the Packers are playing from third and long spots.

There is something similar happening when the Minnesota Vikings have the ball- they are going to want to run the ball and make sure Sam Darnold is not in a position where he feels he needs to really push the boat out. So far that has not only been a good game plan, but a really strong one with the Vikings playing really well on this side of the ball.

It is a revenge game for Aaron Jones who left Green Bay to join Minnesota ahead of the 2024 season and he has promised to make the Lambeau Leap if he scores on Sunday.

You have to expect Jones and the Vikings to be able to have more consistency establishing the run when facing a Green Bay Defensive Line that has given up some big gains on the ground. This will be exactly what Sam Darnold will need, especially as the Quarter Back is playing through the pain at this moment.

Sacks could be a problem for Darnold whenever he is in obvious passing Downs, but credit has to be given to him for making sure he is avoiding big mistakes and doing what is needed to ensure Minnesota score enough points to win games. This Green Bay Secondary have given up a fair few yards in the air, but they have also created turnovers and that has to be something that Darnold needs to be aware of and look to avoid at all costs.

This has the makings of a really fun game and another chance to learn something about this Minnesota Vikings team.

No one outside of their own building would have predicted this start, although they do have to avoid being distracted by a Week 5 game in London. That is against former Packers Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets so plenty of fans will be anticipating the game, but this is the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau and that should be motivation enough.

The Vikings did win here as a narrow favourite last season, but this time they are capable of making use of the points being given to them to earn a road cover.

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Saturday, 21 September 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois (Saturday 21st September)

Some like Canelo Alvarez may be paying little attention to the money being spent by the Saudi Arabian authorities in the world of Boxing, but there are others like Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren who have welcomed the investments with both hands held out.

Eighteen months ago Hearn and Warren hadn't even spoken, never mind being in a room working together, but that has all changed with both British promoters keen to keep strong ties with Riyadh Season.

There is more to come, but for the first time it will mean hosting a card in the United Kingdom with Wembley Stadium the setting for this Heavyweight World Title bout. The winner will go on to bigger and better things in Riyadh, but the losing fighter will also have opportunities to come again and the IBF World Title is on the line after Oleksandr Usyk was almost forced to relinquish the belt.

A decent undercard has also been put together, but I am not convinced the extra seating was needed as all look to pronounce this as the highest attended Boxing fight at Wembley. That announcement will be made, but there are plenty of giveaways and you can still buy tickets, but a WWE approach of fudging numbers is to be expected.

Make no mistake, a very decent crowd will be in attendance and there will be a really good atmosphere, while the main event could produce plenty of fireworks. This is all good news and the hope for UK fans is that more of these events will be hosted in the country, especially in a year where there has been a genuine complaint about the lack of big fights/nights taking place.


The last couple of events have not been very positive for the Boxing Picks, but the management of the units has been important to keep the year in the black.

More has to be expected from the selections, and the hope is that we will see that kickstarted this weekend with a couple of big names headlining different cards.



Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois

To paraphrase the late, great Sid Eudy, the IBF continue to make 'bogus' decision when it comes to their World Titles, and stripping Oleksandr Usyk for going into a rematch with Tyson Fury might be the 'most bogus act they've ever pulled off'.

So now we have Daniel Dubois calling himself a World Heavyweight Champion and Eddie Hearn proclaiming that his man, Anthony Joshua, can sit alongside some of the Heavyweight greats of the past by becoming a 'three time' World Champion.

It's bogus.

Take nothing away from the main event, it's a good fight and one that would be worthy of giving us the next Number 1 contender to the winner of the Usyk-Fury rematch that is set to take place in December. But the winner of that fight should be the only Heavyweight Champion walking around and all of the governing bodies should be ashamed that is not the case with their fees more important than anything else.

This has frustrated fans for years and it would be a very good day when these kind of things are no longer happening or simply not allowed to happen.

The red Belt will be given to the winner of this fight, but it is Daniel Dubois who will be bringing it into the ring at Wembley Stadium, even if it very much feels like he is the Challenger. Daniel Dubois not someone who will be making speeches that will go viral, but he is a solid Heavyweight and one who will feel is entering a career defining fight.

His respect has been there for Anthony Joshua by describing himself as the 'King Slayer, while Dubois has picked up solid momentum with his wins over Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic since losing his World Title bid against Oleksandr Usyk. Daniel Dubois showed plenty that day in August 2023, but taking another knee was not a good look and something had to change.

Confidence looks much improved now having come through the verbal warfare waged by Miller and then taking plenty of shots that had onlookers wincing before breaking down Filip Hrgovic.

It is encouraging for Dubois to show he can come through a storm, but most observers will also note that the Champion cannot afford to take the same kind of flush shots from someone who hits as big as Anthony Joshua.

Technically he is a fine puncher and Joshua looks relaxed and happy within his current surroundings and that makes him very dangerous. Like his opponent, Anthony Joshua has been rebuilding himself after consecutive defeats to Usyk and four straight wins have propelled him back to the top.

Activity has been important for Joshua who beat Jermaine Franklin in April 2023 in a largely forgettable bout before showing improvement in Knocking Out Robert Helenius in the Seventh Round, forcing Otto Wallin to call it a day at the end of the Fifth Round and then wiping out MMA star Francis Ngannou in just two Rounds.

It has certainly gotten people talking about Anthony Joshua again and winning this fight and holding a version of the World Title will mean going into 2025 looking to have one more crack at becoming Undisputed Heavyweight Champion, which has long been the ambition for him, his promoter and all around AJ.

The reality is that this feels his most significant test since those losses to Oleksandr Usyk and you have to believe that Anthony Joshua is going to be tested far more by a young, hungry Daniel Dubois than any of his last four opponents. This time the fighter across the ring is a genuine threat, one who is amongst the stronger Heavyweight contenders out there.

Anthony Joshua's experience edge may be important, especially when it comes to headlining these massive nights in the United Kingdom. However, he is an older fighter now and one that weighs in considerably heavier than when he was beaten by Usyk and that likely means Anthony Joshua is much easier to find in the ring than when he tried to become a lighter Boxer on his feet.

It should make for a fantastic main event, albeit one that may not last very long.

Daniel Dubois will want to show that he has the power edge in the fight and he has arguably shown a bit more punch resistance compared with Anthony Joshua. The younger Heavyweight had his eye closed by Joe Joyce, but took plenty of shots from a then imposing opponent and people have almost forgotten that Dubois was up on the cards before he decided to save himself to fight another day.

Ultimately it was the correct decison, even if Dubois has been labelled a 'quitter'.

The shots taken against Filip Hrgovic shows the resiliency that Daniel Dubois does have, although taking those on Saturday may see him break down a bit quicker.

In saying that, Anthony Joshua still has something of a vulnerability when it comes to being given a good crack back and it has been a long time since he has faced someone as outwardly dangerous as Daniel Dubois looks to be. The last four opponents have been good confidence builders for the former two time World Champion, but he may have to show more in this one and it really feels like a fight that won't take too long to really ignite.

The lean has to be with Anthony Joshua if only for his experience edge in fighting on this kind of headline event, while Daniel Dubois has been without his trainer Don Charles. Rumours abound of some kind of falling out between Dubois and Charles, which has been denied, but this has been a very important figure in rebuilding the Champion and his absence would feel like a huge blow.

Daniel Dubois has decent fundamentals, a rock solid jab and perhaps the power edge so you don't want to rule him out.

Much like Edgar Berlanga's best approach should have been to get after Canelo and see if the miles on the clock have added up, Daniel Dubois might need to get after Anthony Joshua early. That could leave him open to a big counter, but Dubois may buzz the former Champion and all in all, this main event feels like one that should be over inside the first half, either way.


The Wembley card is being run under the Riyadh Season banner and it is no surprise that a solid undercard has been put together, plus an early preview of how Liam Gallagher will sound when the Oasis concerts begin next year.

It is a bit of a shame that Liam Smith has had to pull out of the event, but Josh Kelly has been handed a very interesting replacement in Ishmael Davis and this looks a rock solid fight.

Experience is with Josh Kelly, but Davis looks highly motivated and extremely confident even if he is stepping up his level and you can understand why the layers are finding it so tough to separate the two with a lot of belief.


Replacements can cause problems as one half of the main event will tell you so Josh Kelly has to be on his game- he can ill-afford a defeat at this stage of his career and so this is a pressurised spot for him.

But one fighter who has handled the pressure of being 'hand selected' by Turki Alalshikh is Mark Chamberlain who is expected to open up the card.

His last two fights have actually been in Saudi Arabia, and Chamberlain has Stopped his last five opponents, although he is fighting at his heaviest weight and against an unbeaten fighter.

Josh Padley will be fighting with that confidence of having never been beaten, but this feels a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent and Mark Chamberlain may continue to impress the Saudi backers with another early night.


The remainder of the undercard involves fighters that may be looking to get one more really big win out of the way and then challenge the elite of their respective Divisions.

At Light Heavyweight, an undercurrent of tension has surrounded Joshua Buatsi and Willy Hutchinson and there is no love lost between the figthers.

In recent years, Joshua Buatsi has always been mentioned as a potential World Champion and has just been on the edge of a fight for a World Title, but it simply has not happened. It is widely accepted that he turned down an opportunity to face Dmitry Bivol and Buatsi has lost some momentum after beating Dan Azeez back in February.

He has not been out since with a rumoured monster fight against Anthony Yarde failing to materialise, but the WBO Interim World Title is on the line on Saturday.

Winning would make Joshua Buatsi a leading contender to take on whoever wins the Light Heavywight Undisputed fight between Bivol and Artur Beterbiev which takes place in three weeks time, but the focus is on Willy Hutchinson for now.

The Scot has gotten under the skin of the higher profile fighter, but Willy Hutchinson is more than a wind up merchant.

Willy Hutchinson's career looked to be moving very positively until he ran into Lennox Clarke and was brutally stopped in the Fifth Round in a British Super Middleweight fight. That was back in 2021 and Hutchinson was out of the ring for over a year before returning at Light Heavyweight.

Four wins in a row against opponents he was expected to beat rebuilt the confidence before Hutchinson deservedly beat Craig Richards in June in Saudi Arabia. That has given him this opportunity to gatecrash the top of the Light Heavyweight scene both domestically and globally, but this is another big step upwards and Joshua Buatsi can be a spiteful finisher.

With no love lost, this should be a feisty contest, but Joshua Buatsi looks like he is firmly with his eyes on the man next up to face him. Unlike with his friend Dan Azeez, Joshua Buatsi may not take a step off if he hurts this opponent and he can maintain his unbeaten record with a late finish.


It is going to be a very good Light Heavyweight contest and you have to expect fireworks when Anthony Cacace and Josh Warrington get into it in the Super Featherweight Division.

They clearly respect one another and both are looking forward to the first bell, but there is a unbelievable amount of intensity soaring through the roof when Cacace and Warrington have been within any kind of proximity to one another.

The styles should gel really nicely and even the IBF's latest 'bogus' move should not have an impact on the actual contest.

It was supposed to be for the IBF World Title that Anthony Cacace ripped from Joe Cordina in an awesome display, but the IBF in all of their wisdom have decided to change the parameters on fight week rather than three months ago when the fight was announced. Now only Cacace can leave with the World Title, but an upset in favour of Josh Warrington will mean a vacated Belt, another embarrassment for an organisation that is becoming more and more irritating to fans, fighters and promoters alike.

On the actual fight, Anthony Cacace looks to be moving in a positive direction and it is fair to say that Josh Warrington may have had his best years. The style of the Leeds man means he has plenty of wear and tear on the body, and that has begun to let him down in recent fights.

He is stepping up in weight and feels stronger at Super Featherweight, but Anthony Cacace hits much harder than his Stoppage record suggests and he won't have to go looking for his opponent. At times it could be rough, but Cacace looks capable of dealing with all Josh Warrington brings to the ring and he can then move through the gears and find another Stoppage against one of the bigger names in British Boxing.


The chief support on the night is going to be provided by Hamzah Sheeraz and it feels a matter of time before he is headlining a big card himself. The Middleweight Division has never looked more wide open and Sheeraz is expected to be fighting for a World Title before the midway point of 2025.

If it was up to the Boxer himself, this would have been happening on this card, but the team have not been able to entice a World Champion into the ring. Even the rumoured fight with Chris Eubank Jr would be a huge Stadium seller, but that is another bout that has yet to materialise with the older man potentially a future Canelo Alvarez opponent.

Hamzah Sheeraz cannot allow frustration to get the better of him, but he looks a focused fighter looking to keep the momentum going after producing two big wins already in 2024. Beating up a veteran in Liam Williams was expected, but the performance in the win over Ammo Williams will have made headlines on both sides of the pond and Sheeraz looks capable of beating most in this Division.

Respect has to be given to Tyler Denny for overachieving- in recent times he has been upsetting the odds and he looks extremely confident.

And so he should being the European Middleweight Champion.

However, this feels a considerable step upwards in level of opponent and Denny is going to be dwarfed by the huge figure in front of him.

The power edge is with Hamzah Sheeraz and he can make another big statement to all of his rivals by finishing this one inside the first half of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua-Daniel Dubois, Either Fighter to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Mark Chamberlain to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.61 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Joshua Buatsi to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Anthony Cacace to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Hamzah Sheeraz to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 25-45, + 8.41 Units (94 Units Staked, + 8.95% Yield)

Friday, 20 September 2024

College Football Week 4 Picks 2024 (Friday 20th September-Saturday 21st September)

The College Football season has produced plenty of storylines already and the expanded PlayOff means more teams remain interested in the post-season push even if they have suffered a defeat.

Conference play is slowly getting going and there are some big games in Week 4, although the Picks are limited to just five different games.


Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: There is a very deep history of strong Football being played by the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0), but more recent times have been extremely disappointing for fans of the school.

Thirty years ago, Nebraska were entering a season that would end with a National Championship and the Cornhuskers would win three of four National Championships in this time. Getting up to or close to double digit wins per season became the norm, but the last decade has been tough and the Cornhuskers have finished with a losing record in nine of the last ten years.

Mike Riley and Scott Frost have failed to turn things around and the first season under Head Coach Matt Rhule finished at 5-7, but the Cornhuskers believe things will turn around under his guidance. Opening up this season with a perfect 3-0 record will give the team confidence, but Rhule is the first to admit that the real challenges lie ahead with Nebraska about to play their first Big Ten Conference game and in a prime time spot.

They are hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) on Friday evening and both teams are Ranked inside the top 25.

It has been a much longer length of time that has passed since Illinois Fighting Irish were finishing as National Champions and they have had just a single winning season in twelve. Much like their hosts, the start made to the season will offer the fans encouragement that better is to come in 2024 with that one winning record produced under Head Coach Bret Bielema.

Despite finishg with two losing records in three seasons at the helm, Bielema has overseen an improvement in the Fighting Illini performances and winning eighteen games in three seasons is the best three year run since the turn of the century. And with three wins to open this season, Bret Bielema is looking to keep things ticking over and improving with this team, although this is just as much a testing point for his team as it is for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Both teams will be looking to pound the rock and try and get in front of the chains to allow their Quarter Backs to then make plays.

Bret Bielema has always been someone who wants his team to dominate at the line of scrimmage and his Illinois Offensive Line has begun the season playing well. However, they will also know they have yet to face a Defensive Line has solid as the one that Nebraska have been running out on the field and so it could be tough for the Fighting Illini to impose themselves as wll as they would like.

The Head Coach has challenged his Offensive Line and Running Back corps to find a way to establish the run in this game, but that looks challenging. This could make things a little tougher for Luke Altmyer at Quarter Back, even if he has performed well so far this season, and he could be faced with some pass rush pressure from the Cornhuskers, which could lead to mistakes against this ball-hawking Secondary.

Matt Rhule will be looking to keep the pressure from off his young Quarter Back and the feeling is that the Cornhuskers are going to have more success running the ball. It is not only the fact that their Offensive Line has been in good shape to open the season, but the Fighting Illini Defensive Line have had one or two gaps that have been breached and it is very important for Dylan Raiola to be given an opportunity from third and manageable spots on the field.

The freshman Quarter Back has impressed early, but this is arguably his toughest test against a Secondary that will give him unfamiliar looks. Trying to work that out and allow routes to develop from behind the chains would be tough for Dylan Raiola, but if the Cornhuskers can pound the rock as they have been, he should have a much more comfortable evening.

Turnovers have inspired the Fighting Illini this season and so Raiola will have to be careful, but he is being well protected by his Offensive Line and the Quarter Back has had a knack for feeling the pass rush and moving away from it.

Ultimately the Cornhuskers can put Dylan Raiola in the best position to succeed by running the ball effectively and they will feel they can beat an Illinois team that was seen off in 2023 on the road. That snapped a three game losing run for Nebraska in the series, but they can back up the 2023 win as long as the team are not overawed by being put in a spotlight situation on Friday night as Week 4 of the College Football season gets underway.


Houston Cougars @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: Two seasons ago, the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) and Houston Cougars (1-2) finished with winning records as they played out their last season as members of the American Athletic Conference before moving into the Big 12.

Both schools would have known the competition was going to ramp up, but even then, the struggles might have come as a surprise.

Cincinnati finished with a 1-8 Conference record and Houston finished with a 2-7 Conference record, but that means expectations are not nearly as great as they would have been in the 2023 season. Now both are prepared to begin Big 12 play after starting the season with three non-Conference opponents and both the Bearcats and Cougars have suffered a close loss to a Power 4 opponent.

For the Bearcats it was a 1 point loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers, while for the Houston Cougars it was a 4 point loss to the Oklahoma Sooners, who are now a member of the SEC having left the Big 12.

It is the blowout loss to the UNLV Rebels that may be particularly disappointing for the Houston Cougars and this is a tough road game considering the amount of injuries they are dealing with early in the 2024 season. To make matters tougher, it is not just the fact they are dealing with those injuries, but it is the fact that Houston have suffered major injuries that will keep some starters out for the remainder of the year.

And it not just one side of the ball, but the Cougars have been hit hard on both sides and so it is going to be tough to earn revenge against the Cincinnati Bearcats, whose sole win in the Big 12 was against Houston in 2023.

Houston did beat the Rice Owls last week so there is something positive to bring into this game, but the Cougars Offensive Line have struggled as they have needed backups to step up. This is not a team that have been able to run the ball nearly as well as they would have liked and it is tough to imagine they will have a lot more success even if the Bearcats Defensive Line have had issues.

Donovan Smith is a dual-threat Quarter Back for Houston, but the Offensive Line has been collapsing around him and that is impacting him both when he looks to scramble and when he wants some time to throw. If he does have that time, this is a Cincinnati Secondary that can struggle to stop the pass, but the Bearcats have picked up some significant pass rush pressure and can expose the injury hit Houston Offensive Line to try and stall drives.

While the Offensive unit have had some problems, the Houston Defensive unit have overcome the injuries that have been felt on this side of the ball. Linebacker Torren Coppage-El is the latest to go down through and this is going to be a significant test against a Cincinnati Offensive Line that has opened up holes for 6.2 yards per carry.

It will be strength vs strength in the trenches, but the Bearcats have to be feeling pretty confident they can keep their Quarter Back in front of the chains, which is also very significant as Brendan Sorsby looks to make good reads before throwing the ball. Overall it has been a good start to the season for Sorsby and he has avoided mistakes, which should be something he can continue to do as long as the Bearcats Offensive Line can just impose themselves up front.

They have been good in pass protection to offer their Quarter Back the time to make his plays when dropping back to pass and the Houston pass rush has not been the most effective. Strong Secondary play has to be respected, although it was the rushing numbers produced by the Bearcats which helped them upset the Cougars in November 2023.

That victory means Cincinnati have won four in a row in the series, including the last two at home, and the Bearcats may have the edge on the Offensive Line to just lean on that group to help to another win and cover against Houston.


NC State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers Pick: A long-time National Championship contender, the Clemson Tigers (1-1) had a miserable 2023 season and finished with a 4-4 record within the ACC. Betwen 2015 and 2022, the Tigers won seven Conference Championships and also the National Championship twice, but that does not mean the fanbase is completely happy with Head Coach Dabo Swinney.

Last season plenty of that frustration was voiced by the fans and the Head Coach defended his team and his position vigorously, although there is little doubt the pressure will have increased this time around.

The Tigers had been a regular name in the College Football PlayOff when only four teams were involved, so missing out on the new expanded format of the post-season would be a huge blow. That would be an even bigger issue when playing in a Conference where the Florida State Seminoles look significantly weaker than the team that won the Championship last season, and it will feel like reaching the Championship Game is the bare minimum for Clemson.

Some of the stronger feelings about this team may have been tempered in the Week 1 blowout to the Georgia Bulldogs- at first glance you understand losing to a major National Championship contender, but the nature of the defeat is the worry, even if the Tigers have bounced back to crush Appalachian State.

With a Bye Week behind them, the fans will be arriving at Memorial Stadium expecting the Tigers to make a very positive start to ACC Conference play as they host the NC State Wolfpack (2-1).

The Wolfpack have beaten a couple of opponents they have been expected to beat, although they have perhaps not impressed as much as some would have hoped. Like Clemson, NC State have been embarrassed by a team from the SEC which has been the meat in the sandwich of those wins over Louisiana Tech and an opponent from the FCS.

After being crushed by the Tennessee Volunteers, this will feel like a 'prove it' kind of game for the Wolfpack and the Offensive Line will be hoping to find a way to establish the run. We have a limited sample, but it should be noted that the Tigers Defensive Line have been struggling to stop the run in their first two games and so the first ambition for the Wolfpack will be to establish the ground game.

It is perhaps more important with the Wolfpack losing their starting Quarter Back and having to turn to an inexperienced CJ Bailey in what is the first road game for NC State this season. That only adds to the pressure and this Tigers Defensive unit will want to show they are much better than the one that was badly outplayed by the Georgia Bulldogs.

Generating a stronger pass rush will help, but it is also looks a good chance for Clemson to bounce back with a Bye Week to prepare and having an inexperienced Quarter Back facing them,

Cade Klubnick has plenty of experience and he is going to feel that personally he has to show a lot more after that defeat to the Bulldogs in a prime time spot. After seeing the young Tennessee Quarter Back Nico Iamaleava help the team crush the Wolfpack, Klubnick has something to aim at and this NC State Defensive unit looks vulnerable.

Straight away it has to be noted that the Defensive Line has struggled to contain the run and now they have to face this Clemson Offensive Line which is capable of breaking open lanes for big gains on the ground. That will be music to the ears of the Clemson Quarter Back who is likely going to be given plenty of time in the pocket with the Tigers playing in front of the chains.

This should allow Cade Klubnick to have his way with this NC State Secondary and the Clemson Tigers look to have an edge, especially with extra preparation time.

Revenge is another motivational tool for the Tigers who were beaten by NC State in 2023 and this feels like an opportunity for Clemson to produce a very good home win to just remind people of their own National Championship capabilities.


California Golden Bears @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: They came into the season with a huge point to prove having been an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion that was left of the College Football PlayOff. Injuries had been the factor cited, but the Florida State Seminoles (0-3) still felt snubbed and that they deserved an opportunity to play for a National Championship.

So there was plenty expected from an 'angry' team, even though some key players had left.

Perhaps the blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in the Bowl Game should have highlighted the lack of depth in the Seminoles locker room, but even with that in mind, it has been an embarrassing start to the season.

Three games against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Boston College Eagles and Memphis Tigers looked like a positive opportunity for the Seminoles to at least get off to a strong start. However, it has been anything but and the team are struggling in almost all aspects of their Football.

Next up for the Florida State Seminoles is a third ACC Conference game and this time it is against one of the new members of the Conference with the California Golden Bears (3-0) playing their first game in the ACC after leaving the Pac-12.

Unlike professional teams, this is going to feel strange for the Golden Bears in having to travel so far for a road game in the Conference and you do have to wonder if that is going to be a factor. The start made to the season will give California plenty of confidence, but the travel is going to be a potential issue and they will not want to overlook Florida State despite the turmoil in the home camp.

Winning at the Auburn Tigers will prove that the Golden Bears can handle a tough road atmosphere, and this one might not be as difficult with the Florida State fans likely more frustrated by what their own team is doing.

The Golden Bears Offensive Line will look to establish the run and there is every chance they will be able to do that, which is key to just making sure the Offensive unit can move the chains with some consistency. It will certainly be important to just ensure the pass rush pressure is not going to stall drives and running the ball well enough will mean Fernando Mendoza can just make the plays needed to keep things ticking over.

Ultimately it is not going to be a game in which the California Golden Bears are going to have dominant Offensive numbers considering how well the Seminoles Defense have played for the most part. The bigger issue for the Seminoles is that they have struggled when they have had the ball and mistakes on that side of the ball have intensified the pressure on that Seminoles Defense.

The inability to run the ball has been a major problem for Florida State and they are not expected to have a lot of space to exploit in the trenches, which is only making things very difficult for DJ Uiagalelei who has transferred back into the ACC with the Seminoles having previously played as a Clemson Tigers.

The Quarter Back struggled in his time with the Tigers before rebuilding away from the limelight, and the Seminoles are making it clear that their start is not down to poor play from DJ Uiagalelei. He has simply not been given a lot of support by those around him, including the Offensive Line, who have also struggled when it comes to pass protection as well as run blocking.

Playing from behind the chains is never an easy place to be for any Quarter Back and especially if being given enough time is a problem.

In this game DJ Uiagalelei has to be concerned with the strong play of the Golden Bears Secondary, both in terms of yards given up through the air and with the fact the Defensive Backs have made the big plays to turn the ball over. If the Golden Bears can do that here, they are going to be able to become the fourth team to upset the Florida State Seminoles as the underdog.

Simply put, it is very hard to back the Seminoles here and California are playing well enough early in the campaign to earn the upset.

It is a long trip for California, but they have won at the Auburn Tigers and the Golden Bears look worth backing with the points being given to them.


Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls Pick: Conference play will tell us a lot more about the Miami Hurricanes (3-0), although there is every reason to be excited about the potential of this team after the start made to 2024.

A crushing win at SEC Florida Gators will have had everyone excited, although Billy Napier's team look terrible and it is not a win that has aged that well for Miami. Big wins have been secured over the last couple of weeks, but this is a signifciant step up in class compared with the last two opponents and with ACC Conference play beginning on Friday night.

Overlooking the South Florida Bulls (2-1) would be a mistake and people who point to Alabama's big win over the Bulls in Week 2 would also do well to remember that was on the road and South Florida should be a much tougher challenge in their own environment.

South Florida will also state they were only down one score mid-way through the Fourth Quarter before falling away against Alabama, so this is a big test for the Miami Hurricanes.

Everything will come down to the line of scrimmage when the Bulls have the ball and they need the Offensive Line to be able to impose themselves on this very good looking Miami Defensive Line. While the Hurricanes have been able to clamp down on the run, the Bulls have been effective when looking to establish the run and you feel the entire success South Florida will have is right here.

If they are not able to run the ball, the Offensive Line will have a real problem- they have been strong when it comes to run blocking, but pass protection has been a major issue and one that the Miami Hurricanes can exploit from what they have shown already this season. Byrum Brown has been relying on the strong run support and the Quarter Back could have a tough day in the office if he is being forced to throw from third and long situations.

The Bulls Defensive Line will be looking to show they can help their entire unit by shutting down the run, but this is a tough, tough Miami Offensive Line to push back.

They have helped the Hurricanes find a really good balance Offensively and the road favourite will be expecting to establish the run and just make things that much easier for Cam Ward at Quarter Back. Transferring over to the Miami Hurricanes from the Washington State Cougars has been huge for Ward and the team and performing at this level in this market is going to be pushing his Heisman credentials forward all of the time.

Cam Ward has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball and that has allowed him to pick apart the Secondaries he he faced. He should be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 3 and that should see Ward find a way to exploit this South Florida team and ultimately put the Hurricanes in a position to pull away for a very impressive win.

The last time these in-State rivals met was back in September 2013 and it was the Miami Hurricanes who left with a big road win.

They look to have all of the tools to do the same in Week 4 of the 2024 season and really make a big statement before beginning Conference play next week.

MY PICKS: Nebraska Cornhuskers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 18 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 17 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)