Upsets have been rife early in the season and we are still getting to grips with the teams that we are seeing.
Some have lived up to billing- the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans are all sitting at 2-0 and looking like they will be taking part in the post-season as long as they can steer clear of injuries.
Others have been about as poor as expected, most notably the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, but it is the surprising teams, both good and bad, that have made it tough for all picking games from week to week.
The Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams have been really disappointing in opening up at 2-0, while not many would have predicted what we have seen from the 2-0 New Orleans Saints.
It is still very early in the season and overreacting to what we have seen so far can be a mistake, especially with such a small sample size in front of us. More information will be learned in Week 3 and Week 4 and by then you will really begin to have a better idea about where teams are and what their prospects for the season could be.
Injuries have been the major talking point early in the season and those are going to have a big impact on the prospects for teams around the League.
Tua Tagovailoa took a nasty hit towards the end of the Miami Dolphins loss to the Buffalo Bills and it has led to another concussion and talk about whether he should be calling time on his career rather than risking long-term issues. For now the Dolphins are trying to give their Quarter Back time and as much support as he needs, but this could be a team that will need a new starter rather than relying on what they have in the building, especially if Tagovailoa is forced to sit out for the rest of the season.
The Green Bay Packers have also suffered an injury to their starting Quarter Back, but Jordan Love is expected back sooner than later- they may be able to give him more time if they can play as they did in the win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2.
It isn't just Quarter Backs, but there have been injuries at key positions up and down the NFL early in the season and those are going to have an impact on the abilities of teams, which makes its an early minefield to negotiate.
Some are hoping that the New York Giants will be ready to sit Daniel Jones and move on from him at Quarter Back, but it was a surprise to see the Panthers decide to sit Bryce Young after just two weeks of play under his new Head Coach.
You cannot disguise how bad Young has been, but it feels like a massive move from the Panthers who had selected him with the first overall NFL Draft Pick just eighteen months ago. Bryce Young has not had much support around him, but the Quarter Back does not look fit for purpose from what he has put on tape.
Even then, you would think the Panthers would want to give the Number 1 Draft Pick as many as the reps as possible just to make sure they are convinced about what Young can, or cannot, do going forward. Worst case would be that the Panthers get the Number 1 Pick again if Bryce Young continued to play badly, but the feeling of Head Coach Dave Canales is that Andy Dalton gives his team the best chance to win and there is now every chance that Young will go down as arguably the biggest bust of a generation.
Week 3 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football game between two AFC East teams with 1-1 records.
There are teams under pressure to avoid falling into 0-3 holes and others will be looking to bounce back from disappointing Week 2 outings.
Big underdogs have been thriving early in the season with plenty of those winning outright, never mind covering with the points in the pocket, and it does feel like the season is still settling down somewhat and so largely keeping stakes to a minimum may be the plan for now.
Two good weeks are in the books to open the season, but it is just an open and there is a long way to go between now and the Super Bowl in February 2025.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: There will be a lot of 'Survivor' players cursing the New England Patriots (1-1) were upsetting the odds in Week 1 of the regular season, but Jerod Mayo and the organisation bounced back down to earth with a bang in Week 2.
A home loss to the Seattle Seahawks will have hurt, especially as the Patriots had a chance to win that game before giving up a drive that ended with a late Field Goal to require Overtime. And this Thursday Night Football scheduled game in Week 3 might be coming up at a poor time for New England who have been hit hard by the early injury bug.
They are facing a Divisional rival on a short week when heading to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets (1-1) who recovered from an opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Tennessee Titans. One or two poor decisions from Will Levis cost the Titans and helped Aaron Rodgers win his first game in the Jets uniform having recovered from an injury that cost him all but four plays in the 2023 season.
There will be some mental obstacles to overcome considering that injury occurred in this Stadium, but Aaron Rodgers will be keen to make up for missing last season and by making a statement in this opening game of Week 3.
He should be able to have a good outing against the New England Patriots, even if this Defensive unit has begun the season in good form. A healthy Patriots Defense would be a challenge, but it is the injuries in the Linebacker position that suggests the Jets can have a strong outing on this side of the ball.
Aaron Rodgers has players who can make plays for him and exploit the holes in the middle of the New England Defensive scheme, while it may also be possible for the Jets to lean on the running game more than they have so far this season. The Offensive Line has only opened up running lanes that have led to 84.5 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, but there is every chance that Breece Hall and Braelon Allen can contribute both on the ground and catching the ball out of the backfield as they did in the win over the Titans.
This should put the New York Jets in a position to put up enough points to secure a cover of this point spread, although the one concern is the scheduling. Playing on Monday Night Football in Week 1 and having consecutive road games on both the East and West Coast is tough, but added to that is the fact that this Week 3 game is being played on Thursday.
It is a concern when you think of some of the Defensive problems the Jets have had early this season, which was supposed to be a strength of this team. However, you do have to question whether the New England Patriots can do enough with the ball in their hand to give the Jets something to think about, especially with the amount of injuries on this side of the ball.
The Offensive Line could be down a number of starters, or at least have starters who are limited.
In the first two games, New England have been able to pile up the yards on the ground and that would be important for them in this game to just keep Aaron Rodgers and company cooling off on the sidelines. Shortening the game will make it that much easier to cover with this many points in their pocket, but those injuries or limitations on the Offensive Line may make it that much tougher to run the ball.
It would also mean Jacoby Brissett could find himself constantly harassed by this Jets pass rush if they are behind the chains- Penalties on the backup Offensive Linemen will likely pile up and this should mean New York are keeping the Patriots behind the chains.
Hunter Henry will look to make plays for his Quarter Back, but the Patriots have struggled for consistency on this side of the ball already and now could be in a world of trouble with the injuries on the Offensive Line.
Jacoby Brissett has been able to look after the ball, but that might be more difficult if the onus is on him to make bigger plays and the edge has to be with the New York Jets.
It is a big point spread number and the big underdogs have been barking very loud through the first two weeks of the season.
However, the short week and playing after needing to go through Overtime works against the Patriots and also means they are going to struggle to suit up their injured players. This should see their Divisional rival work a way past the New England Patriots as Aaron Rodgers shows the home fans what might have been if he was available last season.
The Jets beat New England on the road in their last game in 2023 and they did that as the underdog- however, it has been a series that has recently been dominated by the favourite who had been 6-0 against the spread prior to that meeting in January and Aaron Rodgers and the Jets can win and cover here.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There are always going to be one or two teams that surprise early in the season and the New Orleans Saints (2-0) most definitely land in that category.
Blowing out the awful Carolina Panthers at home is one thing, but crushing the Dallas Cowboys on the road is a big statement and Head Coach Dennis Allen will just feel his seat cooling down having come into the season under significant pressure.
Another Head Coach on a short leash is Nick Sirianni who had his entire Coaching staff changed in the off-season, but who has held onto the top job with the Philadelphia Eagles (1-1). The Super Bowl loss is a little over eighteen months ago, but it feels a lot stronger and the Head Coach will be having nightmares about the Saquon Barkley dropped catch that would have effectively seen the team win their Monday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons.
Instead of running out the clock or scoring a Touchdown to move two scores clear, the Eagles had to settle for a Field Goal and ultimately that allowed the Falcons to drive down the field and win the game. Nick Sirianni will know that he is going to be facing a lot of criticism if his team falls below 0.500 early in the 2024 season after a miserable end to 2023 and so there is a lot of pressure on his team.
And with that in mind, Philadelphia could have asked for a much better opponent than having to go out on the road to face the New Orleans Saints.
Both teams have potentially distracting games on deck, but the Eagles are on a short week having played last in Week 2 and that may give the New Orleans Saints the edge.
Everything Nick Sirianni and his Eagles want to do on the Offensive side of the ball begins with their running game and the Offensive Line is playing well enough. Despite his costly drop, Saquon Barkley has fitted in nicely, but the Eagles are facing a Saints Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run very well through their first two games.
This may be the toughest test the Saints have faced on the ground though and it has also helped the Defensive Line to have leads to protect which has forced teams away from testing them.
Jalen Hurts has an ability to move around the pocket and that has helped with his pass protection, although a big miss for the Quarter Back is AJ Brown who is set to return next month. There are still some decent options in the passing game, but it may give the Saints the chance to get their pass rush firing and this is another aspect of their Football that has impressed early in the season.
The likelihood is that the Saints will be tested much more on this side of the ball than they have so far this season, but there will be a confidence that New Orleans can put up enough points to still be able to win and cover.
Derek Carr has been dismissed at this stage of his career by many critics, but he has opened the season in confident mood with a new Offensive Co-Ordinator impressing.
It most certainly helps that Carr has not felt the pressure on his own shoulders to constantly make plays and that is down to the very strong New Orleans rushing attack through the first two weeks of the season. Alvin Kamara is another who looks revitalised in the new system and the Saints Offensive Line has opened up big running lanes, which is really not good news for this struggling Eagles Defensive Line.
The expectation is that the Saints will be playing in front of the chains through much of this Week 3 game and that makes life very comfortable for an experienced Quarter Back like Derek Carr. With the Eagles Defensive Line not only struggling to stop the run, but failing to really get an effective pass rush going, the Saints should be able to give Derek Carr all of the time he needs to find some young, improving Receivers.
Towards the end of last season, the Eagles struggled against the pass and there has been some early evidence of that in 2024, which can be exploited by the Saints.
New Orleans have won their last three home games against Philadelphia and they look to match up well enough with them to believe they can do the same here, while covering this mark.
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: There is always going to be a learning curve when starting a young Quarter Back, while the moves made by the Tennessee Titans (0-2) in the off-season suggests there is a little bit of a transitional feel about the team. Despite that, there will be huge frustrations that they have lost both games played in the 2024 season considering the Titans have been in a position to win before making huge mistakes.
Will Levis will hold his hands up at Quarter Back with the mistakes really coming down to poor decisions or executions on his behalf.
Even Head Coach Brian Callahan showed his irritation about the mistake made in the defeat to the New York Jets in Week 2 that prevented the Titans from really taking control of the game and those need to be cleared up.
They have been in a position to win games and that has to offer up some encouragement for the Titans as they prepare to host the Green Bay Packers (1-1).
Jordan Love was expected to miss a number of weeks after suffering an injury at the end of the Packers loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, but he is pushing to return to the field on Sunday. It would remove a potentially big storyline in the NFL this week which would have been Malik Willis leading the Green Bay Packers into a game in Nashville against the team that Drafted him as recently as 2022.
While he was not expecting to be a starter in Tennessee, at least not at the start of the season, it was still a big surprise to Willis himself that he was traded and the motivation to prove the Titans wrong will be huge.
No matter who starts at Quarter Back, this is not going to be an easy game for the Green Bay Packers.
A limited Jordan Love would be an issue and it would be a surprise if the Packers risk their Quarter Back, especially not with a home game against Divisional rivals Minnesota Vikings next week. The Packers will lean on the Offensive Line to try and establish the run, but this is a Titans Defensive Line that has begun the season looking to clamp down on the run and then force teams to try and beat through the air.
You would have to expect Jordan Love to be a stronger passer, but the concern would be that he might be limited in his movement and any concern he has about his injury would make it tough to perform at a top level. Malik Willis will know a bit about the Titans having spent time with the team, but he is a work in progress and it could be tough for the Packers to move the chains with a lot of consistency on this side of the ball.
A case can be made that Will Levis is going to have a tough day passing the ball considering the amount of pressure he has faced when dropping back to throw. It has not helped that Levis feels he has to push the boat out, even when the scoreboard is in his favour, and it will be key for the Tennessee Titans to keep their Quarter Back focused and not continue to make poor decisions at important times.
It will help that the Titans Offensive Line have been grading the road very well and the Coaching staff have to make sure they keep faith in the run. Even when the team have been punishing opponents on the ground, the play-calling has moved away from just continuing to pound the rock and so improvements have to be made on the sidelines.
In a game like this one, Tennessee should be able to crack through the porous Green Bay Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run.
Putting Will Levis in front of the chains and asking him to throw from third and manageable should at least give the Quarter Back a chance to make plays that put in on a highlight reel rather than a blooper compilation. He will have to be aware that the Packers have given up plenty of yards, but they have gotten a decent pass rush pressure up front and the Interceptions have been a product of that up front.
Winning the turnover battle will give the Green Bay Packers a real chance of springing the 'upset', but the Titans have perhaps played better than the results suggest. Even if Jordan Love is able to start for the Packers, the Titans may have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that can see them end their winless beginning to 2024.
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Expectations are hard to manage, but it is clear that the Indianapolis Colts (0-2) are a little behind their Divisional rivals the Houston Texans. Both have second year Quarter Backs leading their teams, but CJ Stroud has had a lot more pro Football experience compared with Anthony Richardson and so a bit more patience is needed with the latter.
His season ended prematurely twelve months ago and Richardson has just been trying to find his feet on his return.
The Colts are expecting big things of their Quarter Back and there is plenty of hype around Caleb Williams and where he can take the Chicago Bears (1-1). Some even believed that the Bears could be a potential PlayOff team with the Number 1 Draft Pick named the starting Quarter Back, but Williams is another who will need time.
Chicago have won a game, but that was down to the strong Defensive and Special Teams moments against the Tennessee Titans and they were second best in their defeat to the Houston Texans.
At the moment, the key for Caleb Williams is to just focus on his own development rather than concerning himself with big Quarter Back numbers. He will be reminded that he can lean on the Defensive unit to back him up and ultimately the Bears just need Williams to not make too many mistakes.
One of the concerns going into the season was the lack of investment on the Offensive Line, who are tasked with protecting the future of the franchise, and that has been holding Caleb Williams back. His personal numbers were better in Week 2 compared with Week 1 and Williams looked to have already learned plenty in his limited time in the NFL, but the mistakes made against the Houston Texans were costly.
The Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, but they have not really helped their young Quarter Back by helping the Bears establish the run. There looks to be a bit of room to exploit against a struggling Indianapolis Defensive Line and that may give the Bears the opportunities to move the ball when they have it in the hands of the Offense.
Keeping the team in front of the chains is key considering the early struggles throwing the ball and this Colts Secondary have made some big plays for the team. And any time the Bears are behind the chains, expect the Colts to put Caleb Williams under some pressure, which is likely going to lead to some stalled drives.
The Bears will be looking to control the clock on the ground and to give their young Quarter Back a chance to make plays and a similar game plan is likely going to be used by the Indianapolis Colts.
Indianapolis have an Offensive Line that have really helped the team pound the rock effectively, while Anthony Richardson is a dual-threat at Quarter Back to help the team move the chains. Being able to stay with the run is important for the Colts, and, like Chicago, it will mean their Quarter Back is given every chance to earn a victory for his team.
Anthony Richardson may be offered a bit more protection compared with Caleb Williams when he drops back to throw, although he will have to be careful with this Bears pass rush. He will also be well aware that the Bears Secondary are playing at a strong level and this is going to be a game that may be over in the blink of an eye with the amount of rushing we are expecting to see.
It just feels like the Offensive Line play of the Colts is slightly stronger than the Bears and that could see the home team come away with a first victory of the season.
The Colts will need Anthony Richardson to just play a slightly cleaner game to achieve that and the motivation of trying to avoid falling into an early 0-3 hole may just see the home team do enough to win this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There was a genuine hope that the off-season would allow the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) to reset and just get back to the stronger Football they had been playing. Five losses in six games at the end of the 2023 cost the Jaguars a place in the post-season, and it is a real concern that they have lost both games played this season.
Now they have to travel to the Buffalo Bills (2-0) on Monday Night Football, a team that has made some changes in the off-season, but who are well rested having beaten the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Big tests are coming up for the Bills with road games against what could be some of their big AFC rivals when it comes to finally returning to the Super Bowl.
Looking past the Jacksonville Jaguars would be a mistake, but players can sometimes lose a bit of focus and at 2-0, the Bills are going to be feeling pretty good.
At the same time the Jaguars are desperate to get back on track having lost a couple of close games and there is some pressure on Head Coach Doug Pederson.
He will be well aware that the Offense has to be improved and more is needed from Trevor Lawrence if the Head Coach is going to extend his time at the helm. A big money contract is in his pocket, but Lawrence has not played nearly as well as the Jaguars need and he sounds pretty honest about his own level right now.
At least the Quarter Back may have a chance to lean on the running game in this one to help the Offensive unit stay in front of the chains and that will makes things a little more comfortable for Trevor Lawrence. Giving the ball to Travis Etienne should see the Jaguars have some success on the ground considering the early form of the Buffalo Defensive Line, but there will also be pressure on Lawrence to show the Bills that they cannot take their eye off of this passing threat.
It is also vitally important for the Jaguars Offensive Line to not have to protect Trevor Lawrence for too long- if the team is throwing from third and long, the Buffalo pass rush pressure is likely to crash in around Trevor Lawrence, and that should help the Bills disguise some of the issues they may have in the Secondary.
There have been some positive moments for this Buffalo Defense, but the new look Offense is still finding its feet and that might be funny to say about a 2-0 team.
Josh Allen remains one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL, but his Receiving corps looks very different and it is the short fields being created by some of the strong Defensive play which has really helped the Bills.
This game might be tougher considering the Jaguars have been playing with more confidence on the Defensive side of the ball, despite the 0-2 start. With the Receivers and Quarter Back still getting on the same page, the Bills would like to run the ball and that might be tough to do against this Jaguars Defensive Line.
A dual-threat at Quarter Back, Josh Allen should help the team in establishing the run, but it might be tough work on the ground and that will make it tough for Buffalo to cover this spread. There are definitely more holes in the Jaguars Secondary that can be exploited, although it might be early in the season for the Buffalo passing game to really get on track as chemistry is built on the field.
In recent years the Jacksonville Jaguars have matched up well with the Buffalo Bills and a desperate road team can keep this one competitive. Both teams have tough road games coming up in Week 4, but the home team are perhaps going to be slightly more distracted with a 2-0 start behind them and Jacksonville can keep this one close.
MY PICKS: New York Jets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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