The US Open is reaching the business end of the tournament and we move into Day 9 where the first of the Quarter Final matches are to be played.
It has been an up and down tournament for the Tennis Picks, but.a strong end to the event can still produce a winning end to the Grand Slam events played in 2024.
Grigor Dimitrov-Frances Tiafoe over 39.5 games: The bottom half has looked wide open since the exit of Novak Djokovic and there is a feeling that we are seeing players trying to overcome more pressures than they would be dealing with if Djokovic was still playing at the US Open.
Now the feeling is that the remaining four players in this half of the draw all feel they should be working their way into the US Open Final.
For players like Grigor Dimitrov and Frances Tiafoe, these are opportunities that may not come around too often with the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz looking to take over as the Big Four all move into retirement. The Spaniard is out of the US Open and that has just opened the door for these two players, who both came through tough moments to win Fourth Round matches.
Grigor Dimitrov had to play for over three and a half hours and he was looking a little lost when blowing a two set lead over Andrey Rublev. However, the Bulgarian was able to come through with a five set win several hours before Frances Tiafoe won the key points in a four set win over Alexei Popyrin, the Novak Djokovic conqueror.
Both should have taken some confidence from the fact they won matches that they could have easily lost, but the question will have to be how much have those victories taken out of the tank?
Out of the two, Grigor Dimitrov has spent a lot less time on the court compared with Frances Tiafoe, who needed four hours to win his Third Round match. He is also a popular figure wherever he plays, but Frances Tiafoe has to expect the majority of the support from the stands and that may see him push through those close moments to earn another upset.
Their one sole Grand Slam match played on a hard court ended in a four set win for the American at the Australian Open, but the most recent match between Grigor Dimitrov and Frances Tiafoe saw the former crush his opponent at Wimbledon. It is Dimitrov who has the mental edge having won three of their four previous matches, but you have to expect this to be a tight match with swings in momentum.
With that in mind, backing the two players to combine for enough games to surpass the total line set is the way to go in this big Quarter Final.
Taylor Fritz-Alexander Zverev Over 40.5 Games: A little over a month since their epic clash at Wimbledon, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev meet at the US Open in the Quarter Final.
There is so much on the line for two players that will see this as a big opportunity to reach the US Open Final, although the ambitions for both will be to win the event. It is Alexander Zverev who has found his way into the Final both here and at the French Open and his confidence has to be high after producing some big performances in this tournament.
In saying that, Zverev has to hope he has been battle-tested considering he has not faced a top 30 Ranked opponent in his run to the last eight. He has beaten an opponent in decent form in Brandon Nakashima, but facing someone like Taylor Fritz in front of the home crowd is going to be a much stiffer challenge with Fritz being one of the leading American hopes.
The World Number 12 dropped a set for the first time in the Fourth Round against Casper Ruud, but he rallied to win three in a row to move through with relative comfort. There is no doubting that the confidence has returned to the Taylor Fritz game after an unimpressive showing in the lead up to the final Grand Slam of the season.
Beating Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon will boost the confidence, especially as Taylor Fritz came from two sets down to win that Fourth Round match.
He had lost on both previous occasions when facing Zverev at Wimbledon so snapping that run is a boost, while Taylor Fritz has won two of the last three hard court matches against this opponent. The last of those matches was back in January 2023 though and Alexander Zverev is a much different prospect now, although he will also be asked to raise his level.
Backing a winner is tough, but both are very capable servers and that may be the shot that dominates this Quarter Final.
On current form, both Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev will be confident of taking a set and another five setter cannot be ruled out. However, even a competitive four set match should put this Quarter Final in a position to surpass the total games line set for this one and that is the best way to be involved.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Winning the Olympic Gold Medal has hardened the focus for Qinwen Zheng and the confidence can only have improved having come through some tough matches at the US Open. The success in Paris may just have given Zheng the belief to win matches that she may have otherwise lost, and that will be needed as she looks for revenge for a big defeat earlier in the year.
After a strong run in Melbourne, Qinwen Zheng was not quite able to get over the hump and beat the defending Champion at the Australian Open.
Once again it is Aryna Sabalenka who stands in her way at a hard court Grand Slam and the form of the Belarusian is hard to ignore. The World Number 2 is not only winning matches, but she is largely doing that without being put under much pressure and the strong hard court performer has now won nine matches in a row on the surface.
That includes winning the Cincinnati Masters and Aryna Sabalenka has only dropped a single set in that time after getting the better of Elise Mertens in relatively straight-forward fashion in the Fourth Round.
Two wins over Qinwen Zheng, both on the hard courts, will give Aryna Sabalenka a lot of confidence, but the manner of those wins is even more impressive. Twelve months ago she crushed her opponent for the loss of five games at the US Open and it was more of the same in the Australian Open Final.
Aryna Sabalenka is playing at a very consistent level at the US Open and she has put an immense amount of pressure on Qinwen Zheng with her serve. In those two meetings on the hard courts, Zheng is yet to break the Sabalenka serve, while her own opening shot has been attacked by a powerful and aggressive opponent.
In both defeats, Qinwen Zheng has been broken three times by Aryna Sabalenka and the feeling is that the latter is playing at a high enough level to remain on top of her opponent if she is in that position. Other players have not quite been able to turn the screw on Qinwen Zheng at pivotal moments, but that should not be the case for a strong front runner and arguably the best hard court player on the WTA Tour.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov-Frances Tiafoe Over 39.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz-Alexander Zverev Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 22-15, + 7.40 Units (74 Units Staked, + 10% Yield)
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