This is the point in which the women's and men's events separate with each being showcased on different days, beginning with the women's Semi Final matches on Day 11.
Day 12 will be reserved for the men's Semi Final matches before the tournament is concluded over the weekend with the women's Final on Saturday and the men's on Sunday.
The last of the women's Quarter Final matches is scheduled for the opening match of the Day 10 evening session and so any selection from that match will be added to this thread.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Emma Navarro: Twelve months ago, Emma Navarro had just lost in the First Round at the US Open and the World Number 57 made little noise in the tournament.
Fast forward to September 2024 and Navarro is going to be cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time having surpassed her Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. This will mean even more to Emma Navarro who was born in New York and reaching the Semi Final is a big achievement.
She has already beaten the defending Champion and now faces the 2023 Runner Up, although most will feel that Aryna Sabalenka is a much greater test than anyone that Navarro has beaten so far.
After missing Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics, Aryna Sabalenka has shown she is back to her very best with a title win in Cincinnati followed by a very strong run in this tournament. Getting over the Semi Final hurdle had proved too much for Sabalenka to handle mentally, but she is now a two time Grand Slam Champion and did make the Final at Flushing Meadows twelve months ago.
The World Number 2 crushed Emma Navarro at the French Open, but the belief in the lower Ranked player will be fuelled by the win she has over Aryna Sabalenka at the Indian Wells Masters on a hard court. On that day Navarro played well and was the more clinical when the Break Points came up, while she saved 4/6 Break Points played on her own serve.
Creating Break Points against the Sabalenka serve is never an easy task and that is going to be the challenge for Emma Navarro. Aryna Sabalenka has dropped serve just four times in the five wins she has produced at the US Open, which is very strong form, while three of her last four opponents have failed to convert any of their opportunities.
The expectation is that Emma Navarro will be able to have a bit more success considering her ability to get enough balls back into play to create problems. It is key to try and make Sabalenka feel she is working for every point and not having the easy service games to roll through and build confidence and momentum.
Emma Navarro has been serving very well for the majority of matches played in the tournament and maintaining that is also very important if she is going to give the World Number 2 something to think about. An aggressive player, Aryna Sabalenka has been keeping the pressure on her opponent's behind her return and she may just have the qualities to win a tight set before running away with this match.
Her experience is going to be so important, and that may see Aryna Sabalenka have the right tennis at the right moments to win the key points in a solid victory.
Emma Navarro has laid the foundation for more successes to come, but this is where her 2024 US Open may come to an end.
Jessica Pegula - 2.5 games v Karolina Muchova: She has reached as high as World Number 3 in the World Rankings, but the criticism of Jessica Pegula is that she had not made it past the Quarter Final at any Grand Slam.
Six defeats were suffered in that Round between 2021 and 2023 and Jessica Pegula had been set as a big underdog in her seventh attempt to make a Grand Slam Semi Final when facing Iga Swiatek on Day 10 at the US Open.
Not only did she crack through the glass ceiling, but Pegula did it in such style that she has to be feeling very, very confident right now. It has backed up the form shown in the build up to the US Open after Jessica Pegula won the Canadian Masters and reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters and the American is going to be receiving the lion's share of the support in this Semi Final.
Backing up the Quarter Final win will be a challenge and Pegula will have plenty of respect for Karolina Muchova, who is playing at a very high level herself. They actually played one another at the Cincinnati Masters and the first two sets were very competitive before Pegula was able to pull away for the victory, which will stand her in good stead.
Karolina Muchova was a comfortable winner in the Quarter Final, but she was dealing with some kind of illness and will not have a day of rest between matches to prepare for this contest. That is a potential additional factor at play for this Semi Final, although the overall form during this fortnight has been very impressive.
The lower Ranked player has been producing the stronger serving in this tournament, but Muchova has only had to beat a single top 20 Ranked opponent, while Jessica Pegula has beaten two, including the World Number 1.
It can be difficult to trust Pegula considering the amount of times she has thrown in a really poor performance at the business end of a tournament, while a victory over Iga Swiatek has raised the level of expectation around her. This pressure could be an issue, but the performances over the last month may just give Pegula the confidence to reach the US Open Final on Saturday, although it may take another three sets to get the job done.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 26-15, + 14.24 Units (82 Units Staked, + 17.37% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment