Another Week in College Football is set to begin with an important Friday night game, while the majority of teams are beginning to get into Conference action.
Despite having four weeks of information, this still feels like a learning point of the season now that teams are moving out of the non-Conference setting and playing opponents of a higher level than they would have seen previously.
There are one or two of the spreads that came very close to being selected, but there is still a considerable amount of Football to be played and so having another week of information feels more important than taking any unnecessary risks.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC looks to have lost one of the pre-season contenders and some of the dark horses have failed to bolt out of the gate.
With that in mind, fans of the Conference will perhaps already looking ahead to a potential Championship Game involving the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes (4-0), although both of those teams know the importance of remaining focused.
Miami will be heading into a long road trip in Week 6 when visiting the California Golden Bears, but they are hosting a rival in Virginia Tech Hokies (2-2) who would love to play spoiler. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they have been beaten by Vanderbilt and Rutgers already this season and this is a huge step up with only the potentially poor playing conditions a likely equaliser on the night.
Hurricane Helene is not expected to make landfall in this part of Florida, but it could still be tougher conditions than usual for the Miami Hurricanes, especially in a game they are hosting. Excuses will not be made and especially not when so many others will be worrying about much bigger things than Football in other parts of the State, and all Miami can do is make sure they focused on producing their best efforts on the field.
They will have to be focused with the first four wins of the season coming against non-Conference opponents and none of those have really been that impressive. Blowing out the Florida Gators would have made the fans very happy, but the Gators have looked poor and Miami still have plenty to prove.
The Hurricanes do look solid on the Defensive side of the ball all things considered and the key to their success is right up front on the Defensive Line, which has been able to clamp down on the run and force Offenses to become a little predictable in their play.
It has been so important keeping teams in third and long spots and allowed the Hurricanes to unleash a fierce pass rush that has disrupted the passing game. Pressure up front is only good news for the Defensive Backs who do not have to lock down Receivers for too long and the Miami team have complemented one another on this side of the ball.
Virginia Tech have been a bit too inconsistent on the Offensive side of the ball to believe they are going to have a lot of success in this game. Looking after the ball and trying to play the field advantage will be an important approach to take, but Kyron Drones will know he is going to be throwing under pressure and into a Miami Secondary that has turned the ball over.
Any turnovers could really see the Miami Hurricanes take control of the game, but even long fields may not intimidate Cam Ward and an Offense making big headlines through the first month of the season.
The Quarter Back has shown he can make some plays with his legs, but has impressed with his arm and it does help that he is playing behind a Hurricanes Offensive Line that has been bullying opponents up front. They have helped Miami pile up some big yards on the ground and rip open some big runs, which is only going to bode well against this Hokies Defensive Line that has struggled against weaker Offensive Lines than the one they will be facing in this Conference game.
Pushing the ball on the ground should open up play-action opportunities for Cam Ward and he will likely have enough time to make his plays down the field. The Virginia Tech Secondary numbers have not been bad early in this season, but that is partly down to an inability to stop the run with a lot of consistency and the fact they have not faced a Quarter Back like the one they are dealing with on Friday.
Cam Ward has 14 Touchdown passes already this season with just 2 Interceptions and the Hokies have not made enough plays against the pass to believe the latter of those numbers is changed significantly. It should mean Ward has a chance to showcase his Heisman winning potential in a prime spot in Week 5 and the Miami Hurricanes may end up pulling away for a big win and cover.
Games between these rivals have been very competitive in recent years, but Miami had a couple of big wins over Virginia Tech in 2017 and 2018 and this Hurricanes team can make a statement and show why they should be in the National Championship contenders conversation.
Stanford Cardinal @ Clemson Tigers Pick: They may be holding the same record after three games and both the Clemson Tigers (2-1) and Stanford Cardinal (2-1) have opening ACC Conference wins on the board, but the overall outlook for these two teams still feels very different.
Despite the shellacking at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, the Clemson Tigers are amongst the favourites to reach the ACC Championship Game and push for a place in the College Football PlayOff later this year. The Miami Hurricanes may be their closest rival in the Conference and the Tigers are at home after a big win over the NC State Wolfpack, but they will not want to overlook the Cardinal, even if they are not as strong as other teams produced by Stanford in recent years.
Leaving the Pac-12 to join the ACC, the Stanford Cardinal have bounced back from a loss to the TCU Horned Frogs and they ended the Syracuse Orange unbeaten start to the season in Week 4.
It will give the team confidence, although they are facing an even stronger opponent and in a true road game, which can be tough for any team.
Ashton Daniels has taken over at Quarter Back for the Stanford Cardinal, but he will be keen to see the Offensive Line dictate things up front and then make things all the more comfortable for when Daniels drops back to throw. The numbers have not been that impressive when it comes to establishing the run, but Stanford may have a bit more joy against this Clemson Defensive Line and that will be important to ease some of the pressure on their Quarter Back.
It has been a mixed start to the season for Ashton Daniels who has thrown 4 Touchdown passes, but also 3 Interceptions. Being in third and manageable would just make sure Daniels does not feel he has to win this game on his arm and there are enough vulnerabilities in this Secondary to believe he can keep Stanford ticking over.
Third and long would be that much more difficult to convert for Ashton Daniels when you consider the turnovers that he has thrown and factor in the turnovers that the Clemson Defensive unit have been able to create.
The Cardinal will certainly want to make this a grind it out kind of game and keep a powerful Clemson Offense on the sidelines to stew. After the horrible overall performance against the Georgia Bulldogs, Clemson have looked very good with Cade Klubnik leading the way at Quarter Back.
He has already shown his character by now allowing the underpar Week 1 performance define him and Cade Klubnik is likely to have a very big game statistically. The Tigers match up pretty well with the Stanford Defensive unit and Klubnik should be able to exploit that by leading his team to another victory.
Last week the Tigers came in for us with a winning performance against the NC State Wolfpack and Clemson are likely going to find plenty of balance from their Offensive unit in this one. While the Stanford Defensive Line have been able to play the run pretty well, they will not have come up against a team with this kind of Offensive unit too often and so the Tigers have to feel they can establish the run effectively.
This would just make things that much easier for Cade Klubnik considering the massive holes that have been in the Secondary of the Cardinal. Teams are averaging almost 300 passing yards per game against them and it would not be a surprise at all if Klubnik was to reach that milestone.
He has been able to play turnover free Football and that is likely going to lead to another big win for the Tigers.
However, covering might be more challenging with a game against the Florida State Seminoles next up on deck, which is a natural Conference rival compared with Stanford even if the Seminoles have had a horrible start to 2024.
The Cardinal also look like they may be able to sustain a few Offensive drives and that may just chew up the clock for enough time to prevent a defeat by four scores. Avoiding turnovers will be important to the road team, but if they can do that, they can avoid a really embarrassing loss against one of the Conference favourites.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: It might only be Week 5 of the College Football season, but the stand out game comes from the SEC where so many of the leading National Championship contenders all face off.
While the Texas Longhorns may be the Number 1 Ranked team right now, the Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) and Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) have a huge rivalry within the SEC and one that has seen the victor go on and win the National Championship.
It is the Crimson Tide who have dominated the series of late, but Head Coach Nick Saban is no longer with the team and this is the first real test they will have faced in 2024. The blowout win at the Wisconsin Badgers is impressive, especially on the road, but the Georgia Bulldogs have a long unbeaten regular season record to protect and their blowout win over the Clemson Tigers in Week 1 is looking better and better week after week.
Motivation is on the side of Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs players who lost the SEC Championship Game against the Alabama Crimson Tide last year and that ultimately cost them the chance to win another National Championship. It is a decision that still bother fans of Georgia and they will be looking for redemption when playing in Tuscaloosa.
Both teams are coming into this one behind a Bye and it will have been important to get the preparation right.
You know the Defensive units will give any opponent problems, but the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are filled with talented, NFL calibre players on the Offense and that usually means they will find a way to scheme to success.
As mentioned, Alabama have had the better of the Georgia Bulldogs and have won eight of the last nine between them.
But it should also be mentioned that this is not simply the case of the Crimson Tide being the stronger team, because their last two wins over the Bulldogs have been as a significant underdog. This time they are not an underdog being given almost a Touchdown start, but Alabama are not used to being a home underdog in any situation and you just have to believe it will have been motivating them over the last fortnight.
Jalen Milroe had one or two questions to answer last year as he just struggled, but he made a strong end to the year and the Quarter Back has begun 2024 with a new found confidence. He has thrown 8 Touchdown passes and rushed for 6 more and it will be a tough task for the Bulldogs to control Jalen Milroe, even if the Defensive Line have been playing at a very strong level.
Like with so many of these top games, the Line of Scrimmage is going to be extremely important whoever is Offensively on the board. The Crimson Tide Offensive Line has played well, as has the Georgia Offensive Line, but it may be the Bulldogs who have a bit more success making big plays against the run.
Of course that alone will not slow down Jalen Milroe and the Quarter Back will just have to make sure he is focused on identifying where the Bulldogs pass rush pressure is coming from. Being a little stronger against the run can be backed up by the pass rush pressure generated and it may just lead to one or two Alabama drives stalling without being able to add seven points to the scoreboard.
The feeling is that the Bulldogs might be able to offer their own Quarter Back, Carson Beck, a bit more time all around.
Georgia's Offensive Line may be able to do just enough to keep the team in a position to be in front of the chains and that may give Carson Beck the chance he needs to make plays against this Secondary. Throwing the ball against this Alabama Secondary has been tough work for the opening three opponents, but Beck should be given time by his Offensive Line and that may just see the Bulldogs moving into a position to win and cover, while earning revenge for the SEC Championship Game defeat in 2023.
Carson Beck has been efficient rather than spectacular and that could mean Georgia are happy to play the field position at times, but it may be what they need to start turning this series back in their favour and to push towards the College Football PlayOff.
The struggles against the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 3 might have actually done Georgia a favour to remind them of the hard week needed every week, and Kirby Smart can win this battle against Kalen DeBoer, who has yet to face a test like this in his very early career as the Head Coach of Alabama.
MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal + 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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