There are always some very difficult weeks in College Football and the Week 5 results stung.
Georgia almost came back to earn a victory at Alabama having trailed 28-0 early, but they were undone by a massive play just seconds after taking the lead in Tuscaloosa and the Bulldogs have had to suffer a setback.
They can still be very much involved in the College Football PlayOff chase the rest of the season and the SEC is on course to send a number of teams into the new twelve team format. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are two, but the likes of the Missouri Tigers, Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers are all top ten teams in the latest Rankings.
Issues will be cleared up as these teams begin to play one another, and we are soon going to see another big SEC game when the Volunteers host Alabama in a couple of weeks time. Avoiding slips is the main focus for the majority of the top teams this week, while other Conferences are also trying to push their top teams to the forefront of the College Football PlayOff discussions that are already taking place.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: There are two standout teams in the Big Ten early in the 2024 season and they are set to play one another in Week 7, which could decide which one, if any, is able to make it through to the Championship Game later in the year.
Of course that is no disrespect to others in the tough Conference, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) have to make sure the upcoming game against the Oregon Ducks is not a distraction. Losing a game like this one would hurt the Buckeyes when you think there are teams like the Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions ready to push into any open Championship Game slot, while the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) have to be afforded a lot of respect.
The line set for the game might suggest otherwise, but this is going to be a test for Ohio State, although also an opportunity to show what they are about.
Much is going to depend on the line of scrimmage when the Buckeyes have the ball- the Offensive Line have been opening some big running lanes, but this is the strength of the entire Iowa Defensive unit and the Line up front will feel they can restrict some of the damage done. Of course it should be noted that the Hawkeyes have not really played Offensive teams of the talent level that the Buckeyes possess, but keeping Ohio State in third and long spots will give the road team a chance.
The problem for Iowa is that their Secondary have allowed a few more yards than hoped and the Hawkeyes are unlikely to rush Will Howard at Quarter Back. With any time, Howard should be able to find some of his talented playmakers down the field and the Buckeyes should be able to wear down this opponent.
It will put some pressure on the Hawkeyes, who have not been the most exciting of Offensive units and now have to face what could be the best Defense they have seen all season.
Much like the Buckeyes, the Iowa Hawkeyes will lean on their Offensive Line and hope to find a way to establish the run against what has been a very effective Ohio State Defensive Line. So many games will come down to the Line of Scrimmage and Iowa would love to control the clock and keep the Buckeyes powerful unit cooling off on the sidelines with extended drives.
Despite the strong play in the Secondary, Ohio State are going to have plenty of respect for Cade McNamara, a former Michigan Quarter Back now leading the Hawkeyes. Back in 2021, McNamara led the Wolverines to a win over Ohio State on their way to a Big Ten Conference Championship, although they were eventually beaten in the final four of the College Football PlayOff.
He did not have massively impressive numbers in the win over Ohio State, but McNamara is a bit more experienced now and he has avoided turnovers. The problem for the Hawkeyes will be if they need Cade McNamara to push the boat out and attack this Ohio State Secondary if they are playing catch up and that is where a potentially damaging turnover or two could swing this game in favour of the home team and with every chance of covering this big line.
Two years ago, Ohio State blew out the Hawkeyes at home, but they were an almost 30 point favourite that day.
This one should be more competitive than the 44 point win in October 2022, but the Buckeyes might be the stronger team at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should lead to a win and cover.
Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: It is the collapse of the Florida State Seminoles (1-4) that has opened the door for a new ACC Champion in 2024. The 1-3 Conference record will really sting, while the Seminoles were crushed by new Conference members SMU Mustangs in Week 5 as the season goes from bad to worse.
There will be no lack of motivation for the Florida State fans in this home game against the Clemson Tigers (3-1) who might be the best team in the Conference. They have bounced back very well from the crushing defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, but the Tigers will be very aware of the threat that the Seminoles may continue to pose even if this season has been pretty miserable so far.
It was supposed to be the day when the Tigers would be facing an old colleague, but DJ Uiagalelei looks to have suffered an injury that will rule him out and that makes things that much more difficult for the Seminoles.
Instead of a Quarter Back with a lot of experience, Florida State will be preparing Brock Glenn who has not really shown a lot in his limited playing time. He will have earned plenty of reps to get ready, but Glenn will be hoping the Seminoles Offensive Line can pick up the majority of the slack and make his life easier on the day.
This has been the one area where Clemson have continued to struggle- they have not been able to contain the run, but it is perhaps asking even too much for this Florida State Offensive Line. There have been plenty of disappointments when it comes to talking about this Seminoles team, but the struggles on the ground have increased the pressure on the Quarter Back.
You have to feel that the Tigers will be looking to make especially Brock Glenn beat them through the air.
This may lead to a couple more players edging towards the Line of Scrimmage to just help the Tigers make some plays up front and then trust the Secondary to be able to distract and confuse an inexperienced Quarter Back. With the Seminoles Offensive Line also struggling when it comes to pass protection, the Tigers pass rush may just rattle Brock Glenn into a mistake or two and that could give the road team a big opportunity to put a statement win on the board.
Florida State have struggled Offensively, but they have also failed to make enough plays on the other side of the ball and that is where Clemson can pull away for a big win and cover of this line.
There has been some improvement in the performance up front, although the Clemson Offensive Line will still feel very confident in their ability to push the Seminoles around and create some solid running lanes. Any time they are in front of the chains, Cade Klubnik should be able to have his way with a Seminoles Secondary that have allowed over 275 passing yards per game in their last three.
You would have to believe that Klubnik can have a big game in this one and it should put Clemson in a strong position.
Games between these rivals have tended to be close and competitive, which is not a surprise, but at the moment there feels like a big gap between them. With the starting Quarter Back missing for Florida State, that gap could be all the wider and the Tigers can wear down a rival that is having a tough year and could be ripe for more hardship in Week 6.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: Winning road games in College Football is never easy, but winning those games in the SEC is that much more challenging.
This is where you can separate the contenders from the pretenders, although the Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) may already have shown why they have to be respected. Even earning a spot in the Championship Game is going to be considered a successful season with the amount of quality teams that are playing in this Conference, but that will be the target for the Volunteers.
The 10 point win at the Oklahoma Sooners has really shown that there is a huge amount of potential for what this Volunteers team can achieve and they are playing after a Bye Week. A big game is coming up in two weeks time when the Volunteers will be hosting the Alabama Crimson Tide, but overlooking the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2) would be a big mistake.
Losing against the Texas A&M Aggies has dropped the Razorbacks to 1-1 within the Conference and this has all of the hallmarks of being a tough day in the office Offensively.
Everyone knows that the Razorbacks want to lean on their Offensive Line to grind opponents down on the ground and to give their own Quarter Back a chance to manage the game. Ja'Quinden Jackson has some decent numbers, but he was shut down in the loss to the Aggies and there is likely to be even less room up front against this Tennessee Defensive Line that has impressed so much all year.
Another day of struggle on the ground will really make things tough for Taylen Green at Quarter Back, who has been inconsistent as it is. That has been a source of frustration for Head Coach Sam Pittman, especially as he feels Green has not made the right decisions whenever he has been faced with pressure.
It is very likely that Taylen Green will be under immense pressure in this game with the Razorbacks expected to be performing from third and long situations. Any mistakes will be punished by this Volunteers Secondary that have played well through their first four games and ultimately it gives the road team a big edge.
The Volunteers might not be using an extremely experienced Quarter Back, but Nick Iamaleava is producing at a high level and has helped the team win in a tough environment already. This should mean he is ready to compete, especially with the Bye Week to prepare, and there are likely to be spaces to exploit in the Secondary.
Some of that will be down to the punishing Volunteers Offensive Line that should help the road team establish the run much more effectively than Arkansas when the Razorbacks have the ball. As the competition has ramped up, the Razorbacks have shown they can be attacked on the ground and this Offensive Line might be as good as it gets in College Football.
They have also offered Iamaleava plenty of time when he has dropped back to throw, while being in third and manageable opens up the playbook. It should give the Volunteers an edge as long as their young Quarter Back can avoid the ball-hawking Defensive Backs and Tennessee may be ready to end their three game losing run to the Arkansas Razorbacks in some style.
Tennessee are proving they are a legit team by not only winning games, but covering spreads too and they can be backed to secure another statement victory on the road out of their Bye Week.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 18 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 28.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment