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Friday, 6 September 2024

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Friday 6th September)

The women's Final was set on Thursday and it is now the turn of the men.

There is no doubt it has been a positive tournament for the home fans with an American player set to compete in both Finals to be played this weekend, although the name of the men's Finalist will be determined on Day 12 at the tournament.


Taylor Fritz - 1.5 sets v Frances Tiafoe: The hard court form of both of these players entering the US Open was far from ideal and expectations for Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe were perhaps not as high as could be.

Both Americans have really performed well in the tournament though and the winner will be the first men's player from the United States to reach a Grand Slam Final since 2009.

It has been a period with the US players have come back to the fore, but they have struggled to get over the line and that carrot is going perhaps play a part in the match. Both are going to be given exceptional support from the New York City crowd and this has the makings of a fascinating match.

Frances Tiafoe showed he was perhaps returning to something like his best in the warm up events for the US Open- he has certainly had the weaker year overall compared with Taylor Fritz, but a run to the Semi Final in Washington and then the Final in Cincinnati will have given Tiafoe a boost in confidence.

He has not shied away from suggesting that his level has seen him lose matches to opponents he feels should not beat him, but this is another tough step for Frances Tiafoe.

We know Taylor Fritz has not played that well on the hard courts since winning the title in Delray Beach, but he did have a solid showing at Wimbledon and his level at the US Open has been impressive. With the likes of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz out of the draw, there is little doubt that both Fritz and Tiafoe have to feel a big opportunity has been presented to win a maiden Grand Slam.

The mental edge has to be with Taylor Fritz who has won his last six matches against Frances Tiafoe since dropping the first against his compatriot. The last match was in 2023, but the wins include at the Australian Open and a Masters event in Miami and the feeling is that Fritz is playing at a level that should give him the edge in this match.

Of course much is going to come down to which of these players handles the occasion the best- neither have been used to reaching this stage of the Grand Slam events, but even less so facing an opponent they will feel they can beat rather than a Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer.

This will play a part, but Fritz has really strong numbers against Frances Tiafoe with holds in 85% of service games played compared with 74% for the latter.

Neither is particularly known for their returning qualities, but Taylor Fritz has been producing the bigger serving in this tournament with at least 70% of service points won in each of the five matches played. It means he has only dropped serve on five occasions in the run to the final four, while the Tiafoe serve has been broken ten times.

Frances Tiafoe has found a few more breaks of serve, which have covered those dropped games, but it will be much tougher to recover breaks against someone serving as well as Taylor Fritz has been over this fortnight.

The fans should enjoy the match knowing a home player is going to be representing in the men's Final on Sunday, but the feeling is that Taylor Fritz can continue his dominance of Frances Tiafoe with a strong win.


Jannik Sinner-Jack Draper over 35.5 games: The controversy of the two failed tests that Jannik Sinner was ultimately absolved of any wrong-doing without facing any suspension continues to cast a cloud over the US Open. The World Number 1 is doing his best to let his tennis speak for him, but this is a situation that the sport would have loved to have avoided and commentators and fans will have questions.

His tennis has been very good in the main and Jannik Sinner beat Daniil Medvedev in the Quarter Final to eliminate the only other men's player left that is a previous Grand Slam Champion. It means the Italian is the big favourite to go on and lift this hard court Slam title having already done the same at the Australian Open and there is little doubt his confidence is high.

Ignoring the outside noise has been a huge factor and Jannik Sinner won the Cincinnati Masters title in prepartion for the US Open before embarking on this run to the Semi Final. Big serving has allowed Sinner to take a few more risks when it comes to the return of serve and that is going to be important as he gets set to face a young British player who has really made big headlines back home.

Jack Draper has long been though of as the natural successor to Andy Murray, but even his own team have to be a little surprised by what he has achieved here in New York City. The draw has opened up for him with the very early defeat suffered by Carlos Alcaraz, but Draper still had to take the opportunity and he has yet to drop a set in the tournament after crushing Alex De Minaur in the Quarter Final.

The advantage of having a huge lefty serve has really been put to good use and Draper has only dropped serve three times in the tournament. Being able to roll through service games has allowed the British player to just be a bit more aggressive on the return and ultimately he has worn down the opponents faced during this tournament.

His run to the Semi Final means Jack Draper will be moving into the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time, but winning this title would take him to the brink of of cracking the top 10. The one previous meeting with Jannik Sinner ended in a straight sets win on the grass courts of Queen's Club back in 2021 when there was 286 Ranking places between the players as Draper secured the upset.

Both are much improved these days and the serving capabilities of both suggests this will be a tighter and more competitive match than the layers may think. The total games line looks very low with that in mind and you would think it will be comfortably surpassed if both players win a set, which they are more than capable of doing in this Semi Final.

Jack Draper did have the need to call out for some medical assistance in his Quarter Final win, but that did not seem to hamper him and the day of rest between matches will do him good. Winning this Semi Final may be a step too far at this stage of his career, but Draper can build his experience level by challenging the World Number 1 in what should be a very good Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner-Jack Draper Over 35.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-17, + 10.24 Units (86 Units Staked, + 11.91% Yield)

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