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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Thursday, 5 September 2024

NFL Week 1 Picks 2024 (Thursday 5th September-Monday 9th September)

2023 was a strong season for the NFL Picks which concluded with being on the right side of the Super Bowl winner, which is always very welcome.

The 2024 season seems to have rolled around very quickly, but it is a situation where my longer thread with season predictions will have to wait until Week 2.

However, the Week 1 Picks will be placed in this thread and the one thing I do know is that it is likely to be another season where surprising teams come to the fore and contenders will fall by the wayside. There are some very strong Divisions from 1-4, while others are expected to be dominated by a leading team and the rest to follow.

All we can ask for is a positive Week 1 return to get this season going and ultimately to try and match the solid numbers produced last season.


Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The 2023 season ended very disappointingly for the Baltimore Ravens having played so well to earn the top Seed in the AFC.

They were beaten in the AFC Championship Game, despite being a strong home favourite, and the Ravens are given an immediate opportunity in 2024 to show that they are ready to bounce back from the disappointment.

Losing to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might have stung even more when two weeks later the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. This time it is the Ravens who will be looking to spoil the mood when they head out on the road to face the Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2024 season and their motivation will be easy.

Things have changed in Baltimore and the Ravens will be looking for a new Offensive Line to gel very quickly in order to give Lamar Jackson a chance to survey the field when he steps back to throw the ball. The dual-threat of the Quarter Back will also be important, but again it is up to the new Line to come together very quickly as the Ravens will be looking to use the run to open the passing game.

It will still be baffling for Baltimore fans that their team only ran the ball eight times the traditional way in the AFC Championship Game, especially as it was a competitive game all things considered. This has long been the weakness of the Kansas City Defensive unit, but having a new Offensive Line may make it harder for the Ravens to get things going for Derrick Henry, while questions will be asked about how much Henry has left in the tank.

Being unable to run the ball with any consistency will make it tough for the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson will find throwing the ball against this Chiefs Secondary a challenge. That becomes all the greater if the Offensive Line are not able to keep a productive Chiefs pass rush from penetrating the backfield and it could be a tough day for Baltimore on this side of the ball.

The same could be said when the Kansas City Chiefs have the ball.

Patrick Mahomes may not have had the big personal season we have come to expect, but the Quarter Back was very strong in the post-season and the Kansas City Chiefs relied on strong Defensive play to earn another Super Bowl Championship.

This time the Chiefs have brought in some strong Receiving options for Patrick Mahomes and the moves made certainly should see the Quarter Back get back to producing the kind of numbers that have become the norm for him since taking over from Alex Smith. Rashee Rice is also considered a Wide Receiver who is going to come on leaps and bounds in his second year in the NFL, as long as he can steer clear of the off the field incidents which have been reported over the last several months, and Mahomes may have his best set of passing options for a couple of years.

Drops had been an issue for the Kansas City Chiefs, and that is the one concern, but the Receiving corps should be able to find space against this Baltimore Secondary.

This does put some pressure on the Ravens to try and rattle Patrick Mahomes and that is going to be a tough challenge for them against this Kansas City Offensive Line. If the Ravens cannot get to Mahomes, Kansas City should be able to open the season with a strong win and a cover of this line set.

Kansas City have won five of the last six games between these top AFC contenders, including in the Championship Game last season, and the Chiefs could be ready to make an early statement in the Week 1 opener. Lamar Jackson and company cannot be dismissed, especially as they are Coached by John Harbaugh who remains very strong when given time to prepare for an opponent, but Andy Reid is no slouch and the Chiefs are going to be wanting to show they are ready to become a three-peat World Champion.


Week 1 has come around very quickly and a lack of time, with the additional outside factors, means this is a much shorter thread than usual. You can see my Picks from the Week 1 games below with a longer thread to come in Week 2 as the season really begins to get going.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 4 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

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