It has been a relatively low-key start for many teams with some surprises and some real under-performers.
Injuries have already been a major factor and there is a slight feeling of a lack of spark involved in the League, which is something of a surprise.
Week 3 has continued the early season trend of having big underdogs not only covering, but actually winning games outright. In fact, the Cincinnati Bengals defeat to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football meant the biggest underdog of the week has won for a third straight week in succession.
Suffice to say that Survivor Pools will have been decimated.
Speaking of the Bengals, they may be the biggest disappointment so far in the NFL- they came up narrowly short of a big upset of their own at the home of the defending Champions, but the Bengals have been upset by the New England Patriots in Week 1 and then by the Commanders in Week 3 and neither of those two teams have looked as strong when they have played opponents other than Cincinnati.
Injuries have contributed to the poor start made by the San Francisco 49ers, but they should bounce back once healthier. However, that is less likely to happen for the Jacksonville Jaguars who were blown out embarrassingly by the Buffalo Bills and have to be asking serious questions about Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.
Doug Pederson is on the hottest of hot seats and it may not be a big surprise if the Jaguars return from London next month and leave the Head Coach in the United Kingdom.
The Bengals and Jaguars might be the biggest disappointments, but there are teams out there feeling much happier with their starts as they have perhaps surprised those looking in from the outside.
You would have to place the Minnesota Vikings right at the top of that list after their 3-0 start with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, while credit has to be given to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks too. We will learn much more about these unbeaten teams as the weeks progress, although there will be some concern amongst the rest that the Kansas City Chiefs are at 3-0 without really playing well at all.
We will get Week 4 going with a big NFC East game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and the two 1-2 teams in the Division are looking to get back onto the same number of wins as the Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.
Big games are played on Sunday and we have another double-header on Monday Night Football with the second of the two games definitely more appealing for viewing purposes than the Miami-Tennessee game.
The results were a little disappointing in Week 3, but it has been a decent enough start and the selections will be added in this thread.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) have dominated the recent series with the New York Giants (1-2), but this does not look like the same kind of team that has crushed the Giants time after time.
That is not to say that the New York Giants are considerably better than they were, but the win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 means they have matched that one victory that the Dallas Cowboys have had in Week 1.
Since then, the Cowboys have not only lost back to back games, but they have been really poor in those defeats and even the fightback against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday put a gloss on a scoreline that was out of hand early. There is limited time for the team to work on changing things around before this Thursday Night Football game in Week 4 and the back to back losses means there is little momentum behind a team that always has to deal with big expectations.
Mike McCarthy is under immesnse pressure as Head Coach and he needs a big reaction from his players after another blowout at home.
The Cowboys have struggled Offensively and one of the big concerns for the team has to be the Offensive Line play and an inability to really get the run going as they have been known to do in recent years. There will be perhaps more room to run the ball against this New York Giants team that have been given up some big yards on the ground, but it is hard to really trust Dallas from what has been produced and so it may be up to Dak Prescott and the passing game to keep the chains moving with any consistency.
Another problem that the Dallas Offensive Line have faced outside of being able to establish the run is that they have not been able to give Prescott the chance to throw the ball deep down the field. Third and long spots are always tough to convert and the Offensive Line have struggled to stop teams from crashing down around Dak Prescott and that is something that could be in play against this Giants pass rush.
If there is time, Dak Prescott should be able to make plays against this Secondary even if the Dallas Receiving options don't look as strong as previous years. However, the question is about that time that Prescott will have and the New York Giants may have a chance to turn the tables on this NFC East rival.
After losing their opening two games, the New York Giants might have been questioning where they are heading, even if they were unfortunate to lose to the Washington Commanders when being without a Kicker. The victory over the Cleveland Browns as a heavy underdog, the latest to do so in the NFL this season, will have just given the team a boost and that could see them earn another upset.
Losing to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 does not look nearly as bad as it might have felt a couple of weeks ago and the New York Giants will have noted the blueprint to beat the Cowboys. You can expect the team to hand the ball to Devin Singletary and then look for the Offensive Line to open holes up front to expose what has been a huge vulnerability in the Cowboys Defense and keeping Daniel Jones in third and manageable spots would be a huge boost for a struggling Quarter Back.
To be fair to Daniel Jones, he is managing the game a little better in his last two outings and has not thrown an Interception, even if past struggles against the Cowboys will need to be forgotten. Being in third and manageable spots should mean he is not relying on the Offensive Line to give him a lot of time to look down the field, which is important considering their own pass protection struggles.
He has been getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly with the team being in better field position and Daniel Jones has to be really appreciating having Malik Nabers as his top Receiver. Drops had been an issue for the Giants in the last couple of years, but Nabers has shown why he was so highly regarded before the Draft and gives the Giants a real playmaker.
It is obviously difficult to ignore the dominance of the Cowboys in the recent rivalry and six wins in a row will give Dallas belief, even if they have been struggling. Many of those wins have been in blowout fashion too, but the New York Giants look much more capable of keeping this one competitive.
Underdogs have been thriving through the first three weeks of the NFL season, especially those given more than 5 points and that will eventually come back to the mean. Over several years those underdogs are not the strong covering teams that they have been in early 2024, but this looks a game where the home underdog may be able to bark loud enough to perhaps not earn an outright upset, but can stay within the point spread set.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle and were perhaps unfortunate to lose that game in Week 2, but that has been the highlight of the early part of the season for the Cincinnati Bengals (0-3). Home losses to the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders have put this team under early pressure and while there is plenty of time left in this season, the Bengals can ill-afford another defeat.
A big game against another surprising early struggler is coming up in Week 5 against Divisional rival the Baltimore Ravens, so there is some pressure on the Bengals to start turning things around this week.
Joe Burrow ended last season on the IR, but his return was supposed to help the Bengals build on a year in which they narrowly missed the PlayOff.
However, it has been a tough early part of the season for the Quarter Back and injuries have hurt some of the options around him. The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled on both sides of the ball and the manner of the defeat to the Commanders on Monday Night Football would have caused plenty of worry amongst the fanbase.
They are facing the Carolina Panthers (1-2) on the road in Week 4 and not many would have predicted that the NFC South team would have a stronger record than the Bengals going into this game. The decision to move Andy Dalton into the starting lineup ahead of Bryce Young was vindicated with the team looking much more competent Offensively with the veteran at Quarter Back, although it was not a perfect week for the Panthers with news that Adam Thielen has picked up an injury.
Thirty-six points were scored by Carolina last week and that is a far cry from the combined thirteen points scored across their last four games. They had managed to score all thirteen of those points in their opening two losses to the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers and it did feel that the the rest of the players deserved a better chance to try and have success than persisting with Bryce Young.
The young Quarter Back's future is now cloudy, but this game could be a 'down to earth' moment for Andy Dalton, even if he is going to be plenty motivated in facing the team that Drafted him into the NFL.
For all of their issues, the Bengals have still played hard enough Defensively to make some plays and they will be looking to show a lot more than they did last week in the home loss to the Washington Commanders. The Bengals Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and that will be important in this game to make sure Andy Dalton feels he is having to let routes develop before targeting Receivers down the field.
Adam Thielen's absence will hurt all the more if that is the case and this Cincinnati Secondary will feel they can contain the majority of the threats left, even if Diontae Johnson looked much more comfortable catching passes from Dalton. Being behind the chains would potentially see Andy Dalton throwing from pressurised spots, although the Cincinnati pass rush pressure has not been as strong as they would have liked.
Ultimately the direction of this game feels much more dependent on how the Cincinnati Bengals are able to perform Offensively and that is not as clear as perhaps the fans hoped it would be. We have seen moments and some drives where the Bengals look to be getting on track, but Joe Burrow will feel there is still improvement to come from himself, while Tee Higgins should also get better having made his first start in 2024 in Week 3.
Having more success running the ball will certainly help and the Bengals Offensive Line should be able to pave the way for some strong gains on the ground. Keeping the team in third and manageable will make things that much easier for Joe Burrow and the big name Wide Receivers to make plays for the team and will also mean the Quarter Back is not holding onto the ball for too long.
This should be the outcome of the drives when the Bengals have the ball and they can win this game by a wide enough margin to cover the spread.
Backing road favourites is not always ideal, especially not road favourites who are 0-3 and who have lost to two of what people may consider amongst the weakest teams in the NFL. However, the Bengals are in a desperate position and the Panthers might be a touch overrated after winning on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Andy Dalton is going to be massively motivated against his former team, but that alone may not be enough for the Panthers who are perhaps an underdog that would have received a few more points if they had been 0-3 going into Week 4, rather than playing off the back of a win.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: Losing is always going to hurt any professional athlete, but the utter capitulation on Monday Night Football in Week 3 by the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) could lead to a lot of big chances. Trevor Lawrence has not played well enough at Quarter Back, while Head Coach Doug Pederson has to be feeling like his seat has significantly warmed up.
It doesn't help that the Jaguars capitulated at the end of last season to miss out on the post-season. To then open up in the manner they have in 2024, despite the expectations, will have raised so many questions about the Coaching staff as well as a Quarter Back that has just signed a huge contract in the off-season.
Over the next month, the Jaguars will be heading over to London to play their annual international games, but they need some momentum before those games. There is already a feeling of some desperation at play following the latest loss and another on Sunday may already have the owner and General Manager wondering whether changes should be made immediately.
This is a big Divisional game for the Jaguars, but also an important one for the Houston Texans (2-1) who were thoroughly outplayed in their Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Losing against a non-Conference opponent should not be a major obstacle for the Texans to overcome and a second Divisional win will already be placing Houston in a position to return to the post-season.
CJ Stroud struggled at Quarter Back last week, but this looks to be a much more comfortable match up for the second year starter.
While the Minnesota Vikings have a Defensive unit playing at an extremely high level, the Jacksonville Jaguars have really been struggling and this Houston team has plenty of top Receiving talent to make the big plays for CJ Stroud.
Joe Mixon could be missing again and that may mean Houston are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, although establishing the run might be challenging even if the Running Back is available. The Jaguars Defensive Line has been the strength of the team on that side of the ball, although even being able to contain the threat on the ground has not made it much easier to make stops.
They could not really rattle a dual-threat Quarter Back on Monday Night Football and the Jaguars may not be able to take advantage of some of the protection issues that the Houston Texans have had early in this season. There simply has not been enough pass rush pressure produced by the Jaguars and giving CJ Stroud will expose a Secondary that has not been able to make the big plays needed to turn momentum in their favour.
Jacksonville did largely contain the threat posed by the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but this may be tougher after the miserable performance in Week 3. There will be some professional pride at play, but that may not be enough against a motivated Divisional rival playing after a blowout loss of their own.
Instead the focus will be on Trevor Lawrence and whether he can play better than what he has shown so far this season- the poor run has actually gone much further for the Quarter Back, and so it is hard to keep faith in Lawrence, even if the Jaguars will have to following the big contract extension handed to him.
A key for the team will be establishing the ground game and then hoping they can extend drives and keep the Houston Offense cooling off on the sidelines. The Jaguars were not able to stick with the plan against the Buffalo Bills after finding themselves in a big, early hole, and becoming one-dimensional is a surefire way to lose a game.
While this one is close, the Jaguars have to lean on the Offensive Line, although they are going up against a Houston team that will be looking to remind everyone that they are much better than what they showed against Sam Darnold and the Vikings. Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is key and the concern for the Jaguars is that they will have to move away from the ground attack sooner than they would like.
If that is the case, Trevor Lawrence has a tough match up in front of him- throwing from in front of the chains will give him a chance, but if Lawrence is in third and long spots, it could be a long day for him. His passing numbers have simply not been there because the Offensive Line have afforded Trevor Lawrence very little time when he has dropped back to throw the ball and time is not going to be easy to find against this Houston pass rush.
Pressure up front has certainly made it easier for the Secondary to make plays and Houston may feel they can win the turnover battle this week, which in turn could lead to a big win.
Playing a Divisional rival will provide motivation enough, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will not have forgotten losing at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023. They did win a blowout on the road earlier in the season as a big underdog, but this time it is the Houston Texans who look primed for a bounce back and a strong win as the home favourite.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFC North looks a very strong Division this season, even if the Chicago Bears have perhaps not performed as some would have expected from a dark horse. It is still early in the season as far as the Bears are concerned, especially at 1-2, but the rest of the Division all having winning records through three games and that will make these Divisional games feel that much more important.
If you had predicted one of the NFC North teams to be at 3-0, it would not have been the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) who have overachieved compared to pre-season expectations. After trading away Kirk Cousins, some felt the Vikings were going to head through a transitional season with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been far from the case within.
Wins over the New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans have been impressive, especially the manner in which the Vikings have won those games. Now they have to travel to the Green Bay Packers (2-1), a team who have bounced back from losing in Week 1 and without Jordan Love at Quarter Back.
There had been a fear that Love was going to miss significant time, but he was hoping to play in Week 3 and is again putting in time in practice to come back and lead the Green Bay Packers. The Coaching staff are unlikely to want to take too many risks with the face of the franchise though and suffice to say that Malik Willis has given the team no reason to need to rush back Jordan Love.
A win over the Indianapolis Colts before another against a team from the AFC South, this time in a revenge setting against the Tennessee Titans, has pushed Green Bay above 0.500 and Willis is looking like a competent player at this level. That was far from the case in Tennessee, but that also is something that the Packers Coaching team deserve a lot of credit for.
In giving him praise, it is hard to ignore the fact that Malik Willis will be facing his toughest test early in this Green Bay career.
He has contributed to what has been a strong Green Bay rushing attack, but that part of their Offensive game plan is going to be significantly tested by this Minnesota Vikings team. So far this season, the Vikings Defensive Line have only allowed 3.5 yards per carry and they have been able to get the better of a couple of decent Offenses, even if the 49ers were banged up in Week 2.
Making Malik Willis earn the yards through the air is going to be the key for the Minnesota Vikings with the Packers passing game a little rusty without Jordan Love. Again, credit has to be given to Willis for avoiding big mistakes and just doing what he needs to in order to keep the chains moving, but that task is going to be much more difficult if the Packers are playing from third and long spots.
There is something similar happening when the Minnesota Vikings have the ball- they are going to want to run the ball and make sure Sam Darnold is not in a position where he feels he needs to really push the boat out. So far that has not only been a good game plan, but a really strong one with the Vikings playing really well on this side of the ball.
It is a revenge game for Aaron Jones who left Green Bay to join Minnesota ahead of the 2024 season and he has promised to make the Lambeau Leap if he scores on Sunday.
You have to expect Jones and the Vikings to be able to have more consistency establishing the run when facing a Green Bay Defensive Line that has given up some big gains on the ground. This will be exactly what Sam Darnold will need, especially as the Quarter Back is playing through the pain at this moment.
Sacks could be a problem for Darnold whenever he is in obvious passing Downs, but credit has to be given to him for making sure he is avoiding big mistakes and doing what is needed to ensure Minnesota score enough points to win games. This Green Bay Secondary have given up a fair few yards in the air, but they have also created turnovers and that has to be something that Darnold needs to be aware of and look to avoid at all costs.
This has the makings of a really fun game and another chance to learn something about this Minnesota Vikings team.
No one outside of their own building would have predicted this start, although they do have to avoid being distracted by a Week 5 game in London. That is against former Packers Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets so plenty of fans will be anticipating the game, but this is the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau and that should be motivation enough.
The Vikings did win here as a narrow favourite last season, but this time they are capable of making use of the points being given to them to earn a road cover.
MY PICKS: New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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