An expanded College Football PlayOff is being played for the first time at the end of the 2024 season and so there is some uncertainty as to how things will shake up and what the PlayOff Committee will be looking for in terms of records.
The main feeling is that they will be willing to forgive a loss, but two losses might be much more difficult to ignore.
After results in Week 2, the likes of Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Michigan Wolverines have seen their scope for error narrow significantly. Out of the two teams, Notre Dame will definitely be feeling more of the pressure having lost to an opponent that had been given a four Touchdown start on the handicap.
Michigan's home blowout loss to the Texas Longhorns will hurt, but if Texas are as good as advertised, that could be a defeat that does not hurt the defending Champions as much as it might have done in previous years.
Having a bit more room for error does not mean teams are going to be less focused though and this is a Week 3 slate of games where some of the best teams will be looking to make statements before moving into Conference play. Big games are a bit more regular than previously at this time of the season and there are some 'rivalry games' to play as those lower down the Rankings look to play spoiler and this should be another good week of College Football to be played through Saturday.
A good return in Week 1 was followed by a disappointing Week 2.
It is a little frustrating, but at this stage of the season, teams are figuring things out and so are we as fans.
The hope is that a bounce back Week 3 can be found to get things back on track with the selections below.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick: The new College Football PlayOff format was always going to leave a little more room for error than we have seen previously, while the Power 5 dropping into the Power 4 Conferences also makes it easier to bounce back from a defeat.
With that in mind, two unbeaten teams are preparing for a big non-Conference showdown and both the Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) and Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) will be targeting a spot in the PlayOff come the end of the season.
A quick look at the upcoming games for both of these teams will underline the importance of maintaining the strong starts, although both can focus on this game knowing they are about to embark on a Bye Week to prepare for big tests. For the Alabama Crimson Tide that big test is another game against the Georgia Bulldogs, while the Wisconsin Badgers will be heading out on the road to face the USC Trojans, a new member of the Big Ten as Conference play gets underway for both teams.
The Nick Saban era may be over at Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have looked more impressive than the Badgers early in the season. However, this is a true road game and that is going be the first significant test faced by new Head Coach Kalen DeBoer and he will be well aware as to how quickly the knives will sharpen if the Crimson Tide are not able to reach the levels of standard set in the Saban era.
A talented team has been left for DeBoer and Alabama have a Quarter Back with a lot of experience in Jalen Milroe, especially after going through the ups and downs of 2023. The strong end to the season shows what Milroe is about, but overcoming the negatives is probably a bigger part of his development and the Quarter Back will be ready to show how far he has come against the best Defensive unit faced so far this season.
96 years have passed since Alabama last played in Madison, but they will be heading to town with a good looking Offensive Line and that is going to be key to their Offensive successes. In previous years the Badgers Defensive Line will have felt they can compete with any Offensive Line they face, but the two weaker opponents faced have managed to secure 4 yards per carry and the Crimson Tide will be looking to surpass that number.
Moving the ball ahead of the chains will make things that much more comfortable for Jalen Milroe, especially if the crowd noise can be taken out of the occasion and Alabama should believe they can have success on this side of the ball.
They will also feel pretty good Defensively as Wisconsin continue to try and find the consistency behind new Quarter Back Tyler Van Dyke.
There was a lot of excitement about bringing Van Dyke in as a transfer from the Miami Hurricanes, but he has not exactly been lighting things up through the first two games and this is going to be a huge step up in terms of the quality of Defensive unit he is facing. Tyler Van Dyke is yet to throw an Interception, but he has only a single Touchdown pass and it will become difficult for the Quarter Back if the Badgers are to become a little one-dimensional.
Running the ball against the Crimson Tide is not going to be easy for a Badgers Offensive Line which has only opened the door for 4.2 yards per carry against much lesser opponents. There is always a turnover with teams of the quality of Alabama as players move onto the NFL, but this Defensive Line looks to be coming together nicely and the Crimson Tide may be able to rattle Tyler Van Dyke when chasing him from third and long spots.
Winning on the road is never easy, especially not against other Power 4 Conference teams, but Alabama look very good and they can make a real statement ahead of the latest big clash with the Georgia Bulldogs. Having a Bye Week means Alabama can focus and they simply look much stronger than this Wisconsin Badgers team.
Once they can just become a little accustomed to the noise and begin to take the crowd out of things, Alabama should be able to pull away behind a strong Defensive effort. The only concern is that the Offense can be a little hit or miss, but Alabama should be able to establish the run and that should just open things up for Jalen Milroe to show he is ready for another outing against the impressive Bulldogs Defensive unit.
Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: The Pac-12 was left devastated after ten of the schools decided to move on, but there has to be some credit given to the likes of the Oregon State Beavers (2-0) and the Oregon Ducks (2-0) in insisting that their rivalry was not going to fall by the wayside. This may be the first non-Conference meeting between the Beavers and Ducks in a little over sixty years, but they will be playing for the 128th time and that is important to fans of both schools.
Some things have changed now that Oregon State remain a member of the Pac-12, which has just added four schools to their League, while the Oregon Ducks are now a Big Ten Conference member. One of those is that this is the earliest this rivalry game will have ever been played, while it is the first time the Beavers and Ducks are playing before November since 1945.
In saying all that, make no mistake this game still matters plenty as the two unbeaten teams meet in Week 3 of the College Football season.
Oregon will be meeting a familiar name when they open their Conference play in two weeks time, but the focus is going to be on this one with an upcoming Bye Week meaning there are no distractions. The Ducks have not really impressed through their first two wins, but Head Coach Dan Lanning may also have been glad to see some of the character of his players to find a way to put wins on the board.
Dillon Gabriel does have to carry some big expectations on his shoulders and Oregon have already dropped a few places in the Rankings despite winning both games. One of the keys for Gabriel is that the Ducks Offensive Line is able to come together and find a way to open up consistent running lanes, although that is going to be challenging this week against this Beavers Defensive Line which has given up just 3 yards per carry.
They came into the season believing the Defensive unit is the real strength of the team and Oregon State have not let anyone down on this side of the ball. They will feel they can clamp down on the run in this one, and that should allow a fierce pass rush to pin back their ears and get after Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back.
One of the other early issues with the Oregon Offensive Line has been the struggles to protect Gabriel when he drops back to throw and this is something that the Beavers can exploit as they look to come through as the big home underdog.
Controlling the clock will also be key for the Oregon State Beavers and you have to expect to see a lot of handoffs in this one, especially with the new look Oregon Defensive Line struggling to stop the run. Despite the level of opponent faced, Oregon have allowed 5.1 yards per carry and the Oregon State Beavers will feel they have the power up front to bully their rivals and make sure they stay in front of the chains.
Over the coming years, Oregon State's Offensive identity may change, but the power football approach looks like it could work in this rivalry game. New Head Coach Trent Bray has stated the importance of being able to run the ball and his Beavers team will certainly believe they can get the better of the Ducks Defensive Line to ensure they are throwing the ball out of manageable distance.
It should also be important to negate the Oregon pass rush and give Quarter Back Gevani McCoy an opportunity to make plays with his arm. Moving up from the FCS level is always going to be challenging, so McCoy will likely lean on the running game as the Beavers look for the upset.
All in all it feels like a big spread, especially if the Beavers can play up to the level expected Defensively. The Ducks should have the qualities to win with the experience at Quarter Back, but they have been beaten in their last two road games at Oregon State and it would be a real surprise if the road team is able to produce a blowout on the day.
The favourite has covered in three in a row in this rivalry series, including Oregon State winning as a home favourite two years ago, but this time the Beavers can make use of a three score handicap lead to ensure they remain competitive.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Florida Gators Pick: The Week 1 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish certainly did not age well for the Texas A&M Aggies (1-1), but new Head Coach Mike Elko will be given time at the helm after back to back winning seasons with the Duke Blue Devils. He will know Texas A&M well and the demands this school have after being a Defensive Co-Ordinator here under Jimbo Fisher who was dismissed last year.
Time will be on his side, but the same cannot be said for the Head Coach prowling the other sideline.
Billy Napier had a strong end to his tenure as Head Coach of the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, but back to back losing seasons with the Florida Gators (1-1) has put him on the hot seat. A Week 1 blowout defeat to in-State rivals Miami Hurricanes has only increased the pressure on Napier and an opening loss in Conference play may already have Florida making moves to identify a replacement.
Much is going to depend on the big Quarter Back decision coming up for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators.
Graham Mertz is the experienced Quarter Back, but did not excel in the loss to the Hurricanes before having to miss Week 2 with a concussion. In his place, DJ Lagway, the freshman, had 456 passing yards and 3 Touchdowns in the blowout win over Samford, albeit an overmatched opponent.
Fans won't care though and going back to Mertz and losing may prove to be enough is enough as far as the Billy Napier era as Head Coach goes. That is where the pressure is on the Head Coach to make the right decision as the SEC play gets underway, especially as whoever is playing at Quarter Back is going up against a decent Texas A&M Secondary.
The experience that the Aggies now have in the Secondary has helped, but the Gators may be encouraged to lean on the running game to just alleviate pressure on their Quarter Back, whoever gets the call. That will feel especially the case if they do go with the inexperience of Lagway, but there is a real hope that the Gators Offensive Line can help establish the run against an Aggies line that is allowing 5.2 yards per carry.
It has been a surprising underperformance early in the season and the lack of Sacks is a real problem for Texas A&M to address. Doing that here will be tough and the home underdog can certainly produce enough on this side of the ball to feel they can be very competitive.
The really poor Defensive efforts at the end of last season has sparked big moves in the off-season for the Florida Gators and there are some encouraging signs early in 2023. Everything begins up front and it will be strength vs strength with the Aggies trying to establish the run against what has looked a much better Gators Defensive Line.
It is a small sample of just two games and the Gators will feel this is the best run blocking Offensive Line they will have seen early in 2024, but the signs are encouraging enough. Containing the run, or at least containing it as far as possible, will force the Aggies to try and find the pass protection for Connor Weigman, who struggled massively in the defeat to the Fighting Irish.
This time Weigman will be throwing into a Secondary that has allowed some big yards through the air, but he will have to deal with the pass rush pressure that the Gators have been able to bring. Any time he is in third and long, Florida will feel they can rattle this Quarter Back and try and force a mistake that proved to be costly for the Aggies in the defeat to Notre Dame.
Games between these SEC rivals have been competitive and the last three have seen the underdog cover each time.
In fact the underdog has won all three of those games outright, including a Florida blowout on the road two seasons ago when they last met. That snapped a two game losing run in the series and having more than a key number of points in this one certainly makes the home underdog look the play.
Even a Field Goal loss would lead to a winning for the Pick and the feeling is that the Florida Gators can just cool down the hot seat under Billy Napier with strong play in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
UTSA Roadrunners @ Texas Longhorns Pick: Backing a team to cover a very big spread after a statement producing win is not ideal, but the Texas Longhorns (2-0) will want to build momentum towards their debut game in the SEC. Another non-Conference opponent is on deck so the Longhorns can return home without being too distracted having crushed the defending National Champions on the road in Week 2.
That comes after an impressive Week 1 performance and there will be plenty of fans out there that are highly encouraged by the balance shown by the Longhorns through two games. It is only two games, but beating up the Colorado State Rams and Michigan Wolverines will have gotten others to take notice and this is a huge test for the USTA Roadrunners (1-1).
Head Coach Jeff Traylor has done a fine job with the USTA Roadrunners and has compiled a 39-14 record at the helm over the last four years. They finished a really respectable third in the American Athletic Conference in 2023 having put together a 7-1 Conference record and the Roadrunners only just missed out on a third year in a row with double digit wins.
The reality in 2024 is that this going to be a tough season for USTA having lost so many key parts of the Offensive unit that impressed in 2023, while top players on the Defensive side of the ball also departed. The blowout loss to the Texas State Bobcats might just have served as a timely reminder of the challenges this team is going to face across the next few months and it might be a really tough day in the office for all in Week 3.
Inexperienced Quarter Back play is going to make things tough for the Roadrunners, while the Offensive Line is using a number of new faces and that has shown already. Little running room has been found for the most experienced players on this side of the ball and the USTA Offensive Line is going to find it very tough to push this Longhorns Defensive Line around.
It means pressure on either Owen McCown or Eddie Lee Marburger at Quarter Back, especially with a pocket that has been collapsing around them. For all of the early Texas successes, Sacks have not been forthcoming, but that could be resolved this week by keeping the Roadrunners in third and long spots and forcing the young Quarter Backs to hold onto the ball longer than they would want.
Decent yards have been piled up through the air by the Roadrunners, but those have been against much weaker units than the one they face this week. Once the backups come into the game, USTA may have more success throwing the ball, but even then the Longhorns are going to be a threat to turn the ball over as they look to back up the big win in The Big House.
The one uncertainty for the Texas Longhorns coming into the season was whether it would take Quarter Back Quinn Ewers a bit of time to find the chemistry with the Receivers that arrived in the transfer portal. One of the leading contenders for the Heisman Trophy, Quinn Ewers has shown he is very confident in his new playmakers, while the experienced Offensive Line will give their Quarter Back all of the time he needs.
We should see another big game from Ewers, while the Longhorns Offensive Line should also be able to find some seams up front for the running game to be established. Early form produced by the Roadrunners Defensive Line is encouraging, but facing the Texas Longhorns is a challenge like they have not been faced with and that should see the home team and one of the leading National Championship contenders dominate.
Even when Quinn Ewers is pulled from the game, Archie Manning can come in and keep the chains moving and it may lead to a huge win for the Longhorns.
This is a spread that will always allow the opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the Longhorns should be focused after being pushed by the Roadrunners two years ago in a 21 point win. In 2024, the Longhorns look stronger and the step backwards taken by the UTSA Roadrunners could lead to a much more convincing victory for Texas.
Colorado Buffaloes @ Colorado State Rams Pick: Some may feel that the Colorado Buffaloes (1-1) receive far too much attention for a team that has lost seven of their last eight games. The big loss at the Nebraska Cornhuskers dropped the Buffaloes to 1-1 last week, but as long as their Head Coach is Deion Sanders, people are going to be interested.
There are some genuine NFL stars in the making on the roster, but the second year in charge of the Buffaloes is still going to be a work in progress for the Head Coach. They finished with a 4-8 record in his first season and a 1-8 record in the Pac-12, while the move to the Big 12 is going present plenty of challenges of its own.
The Baylor Bears will be the first Conference opponent for the Buffaloes in Week 4, but this is a rivalry game and there were plenty of headlines made before the teams met in 2023.
In recent years, games between the Buffaloes and the Colorado State Rams (1-1) have been played away from the home of the latter. This time they will be hosting this rivalry game for the first time in almost thirty years and the Rams will not have forgotten the very close defeat to Colorado from last year.
A blowout loss to the Texas Longhorns in Week 1 would have stung, but the Longhorns look like a potential National Champion and the Colorado State Rams are not playing a team of that level in this rivalry. Bouncing back with a win in Week 2 will have been a jolt of confidence for the players, and it can only be a good thing that the Rams have as much experience on the Offensive side of the ball.
Running the ball is going to be important to this Colorado State team and the overall experience on the Offensive side of the ball is going to be important as the Rams look to control the clock. They will note that the Buffaloes Secondary can be attacked and being in front of the chains will give the Rams an opportunity to take a few more risks when going at Colorado.
There is also plenty of experience on the Colorado State Defense, which is important having faced the Buffaloes last year and knowing a bit more about what to expect. They are going up against a couple of Colorado players that are likely to be very high First Round NFL Draft Picks in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, who continues to play both sides of the ball.
Shedeur Sanders has the talent to play at the next level, but the Quarter Back can only be as good as the Offensive Line and he needs to be protected. The Buffaloes Offensive Line have struggled to open up running lanes, which means they are under pressure when it comes to the pass protection from obvious passing down and distance.
There is no doubt that the Offensive Line is struggling, but the question for the Colorado State Rams is whether they can find the pass rush to rattle Sanders at Quarter Back. His numbers are decent considering he is throwing under duress almost every time he drops back, but neither Head Coach nor Quarter Back wants to take 56 Sacks like they did in 2023.
The start is not very encouraging, but if Sanders is given any time, he should be able to make plays against this Rams Secondary. That is perhaps the reason the Buffaloes have been set as the road favourites, but Colorado State may just feel their own experienced group on both sides of the ball can still be a big factor.
Last season the rivalry game was very closely contested and this is looking like it will be another one.
You cannot be overly excited about backing the Colorado Buffaloes to cover this many points when you think of their recent run of results and with the Colorado State Rams playing with revenge on their mind. The blowout loss to the Longhorns will have hurt, but the Colorado State Rams are not facing an opponent of that level and they can keep this one very competitive throughout with every chance of securing the upset outright.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: SEC play gets underway for the Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) in Week 3 of the 2024 season and this is clearly a team with plenty to prove. One defeat prevented them from earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff last season and the Bulldogs look like a team that wants to prove it was a mistake to do that and stop this season from winning a third National Championship in succession.
This is a team that has looked strong on both sides of the ball and the Georgia Bulldogs have really enjoyed facing the Kentucky Wildcats (1-1) in recent years.
The Wildcats have already begun Conference play, but the embarrassing defeat to the South Carolina Gamecocks will have dented confidence. Losing by 25 points is tough in any situation, but Kentucky had been almost a double digit favourite on the spread markets, but fell way below par on the day.
Motivation to beat one of the top teams in the Conference and a leading National Championship contender should serve as inspiration for the Wildcats, but this is a very tough game for the hosts. They are going to be led at the Quarter Back position by Brock Vandagriff, a former Georgia Bulldogs player who transferred to Kentucky having failed to make the grade with Georgia.
That is going to give the Quarter Back plenty of reason to find his best football, but it has been a struggle for Vandagriff through the first two games. He really had a hard time against the Gamecocks in Week 2, and this is going to be a considerably tougher challenge against a team that has given up just SIX points all season.
One of the big problems that many felt the Wildcats would face this season was the Line work on both sides of the ball. We have seen the issues with the Offensive Line that has struggled to get their run blocking together, while offering Brock Vandagriff little protection and time in the pocket when the Quarter Back has dropped back to throw the ball.
Neither team that has played Georgia have been able to put up more than 142 passing yards and the Bulldogs are likely going to have their way with one of their former team-mates. Brock Vandagriff will be well aware of the kind of talent that will step up for Georgia this season and it could be another tough day in the office for a Quarter Back who had been recruited in College Football as a top prospect.
The key for the Wildcats is going to be how well their Defensive unit can stand up to this Georgia Offense.
The Defensive Line is where things all start for the Wildcats and they have been playing the run well in the firs two games, although there is also going to be a huge amount of respect for the team they are facing in Week 3. The experience of the Georgia Offensive Line could be key in helping the team at least keep Carson Beck and the Bulldogs in third and manageable spots on the field and that should give the favourite an edge.
This experience is also key in dealing with the Wildcats pass rush, while Carson Beck is considered one of the top NFL Draft options at Quarter Back. His decision to return to the Georgia Bulldogs was something of a surprise, but Beck is clearly focused and has already thrown 7 Touchdown passes.
Facing this Kentucky Secondary will not be easy, but Georgia have plenty of top play-making options for Carson Beck to target.
With a dominant record against the Wildcats, Georgia may come through this tough opening SEC road test with a very big win. They are capable of scoring plenty of their own points, but the importance as far as the spread is concerned is whether Kentucky can score enough points to remain in touch, which feels unlikely.
A Quarter Back with something to prove to a former team does make the Wildcats perhaps a little more dangerous, but they need to come on leaps and bounds from what we have seen so far this season. It could happen, but recent history between these SEC teams makes it unlikely and the Bulldogs can produce another big win before all focus turns to the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon State Beavers + 16 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Florida Gators + 4 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 35.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Colorado State Rams + 7 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 20.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
North Texas Mean Green + 10 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Ole Miss Rebels - 20.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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