Olympic Tennis Day 9 Picks 2021 (August 1st)

The Tokyo Olympics are concluded for the Tennis tournament on Sunday with the Men's Gold Medal match and I do think it has the potential of being a good one.

Karen Khachanov + 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: The Gold Medal has been decided in the Women's event and the Bronze Medal in both the Women's and Men's event was also played on Saturday. That leaves the Sunday clear for the Men's Gold Medal match between Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov as they look to secure the biggest title of their careers which could spark more to come at Grand Slam level.

The challenge in the Grand Slams is different in the best of five set format, but this Gold Medal match has changed format back into the best of the three set format. That should aid both Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov, although the pressure of winning a major title is something they will be relatively unfamiliar with.

Alexander Zverev has experienced playing in a US Open Final and that should help him massively in the Gold Medal match. He did blow a strong opportunity to win that Slam last year, but the German is coming off a confidence boosting win over the World Number 1 and he is going to head into the Final as a significant favourite.

The tournament has been a really strong one for Alexander Zverev and that will further the belief in the player that he can win this Gold Medal and perhaps use it to spark further success on the Tour. Alexander Zverev's serve is a big weapon, but the conditions have suited him in Tokyo when it comes to the return and that makes him very dangerous.

However, I don't think you can draw a line through the chances of Karen Khachanov who had a very strong win in the Semi Final and looks to be at home in the conditions himself. He has spent longer on the court than Alexander Zverev, but Karen Khachanov has had a couple of days off and the comfortable win in the Semi Final will have given him ample time to refresh and get ready for the biggest match of his career.

Like Zverev, Karen Khachanov has been really strong behind his serve and I think that gives him a chance of the upset. The Russian has also been impressive on the return and his head to head with Alexander Zverev will certainly offer further encouragement.

It has been a couple of years since these players last met on the professional Tour, but Karen Khachanov has won the last two matches to pull himself back to 2-2 against Alexander Zverev. Both those wins have come on a faster hard court than the one that they will be playing on in Tokyo, but they are two wins that will give Karen Khachanov a lot of belief in his ability to knock off the favourite.

Over their three previous hard court matches, Karen Khachanov has held in 88% of service games played against Alexander Zverev compared with the 64% mark of the latter. Karen Khachanov has dominated the break points created in the last two matches between the pair and I do think the Russian can be backed with a start to at least keep this one close.

I think he can take a set which would give him the chance of the cover and Karen Khachanov is worth siding with in this Gold Medal match before all the players move across to North America for preparation towards the US Open.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov + 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Game: 25-18, + 4.06 Units (88 Units Staked, + 4.61% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (July 31st)

The Tokyo Olympics are down to the Medal matches for those taking part in the Tennis event and the majority of the players involved have likely began their move across to North America where the build up to the US Open has begun.

Most won't likely take part in events listed to begin over the next few days, but Rafael Nadal is back as he travels to Washington for the first time.

Those are the 'weakest' events left before the run to the US Open with back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati played back to back in the middle of August. We should begin to get some insight into how the US Open may shake out, but for now the focus is on the Olympics and handing out the Medals across the next two days.

Elena Rybakina - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: The Bronze Medal match in the Women's Tennis Olympic tournament will be played before the Gold Medal match and it is a strange situation for the players competing. Every other tournament they would have played would have been over as soon as the Semi Final match points went against them, but Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina have to return to the court two days after those defeats to play this Bronze Medal match.

The mindset can be quite difficult to determine when you think of the normality of the situation for the players off a defeat. Elena Rybakina has to be feeling the Semi Final loss a little more than Elina Svitolina because the Kazakhstan player may believe that one or two points cost her the match in a very close encounter. The Elina Svitolina defeat was much more straight-forward and I do wonder if the early exploits in the tournament have caught up with a player who may not have spent as much time on the court as she would have liked in the lead up to the Olympic Games.

Elina Svitolina has only recently married Gael Monfils and that may have taken her focus from the tennis so the run in Tokyo is something of a surprise. Even more so when you think of the inconsistent performances Svitolina has produced over the last twelve months and she has not really played at a very high level in the tournament, but has managed to get through to the Bronze Medal match by playing the big points better than her opponents have been able to do.

I do think she is going to have to improve dramatically from the Semi Final level if she is going to beat Elena Rybakina who had breezed through her first four matches before losing a break advantage in the final set of her Semi Final defeat to Belinda Bencic. The Rybakina serve has been a big weapon for her throughout this tournament and she has found a consistency on the return of serve which may just give the younger player an edge as she looks to Medal.

Elina Svitolina's serve is much more erratic and I do think it is a vulnerable part of her game which has prevented her kicking on and winning a Grand Slam. While she has won four matches here, the Ukrainian has not really been dominant on the return of serve either and I do think Elena Rybakina will get the better of her as long as the almost three hour Semi Final has not taken too much from her mentally and emotionally.

Before that match, Elena Rybakina has not really spent a lot of time on the court compared with Elina Svitolina who had multiple matches being played that lasted more than two hours on the court. She looked a little drained in the Semi Final defeat to Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina beat Elina Svitolina last month on a grass court when her serve was the key difference.

The hard court numbers produced by both players have been very similar over the last twelve months, but Elena Rybakina has been performing at a much better level in this tournament and I think she can conclude it with a Bronze Medal.

Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Over the last three years it has become clear that there isn't a dominant player on the WTA Tour and that has meant the big tournaments have been much more open for all who take part. It has led to a number of first time Grand Slam Champions and the Olympic Games five years ago saw Monica Puig win a Gold Medal.

Naomi Osaka was the favourite to win the Gold Medal this time around along with World Number 1 Ashleigh Barty, but both exited the tournament relatively early. Even then, you would be hard pressed to find too many people who would have tipped up Marketa Vondrousova versus Belinda Bencic in the Gold Medal match and this is easily going to be the biggest tournament won by either of these players.

It does mean there will be a new kind of pressure to deal with, but Marketa Vondrousova may be slightly better placed to deal with that. The Czech youngster reached the French Open Final in 2019 and so will know what it takes to perform in an environment like this one which may be a slight edge over Belinda Bencic who has not been beyond the Fourth Round at three of the four Grand Slams played and her best effort being one Semi Final run at the US Open a little under two years ago.

There is little doubt that Marketa Vondrousova has played the stronger tennis to this point of the tournament too after a difficult opening match. She has taken full advantage of using a Protected Ranking to enter the draw when her current World Ranking would not have been good enough to represent a loaded Czech Republic team, and Marketa Vondrousova's numbers have seen her consistently out-perform Belinda Bencic.

The Swiss player came through an incredibly tough Semi Final against Elena Rybakina, but Belinda Bencic was a little fortunate on the day having produced fewer break points than her opponent. It was a really long match too and you do have to wonder if that has sapped some of the energy she is going to need to challenge Marketa Vondrousova who has won their sole previous match, also on a hard court.

It was a victory in a tough three setter, but Marketa Vondrousova earned three times as many break points as Belinda Bencic and she has won more than 50% of return points in each of her last four matches. That is incredibly dangerous for Belinda Bencic who gave up 16 break points in her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina and who has been struggling to earn easy service games in her last three matches.

Belinda Bencic is capable in her return game, but it has been a relative weakness in her performances on the hard courts in recent seasons. I think that will be the case in this Gold Medal match and I think Marketa Vondrousova will have enough to come through with the victory and the cover of this handicap mark.

Pablo Carreno Busta + 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: In normal circumstances, Novak Djokovic will be a player who doesn't spend a lot of time playing Doubles Tennis alongside his Singles commitments and certainly not at a major event. However, a proud Serb wanted to represent his nation to the fullest of his abilities at the Olympic Games and that has meant Novak Djokovic took part in the Mixed Doubles as well as the Singles tournament in Tokyo.

Some of that may have caught up with him as he was beaten in three sets in the Semi Final of the Singles tournament and later followed up with a straight sets defeat in the Mixed Doubles.

The dream of a Golden Slam have thus ended in the defeat to Alexander Zverev and now Novak Djokovic will instead be contesting the Bronze Medal match for the third time. He won that Medal in 2008 and was then beaten to finish without a Medal in London in 2012, while Novak Djokovic will also be dealing with the disappointment of losing his opportunity to win a Gold Medal.

It may not be his last chance to do that, but in three years time you would expect Novak Djokovic to not be as strong as he is right now. With the best opportunity now behind him, I do wonder what kind of motivation Novak Djokovic can have in this Bronze Medal match after looking completely exhausted by the end of his match with Alexander Zverev.

That has to be encouraging for Pablo Carreno Busta after the Spaniard was convincingly beaten in the first Semi Final against Karen Khachanov despite going into the match as the favourite. Winning a Medal would be a major achievement for Carreno Busta so I expect him to come out with a little more energy than Novak Djokovic, while Pablo Carreno Busta has to think about trying to extend the rallies and see whether a tired World Number 1 can really find the extra energy needed to win a Medal that he would not have been targeting before the tournament began.

Novak Djokovic is clearly the better hard court player and he has had the better tournament all around compared with Pablo Carreno Busta. The latter may need something like a repeat of their famous match at the US Open last year when Novak Djokovic was Defaulted after knocking a ball to the back of the court which hit a Line Judge.

However, I do think Novak Djokovic may be more focused on the other Bronze Medal match he is competing in on Saturday. Winning in the Mixed Doubles as a part of a team will be more appealing to a player that has a Singles Bronze Medal at home already and that should give Pablo Carreno Busta a chance for the upset.

Overall it certainly makes it feel like the underdog can keep this close with the amount of games being given to him. Novak Djokovic may still dig in and show his class in the victory, but I can see him coasting at times to preserve some energy and it may give Pablo Carreno Busta an opportunity to at least keep things close on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 23-17, + 2.96 Units (82 Units Staked, + 3.61% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 7 Picks 2021 (July 30th)

We are down to the business end of the Tokyo Olympics as far as the Tennis tournament goes and over the weekend the Medals will be handed out.

The Women's Gold and Bronze Medal matches have been put together, while the Men's line up will be completed on Friday.

Karen Khachanov v Pablo Carreno Busta: Three of the four players left in the Men's draw are going to be taking home a Medal from the Olympic Games, but first they get to play for the opportunity to guarantee a Medal. The first Semi Final in Tokyo sees two players who have flown under the radar make their way through the bottom half of the draw and you would have to say that the winner of this Semi Final is likely going to head into the Gold Medal match as a significant underdog.

That is a worry for another day for Karen Khachanov and Pablo Carreno Busta as they look to take their place in the Final on Sunday and both players will feel pretty good about their chances having worked their way through four matches here.

Karen Khachanov has backed up a strong performance at Wimbledon and he is a very confident hard court player, although the relatively slower conditions in Tokyo are perhaps going to favour Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has previously reached the US Open Semi Final and is a more confident hard court player than some may assume because of his nationality, but Pablo Carreno Busta has shown time and again that he can't be underestimated on this surface.

His numbers are far from eye-catching, but you have to credit Pablo Carreno Busta for being able to play his best tennis at critical points within matches. Pablo Carreno Busta is making full use of his serve this week and his win over Daniil Medvedev in the Quarter Final was particularly impressive, although the margins have been tight and that is going to be encouraging for the next Russian he is going to face in this tournament.

A huge amount of time has been spent on court by Karen Khachanov over the last two Rounds and it has been incredibly hot in Tokyo which does make you wonder if it is going to be a telling factor in this Semi Final. However, Pablo Carreno Busta has been forced to dig plenty deep in his own matches and he is now going to have to face up to the Karen Khachanov serve which has been a huge part of the successes the Russian player has had in the event.

Karen Khachanov has been serving pretty big throughout the tournament and that is huge for him if he is going to reach the Gold Medal match. It has helped him get his teeth into the return games and I think it may give Khachanov the slightest of advantages in this match.

Pablo Carreno Busta won their sole meeting in 2021, although that came on a clay court and that may be a surface in which the Spaniard would be favoured. The last two hard court matches have been won by Karen Khachanov though and he has held 84% of the service games played against Pablo Carreno Busta compared with an 80% mark for the latter.

Last year Karen Khachanov beat Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets in Cincinnati, but that is a much faster surface than the one they have seemingly been playing on in Tokyo. I honestly don't think there will be much between the players, but Karen Khachanov has been producing the higher level at this tournament of the two and having the confidence of knowing he has won the last two times the players have met on a hard court may give the underdog enough to come through with another victory.

Alexander Zverev + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: He is making history in each passing week, but the run to the Olympic Games Semi Final has been incredibly straight-forward for Novak Djokovic and just underlines how difficult it is going to be to stop the World Number completing the Golden Slam. He will become the first men's player to do that and only the second tennis player to ever to do that, but Novak Djokovic is someone who wants to cement his legacy in the sport and chasing records motivates him.

Novak Djokovic has dropped just seventeen games in his four wins in Tokyo and he needed a little over an hour to end the home hopes of a Tennis Medal. The numbers over the first four matches are incredible and Novak Djokovic has hammered every opponent he has played, while he has only dropped his serve once in the four matches completed.

The serve may still have room for improvement, but Novak Djokovic is returning at such a high level that opponents are feeling the pressure every time they step up to the line. He has broken at least three times in each match played in the tournament and Novak Djokovic has won over 50% of the return points played in three of the four matches.

All of this points to a very difficult challenge for Alexander Zverev, although the German is the only player that has come close to matching the intensity and consistency of the World Number 1. However, Alexander Zverev does have a 2-6 head to head record against Novak Djokovic and he has lost both matches played against him this year and both of those have come on the hard courts.

The defeat at the Australian Open was competitive though and Alexander Zverev has given Novak Djokovic more to think about than just about anybody playing on the Tour over the last twelve months. That will be encouraging, while Alexander Zverev has a massive serve that can at least prevent Novak Djokovic from dominating the return games to the same standard he has in this tournament and for much of the last few seasons on the Tour.

Playing the big points more effectively is important for Alexander Zverev if he is going to have any chance of the upset, but he does produce enough from the serve to expect him to give Novak Djokovic the most to think about in this tournament so far. In their match at the Australian Open, Alexander Zverev actually created more break point chances than Novak Djokovic and it is something that he has to build upon if he is going to find a way to reach the Gold Medal match and end the dreams of the World Number 1.

Alexander Zverev has won the first set in each of the last two matches against Novak Djokovic on a hard court, but he would not have covered with this start in either as the World Number 1 rallied. He is in fine form in this tournament, but even then it is difficult to imagine the overall upset will be completed, although I do think the numbers in their two matches in 2021 suggests the German can keep this one close with the level he has shown.

It is very difficult to oppose Novak Djokovic who is clearly the best player in the world, but I am looking for Alexander Zverev to offer the strongest challenge that the World Number 1 has faced in Tokyo. Serving at his best is key for Zverev, but if he can do that he can move into a position to keep this match very close and I will back him with the start offered.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev + 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Tennis Day 6 Picks 2021 (July 29th)

After more criticism of the Tennis schedule at the Olympic Games, the organisers have finally decided to delay the start of each day and that is good news for those of us in Europe with the matches now beginning at a more manageable time.

It is a shame it has taken the organisers so long to change the schedule and it might have been the sad sight of seeing Paula Badosa having to be taken off the court in a wheelchair that prompted it. Daniil Medvedev went as far as to ask the Umpire in his match who would be responsible if he was to die in the heat that Tokyo experienced on Wednesday, but it did feel like stubbornness had taken over and the players were not going to be listened to.

Things have changed as we are down to the Quarter Finals of the Men's event, while the four Women remaining will decide whether they are playing for a Gold Medal later this week or having to pick themselves up for a shot at the Bronze. The two winners on Thursday will guarantee their Medal opportunity with the Final deciding the Gold and Silver and it does mean one player is going to miss out completely, but it is up to the players to focus on the match in front of them.

Like many of the WTA draws over the last three or four years, new faces are getting to the business end of tournaments all the time and the winner of the Gold Medal looks like being as surprising as the last one when Monica Puig took home the top prize.

At this moment the Men's draw looks more clear as Novak Djokovic continues to brush aside all in front of him as he looks to add the Gold Medal to the three Grand Slams he has won in 2021. Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev may be the biggest threats left in the draw, but Novak Djokovic has been on easy street for much of the tournament and looks like there are still gears to move through as he peaks towards the weekend.

After a poor Day 4, it was a much stronger Day 5 at the Olympic Games for the Tennis Picks and hopefully the start of a strong end to this tournament.

I have not had the time to write out full analysis of some of the Tennis Picks for Thursday, but I have researched these selections and will look for the momentum to carry through another day.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov-Ugo Humbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy + 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 19-14, + 3.42 Units (66 Units Staked, + 5.18% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 5 Picks 2021 (July 28th)

There has been a lot going on today and that has meant I have not had the time to write out a longer post for Day 5 at the Olympic Games than I have previously this week.

We have the entirety of the Men's Third Round to be completed today and also the Women's Quarter Final matches as I look to bounce back from a sub-par Day 4.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nikoloz Basilashvili + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 13-12, - 2.44 Units (50 Units Staked, - 4.88% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 4 Picks 2021 (July 27th)

The schedule for the Olympic Games Tennis tournament means the entirety of the Women's Second Round and Third Rounds are going to be played in a single day with the Bronze and Gold Medal matches scheduled for Saturday.

The Men's Final is set for Sunday so the schedule for their tournament has seen the First Round and Second Round split over two days early in the week. All of the Third Round matches will be played on Wednesday and the big names are largely still in action in this event.

I've updated the Olympic Games stats below after another inconsistent day on Monday and I am looking for more consistency with the selections made on Tuesday as Day 4 gets going. There is rain forecasted in Tokyo so those of us in Europe may actually get to see some live Tennis outside of the early starts that have had to be made over the last few days.

The roof on the main court should see those matches go as scheduled, but the other matches may have a delayed start with the rain expected and it could mean late night tennis to keep the tournament on track for a finish later this weekend.

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: The heat in Tokyo has made it more important for players to not overexert themselves in the early part of the Olympic tournament if they are going to have the energy to Medal at the end of this week. An upset win for Kei Nishikori over Andrey Rublev came in straight sets and will give the home player something to build upon, while Marcos Giron needed three sets and a full hour more on the court to win his own First Round match.

Both will feel they deserve their spot in the Second Round though and the upset produced by Kei Nishikori means the draw has opened up somewhat. The big threat in this section continues to be Novak Djokovic though and his presence will have to be overcome for either of Kei Nishikori or Marcos Giron to get into a position to win a Medal, but that match is to come later in the week and it won't mean anything unless they can get through this tough match.

The earlier hard court numbers were not that impressive for either player, but both looked in much stronger from in the First Round at the Olympic Games. The Kei Nishikori win is clearly the more impressive of the two considering the opponent he was faced with, but much is going to depend on the serve if the Japanese player is going to work his way into a position to progress to the Third Round.

Over the course of the season, Kei Nishikori has been a little inconsistent with his serve and it has led to him only holding 74% of service games played. I am not entirely convinced that Marcos Giron is the kind of return player to exploit that, but the American will look to serve big and hope that can generate enough pressure to break down Nishikori coming in off a big win.

The serve was important for Marcos Giron in his First Round win and he has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts, although recent form has been more mixed. A return to the hard courts should benefit Giron going forward into the US hard court series of tournaments, although his return of serve is one that needs to be much improved if Marcos Giron is going to have any deep runs in this event and those in the lead up to the US Open.

After missing 2020, Kei Nishikori did have a slow start to 2021, but in recent weeks and months there has been an improvement in his level of performance. There are going to be a few key points that ends up determining the direction of this match, but I do think Kei Nishikori can build on the big win he earned in the First Round as he looks to put a show on in his home Olympic Games.

This is not going to be an easy spread to cover if Marcos Giron is anywhere near his best serving level, but I think Kei Nishikori can get into the return games and he should show he is the superior player in the longer rallies. I expect the Japanese player to earn a couple more breaks of serve over the course of the match and it should give him every chance of covering this mark.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There is a relatively early opportunity for Stefanos Tsitsipas to earn a measure of revenge against Frances Tiafoe after losing to the American in the First Round at Wimbledon earlier this month. That defeat would have been a big disappointment to the Greek player, but playing on the grass courts are still a work in progress for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he is a much more comfortable player on the clay and hard court portion of the Tour.

He may not have won a title on the hard courts in 2021, but Stefanos Tsitsipas did reach the Semi Final at the Australian Open and has moved through to the Quarter Final stage of every tournament he has played on this surface.

One of the main reasons for the improved results on the hard courts has been the success Stefanos Tsitsipas has had on the return of serve. We all know he possesses a big serve and can back that up very effectively, but Tsitsipas has improved his percentage of breaks of serve from around the 17-18% mark up to 25% in his twenty-two hard court matches played in 2021.

A tough First Round win over a veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas a boost in confidence and he has beaten Frances Tiafoe in the three previous hard court matches they have competed in. The head to head in those matches shows that the Greek player has been the dominant return player and Frances Tiafoe is someone who is comfortable on the hard courts, but far from consistent enough to put together a string of strong results.

Frances Tiafoe can be dangerous with his natural athleticism making him a player that can put together a strong set even when playing some of the better players on the Tour. However, his overall numbers on the hard courts have been average at best over the last few seasons and he has only reached one Quarter Final on the surface in 2021.

Even before this season, the American has been an inconsistent performer on the hard courts and his head to head with Stefanos Tsitsipas is a concern despite the win at Wimbledon. It might give Frances Tiafoe more belief, but Tsitsipas is a different performer on the hard courts and I think he is going to have a little too much for the American in this Second Round match.

In their previous hard court matches, Frances Tiafoe has held around 72% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 94% mark and it might be the difference maker on the day. This is a big mark to cover without a doubt, but Stefanos Tsitsipas might have enough to get over the mark and perhaps even match the margin of win when the Greek player beat Tiafoe here in Tokyo in 2017.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: Two dominant wins to move through to the Third Round has underlined Naomi Osaka's favouritism to win the Gold Medal in her home Olympic Games on a surface in which she is the best WTA player in the world. You could be forgiven for forgetting that Naomi Osaka has not played since the First Round of the French Open, but a return to the hard courts and the chance to refresh mentally and physically has clearly come at a good time for the Japanese superstar.

She has barely been pushed so far in Tokyo, but I am sure Naomi Osaka will be the first to expect a much stronger challenge in the Third Round. Even then it is difficult to see anyone really troubling Naomi Osaka outside of a couple of names left in the draw, but the WTA Tour has long been fairly open with players capable of producing a big week at any time.

Naomi Osaka is the top hard court player in the world though and she has yet to drop her serve in the Tokyo Olympic tournament, while an aggressive return has seen her win 46% of the return points played in both matches. That has produced enough break points for Naomi Osaka to really dominate on the scoreboard and I do think there is going to be a lot of pressure on the lefty serve of Marketa Vondrousova despite the two wins the Czech player has put on the board.

The Second Round win was much easier than the three set win over Kiki Bertens in the First Round, but Marketa Vondrousova has had an inconsistent time on the hard courts over the last two seasons. The second serve is one that can be attacked by opponents and Marketa Vondrousova can sometimes be overwhelmed by the power coming against her which has been the case in some heavy losses on this surface to the likes of Aryna Sabalenka and Garbine Muguruza earlier this season.

Now she will have to deal with the immense power that Naomi Osaka can bring to the court and it will be a real challenge for Marketa Vondrousova to get into the return games she is playing. It only adds to the pressure when Osaka is ready to get on the front foot whenever she sees a second serve and ultimately I think this is a surface on which the Number 2 Seed can really push ahead with her aggressive brand of tennis.

Both wins produced so far this week have been by comfortable margins and I think Naomi Osaka is going to produce another one in the Third Round as she cover on her way through to the Quarter Finals.

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: Early losses in the build up to Wimbledon meant Karolina Pliskova could fly under the radar at the third Grand Slam of the 2021 season. She took full advantage of being able to play without a lot of pressure by reaching the Final at Wimbledon and the only regret will be the very slow start made in the three set defeat to Ashleigh Barty.

The recent form had made it difficult for anyone outside of Karolina Pliskova's team to believe she was ready for such a run at Wimbledon, but she has backed it up by winning two matches at the Tokyo Olympics. The Czech player is now the favourite to reach the Quarter Final as she edges closer to the Medal positions in Tokyo, while it will also be a good chance for Pliskova to give herself another shot of confidence before the US Open begins.

Karolina Pliskova did not have the best early form on the hard courts in 2021, but she will at least avoid having to face Jessica Pegula in this tournament. The latter has gotten the better of Karolina Pliskova too many times already in 2021, while the Czech player has just been a little short of where she would expect to be in her return numbers.

That part of her game will be tested by Camila Giorgi who reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne in the build up to Wimbledon, but who has been in erratic form over the last twelve months. There is plenty of talent in the Giorgi racquet, but I am not always convinced that she is completely focused on her tennis and that has led to some inconsistent results, while her form on the hard courts in early 2021 has been less than impressive.

Camila Giorgi has a decent first serve which can make her dangerous, but the second serve is vulnerable and an over-aggressive return game can lead to a lot of unforced errors and easing the pressure on her opponent. It is certainly going to be a worry for her against the big Karolina Pliskova serve, while the head to head with this opponent is also going to be a mental obstacle for the Italian player to overcome.

She did beat Karolina Pliskova on the grass courts last month, but it is Karolina Pliskova who has won all four of their previous hard court matches. In those matches, Pliskova has dominated the return aspect of the matches against Camila Giorgi and she has produced plenty more break points than her Italian opponent and eventually broken down the game.

I do note that Karolina Pliskova has gotten a little more used to the kind of serving to expect from Camila Giorgi in those hard court matches and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this match too. There will be some rough moments for Pliskova to ride out considering how big and aggressive some of the tennis produced by Camila Giorgi can be, but I think the higher Ranked player can do that and she can eventually move through to the Quarter Final behind a good looking win.

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Both of these players have made comfortable progress through the first two Rounds of the Tokyo Olympics and I have to believe that both Belinda Bencic and Barbora Krejcikova can recognise an opportunity in front of them. The top half of the draw has already lost Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka and the winner of this Third Round match is going to be feeling confident of at least making it through to the Semi Final of the tournament and moving into a position to win a Medal.

There are still some dangerous player in the top half of the draw that have to be respected and neither of these players can afford to overlook the opponent across from the other side of the net in the Third Round. Comfortable wins in the first couple of Rounds should mean there are two confident players going onto the court, but Barbora Krejcikova is the right favourite as far as I am concerned.

The French Open Champion has been a solid hard court performer on the Singles Tour over the last two seasons and her numbers in 2021 have improved on those produced in 2020. Before the Tokyo Olympics got underway, Barbora Krejcikova had a good run at Wimbledon and she also won a hard court tournament at home in Prague, while a strong first serve has been backed up by an impressive return game.

Her hard court numbers are significantly stronger than the ones Belinda Bencic has produced in 2021 and I have long felt that the Swiss player has been something of an underachiever. That might be a surprising statement considering Bencic has been as high as World Number 4, but she has only reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam twice before in her career.

Both of those runs have come at the US Open, but the general hard court numbers have been pretty average and some way below the level that Barbora Krejcikova has produced on the surface. Belinda Bencic does have a decent first serve, but she has not been as convincing a return player as some of the other top names on the Tour and that has left her vulnerable at times.

Belinda Bencic has a losing record against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts since the start of the 2020 season and she is just 2-4 in those matches in 2021. Some of the losses have been particularly one-sided and that has largely been down to the poor return numbers produced in those matches, which is a concern when facing someone who can serve as well as Barbora Krejcikova.

The Swiss player has lost all four matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and Belinda Bencic has won 29% of return points played in those matches. A vulnerable second serve has also been heavily exploited in those defeats and I think Barbora Krejcikova will have too much for Bencic in this Third Round match as she keeps her winning run going through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 10-7, + 2.94 Units (34 Units Staked, + 8.65% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 3 Picks 2021 (July 26th)

The Tokyo Olympics Tennis tournament continues on Monday as we get into the Second Round of the tournament in both the Men's and Women's events.

The heat is still likely to play a huge part in the outcome of some of the matches being played, but the players have to try and focus on their tennis as they get their teeth into this event. Ashleigh Barty's defeat in the First Round will have just refocused some of the minds of the players looking to Medal at the Olympics and none of those still in the draw can take anything for granted.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: There are a number of firsts that Novak Djokovic is aiming for over the remainder of his career, but the chance to win a Golden Slam in the same calendar year is something that might cement his place as the best player to ever step on a tennis court. This is the last realistic chance for Novak Djokovic to become the first male player to complete the calendar Grand Slam with the addition of the Olympic Gold Medal and is the favourite to win this tournament as well as the US Open which will begin at the end of next month.

A comfortable First Round win has gotten the tournament going for Novak Djokovic, but it wasn't all plain-sailing as the incredibly hot conditions in Tokyo have made life difficult for all of the players in the draw. The World Number 1 has been joined by other voices to suggest the Tennis tournament should be played later in the day rather than the height of the heat, but it should not be an issue for Novak Djokovic on Monday as he goes out last on the main court.

This is the first hard court tournament Novak Djokovic has played since winning the Australian Open, but he has added the French Open and Wimbledon in the time between the first Grand Slam of the season and the Olympic Games. Over the last twelve months, Djokovic has held 87% of his hard court service games and broken in 28% of return games which sees him producing some of the best numbers on the surface and underlining his place as World Number 1.

It makes the task in front of Jan-Lennard Struff look very difficult and especially as he has lost all five previous matches against Novak Djokovic. The German won his First Round match pretty comfortably, but Jan-Lennard Struff has struggled for consistency on the hard courts over the last twelve months and particularly in the tournaments he has played in 2021.

Jan-Lennard Struff is going to need to serve incredibly well to put Novak Djokovic under pressure, but the previous head to heads between these players suggests the latter has a pretty good read of the Struff serve. The four previous hard court matches between the two have seen Novak Djokovic break serve in 43% of return games played and he has won almost half of the points played against the serve which is always going to put Jan-Lennard Struff under real pressure.

There has simply not been enough good returning from Jan-Lennard Struff to make up for that and I do think Novak Djokovic can break him down and move through relatively comfortably to the Third Round.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: The face of the Tokyo Olympics was given the honour of lighting the Olympic cauldron and Naomi Osaka has insisted she is feeling much happier after a difficult couple of months. She withdraw in the French Open and skipped Wimbledon, but Osaka looked to be in great form in her First Round win and is expected to back that up in the Second Round.

After Ashleigh Barty's surprising defeat in the First Round, Naomi Osaka is not only the top Seed left in the draw but she has already established herself as the strongest hard court player on the WTA Tour. Winning the Australian Open underlined the point and Naomi Osaka should be the favourite to win the Gold Medal.

The serve is a potent weapon for Naomi Osaka, but over the last twelve months there has been an improvement in her return game on the hard courts which has made her a hugely successful player. Being aggressive puts the pressure on her opponents and I think Naomi Osaka has also become a stronger tactical player which means she is not just going for broke on every shot.

I do think Naomi Osaka can do the same to Viktorija Golubic, although the Swiss player is coming in off a strong Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. Viktorija Golubic has performed well on the hard courts earlier this season with a title win below the main WTA Tour, while also Qualifying for Lyon and Monterrey before finishing as Runners Up in both of those tournaments too.

The return is a key part of Viktorija Golubic's tennis, but I am not sure she is going to get much change from the Naomi Osaka serve and that is going to put the lower Ranked player under pressure. We saw in her defeat to Karolina Pliskova at Wimbledon that the power and big hitting can break through the Viktorija Golubic defences and Naomi Osaka is more than capable of doing that on the hard courts.

Ultimately Golubic does not have a major serve and it should mean the match is one that Naomi Osaka can dominate. She should be comfortable within the match in what Viktorija Golubic brings to the table, and I think it should see Naomi Osaka find the breaks of serve to cover this handicap mark set.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Donna Vekic: Making a breakthrough in a Grand Slam has been a long time coming for Aryna Sabalenka, but there will be some regret she was not able to reach the Wimbledon Final having led the Semi Final by a set against Karolina Pliskova. It is another step in the development of one of the stars of the WTA Tour and Aryna Sabalenka is a confident hard court player that will be targeting a big run at the Olympic Games and the upcoming US Open.

The Belarusian has taken over from Victoria Azarenka as the top player from the nation and Aryna Sabalenka crushed Magda Linette in the First Round. That was a very encouraging start to the Tokyo Olympics, although the conditions for this tournament are far from ideal for all of the players competing.

Aryna Sabalenka has won a title on the hard courts in 2021 and she has had a couple of Quarter Final runs under her belt, while the numbers are steadily improving. The big first serve makes Sabalenka very dangerous and she is also an aggressive return player that can really get after her opponent's serve.

One criticism is that Aryna Sabalenka only has one gear and she can struggle to break the momentum when things begin to go against her, but a match against someone like Donna Vekic should be ideal for Sabalenka with both players looking to produce the big shots.

It has been a difficult year for Donna Vekic who has missed huge chunks of the Tour, and she is just 5-4 since returning at the French Open. A three set win over Caroline Garcia is the first hard court match Donna Vekic has played since the Australian Open, but this is a big step upwards in terms of opponent and the Croatian has struggled for consistency on this surface over the last twelve months.

Both players will be looking to attack any second serve they see, but I do think the recent form is going to give Aryna Sabalenka an edge in this Second Round match. Donna Vekic had won the first three matches between the pair, but the last of those was back in 2017 and Aryna Sabalenka showed how much she has improved by beating Vekic in their last meeting in San Jose in 2019.

In the two years since that match, Sabalenka is even stronger and I think she will find a way to break down Donna Vekic and eventually cover what is a wide handicap spread on paper. Aggressive returning should give Aryna Sabalenka the break points to get over the number though as long as the big first serve is working like it can do.

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: Home players might not have the same backing from the crowd as they would have done if the Tokyo Olympics had been played in front of the full stands and for some it is going to make life more difficult as they bid to beat higher Ranked players. That is the problem for Misaki Doi in this Second Round match, despite the fact she was a comfortable winner in the First Round.

Before the Olympic Games began, Misaki Doi had been struggling on the Tour and she has only produced a 5-15 record when she has faced an opponent Ranked inside the top 100. That is not very encouraging, while Doi's numbers have been pretty poor when playing those top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

The serve is vulnerable and Misaki Doi has not been able to return as well as she would have liked which has added to the pressure within matches. That has led to some very heavy defeats on the hard courts and one of those came against Belinda Bencic who is the Second Round opponent she is going to be facing in this tournament.

Belinda Bencic's World Ranking feels a little artificial at Number 12 considering the inconsistent results and performances over the last several months. She did reach the Final of a grass court tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, but Bencic was beaten in the First Round there and over the last twelve months she is barely over 0.500 in terms of matches won, while the Swiss player currently holds an 8-6 record on the hard courts in 2021.

A run to the Final of a tournament in Adelaide is the best result of the year, but Belinda Bencic's general hard court performances have not been as strong as she would have liked and there have been too many early defeats. The serve can still be important for Belinda Bencic, but the last couple of seasons have seen her struggle on her return and she has the room to improve that aspect of her tennis which will see results improve.

Belinda Bencic will benefit from knowing she has gotten the better of Misaki Doi in their head to heads with a 3-0 win-loss record in her favour. One of those came earlier this year as I have mentioned above, although this should be closer if Misaki Doi is able to win the big points much more effectively than she did in that match in Adelaide.

Even then you would have to give Belinda Bencic a serious edge and I think she can work her way past one of the home hopes in the Tennis tournament in Tokyo. Belinda Bencic should have enough to cover the handicap mark on her way through to the Third Round as Misaki Doi's serve perhaps lets her down over the course of this match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 7-4, + 4.30 Units (22 Units Staked, + 19.55% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 2 Picks 2021 (July 25th)

The Tennis continues at the Tokyo Olympic Games.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: A strong opening Doubles win will have given Andy Murray a real boost at the Olympic Games in Tokyo as he partnered up with Joe Salisbury to dump the Number 2 Seeds out of the tournament. The British player is also a double defending Gold Medal winner having picked up the top prize in London in 2012 and Rio in 2016, although Andy Murray is some way from the form of five years ago when he finished the year as the World Number 1.

Injuries have prevented Andy Murray from playing on the Tour to the standard he has set in his career, while it has felt like one step forward, two steps backwards as he bids to make a full time return to the Tour. Unsurprisingly the lack of tennis is beginning to impact the World Ranking as the Tour gets set to return to the 12 month Rankings that had been moved aside to cover for the Covid-19 pandemic which began sixteen months ago.

Andy Murray is currently outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and he was questioning his future in the sport after a one-sided Third Round loss at Wimbledon earlier this month. Some of that has been put down to the emotion of losing after a couple of tough wins, but Murray is going to have to raise his level significantly if he is going to take on some of the young guns on the ATP Tour who are beginning to make a big impact.

He faces one of those in the First Round at the Tokyo Olympics as Murray has been paired up to play Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The young Canadian reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final earlier this month and he is beginning to show improvement in a lot of aspects of his tennis which will make Felix Auger-Aliassime a threat as the Tour moves back to the hard courts. Earlier this year, Auger-Aliassime put together some solid results on the hard courts and he is beginning to back up a very good serve with an improved return game that will put Andy Murray under immense pressure in this First Round match.

We all know that Andy Murray is a solid return player, but he lost his two hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents pretty handily earlier in 2021. In those two matches, Murray struggled with his return and his own serve has proven to be vulnerable which should give Felix Auger-Aliassime an edge in this match.

There shouldn't be any intimidation on the part of the young Canadian going up against one of the big names of the ATP Tour from recent seasons. These two met at the US Open and Felix Auger-Aliassime crushed Andy Murray in straight sets while not giving up a single break point and working his way into the Murray service games often.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has also beaten Roger Federer on a grass court last month and I think he is going to have too much for Andy Murray as he ends the British player's reign as the current Olympic Champion.

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There are plenty of reasons to be disappointed watching sports without the fans, but for Kei Nishikori it will be a particularly sad moment as he gets set to begin his home Olympic Games in the Tennis event. The year postponement of the Games has at least given Nishikori a chance to get ready to compete, but the veteran former top ten player is not the performer he once was and I think this is a very difficult opening match for him.

With the support from the stands you could have imagined Kei Nishikori producing at a higher level than he has shown in 2021, but the lack of a crowd could make it tough to turn the momentum of a match if it begins to go against him.

Earlier this year, Kei Nishikori had a mixed time on the hard courts and he is coming in off a disappointing showing at Wimbledon which means this is a player who is perhaps not as confident going into the Olympic Games tournament as he would have wanted to be. Kei Nishikori has a 6-7 record on the hard courts in 2021 having missed the 2020 season, while his numbers are inconsistent too which suggests he is going to have to dig very deep to find a way to compete in this First Round match.

In those hard court matches, Kei Nishikori has only held 74% of the service games played, while the return performance has not been enough to make up for a vulnerable serve. Now the home hope is going to be facing Andrey Rublev who has shown consistency across the board in his performances over the last eighteen months and the Russian is also very comfortable playing on the hard courts.

Andrey Rublev feels like he is most comfortable on the hard courts and the level produced in 2021 is highly encouraging. A couple of titles and multiple runs to the Semi Final of other tournaments shows a consistency that might be too much for Kei Nishikori to deal with, while Andrey Rublev has held 88% of his service games played and broken in 28% of return games played.

Three years ago Kei Nishikori did beat Andrey Rublev on a hard court, but much has changed for both of these players since then. Nowadays it is the latter who has become one of the leading players on the ATP Tour and I think Andrey Rublev will get some revenge over Kei Nishikori by dumping him out of his home Olympics.

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: There will be plenty of eyes on Japanese Tennis on Day 2 at the Olympic Games Tennis tournament, although the lack of fans does not really help the home players. One of the younger Japanese players will begin their bid to win the Gold Medal on Sunday when Yoshihito Nishioka takes to the court, although we have yet to see the lefty reach the kind of potential that he was once thought to possess.

Injuries have not helped, and over the last twelve months Yoshihito Nishioka has a significant losing record which is likely going to hurt his World Ranking once the Tour moves back into a regular Ranking system. A poor grass court season means confidence is not going to be in the best place for Yoshihito Nishioka going into the Olympic Games and his hard court performances earlier in 2021 does not offer much encouragement either.

Yoshihito Nishioka has a 2-7 record on the hard courts in 2021 and both wins came in the same tournament in Singapore, while the 25 year old has lost his last four hard court matches. The lefty should get more out of his serve, but Nishioka has only held 62% of the service games played on this surface and it has put him under pressure on the return where Yoshihito Nishioka has only managed to break in 19% of return games played.

It is going to be a huge challenge for Yoshihito Nishioka to take on Karen Khachanov fresh off a Quarter Final run at Wimbledon and especially as the latter has produced much stronger form on the hard courts. The Russian may actually feel he has been underperforming over the last twelve months, but the wins at Wimbledon will be a huge boost to the confidence and moving back onto his favourite surface has to be another boost for Khachanov.

Karen Khachanov has dropped out of the top 20 of the World Rankings, but his strong serving should give him a real edge in this match. Where Nishioka has struggled to hold serve, Karen Khachanov has held 87% of the service games played on the hard courts and he also has a slightly higher break percentage on the hard courts compared with his opponent.

Their sole meeting came at the Australian Open in 2019 and Karen Khachanov won in straight sets against Yoshihito Nishioka. The Russian dominated the return numbers on the day and doubled the amount of break points created and I do think Khachanov will be able to dictate the tempo of the match and eventually cover the handicap mark on his way through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Veronika Kerdermetova + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Unitss)

Ons Jabeur - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Tennis Day 1 Picks 2021 (July 24th)

After a strong Wimbledon to bounce back somewhat from what has been a disappointing start to the 2021 season for the Tennis Picks.

I decided that the next tournament of note would be the Olympic Games Tennis Tournament before the move onto the North American hard courts in the build up for the US Open. There should be plenty of motivation for players to produce their best tennis back on the hard courts with the chance to Medal for their country, but there is also the move from the clay and grass courts to consider with this being the first hard court event of note since the Miami Masters back in March.

The First Round begins on Saturday which is Day 1 of the tournament and the Tennis event will run through the week. I will have another thread up for the Sunday matches, but I am looking for these selections to get the tournament off to a good start and build on the successes from Wimbledon.

Heather Watson - 2.5 games v Anna Lena Friedsam: It might be a year later than planned, some of the big names might have opted out of travelling, and the stands are going to be empty, but the Tokyo Olympics have gotten underway. The Tennis tournament is perhaps not one of the more popular portions of the Olympic Games, but any time an athlete can win a Gold Medal it is going to be very easy to be motivated.

Withdrawals in the women's draw means the run to the Gold Medal is perhaps not as filled with obstacles as the Grand Slam tournaments have been, but even then I would imagine there are plenty of players who believe they can win this event. Big name players have won the Gold Medal since the return of Tennis to the Olympic Games in 1988, but the likes of Elena Dementieva and Monica Puig have also won the Gold Medal but the former retired without a Grand Slam success and the latter has not really reached the heights of Rio again.

Those wins should offer encouragement to Anna Lena Friedsam and Heather Watson who meet in the First Round, although it would be a massive surprise if either was involved in the Medal shake up at the end of this week.

You can only take things one match at a time and I do think both players involved in this First Round match will be confident they can progress to the Second Round. Heather Watson has really struggled over the last twelve months, but Anna Lena Friedsam has not been much better despite largely taking on lower Ranked players and I do think this will be a competitive match.

Both players have terrible 3-6 records on the hard courts so far in 2021 and will be heading into another set of hard court tournaments in preparation for the US Open which begins later next month. However, those two records are vastly different in terms of the quality of opponent with Friedsam only playing one player inside the top 100 so far on this surface, while Heather Watson has played five top 100 Ranked players.

The second serve of both players is vulnerable and neither Friedsam nor Watson have returned as well as they would have liked on the surface. I expect both to have success returning in this one considering the serve they are facing, but Heather Watson might have the superior first serve and that could see the match swing in her favour after a relatively disappointing grass court season.

Two years ago Heather Watson beat Anna Lena Friedsam in straight sets on the hard courts in North America and I do think she can do the same here in Tokyo. It is going to be a hot day which may make it tough for the players, but Heather Watson should have enough to earn a victory and a cover of this handicap mark on her way through to the Second Round.

Maria Sakkari - 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: It is perhaps not a major surprise that Maria Sakkari had a disappointing Wimbledon hot on the heels of her run at the French Open.

At Roland Garros, Maria Sakkari reached the Semi Final where she was eventually beaten 9-7 in the final set by Barbora Krejcikova, the eventual French Open Champion. The Greek player will have felt she had enough chances to beat Krejcikova in that Semi Final and there will have been some regret felt which can be very difficult to overcome on a Tour where players are expected to move on swiftly.

Moving back onto the hard courts may not be a bad thing for Maria Sakkari who has shown improvement on this surface in recent seasons and who had some very strong results on the surface earlier this season. Another tight loss saw Sakkari beaten in the Semi Final of the Miami Masters and she has reached three Semi Finals on the hard courts already this season which should see her go into this Olympic draw feeling pretty confident.

The serve is an important weapon for Maria Sakkari and she is also being much more effective on the return which has made her dangerous on the hard courts. However, one of her losses on the surface has come at the hands of Anett Kontaveit as these two players meet for the tenth time on the professional Tour.

The Estonian beat Sakkari in a Champions Tie-Breaker at the Grampians Trophy in the Semi Final, but it is the latter who will feel like she deserved more from that match. It does mean Anett Kontaveit has won the last two hard court meetings between these players and they have split the six hard court meetings 3-3, but Maria Sakkari will feel she has been the stronger player more often than not and it is about taking the chances being created and playing the big points stronger than she has in those hard court matches.

Anett Kontaveit is also coming in off a disappointing Wimbledon where she was beaten in the First Round days after reaching the Eastbourne Final. Like her opponent in the First Round, Kontaveit has played well on the hard courts and she has produced similar numbers to Maria Sakkari with strong serving backed up by aggressive returning.

It makes it feel like a match that could easily go the distance, but their head to head matches on the hard courts has seen Maria Sakkari look the more likely to create break point chances. That returning edge may see her get past a tough opponent in the First Round and Maria Sakkari can just about cover this mark on her way to the Second Round.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Alexander Bublik: A Quarter Final run at the French Open and a Fourth Round run at Wimbledon sandwiching another title win would be a pretty solid run for most professional Tennis players, but the World Number 2 Daniil Medvedev may feel he has come up a little short. The defeat at the French Open was perhaps more predictable, but an irritated Medvedev blew a 2-1 lead over Hubert Hurkacz at Wimbledon on a surface he will feel he should be going further in the draw than those tournaments on the clay courts.

The Russian will be operating under a different flag at the Olympic Games, but the chance to win a Gold Medal is still a big deal and the tournament being played on the hard courts should benefit Daniil Medvedev. He reached the Australian Open Final earlier this season and Daniil Medvedev has also reached the Final at the US Open, while he has also made it clear that the hard courts are his favourite surface.

His numbers on this surface from the 2019 season to now are as good as any other ATP player on the Tour and that is hugely encouraging for the World Number 2. Daniil Medvedev will certainly be amongst the favourites in this tournament as well as the upcoming Masters and Grand Slam events in North America and this is a player who has not only served really well on the hard courts, but also been one of the more effective return players.

That will be encouraging ahead of this match against Alexander Bublik who has been in solid form over the last twelve months, but also a touch inconsistent. Alexander Bublik has reached the Final of a couple of hard court events already this season, but even his numbers underline the inconsistency I have written about and I think that is a problem for the Kazakhstani player when going up against someone as good as Daniil Medvedev.

A confidence booster for Alexander Bublik is that he does have a 2-1 win-loss record against top ten players on the hard courts in 2021, although the numbers have been pretty tight. He is going to need to serve really well if he is going to get the better of Daniil Medvedev though and the head to head is not as encouraging as his record against top ten players.

Daniil Medvedev has won all three previous matches between the players including a straight sets win at the French Open a couple of months ago. The two hard court meetings came back in 2016 and both of these players will feel they are much improved since those days, although it is Daniil Medvedev that has played at a consistently higher level than Alexander Bublik.

In their previous matches, the World Number 2 has a significant advantage when it comes to the return performances and I think that may be the case in Tokyo too. This is a big handicap mark and especially if Alexander Bublik serves at his best level, but I think Daniil Medvedev is a very strong return player on the hard courts and that is where he can start to exert plenty of pressure and break down an opponent who can throw in a couple of erratic service games when feeling he needs to go for more than what he is comfortable with.

The big handicap mark is one that Daniil Medvedev is more than capable of covering and I think he will find the breaks of serve to do that.

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 games v Tommy Paul: A surprising run at the Australian Open was only ended by Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final, but Aslan Karatsev dealt with his new found fame by winning the title in Dubai on the hard courts after the first Grand Slam of the season was in the books. The move onto the clay and grass courts has seen a more mixed set of results being produced by Aslan Karatsev, but he will be looking to build some momentum again now the Tour has moved back onto the hard courts.

If the Olympic Games had taken place twelve months ago in their original spot in the sporting calendar, Aslan Karatsev is unlikely to have taken part. That underlines the kind of progress and results the Russian player has produced over the last twelve months and he will certainly believe there is still more to come.

The serve is an important weapon for Karatsev, but he is also very dangerous when it comes to the returning part of the match and that is where he has really made hay on this surface. In 2020 Aslan Karatsev was largely successful on the Challenger Tour, but his performances in the early hard court tournaments has seen him build on that and he is going to be able to put some pressure on Tommy Paul.

His American opponent in the First Round has not played since the French Open, although Tommy Paul is going to feel similar to Aslan Karatsev in being much happier getting back onto the hard courts. Ultimately Tommy Paul has not been as consistent as Karatsev on this surface and a 5-6 record on the hard courts in 2021 underlines the point.

Tommy Paul's serve has been a little more vulnerable than he would like and I think that is something that will encourage an aggressive Aslan Karatsev to try and get after the return and put his opponent under immense pressure. The problem for Paul has been the fact that his serve is a very important part of his tennis on the hard courts and he has not been able to get his teeth into return games to make up for the vulnerability shown on the serve.

It should give Aslan Karatsev a chance to get on top of this match and find the breaks of serve needed in the First Round to progress in the draw and also cover this handicap mark. Things might be dicey at times if Karatsev throws in a couple of sub-par service games, but I think his pressure on the return of serve will be the key to the outcome of the match and Aslan Karatsev can move through with at least one more break of serve in each set than Tommy Paul.

MY PICKS: Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Viktorija Golubic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Picks 2021- Gentlemen's Final (July 11th)

The Ladies Final has largely disappointed over the last several years at Wimbledon, but that was not the case on Saturday as Ashleigh Barty came through in three sets against Karolina Pliskova.

Nerves hurt Pliskova and I do wonder if they will play a part for Matteo Berrettini as he gets set to play his first ever Grand Slam Final. He is facing an experienced opponent in Novak Djokovic who is clearly the best player in the world, but the Men's Final has proven to be very entertaining in recent times and the hope is that there will be another one on Sunday.

Personally I am not quite so sure as you will be able to read below.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: The 2021 Wimbledon Men's Final will be competed by one player with a vast amount of experience and one looking to win his maiden Grand Slam title.

Novak Djokovic is unsurprisingly the favourite having won his last twenty matches at Wimbledon, but Matteo Berrettini will arrive in the Final with a heap of confidence behind him having won the Queens title before Wimbledon began. He has been largely untroubled in the tournament so far too, but Novak Djokovic can say the same and he has won the last two Grand Slam tournaments that have been played and is looking to match his great rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal at twenty Majors won.

That will place some pressure on Djokovic's shoulders, but he is vastly experienced and showed in his Semi Final win that he is able to play the big points really well against the upstarts of the Tour who are looking to take their place amongst the elite. The win over Denis Shapovalov should really work out well for Novak Djokovic as he will have felt some of the pace that is going to be coming out of the Matteo Berrettini racquet, while his previous head to head wins over the Italian will only add to the confidence the World Number 1 is usually going to feel.

The serve is going to be a key weapon for both players, but you really have to believe that Matteo Berrettini will need the first serve to be working from the off to have a chance. It has been a potent weapon for him throughout the tournament, but Matteo Berrettini may be the first to admit that he has not played a return player of the quality of Novak Djokovic and he was challenged by Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Quarter Final before finally edging past the young Canadian.

Novak Djokovic has been serving incredibly well in the tournament himself and it is an underrated part of his game on the faster surfaces. I expect it will be a serve that makes it tough for Matteo Berrettini to get into the return games as often as he did in other matches at Wimbledon, while the pressure coming from the Novak Djokovic return is likely going to wear on an inexperienced, younger player.

Matteo Berrettini has been incredibly difficult to break on the grass and that is not a massive surprise when you think of the huge first serve he possesses that can get him out of troubling moments. However, he has been broken in 33% of his service games played against Novak Djokovic and I do think that the return of serve is going to be the key to the outcome of the match with a significant edge being given to the World Number 1.

While Novak Djokovic has had some successes getting into the Matteo Berrettini service games, the Italian has broken just once in six sets competed against Djokovic.

This is a big spread for Novak Djokovic to cover if Matteo Berrettini is serving at the absolute top of his game, but I think anything less than that will see enough returns being made to wear down the younger player. Italy will be looking for a double in London on Sunday, but I think Novak Djokovic will have too much and force fans to hope for better later in the day.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 62-51, + 8.68 Units (226 Units Staked, + 3.84% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2021- Ladies Final (July 10th)

The two Wimbledon Finals will be played over the weekend with the first being the Ladies Final on Saturday before the Men take centre stage on Sunday.

My thoughts on the Ladies Final can be read below:

Ashleigh Barty-Karolina Pliskova over 21.5 games: Only one of the last thirteen Ladies Singles Finals played at Wimbledon have needed a final set decider and all of the last seven have been won in straight sets. It has been a long time since there has been a truly competitive Ladies Wimbledon Final, but the performances of both Ashleigh Barty and Karolina Pliskova over the last fortnight have been encouraging.

They have previously been involved in many competitive matches against one another with four of their seven matches needing a deciding set to determine a winner. Ashleigh Barty has gotten the better of the majority of those matches, and the Australian rightly goes into the Final as the favourite having previously won a Grand Slam title and with a strong love of the grass courts.

Karolina Pliskova has played in a Grand Slam Final before which will offer her some experience to fall back upon, but her run at Wimbledon has arguably been stronger than the one Ashleigh Barty has produced and her game is also very well suited to the grass courts. She has won titles on the surface before and there has been a confidence about her serving which is going to make Karolina Pliskova very dangerous.

However, Ashleigh Barty has also been producing solid serving and she gets plenty from that shot on this surface. There are one or two issues with the Pliskova serve that were highlighted by big hitting Aryna Sabalenka in the Semi Final, but in the main the Czech player will feel she is getting into the return games this week and I would not be surprised if this is the most competitive Ladies Final we have seen at Wimbledon for some time.

In their previous matches both players have gotten plenty out of their serve against the other and I think that could be evident in this Final too. I think the two players will be looking to serve well and try and make sure they look after that element of their tennis and it could mean a competitive match which sees the total games line surpassed.

Karolina Pliskova has really been thriving behind the serve and she has only dropped her serve four times in her six Wimbledon wins and I think that is key for the Czech underdog. If she can serve as well as she has, I think Pliskova can make this very close and she may even be able to upset the odds, but Ashleigh Barty has long been a tremendous grass court player and I would be surprised if she was to fall away.

The Australian has not been as consistent behind serve as Karolina Pliskova, but Ashleigh Barty might be the more stable when it comes to the big points and it just feels like a match that is going to go long.

MY PICK: Ashleigh Barty-Karolina Pliskova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)