The Tokyo Olympics are down to the Medal matches for those taking part in the Tennis event and the majority of the players involved have likely began their move across to North America where the build up to the US Open has begun.
Most won't likely take part in events listed to begin over the next few days, but Rafael Nadal is back as he travels to Washington for the first time.
Those are the 'weakest' events left before the run to the US Open with back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati played back to back in the middle of August. We should begin to get some insight into how the US Open may shake out, but for now the focus is on the Olympics and handing out the Medals across the next two days.
Elena Rybakina - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: The Bronze Medal match in the Women's Tennis Olympic tournament will be played before the Gold Medal match and it is a strange situation for the players competing. Every other tournament they would have played would have been over as soon as the Semi Final match points went against them, but Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina have to return to the court two days after those defeats to play this Bronze Medal match.
The mindset can be quite difficult to determine when you think of the normality of the situation for the players off a defeat. Elena Rybakina has to be feeling the Semi Final loss a little more than Elina Svitolina because the Kazakhstan player may believe that one or two points cost her the match in a very close encounter. The Elina Svitolina defeat was much more straight-forward and I do wonder if the early exploits in the tournament have caught up with a player who may not have spent as much time on the court as she would have liked in the lead up to the Olympic Games.
Elina Svitolina has only recently married Gael Monfils and that may have taken her focus from the tennis so the run in Tokyo is something of a surprise. Even more so when you think of the inconsistent performances Svitolina has produced over the last twelve months and she has not really played at a very high level in the tournament, but has managed to get through to the Bronze Medal match by playing the big points better than her opponents have been able to do.
I do think she is going to have to improve dramatically from the Semi Final level if she is going to beat Elena Rybakina who had breezed through her first four matches before losing a break advantage in the final set of her Semi Final defeat to Belinda Bencic. The Rybakina serve has been a big weapon for her throughout this tournament and she has found a consistency on the return of serve which may just give the younger player an edge as she looks to Medal.
Elina Svitolina's serve is much more erratic and I do think it is a vulnerable part of her game which has prevented her kicking on and winning a Grand Slam. While she has won four matches here, the Ukrainian has not really been dominant on the return of serve either and I do think Elena Rybakina will get the better of her as long as the almost three hour Semi Final has not taken too much from her mentally and emotionally.
Before that match, Elena Rybakina has not really spent a lot of time on the court compared with Elina Svitolina who had multiple matches being played that lasted more than two hours on the court. She looked a little drained in the Semi Final defeat to Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina beat Elina Svitolina last month on a grass court when her serve was the key difference.
The hard court numbers produced by both players have been very similar over the last twelve months, but Elena Rybakina has been performing at a much better level in this tournament and I think she can conclude it with a Bronze Medal.
Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Over the last three years it has become clear that there isn't a dominant player on the WTA Tour and that has meant the big tournaments have been much more open for all who take part. It has led to a number of first time Grand Slam Champions and the Olympic Games five years ago saw Monica Puig win a Gold Medal.
Naomi Osaka was the favourite to win the Gold Medal this time around along with World Number 1 Ashleigh Barty, but both exited the tournament relatively early. Even then, you would be hard pressed to find too many people who would have tipped up Marketa Vondrousova versus Belinda Bencic in the Gold Medal match and this is easily going to be the biggest tournament won by either of these players.
It does mean there will be a new kind of pressure to deal with, but Marketa Vondrousova may be slightly better placed to deal with that. The Czech youngster reached the French Open Final in 2019 and so will know what it takes to perform in an environment like this one which may be a slight edge over Belinda Bencic who has not been beyond the Fourth Round at three of the four Grand Slams played and her best effort being one Semi Final run at the US Open a little under two years ago.
There is little doubt that Marketa Vondrousova has played the stronger tennis to this point of the tournament too after a difficult opening match. She has taken full advantage of using a Protected Ranking to enter the draw when her current World Ranking would not have been good enough to represent a loaded Czech Republic team, and Marketa Vondrousova's numbers have seen her consistently out-perform Belinda Bencic.
The Swiss player came through an incredibly tough Semi Final against Elena Rybakina, but Belinda Bencic was a little fortunate on the day having produced fewer break points than her opponent. It was a really long match too and you do have to wonder if that has sapped some of the energy she is going to need to challenge Marketa Vondrousova who has won their sole previous match, also on a hard court.
It was a victory in a tough three setter, but Marketa Vondrousova earned three times as many break points as Belinda Bencic and she has won more than 50% of return points in each of her last four matches. That is incredibly dangerous for Belinda Bencic who gave up 16 break points in her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina and who has been struggling to earn easy service games in her last three matches.
Belinda Bencic is capable in her return game, but it has been a relative weakness in her performances on the hard courts in recent seasons. I think that will be the case in this Gold Medal match and I think Marketa Vondrousova will have enough to come through with the victory and the cover of this handicap mark.
Pablo Carreno Busta + 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: In normal circumstances, Novak Djokovic will be a player who doesn't spend a lot of time playing Doubles Tennis alongside his Singles commitments and certainly not at a major event. However, a proud Serb wanted to represent his nation to the fullest of his abilities at the Olympic Games and that has meant Novak Djokovic took part in the Mixed Doubles as well as the Singles tournament in Tokyo.
Some of that may have caught up with him as he was beaten in three sets in the Semi Final of the Singles tournament and later followed up with a straight sets defeat in the Mixed Doubles.
The dream of a Golden Slam have thus ended in the defeat to Alexander Zverev and now Novak Djokovic will instead be contesting the Bronze Medal match for the third time. He won that Medal in 2008 and was then beaten to finish without a Medal in London in 2012, while Novak Djokovic will also be dealing with the disappointment of losing his opportunity to win a Gold Medal.
It may not be his last chance to do that, but in three years time you would expect Novak Djokovic to not be as strong as he is right now. With the best opportunity now behind him, I do wonder what kind of motivation Novak Djokovic can have in this Bronze Medal match after looking completely exhausted by the end of his match with Alexander Zverev.
That has to be encouraging for Pablo Carreno Busta after the Spaniard was convincingly beaten in the first Semi Final against Karen Khachanov despite going into the match as the favourite. Winning a Medal would be a major achievement for Carreno Busta so I expect him to come out with a little more energy than Novak Djokovic, while Pablo Carreno Busta has to think about trying to extend the rallies and see whether a tired World Number 1 can really find the extra energy needed to win a Medal that he would not have been targeting before the tournament began.
Novak Djokovic is clearly the better hard court player and he has had the better tournament all around compared with Pablo Carreno Busta. The latter may need something like a repeat of their famous match at the US Open last year when Novak Djokovic was Defaulted after knocking a ball to the back of the court which hit a Line Judge.
However, I do think Novak Djokovic may be more focused on the other Bronze Medal match he is competing in on Saturday. Winning in the Mixed Doubles as a part of a team will be more appealing to a player that has a Singles Bronze Medal at home already and that should give Pablo Carreno Busta a chance for the upset.
Overall it certainly makes it feel like the underdog can keep this close with the amount of games being given to him. Novak Djokovic may still dig in and show his class in the victory, but I can see him coasting at times to preserve some energy and it may give Pablo Carreno Busta an opportunity to at least keep things close on the scoreboard.
MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Games: 23-17, + 2.96 Units (82 Units Staked, + 3.61% Yield)
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