The schedule for the Olympic Games Tennis tournament means the entirety of the Women's Second Round and Third Rounds are going to be played in a single day with the Bronze and Gold Medal matches scheduled for Saturday.
The Men's Final is set for Sunday so the schedule for their tournament has seen the First Round and Second Round split over two days early in the week. All of the Third Round matches will be played on Wednesday and the big names are largely still in action in this event.
I've updated the Olympic Games stats below after another inconsistent day on Monday and I am looking for more consistency with the selections made on Tuesday as Day 4 gets going. There is rain forecasted in Tokyo so those of us in Europe may actually get to see some live Tennis outside of the early starts that have had to be made over the last few days.
The roof on the main court should see those matches go as scheduled, but the other matches may have a delayed start with the rain expected and it could mean late night tennis to keep the tournament on track for a finish later this weekend.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: The heat in Tokyo has made it more important for players to not overexert themselves in the early part of the Olympic tournament if they are going to have the energy to Medal at the end of this week. An upset win for Kei Nishikori over Andrey Rublev came in straight sets and will give the home player something to build upon, while Marcos Giron needed three sets and a full hour more on the court to win his own First Round match.
Both will feel they deserve their spot in the Second Round though and the upset produced by Kei Nishikori means the draw has opened up somewhat. The big threat in this section continues to be Novak Djokovic though and his presence will have to be overcome for either of Kei Nishikori or Marcos Giron to get into a position to win a Medal, but that match is to come later in the week and it won't mean anything unless they can get through this tough match.
The earlier hard court numbers were not that impressive for either player, but both looked in much stronger from in the First Round at the Olympic Games. The Kei Nishikori win is clearly the more impressive of the two considering the opponent he was faced with, but much is going to depend on the serve if the Japanese player is going to work his way into a position to progress to the Third Round.
Over the course of the season, Kei Nishikori has been a little inconsistent with his serve and it has led to him only holding 74% of service games played. I am not entirely convinced that Marcos Giron is the kind of return player to exploit that, but the American will look to serve big and hope that can generate enough pressure to break down Nishikori coming in off a big win.
The serve was important for Marcos Giron in his First Round win and he has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts, although recent form has been more mixed. A return to the hard courts should benefit Giron going forward into the US hard court series of tournaments, although his return of serve is one that needs to be much improved if Marcos Giron is going to have any deep runs in this event and those in the lead up to the US Open.
After missing 2020, Kei Nishikori did have a slow start to 2021, but in recent weeks and months there has been an improvement in his level of performance. There are going to be a few key points that ends up determining the direction of this match, but I do think Kei Nishikori can build on the big win he earned in the First Round as he looks to put a show on in his home Olympic Games.
This is not going to be an easy spread to cover if Marcos Giron is anywhere near his best serving level, but I think Kei Nishikori can get into the return games and he should show he is the superior player in the longer rallies. I expect the Japanese player to earn a couple more breaks of serve over the course of the match and it should give him every chance of covering this mark.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There is a relatively early opportunity for Stefanos Tsitsipas to earn a measure of revenge against Frances Tiafoe after losing to the American in the First Round at Wimbledon earlier this month. That defeat would have been a big disappointment to the Greek player, but playing on the grass courts are still a work in progress for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he is a much more comfortable player on the clay and hard court portion of the Tour.
He may not have won a title on the hard courts in 2021, but Stefanos Tsitsipas did reach the Semi Final at the Australian Open and has moved through to the Quarter Final stage of every tournament he has played on this surface.
One of the main reasons for the improved results on the hard courts has been the success Stefanos Tsitsipas has had on the return of serve. We all know he possesses a big serve and can back that up very effectively, but Tsitsipas has improved his percentage of breaks of serve from around the 17-18% mark up to 25% in his twenty-two hard court matches played in 2021.
A tough First Round win over a veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas a boost in confidence and he has beaten Frances Tiafoe in the three previous hard court matches they have competed in. The head to head in those matches shows that the Greek player has been the dominant return player and Frances Tiafoe is someone who is comfortable on the hard courts, but far from consistent enough to put together a string of strong results.
Frances Tiafoe can be dangerous with his natural athleticism making him a player that can put together a strong set even when playing some of the better players on the Tour. However, his overall numbers on the hard courts have been average at best over the last few seasons and he has only reached one Quarter Final on the surface in 2021.
Even before this season, the American has been an inconsistent performer on the hard courts and his head to head with Stefanos Tsitsipas is a concern despite the win at Wimbledon. It might give Frances Tiafoe more belief, but Tsitsipas is a different performer on the hard courts and I think he is going to have a little too much for the American in this Second Round match.
In their previous hard court matches, Frances Tiafoe has held around 72% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 94% mark and it might be the difference maker on the day. This is a big mark to cover without a doubt, but Stefanos Tsitsipas might have enough to get over the mark and perhaps even match the margin of win when the Greek player beat Tiafoe here in Tokyo in 2017.
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: Two dominant wins to move through to the Third Round has underlined Naomi Osaka's favouritism to win the Gold Medal in her home Olympic Games on a surface in which she is the best WTA player in the world. You could be forgiven for forgetting that Naomi Osaka has not played since the First Round of the French Open, but a return to the hard courts and the chance to refresh mentally and physically has clearly come at a good time for the Japanese superstar.
She has barely been pushed so far in Tokyo, but I am sure Naomi Osaka will be the first to expect a much stronger challenge in the Third Round. Even then it is difficult to see anyone really troubling Naomi Osaka outside of a couple of names left in the draw, but the WTA Tour has long been fairly open with players capable of producing a big week at any time.
Naomi Osaka is the top hard court player in the world though and she has yet to drop her serve in the Tokyo Olympic tournament, while an aggressive return has seen her win 46% of the return points played in both matches. That has produced enough break points for Naomi Osaka to really dominate on the scoreboard and I do think there is going to be a lot of pressure on the lefty serve of Marketa Vondrousova despite the two wins the Czech player has put on the board.
The Second Round win was much easier than the three set win over Kiki Bertens in the First Round, but Marketa Vondrousova has had an inconsistent time on the hard courts over the last two seasons. The second serve is one that can be attacked by opponents and Marketa Vondrousova can sometimes be overwhelmed by the power coming against her which has been the case in some heavy losses on this surface to the likes of Aryna Sabalenka and Garbine Muguruza earlier this season.
Now she will have to deal with the immense power that Naomi Osaka can bring to the court and it will be a real challenge for Marketa Vondrousova to get into the return games she is playing. It only adds to the pressure when Osaka is ready to get on the front foot whenever she sees a second serve and ultimately I think this is a surface on which the Number 2 Seed can really push ahead with her aggressive brand of tennis.
Both wins produced so far this week have been by comfortable margins and I think Naomi Osaka is going to produce another one in the Third Round as she cover on her way through to the Quarter Finals.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: Early losses in the build up to Wimbledon meant Karolina Pliskova could fly under the radar at the third Grand Slam of the 2021 season. She took full advantage of being able to play without a lot of pressure by reaching the Final at Wimbledon and the only regret will be the very slow start made in the three set defeat to Ashleigh Barty.
The recent form had made it difficult for anyone outside of Karolina Pliskova's team to believe she was ready for such a run at Wimbledon, but she has backed it up by winning two matches at the Tokyo Olympics. The Czech player is now the favourite to reach the Quarter Final as she edges closer to the Medal positions in Tokyo, while it will also be a good chance for Pliskova to give herself another shot of confidence before the US Open begins.
Karolina Pliskova did not have the best early form on the hard courts in 2021, but she will at least avoid having to face Jessica Pegula in this tournament. The latter has gotten the better of Karolina Pliskova too many times already in 2021, while the Czech player has just been a little short of where she would expect to be in her return numbers.
That part of her game will be tested by Camila Giorgi who reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne in the build up to Wimbledon, but who has been in erratic form over the last twelve months. There is plenty of talent in the Giorgi racquet, but I am not always convinced that she is completely focused on her tennis and that has led to some inconsistent results, while her form on the hard courts in early 2021 has been less than impressive.
Camila Giorgi has a decent first serve which can make her dangerous, but the second serve is vulnerable and an over-aggressive return game can lead to a lot of unforced errors and easing the pressure on her opponent. It is certainly going to be a worry for her against the big Karolina Pliskova serve, while the head to head with this opponent is also going to be a mental obstacle for the Italian player to overcome.
She did beat Karolina Pliskova on the grass courts last month, but it is Karolina Pliskova who has won all four of their previous hard court matches. In those matches, Pliskova has dominated the return aspect of the matches against Camila Giorgi and she has produced plenty more break points than her Italian opponent and eventually broken down the game.
I do note that Karolina Pliskova has gotten a little more used to the kind of serving to expect from Camila Giorgi in those hard court matches and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this match too. There will be some rough moments for Pliskova to ride out considering how big and aggressive some of the tennis produced by Camila Giorgi can be, but I think the higher Ranked player can do that and she can eventually move through to the Quarter Final behind a good looking win.
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Both of these players have made comfortable progress through the first two Rounds of the Tokyo Olympics and I have to believe that both Belinda Bencic and Barbora Krejcikova can recognise an opportunity in front of them. The top half of the draw has already lost Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka and the winner of this Third Round match is going to be feeling confident of at least making it through to the Semi Final of the tournament and moving into a position to win a Medal.
There are still some dangerous player in the top half of the draw that have to be respected and neither of these players can afford to overlook the opponent across from the other side of the net in the Third Round. Comfortable wins in the first couple of Rounds should mean there are two confident players going onto the court, but Barbora Krejcikova is the right favourite as far as I am concerned.
The French Open Champion has been a solid hard court performer on the Singles Tour over the last two seasons and her numbers in 2021 have improved on those produced in 2020. Before the Tokyo Olympics got underway, Barbora Krejcikova had a good run at Wimbledon and she also won a hard court tournament at home in Prague, while a strong first serve has been backed up by an impressive return game.
Her hard court numbers are significantly stronger than the ones Belinda Bencic has produced in 2021 and I have long felt that the Swiss player has been something of an underachiever. That might be a surprising statement considering Bencic has been as high as World Number 4, but she has only reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam twice before in her career.
Both of those runs have come at the US Open, but the general hard court numbers have been pretty average and some way below the level that Barbora Krejcikova has produced on the surface. Belinda Bencic does have a decent first serve, but she has not been as convincing a return player as some of the other top names on the Tour and that has left her vulnerable at times.
Belinda Bencic has a losing record against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts since the start of the 2020 season and she is just 2-4 in those matches in 2021. Some of the losses have been particularly one-sided and that has largely been down to the poor return numbers produced in those matches, which is a concern when facing someone who can serve as well as Barbora Krejcikova.
The Swiss player has lost all four matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and Belinda Bencic has won 29% of return points played in those matches. A vulnerable second serve has also been heavily exploited in those defeats and I think Barbora Krejcikova will have too much for Bencic in this Third Round match as she keeps her winning run going through to the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Games: 10-7, + 2.94 Units (34 Units Staked, + 8.65% Yield)
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