The Tokyo Olympics Tennis tournament continues on Monday as we get into the Second Round of the tournament in both the Men's and Women's events.
The heat is still likely to play a huge part in the outcome of some of the matches being played, but the players have to try and focus on their tennis as they get their teeth into this event. Ashleigh Barty's defeat in the First Round will have just refocused some of the minds of the players looking to Medal at the Olympics and none of those still in the draw can take anything for granted.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: There are a number of firsts that Novak Djokovic is aiming for over the remainder of his career, but the chance to win a Golden Slam in the same calendar year is something that might cement his place as the best player to ever step on a tennis court. This is the last realistic chance for Novak Djokovic to become the first male player to complete the calendar Grand Slam with the addition of the Olympic Gold Medal and is the favourite to win this tournament as well as the US Open which will begin at the end of next month.
A comfortable First Round win has gotten the tournament going for Novak Djokovic, but it wasn't all plain-sailing as the incredibly hot conditions in Tokyo have made life difficult for all of the players in the draw. The World Number 1 has been joined by other voices to suggest the Tennis tournament should be played later in the day rather than the height of the heat, but it should not be an issue for Novak Djokovic on Monday as he goes out last on the main court.
This is the first hard court tournament Novak Djokovic has played since winning the Australian Open, but he has added the French Open and Wimbledon in the time between the first Grand Slam of the season and the Olympic Games. Over the last twelve months, Djokovic has held 87% of his hard court service games and broken in 28% of return games which sees him producing some of the best numbers on the surface and underlining his place as World Number 1.
It makes the task in front of Jan-Lennard Struff look very difficult and especially as he has lost all five previous matches against Novak Djokovic. The German won his First Round match pretty comfortably, but Jan-Lennard Struff has struggled for consistency on the hard courts over the last twelve months and particularly in the tournaments he has played in 2021.
Jan-Lennard Struff is going to need to serve incredibly well to put Novak Djokovic under pressure, but the previous head to heads between these players suggests the latter has a pretty good read of the Struff serve. The four previous hard court matches between the two have seen Novak Djokovic break serve in 43% of return games played and he has won almost half of the points played against the serve which is always going to put Jan-Lennard Struff under real pressure.
There has simply not been enough good returning from Jan-Lennard Struff to make up for that and I do think Novak Djokovic can break him down and move through relatively comfortably to the Third Round.
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: The face of the Tokyo Olympics was given the honour of lighting the Olympic cauldron and Naomi Osaka has insisted she is feeling much happier after a difficult couple of months. She withdraw in the French Open and skipped Wimbledon, but Osaka looked to be in great form in her First Round win and is expected to back that up in the Second Round.
After Ashleigh Barty's surprising defeat in the First Round, Naomi Osaka is not only the top Seed left in the draw but she has already established herself as the strongest hard court player on the WTA Tour. Winning the Australian Open underlined the point and Naomi Osaka should be the favourite to win the Gold Medal.
The serve is a potent weapon for Naomi Osaka, but over the last twelve months there has been an improvement in her return game on the hard courts which has made her a hugely successful player. Being aggressive puts the pressure on her opponents and I think Naomi Osaka has also become a stronger tactical player which means she is not just going for broke on every shot.
I do think Naomi Osaka can do the same to Viktorija Golubic, although the Swiss player is coming in off a strong Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. Viktorija Golubic has performed well on the hard courts earlier this season with a title win below the main WTA Tour, while also Qualifying for Lyon and Monterrey before finishing as Runners Up in both of those tournaments too.
The return is a key part of Viktorija Golubic's tennis, but I am not sure she is going to get much change from the Naomi Osaka serve and that is going to put the lower Ranked player under pressure. We saw in her defeat to Karolina Pliskova at Wimbledon that the power and big hitting can break through the Viktorija Golubic defences and Naomi Osaka is more than capable of doing that on the hard courts.
Ultimately Golubic does not have a major serve and it should mean the match is one that Naomi Osaka can dominate. She should be comfortable within the match in what Viktorija Golubic brings to the table, and I think it should see Naomi Osaka find the breaks of serve to cover this handicap mark set.
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Donna Vekic: Making a breakthrough in a Grand Slam has been a long time coming for Aryna Sabalenka, but there will be some regret she was not able to reach the Wimbledon Final having led the Semi Final by a set against Karolina Pliskova. It is another step in the development of one of the stars of the WTA Tour and Aryna Sabalenka is a confident hard court player that will be targeting a big run at the Olympic Games and the upcoming US Open.
The Belarusian has taken over from Victoria Azarenka as the top player from the nation and Aryna Sabalenka crushed Magda Linette in the First Round. That was a very encouraging start to the Tokyo Olympics, although the conditions for this tournament are far from ideal for all of the players competing.
Aryna Sabalenka has won a title on the hard courts in 2021 and she has had a couple of Quarter Final runs under her belt, while the numbers are steadily improving. The big first serve makes Sabalenka very dangerous and she is also an aggressive return player that can really get after her opponent's serve.
One criticism is that Aryna Sabalenka only has one gear and she can struggle to break the momentum when things begin to go against her, but a match against someone like Donna Vekic should be ideal for Sabalenka with both players looking to produce the big shots.
It has been a difficult year for Donna Vekic who has missed huge chunks of the Tour, and she is just 5-4 since returning at the French Open. A three set win over Caroline Garcia is the first hard court match Donna Vekic has played since the Australian Open, but this is a big step upwards in terms of opponent and the Croatian has struggled for consistency on this surface over the last twelve months.
Both players will be looking to attack any second serve they see, but I do think the recent form is going to give Aryna Sabalenka an edge in this Second Round match. Donna Vekic had won the first three matches between the pair, but the last of those was back in 2017 and Aryna Sabalenka showed how much she has improved by beating Vekic in their last meeting in San Jose in 2019.
In the two years since that match, Sabalenka is even stronger and I think she will find a way to break down Donna Vekic and eventually cover what is a wide handicap spread on paper. Aggressive returning should give Aryna Sabalenka the break points to get over the number though as long as the big first serve is working like it can do.
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: Home players might not have the same backing from the crowd as they would have done if the Tokyo Olympics had been played in front of the full stands and for some it is going to make life more difficult as they bid to beat higher Ranked players. That is the problem for Misaki Doi in this Second Round match, despite the fact she was a comfortable winner in the First Round.
Before the Olympic Games began, Misaki Doi had been struggling on the Tour and she has only produced a 5-15 record when she has faced an opponent Ranked inside the top 100. That is not very encouraging, while Doi's numbers have been pretty poor when playing those top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.
The serve is vulnerable and Misaki Doi has not been able to return as well as she would have liked which has added to the pressure within matches. That has led to some very heavy defeats on the hard courts and one of those came against Belinda Bencic who is the Second Round opponent she is going to be facing in this tournament.
Belinda Bencic's World Ranking feels a little artificial at Number 12 considering the inconsistent results and performances over the last several months. She did reach the Final of a grass court tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, but Bencic was beaten in the First Round there and over the last twelve months she is barely over 0.500 in terms of matches won, while the Swiss player currently holds an 8-6 record on the hard courts in 2021.
A run to the Final of a tournament in Adelaide is the best result of the year, but Belinda Bencic's general hard court performances have not been as strong as she would have liked and there have been too many early defeats. The serve can still be important for Belinda Bencic, but the last couple of seasons have seen her struggle on her return and she has the room to improve that aspect of her tennis which will see results improve.
Belinda Bencic will benefit from knowing she has gotten the better of Misaki Doi in their head to heads with a 3-0 win-loss record in her favour. One of those came earlier this year as I have mentioned above, although this should be closer if Misaki Doi is able to win the big points much more effectively than she did in that match in Adelaide.
Even then you would have to give Belinda Bencic a serious edge and I think she can work her way past one of the home hopes in the Tennis tournament in Tokyo. Belinda Bencic should have enough to cover the handicap mark on her way through to the Third Round as Misaki Doi's serve perhaps lets her down over the course of this match.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 7-4, + 4.30 Units (22 Units Staked, + 19.55% Yield)
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