The favourites France are out and another, Belgium, looked banged up which looks to be opening the door for the likes of Italy, Spain and England to pick up a major title in the next ten days.
However, there are nations like Denmark and Switzerland who will feel the European Championships have provided a number of upset winners over the years and they could become the latest to do that. Greece's success in 2004 is the stand out upset win, but the Danes of 1992 did the same and I do believe this current Denmark team are playing with momentum.
Ukraine and the Czech Republic may not be the trendy selections, but they are in the Quarter Finals now and from here who knows what may happen? With that in mind who is to say they can't go on and upset the odds and it should be fun to find out how the tournament will shake up.
The Quarter Final matches will be played on Friday and Saturday in four different time slots and in four different nations before all of the remaining contenders head to London for the end of the Euro 2020 Finals.
Friday 2nd July
Switzerland vs Spain Pick: Monday was one of the more stunning days of watching Knock Out Football anyone would have seen in a major international tournament.
Both Last 16 ties ended 3-3 in regulation and those extra minutes played by Switzerland and Spain could be telling in this Quarter Final. The Swiss in particularly are coming off an emotional Penalty Shoot Out win over France and have done considerably more travelling than most of the remaining teams in the Euro 2020 Finals and I do wonder if that is going to have an impact on them.
On Monday they came from 3-1 down to score deep into injury time and force Extra Time before holding favourites France in the extra period and winning the Shoot Out. It has been a long time since the Swiss won a Knock Out tie at a major international tournament, but all of that emotion will have likely taken something out of the tank for a team that has already surpassed all expectations by merely making the Quarter Final.
Spain had a different Last 16 experience as they blew a 3-1 comfortable lead over Croatia before having to pick themselves up and beat their opponents 5-3 in Extra Time. The recovery was impressive for a team that has started this tournament slowly, but looks to be peaking at the right time and beginning to make sure they convert the chances they are creating.
The Spanish have scored eight goals in their last two games inside ninety minutes and ten in total which makes them dangerous, although there is always the feeling that they lack a natural finisher who could make all of the difference for them. If they had a peak David Villa or Fernando Torres the feeling is that Spain would be the favourites, but they are hard to trust in the final third even if I do believe they will create plenty of chances in this one too.
I do give them the edge with a few more options littered through the squad to make sure they can freshen things up and I think that will make the difference.
Spain also look the more effective team in the final third and they are not allowing as many shots on goals as the Switzerland team they are opposing.
Will it be another thriller? Possibly, but the deeper thinking is that Spain will have too much and can find the goals to secure a victory inside the regulation time.
Belgium vs Italy Pick: Injuries to Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard have put their participation in this Quarter Final in doubt and it has led to Italy being set as the favourites to get past Belgium and reach the Euro 2020 Semi Final.
Before a ball had been kicked, Belgium would have been a strong favourite to see off Italy, but the performances in this tournament as well as those injuries have just shifted the momentum.
Belgium have struggled in their games against Denmark and Portugal to create chances and they were perhaps fortunate to win both games. That is a little concerning for a squad that will likely see anything other than winning this tournament as a disappointment, but Belgium have found a way to keep clean sheets in three of their four games at Euro 2020 despite some of those opportunities being allowed.
They can't keep getting out of a jam though and Belgium are going to be challenged by an Italian team that have looked good in the tournament even if they struggled in the Last 16 against Austria. On another night they may have been beaten with some close VAR calls going against the underdog, but Italy have confidence in their system and will feel they are secure enough defensively to at least contain a Belgium team that may be without their top two creative forces.
Italy have been winning a lot of matches, but they have rarely competed with a team as good as Belgium though and that makes this a different challenge. They did top their last Nations League Group over Holland, Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina, but Italy scored just seven goals in six Group games, while the first edition of the Nations League alongside Portugal and Poland saw Italy score two goals in four Group games and I think that may be seen in this Quarter Final.
I don't think Roberto Mancini's team will take too many chances to leave spaces for Belgium to exploit and I can see both teams looking to control the midfield. It may lead to a match with little real opportunities in the final third and something special could be required to break the deadlock between the teams.
Goals were hard to find in the Italy and Belgium Last 16 ties and I think that may be the case in this one too. An early strike changes the entire complexion of the Quarter Final and may lead to more spaces, but I think both Roberto Mancini and Roberto Martinez may be looking to make sure Italy and Belgium are hard to break down and my feeling is that a chess game type of fixture may be played out with so much on the line.
Saturday 3rd July
Czech Republic vs Denmark Pick: Some players have already voiced their frustrations at a tournament played across the continent and the amount of travelling they have had to do as well as the difficulties it has presented for fans.
Wales' Chris Gunter made the point in the aftermath of their defeat to Denmark in Amsterdam and the Czech Republic players have made their feelings clear about having to travel to Baku for this Quarter Final.
They have already played in Glasgow (twice), London and Budapest and you do have to wonder what kind of hindrance that is going to be for the Czech Republic. At least Denmark got to play three games at home before crushing Wales in Amsterdam and they have also had an extra day to prepare for this Quarter Final and I do think that gives The Danes an edge in what should be a competitive last eight tie.
Both teams are playing with momentum, but Denmark look to be in a groove and have been considered a dark horse before the Euro 2020 Finals began. They have the added motivation of playing for Christian Eriksen and Denmark have been creating a lot more chances than the Czech Republic in their four tournament games, while also being a little more convincing defensively.
You have to believe that will show up in this Quarter Final, although pressure intensifies on players as they begin to feel there is a big opportunity in front of them. The Euro 2020 Finals looks wide open with eight teams left and both Denmark and the Czech Republic will feel they can match some of the teams of their past with a run to the Final and potentially winning this tournament.
However, I do think Denmark have been the superior of these two teams in the Finals so far and they can battle past the Czech Republic to reach the last four.
Ukraine vs England Pick: There was an euphoria around England after the win over Germany in the Last 16, but Gareth Southgate will know there is still plenty of hard work to do with the expectations growing around this team.
Being in the weaker half of the draw is one benefit, having the Semi Final and Final at Wembley Stadium another, while the biggest threat in the draw in France are already eliminated. Belgium look bruised before their own Quarter Final and England fans are expectant after coming so close to reaching the World Cup Final in 2018.
There are a couple of new challenges for the players and the first of those is having to travel away from England for this Quarter Final which is set to be played in Rome. For the first time at Euro 2020, England will likely feel an 'away crowd' with the Ukrainians likely going to be well supported.
Ukraine have done well to reach the Quarter Final, but they were perhaps fortunate to have gotten out of the Group Stage and looked to be second best against Sweden for large parts of that Last 16 tie. A sending off changed the momentum in Extra Time, but even then Ukraine struggled to create great opportunities and I do think they will find it very difficult to break down this England team.
They do have players that can cause problems with special goals being a part of the tournament so far, but Ukraine do struggle for goals and this England team have kept clean sheets throughout the tournament. England have protected Jordan Pickford and the feeling is that this Quarter Final will be similar to the one England won against Sweden at the World Cup in 2018.
There is still a feeling that England do not create enough chances with the attacking talent they have, but they are taking a pragmatic approach to the Euro 2020 tournament and it has worked so far. Defensively they have been very sound and I think that will be the base from which England will try and secure another major tournament Semi Final which will be back at home.
Dealing with crosses will be a challenge for England, but they have the players who can manage the situation and Ukraine's final third issues are a problem for Andriy Shevchenko. They have scored six goals in the tournament, but Ukraine have not been creating a lot of good chances and backing England to win with a clean sheet is a decent shout at odds against.
MY PICKS: Spain to Win & Over 1 Total Goal @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium-Italy Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
England Win to Nil @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Last 16: 2-6, - 8.30 Units (16 Units Staked, - 51.88% Yield)
Group Stage: 21-15, + 11.96 Units (71 Units Staked, + 16.85% Yield)
Match Day 3: 9-3, + 12.40 Units (23 Units Staked, + 53.91% Yield)
Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)
Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment