We are down to the business end of the Tokyo Olympics as far as the Tennis tournament goes and over the weekend the Medals will be handed out.
The Women's Gold and Bronze Medal matches have been put together, while the Men's line up will be completed on Friday.
Karen Khachanov v Pablo Carreno Busta: Three of the four players left in the Men's draw are going to be taking home a Medal from the Olympic Games, but first they get to play for the opportunity to guarantee a Medal. The first Semi Final in Tokyo sees two players who have flown under the radar make their way through the bottom half of the draw and you would have to say that the winner of this Semi Final is likely going to head into the Gold Medal match as a significant underdog.
That is a worry for another day for Karen Khachanov and Pablo Carreno Busta as they look to take their place in the Final on Sunday and both players will feel pretty good about their chances having worked their way through four matches here.
Karen Khachanov has backed up a strong performance at Wimbledon and he is a very confident hard court player, although the relatively slower conditions in Tokyo are perhaps going to favour Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has previously reached the US Open Semi Final and is a more confident hard court player than some may assume because of his nationality, but Pablo Carreno Busta has shown time and again that he can't be underestimated on this surface.
His numbers are far from eye-catching, but you have to credit Pablo Carreno Busta for being able to play his best tennis at critical points within matches. Pablo Carreno Busta is making full use of his serve this week and his win over Daniil Medvedev in the Quarter Final was particularly impressive, although the margins have been tight and that is going to be encouraging for the next Russian he is going to face in this tournament.
A huge amount of time has been spent on court by Karen Khachanov over the last two Rounds and it has been incredibly hot in Tokyo which does make you wonder if it is going to be a telling factor in this Semi Final. However, Pablo Carreno Busta has been forced to dig plenty deep in his own matches and he is now going to have to face up to the Karen Khachanov serve which has been a huge part of the successes the Russian player has had in the event.
Karen Khachanov has been serving pretty big throughout the tournament and that is huge for him if he is going to reach the Gold Medal match. It has helped him get his teeth into the return games and I think it may give Khachanov the slightest of advantages in this match.
Pablo Carreno Busta won their sole meeting in 2021, although that came on a clay court and that may be a surface in which the Spaniard would be favoured. The last two hard court matches have been won by Karen Khachanov though and he has held 84% of the service games played against Pablo Carreno Busta compared with an 80% mark for the latter.
Last year Karen Khachanov beat Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets in Cincinnati, but that is a much faster surface than the one they have seemingly been playing on in Tokyo. I honestly don't think there will be much between the players, but Karen Khachanov has been producing the higher level at this tournament of the two and having the confidence of knowing he has won the last two times the players have met on a hard court may give the underdog enough to come through with another victory.
Alexander Zverev + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: He is making history in each passing week, but the run to the Olympic Games Semi Final has been incredibly straight-forward for Novak Djokovic and just underlines how difficult it is going to be to stop the World Number completing the Golden Slam. He will become the first men's player to do that and only the second tennis player to ever to do that, but Novak Djokovic is someone who wants to cement his legacy in the sport and chasing records motivates him.
Novak Djokovic has dropped just seventeen games in his four wins in Tokyo and he needed a little over an hour to end the home hopes of a Tennis Medal. The numbers over the first four matches are incredible and Novak Djokovic has hammered every opponent he has played, while he has only dropped his serve once in the four matches completed.
The serve may still have room for improvement, but Novak Djokovic is returning at such a high level that opponents are feeling the pressure every time they step up to the line. He has broken at least three times in each match played in the tournament and Novak Djokovic has won over 50% of the return points played in three of the four matches.
All of this points to a very difficult challenge for Alexander Zverev, although the German is the only player that has come close to matching the intensity and consistency of the World Number 1. However, Alexander Zverev does have a 2-6 head to head record against Novak Djokovic and he has lost both matches played against him this year and both of those have come on the hard courts.
The defeat at the Australian Open was competitive though and Alexander Zverev has given Novak Djokovic more to think about than just about anybody playing on the Tour over the last twelve months. That will be encouraging, while Alexander Zverev has a massive serve that can at least prevent Novak Djokovic from dominating the return games to the same standard he has in this tournament and for much of the last few seasons on the Tour.
Playing the big points more effectively is important for Alexander Zverev if he is going to have any chance of the upset, but he does produce enough from the serve to expect him to give Novak Djokovic the most to think about in this tournament so far. In their match at the Australian Open, Alexander Zverev actually created more break point chances than Novak Djokovic and it is something that he has to build upon if he is going to find a way to reach the Gold Medal match and end the dreams of the World Number 1.
Alexander Zverev has won the first set in each of the last two matches against Novak Djokovic on a hard court, but he would not have covered with this start in either as the World Number 1 rallied. He is in fine form in this tournament, but even then it is difficult to imagine the overall upset will be completed, although I do think the numbers in their two matches in 2021 suggests the German can keep this one close with the level he has shown.
It is very difficult to oppose Novak Djokovic who is clearly the best player in the world, but I am looking for Alexander Zverev to offer the strongest challenge that the World Number 1 has faced in Tokyo. Serving at his best is key for Zverev, but if he can do that he can move into a position to keep this match very close and I will back him with the start offered.
MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev + 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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