Day 6 of Wimbledon sees the Fourth Round and second week of the tournament finalised, although it could be a much better day all in all.
Hopefully the Tennis is completed and we will get the final Manic Monday at this Grand Slam in a couple of days time, although it is all weather permitting.
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Nick Krygios over 41.5 games: There has been very little tennis played by Nick Kyrgios over the last sixteen months and it has been a long time since he left Australia to compete, but there has been an element of freedom about his performances so far. I do think Nick Kyrgios arrived in London with very little expectation, but he has a big game that is well suited to the grass courts and that has made him dangerous.
He needed five sets to get past Ugo Humbert in the First Round, but things were much simpler for Nick Kyrgios in the Second Round and that should mean he has plenty left in the tank. At the Australian Open Kyrgios reached the Third Round and blew a 2-0 lead in sets over Dominic Thiem before exiting the tournament and I think this is a very dangerous match for Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The serve is a massive weapon for Nick Kyrgios and I think that is something that will always give him a chance in matches on the grass courts. He has won big matches at Wimbledon and I do think Nick Kyrgios will love to perform in front of the relatively big crowds back on the showcase courts in this Third Round match as he looks to make the second week at Wimbledon once again.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is anything but a pushover though and he has reached the Final in Stuttgart and the Semi Final in Halle which underlines his own ability on the grass. Like his opponent, Felix Auger-Aliassime has a very big serve from which he can build his entire tennis on this surface and it has been key to his runs before Wimbledon having beaten Roger Federer and held 92% of the service games he has played.
Even in this tournament, Felix Auger-Aliassime has dropped a single set and there will be further confidence from the fact he has beaten Nick Kyrgios on a grass court before. That came at Queens Club in 2019, but it was a tight, serve dominated match with a single break from two break points secured by the Canadian over three sets and I can see tie-breakers being very important in this Third Round match too.
Neither player is the most consistent returner on the Tour and those numbers are even tougher for them on the grass courts when the serve is such a big weapon for so many on the Tour. With Nick Kyrgios and Felix Auger-Aliassime going up to the line, I am anticipating a lot of quick service games and long sets in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.
They produced 41 games in three sets when meeting at Queens Club two years ago and I think this match will go over this total games line as long as both are able to win at one set each. One concern is that Felix Auger-Aliassime seems to lose heart in losses at Grand Slams and can fall away, but his serve and performances on the grass over the last month should keep him focused while an entertainer like Nick Kyrgios is unlikely to go away quietly in a match like this one.
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Twice before has Alexander Zverev reached the Final of the grass court tournament in Halle, but he has yet to really have the kind of impact at Wimbledon as he would have wanted. A surprising First Round loss two years ago would have hurt, but since then Alexander Zverev has begun to produce much stronger results at the Grand Slam level and his early wins here suggests he is feeling pretty good about where his tennis is at this moment in time.
Comfortable wins without dropping a set is exactly what the doctor would have ordered for Alexander Zverev who can be guilty of making life very difficult early in the Grand Slams and thus having little left to give at the business end of those Slams. With that in mind his early wins here will be welcomed and Alexander Zverev is someone who has the game that should translate very well on the surface.
While his path to the Third Round has been comfortable, Taylor Fritz has been made to work hard having already played nine sets in his two wins in the Wimbledon tournament. The American needed five sets to get past compatriot Steve Johnson in the Second Round, but a big first serve can make Taylor Fritz dangerous.
Two years ago he won a title on the grass courts of Eastbourne to suggest that Taylor Fritz can be effective on this surface, although it is the first time that Fritz has made it through to the Third Round at Wimbledon.
The key to the match for Taylor Fritz is making sure he serves well and at least tries to put Alexander Zverev under pressure, especially as the latter has had one or two problems getting to grips with the return of serve on the grass. That may be the case, but Alexander Zverev will think the same of the Fritz return of serve and his first two performances at Wimbledon will be hugely encouraging for the higher Seeded player.
It is not the first time these two have met at Wimbledon- the first time was in 2018 when Alexander Zverev had to come from 2-1 down in sets to win in five sets in the Second Round. The Zverev return proved to be effective on the day with five breaks of serve compared to a single one for Taylor Fritz and the last two sets were fairly routine for Zverev.
Both players have improved since then, but I do think Alexander Zverev is likely to have the better of the match with his stronger ability on the return perhaps making the difference. Potential fatigue could also be a factor going against Taylor Fritz in this Third Round match and Alexander Zverev can cover a similar number he managed to do against Tennys Sandgren in the Second Round.
Roger Federer - 1.5 sets v Cameron Norrie: You can always see the signs of an improving player and Cameron Norrie certainly fits the bill with a strong year behind him and numbers backing up some of the successes he has had. A surprising campaign on the clay courts was rewarded with a match against Rafael Nadal at the French Open and now Cameron Norrie gets an opportunity to face Roger Federer on the grass courts of Wimbledon.
Before this season, Cameron Norrie had shown very little appetite for the grass courts, but he came into this portion of the Tour in good form and backed that up by reaching the Queens Final last month. His two wins in the main draw at Wimbledon have been impressive with Cameron Norrie dropping a single set to Lucas Pouille and Alex Bolt and I do think the lefty will believe he can win this match.
Belief is very important for players when they take on the legends of the Tour that are still playing at a high level, and especially when those said legends are perhaps not in top form. That is the case for Roger Federer despite his straight sets win in the Second Round against Richard Gasquet and the Swiss superstar knows he has to find another level to have a prolonged stay in this tournament.
Much of this Third Round match is going to depend on the Roger Federer serve and whether he can use that shot to build pressure on a less experienced player. Before the tournament begun, Federer did hold 88% of the service games played on the grass, but the eight time Wimbledon Champion is some way below his usual percentage of points won behind the serve and this is going to be a key for him.
He is facing an opponent in Cameron Norrie who can be a little inconsistent on the return, although one that is coming off an impressive straight sets win over Alex Bolt. The performance on the return was very good in the Second Round, but Norrie has struggled to really impose himself on this part of his game and that will be encouragement for Roger Federer fans.
It is the Cameron Norrie serve that has been highly effective on the grass over the last month and the numbers are a considerable improvement on previous years. The British player will receive plenty of support on Centre Court on Day 6 at the tournament and he does have two wins over top 25 Ranked opponents on the grass already this season, but this is a tough mental obstacle to overcome when facing someone with the history Roger Federer has.
I am expecting Cameron Norrie to play his part and I think he is playing well enough to challenge Roger Federer, but doing so for three hours on Centre Court may be too much to ask of him at this stage of his career. I do see a developing player that looks to be improving on all surfaces, but Federer may end up having a bit too much know-how and experience at key moments in the match and can work his way to a three or, more likely, four set win.
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: A former Wimbledon Finalist takes on an opponent who has an affinity for the grass courts and who will arguably be the favourite to reach the Wimbledon Final from the bottom half of the Men's draw. The veteran is Marin Cilic, but the higher Seeded younger man is Daniil Medvedev in what looks like being a really good match for the fans lucky enough to see it live.
Both players have had a single dip in their two wins so far this week, but for the main part Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev have looked very comfortable in the tournament and on this surface. While it may not be everyone's cup of tea, the grass courts suit both games of these two tennis players and I think that does make it more intriguing.
Marin Cilic is not the player he once was and the former Grand Slam Champion has had an inconsistent year with his numbers declining from his peak. That is most noticeable on the return of serve, but Cilic does come into the Wimbledon tournament having won the title in Stuttgart and followed that up with a decent run at Queens Club.
The Croatian has produced some eye-catching numbers in his wins on the grass so far this season and the return of serve has been more effective than we have seen for some time.
However, he is going to be facing a confident player in Daniil Medvedev who has dropped a single set in the tournament and who won the title in Mallorca. The Russian has made it clear that he has always been a big fan of playing on the grass and a powerful serve is going to be important for Daniil Medvedev to try and keep Marin Cilic at bay.
I think he is capable of doing that, while Daniil Medvedev has been far more effective on the return of serve than Marin Cilic over the last month even though both have produced some very positive results. Where Marin Cilic has broken in 20% of return games on the grass and won 39% of the points played on the return, Daniil Medvedev has broken in 32% of the return games played and won 42% of the return points played.
My expectation is that difference in quality and efficiency on the return will eventually prove to be the key to the outcome of a good looking Third Round match. Both players have a strong serve that will give them confidence to compete, but Daniil Mevdevev is more capable of finding a couple of big returns to get into rallies and break down the veteran Marin Cilic and I think that is the way the match will end up in his favour.
Their sole previous match came on a hard court in Washington in 2019 and it was won by Daniil Medvedev in a tight encounter where break points were hard to find. Ultimately the Russian found the break he needed and did not offer out a single break point to Marin Cilic and I think Daniil Medvedev will find the two or three breaks of serve needed to secure the win and the cover of this handicap mark.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Nick Kyrgios Over 41.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Aljaz Bedene Over 35.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kaja Juvan + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 42-32, + 12.22 Units (148 Units Staked, + 8.26% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment