After a strong Wimbledon to bounce back somewhat from what has been a disappointing start to the 2021 season for the Tennis Picks.
I decided that the next tournament of note would be the Olympic Games Tennis Tournament before the move onto the North American hard courts in the build up for the US Open. There should be plenty of motivation for players to produce their best tennis back on the hard courts with the chance to Medal for their country, but there is also the move from the clay and grass courts to consider with this being the first hard court event of note since the Miami Masters back in March.
The First Round begins on Saturday which is Day 1 of the tournament and the Tennis event will run through the week. I will have another thread up for the Sunday matches, but I am looking for these selections to get the tournament off to a good start and build on the successes from Wimbledon.
Heather Watson - 2.5 games v Anna Lena Friedsam: It might be a year later than planned, some of the big names might have opted out of travelling, and the stands are going to be empty, but the Tokyo Olympics have gotten underway. The Tennis tournament is perhaps not one of the more popular portions of the Olympic Games, but any time an athlete can win a Gold Medal it is going to be very easy to be motivated.
Withdrawals in the women's draw means the run to the Gold Medal is perhaps not as filled with obstacles as the Grand Slam tournaments have been, but even then I would imagine there are plenty of players who believe they can win this event. Big name players have won the Gold Medal since the return of Tennis to the Olympic Games in 1988, but the likes of Elena Dementieva and Monica Puig have also won the Gold Medal but the former retired without a Grand Slam success and the latter has not really reached the heights of Rio again.
Those wins should offer encouragement to Anna Lena Friedsam and Heather Watson who meet in the First Round, although it would be a massive surprise if either was involved in the Medal shake up at the end of this week.
You can only take things one match at a time and I do think both players involved in this First Round match will be confident they can progress to the Second Round. Heather Watson has really struggled over the last twelve months, but Anna Lena Friedsam has not been much better despite largely taking on lower Ranked players and I do think this will be a competitive match.
Both players have terrible 3-6 records on the hard courts so far in 2021 and will be heading into another set of hard court tournaments in preparation for the US Open which begins later next month. However, those two records are vastly different in terms of the quality of opponent with Friedsam only playing one player inside the top 100 so far on this surface, while Heather Watson has played five top 100 Ranked players.
The second serve of both players is vulnerable and neither Friedsam nor Watson have returned as well as they would have liked on the surface. I expect both to have success returning in this one considering the serve they are facing, but Heather Watson might have the superior first serve and that could see the match swing in her favour after a relatively disappointing grass court season.
Two years ago Heather Watson beat Anna Lena Friedsam in straight sets on the hard courts in North America and I do think she can do the same here in Tokyo. It is going to be a hot day which may make it tough for the players, but Heather Watson should have enough to earn a victory and a cover of this handicap mark on her way through to the Second Round.
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: It is perhaps not a major surprise that Maria Sakkari had a disappointing Wimbledon hot on the heels of her run at the French Open.
At Roland Garros, Maria Sakkari reached the Semi Final where she was eventually beaten 9-7 in the final set by Barbora Krejcikova, the eventual French Open Champion. The Greek player will have felt she had enough chances to beat Krejcikova in that Semi Final and there will have been some regret felt which can be very difficult to overcome on a Tour where players are expected to move on swiftly.
Moving back onto the hard courts may not be a bad thing for Maria Sakkari who has shown improvement on this surface in recent seasons and who had some very strong results on the surface earlier this season. Another tight loss saw Sakkari beaten in the Semi Final of the Miami Masters and she has reached three Semi Finals on the hard courts already this season which should see her go into this Olympic draw feeling pretty confident.
The serve is an important weapon for Maria Sakkari and she is also being much more effective on the return which has made her dangerous on the hard courts. However, one of her losses on the surface has come at the hands of Anett Kontaveit as these two players meet for the tenth time on the professional Tour.
The Estonian beat Sakkari in a Champions Tie-Breaker at the Grampians Trophy in the Semi Final, but it is the latter who will feel like she deserved more from that match. It does mean Anett Kontaveit has won the last two hard court meetings between these players and they have split the six hard court meetings 3-3, but Maria Sakkari will feel she has been the stronger player more often than not and it is about taking the chances being created and playing the big points stronger than she has in those hard court matches.
Anett Kontaveit is also coming in off a disappointing Wimbledon where she was beaten in the First Round days after reaching the Eastbourne Final. Like her opponent in the First Round, Kontaveit has played well on the hard courts and she has produced similar numbers to Maria Sakkari with strong serving backed up by aggressive returning.
It makes it feel like a match that could easily go the distance, but their head to head matches on the hard courts has seen Maria Sakkari look the more likely to create break point chances. That returning edge may see her get past a tough opponent in the First Round and Maria Sakkari can just about cover this mark on her way to the Second Round.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Alexander Bublik: A Quarter Final run at the French Open and a Fourth Round run at Wimbledon sandwiching another title win would be a pretty solid run for most professional Tennis players, but the World Number 2 Daniil Medvedev may feel he has come up a little short. The defeat at the French Open was perhaps more predictable, but an irritated Medvedev blew a 2-1 lead over Hubert Hurkacz at Wimbledon on a surface he will feel he should be going further in the draw than those tournaments on the clay courts.
The Russian will be operating under a different flag at the Olympic Games, but the chance to win a Gold Medal is still a big deal and the tournament being played on the hard courts should benefit Daniil Medvedev. He reached the Australian Open Final earlier this season and Daniil Medvedev has also reached the Final at the US Open, while he has also made it clear that the hard courts are his favourite surface.
His numbers on this surface from the 2019 season to now are as good as any other ATP player on the Tour and that is hugely encouraging for the World Number 2. Daniil Medvedev will certainly be amongst the favourites in this tournament as well as the upcoming Masters and Grand Slam events in North America and this is a player who has not only served really well on the hard courts, but also been one of the more effective return players.
That will be encouraging ahead of this match against Alexander Bublik who has been in solid form over the last twelve months, but also a touch inconsistent. Alexander Bublik has reached the Final of a couple of hard court events already this season, but even his numbers underline the inconsistency I have written about and I think that is a problem for the Kazakhstani player when going up against someone as good as Daniil Medvedev.
A confidence booster for Alexander Bublik is that he does have a 2-1 win-loss record against top ten players on the hard courts in 2021, although the numbers have been pretty tight. He is going to need to serve really well if he is going to get the better of Daniil Medvedev though and the head to head is not as encouraging as his record against top ten players.
Daniil Medvedev has won all three previous matches between the players including a straight sets win at the French Open a couple of months ago. The two hard court meetings came back in 2016 and both of these players will feel they are much improved since those days, although it is Daniil Medvedev that has played at a consistently higher level than Alexander Bublik.
In their previous matches, the World Number 2 has a significant advantage when it comes to the return performances and I think that may be the case in Tokyo too. This is a big handicap mark and especially if Alexander Bublik serves at his best level, but I think Daniil Medvedev is a very strong return player on the hard courts and that is where he can start to exert plenty of pressure and break down an opponent who can throw in a couple of erratic service games when feeling he needs to go for more than what he is comfortable with.
The big handicap mark is one that Daniil Medvedev is more than capable of covering and I think he will find the breaks of serve to do that.
Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 games v Tommy Paul: A surprising run at the Australian Open was only ended by Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final, but Aslan Karatsev dealt with his new found fame by winning the title in Dubai on the hard courts after the first Grand Slam of the season was in the books. The move onto the clay and grass courts has seen a more mixed set of results being produced by Aslan Karatsev, but he will be looking to build some momentum again now the Tour has moved back onto the hard courts.
If the Olympic Games had taken place twelve months ago in their original spot in the sporting calendar, Aslan Karatsev is unlikely to have taken part. That underlines the kind of progress and results the Russian player has produced over the last twelve months and he will certainly believe there is still more to come.
The serve is an important weapon for Karatsev, but he is also very dangerous when it comes to the returning part of the match and that is where he has really made hay on this surface. In 2020 Aslan Karatsev was largely successful on the Challenger Tour, but his performances in the early hard court tournaments has seen him build on that and he is going to be able to put some pressure on Tommy Paul.
His American opponent in the First Round has not played since the French Open, although Tommy Paul is going to feel similar to Aslan Karatsev in being much happier getting back onto the hard courts. Ultimately Tommy Paul has not been as consistent as Karatsev on this surface and a 5-6 record on the hard courts in 2021 underlines the point.
Tommy Paul's serve has been a little more vulnerable than he would like and I think that is something that will encourage an aggressive Aslan Karatsev to try and get after the return and put his opponent under immense pressure. The problem for Paul has been the fact that his serve is a very important part of his tennis on the hard courts and he has not been able to get his teeth into return games to make up for the vulnerability shown on the serve.
It should give Aslan Karatsev a chance to get on top of this match and find the breaks of serve needed in the First Round to progress in the draw and also cover this handicap mark. Things might be dicey at times if Karatsev throws in a couple of sub-par service games, but I think his pressure on the return of serve will be the key to the outcome of the match and Aslan Karatsev can move through with at least one more break of serve in each set than Tommy Paul.
MY PICKS: Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Viktorija Golubic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
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