The Ladies Final has largely disappointed over the last several years at Wimbledon, but that was not the case on Saturday as Ashleigh Barty came through in three sets against Karolina Pliskova.
Nerves hurt Pliskova and I do wonder if they will play a part for Matteo Berrettini as he gets set to play his first ever Grand Slam Final. He is facing an experienced opponent in Novak Djokovic who is clearly the best player in the world, but the Men's Final has proven to be very entertaining in recent times and the hope is that there will be another one on Sunday.
Personally I am not quite so sure as you will be able to read below.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: The 2021 Wimbledon Men's Final will be competed by one player with a vast amount of experience and one looking to win his maiden Grand Slam title.
Novak Djokovic is unsurprisingly the favourite having won his last twenty matches at Wimbledon, but Matteo Berrettini will arrive in the Final with a heap of confidence behind him having won the Queens title before Wimbledon began. He has been largely untroubled in the tournament so far too, but Novak Djokovic can say the same and he has won the last two Grand Slam tournaments that have been played and is looking to match his great rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal at twenty Majors won.
That will place some pressure on Djokovic's shoulders, but he is vastly experienced and showed in his Semi Final win that he is able to play the big points really well against the upstarts of the Tour who are looking to take their place amongst the elite. The win over Denis Shapovalov should really work out well for Novak Djokovic as he will have felt some of the pace that is going to be coming out of the Matteo Berrettini racquet, while his previous head to head wins over the Italian will only add to the confidence the World Number 1 is usually going to feel.
The serve is going to be a key weapon for both players, but you really have to believe that Matteo Berrettini will need the first serve to be working from the off to have a chance. It has been a potent weapon for him throughout the tournament, but Matteo Berrettini may be the first to admit that he has not played a return player of the quality of Novak Djokovic and he was challenged by Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Quarter Final before finally edging past the young Canadian.
Novak Djokovic has been serving incredibly well in the tournament himself and it is an underrated part of his game on the faster surfaces. I expect it will be a serve that makes it tough for Matteo Berrettini to get into the return games as often as he did in other matches at Wimbledon, while the pressure coming from the Novak Djokovic return is likely going to wear on an inexperienced, younger player.
Matteo Berrettini has been incredibly difficult to break on the grass and that is not a massive surprise when you think of the huge first serve he possesses that can get him out of troubling moments. However, he has been broken in 33% of his service games played against Novak Djokovic and I do think that the return of serve is going to be the key to the outcome of the match with a significant edge being given to the World Number 1.
While Novak Djokovic has had some successes getting into the Matteo Berrettini service games, the Italian has broken just once in six sets competed against Djokovic.
This is a big spread for Novak Djokovic to cover if Matteo Berrettini is serving at the absolute top of his game, but I think anything less than that will see enough returns being made to wear down the younger player. Italy will be looking for a double in London on Sunday, but I think Novak Djokovic will have too much and force fans to hope for better later in the day.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 62-51, + 8.68 Units (226 Units Staked, + 3.84% Yield)
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